Newbie 952 - Murder on Newbie Street! (GAME OVER)

For Newbie Games, which have a set format and experienced moderators. Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #75 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 10:38 am

Post by Sworddancer9034 »

Sorry for the double post, computer problems and all that jazz.
Llamarble wrote:Since he has enough posts with content and seems to be scumhunting but has presented a few arguments I've felt were a little weak, I'm going to do an ISO on Sworddancer. I'll take the angle "why mafia would do the things he did" for the most part. It's possible he's just scumhunting and trying to produce discussion, but I want to look at him a little more closely.
Yeah, scumhunting and producing discussion was what I was doing. Since we were very early into the game at that time (and still are) I have very little information to work with, so of course some of my arguments aren't going to be too strong. The same goes for your arguments so far.
His first post answers Ex's intro questions and votes Silent.
I like to be on the majority's side, even if we end up doing really badly.
bothered me a little, as it seems carefully constructed to buddy the group and make a statement that he's not mafia. That said, it's not an awkward wording or anything to work that meaning in, so he might just be honest here. His vote for Silent after Silent's statement that he's only played a single game might have been a vote for a newbie likely to get himself into trouble/defend badly.
Nope, I really do just like being one the side with more people on it. There are other reasons to, but that is the main one. For example, I also like to try to see through manipulation rather than create it. Both the town and scum have different puzzles to solve, and I find town's puzzle to be funner.

Also, when I said "I like to be on the majority's side, even if we end up doing really badly." I wasn't referring to just us when I said "we", I was referring to all towns that I have been in.

My RVS vote on Silent was. . . well. . . random, and nothing more. Also, Silent has been in a game, I think that is enough to understand a simple thing like the RVS. Also, don't just assume that all newbies are town, they can be scum, to, so if he were to break down and was scum then wouldn't that be a good thing?
In his next post he moves his vote to Damon, who already has a vote from smash and seems to be lurking. This might have been hoping to make a policy lynch go through more easily. Says he likes my nitpicking (could be a bit of buddying, or just encouraging people to scumhunt) and tells me not to be apologetic when hunting, which makes sense.
If you will read a bit father than that, you would see that my vote on him was to try to encourage him to get into the game. Also, even if I was scum, do you really think that I would try to push a policy lynch on someone so early in the Day? With my vote that was only the second one?

The nitpicking thing. . . the nitpicking thing. . . Okay, for one, I didn't say I liked your nitpicking in persific, I just said I liked nitpicking in the RVS. I said this because, as I said earlier, I feel nitpicking is a good way to start things out. You were nitpicking, though, and I did like that, but it wasn't really buddying.

After I request somebody bring Damon down from L-1, he does so and explains that his vote was there in the first place to try and get him to talk. Also says "scum might hammer, which would be bad." I'd be more worried about a Townie quickhammering without knowing any better as we'd probably have to lynch them next round and then we'd really be in trouble. Could be following directions and trying to look protown after I say someone should unvote. His FoS at Tomato seems warranted by the dubious L-1 move, but it could be that he's scum pretending to scumhunt and so is fishing for any opportunities to look like he's contributing.
Okay, so you did know that I was voting him to try to get him into this game? If so, why did you even waste time with that argument in your last paragraph?

Read my last post and you can see why I said "scum might hammer, which would be bad".

*I read the rest of this paragraph*

fbhfdsnkjsjhnksnskjlkfdsfsswhaaaaaaaaat?

Are you kidding me? I'm almost a little offended here. I might have just unvoted Damon and followed your directions so to look more protown you say? Okay, I'm sorry that I didn't want someone to be quicklynched. Next time someone is at L_1 within less than 48 hours of the start of the game I'll make sure to keep my vote on them. Next time someone puts someone on L_1 this early in the game I'll make sure not to call them out on it also. I mean, really.

Also, has anyone noticed that Llamarble is attacking me based off of something that he could literaly attack anyone with? Basically, he's stating that I
might
just be trying to look like I'm contributing, but really, couldn't you say that about
anyone
? I mean, couldn't you just look at anyone and say: "Hey, he
could
be just trying to look like he's contributing!" Now I know you could say that you pointed me out because you felt my case was weak, but really, at this point in the game, so is everyone's.When you think about it like that, his argument here isn't really going to get us anywhere.
Asks Silent and Tomato why they got on wagons. A good question. Asks Silent why he thought there was a wagon on him. This seems too obvious to be a legitimate question; Sword himself placed the first vote on Silent, which Hayl wagoned onto, explicitly stating she was making a bandwagon vote. Sword unvoted before Silent's post, and apparently Silent failed to notice. This seems like more fishing for an opportunity to contribute. The rest of the post makes it sound like he legitimately forgot about his original vote, but even if he did it's still just Silent getting confused and making a mistake, so the "contribution-fishing" possibility remains.
*sigh* Again with the "contribution-fishing" argument that could be applied to anyone.

As you said, I unvoted Silent before he made his post saying that he wanted to jump on someone else's wagon. So it is a legitimate question, even if the answer ended up only being something like it was his mistake. Also, when someone does something awkward, even if I know it was probably a mistake, I'm still going to call them out on it. I didn't forget about my vote, in matter of fact it was the fact that I remembered my vote and the fact that I took it off of him that made me call him out.

As I said earlier, I like nitpicking in the RVS, and that is what I was doing.
Asks if my "I'm excited because it looks like we have a strong town" post indicates I know who the townies are and who I mean when I say we. I thought I was pretty clear initially and so this seems like a weak attack/not very useful question, and thus more contribution-fishing.

And again the "contribution" argument comes out to play. See above. I call out everyone on what I find awkward (aka nitpicking) early in the game.
Votes me and FoS Tomato (again) telling us to answer his questions "asap." Maybe he's just impatient. His vote wasn't sitting on anyone before this, so perhaps he put it on me after getting a little positive reinforcement from Exemption's post in the hopes that a wagon on me might succeed.
My vote on you was to add pressure, same with my FoS on Tomato. Also, really. Do you really think scum is going to just always be trying to get these real early quicklynches?

Overall, the case for him being scummy has two parts. He has made several posts that sound to me like mafia trying to sound protown by scumhunting (the things he has gone after not seeming very scummy to me makes him going after them seem dubious). His voting behavior seems oriented toward being an early vote on the lynch of a vulnerable townie.
Once again, with so little information of course I have to go after small, little things to begin with it. Most of us, including yourself, have been doing that so don't just go after me for it. Also, how is it possible that my VERY FIRST VOTES could be oriented towards the lynches of townies? Unless I'm mistaken, I have yet to vote beyond the second vote. If you want to go after someone who you think is trying to get the lynch of a townie, then why even bother wasting time on me?

I'd like to hear his and some others' responses to this. I also want to hear what the people on the list of suspects I made earlier think of my accusations toward them.
Here you go then.

Phew. . . okay, back to scumhunting then.




With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.


D1 Vote Count #3
Parama (1):
SilentoBoborachi
Tactical Tomato (1):
smashbro
smashbro (1):
Llamarble
SilentoBoborachi (3):
Haylen, Parama, ManfredvonKarma
Haylen (1):
Tactical Tomato
Llamarble (1):
Sworddancer9034

Not voting (1): Exemption
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Post Post #76 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 10:52 am

Post by Parama »

Exemption wrote:If SilentoBoborachi is scum then I can't see ether MVK or Parama being scum as bussing someone this early would just be stupid.
If you care to know, in Mafia 112 I spent most of Day 1 bussing a scumbuddy :P

I'm really liking Sword's posts, lots of good points in there. Too lazy/tired to point out specifics though :/
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Post Post #77 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 10:57 am

Post by Sworddancer9034 »

@Parama: Informative post! However, you do realize you have also just given the mafia a list of what NOT to do, right? Can you justify this?

Also, I think I've noticed something else weird about Llamarble. One of the arguments he made against me was that he thought I might be trying to go after vulnerable players. Early he said he thought we have a strong town. I think I found an inconsistency here. If the town is strong, Llamarble, then why would you be scared of someone potentially going after a weaker player, hmm?
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Post Post #78 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 11:02 am

Post by Parama »

Sworddancer9034 wrote:@Parama: Informative post! However, you do realize you have also just given the mafia a list of what NOT to do, right? Can you justify this?
This is a newbie game, people are here to learn :P
Also, mafia will inevitably do a lot of these things over the course of the game unintentionally, so I'm just giving you guys something to reference for later use. And considering we've already seen plenty of these tells thus far, just explaining why these things are scummy so you can see my arguments clearer.
In case you were wondering.
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Post Post #79 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 11:18 am

Post by Exemption »

Parama wrote:
Exemption wrote:If SilentoBoborachi is scum then I can't see ether MVK or Parama being scum as bussing someone this early would just be stupid.
If you care to know, in Mafia 112 I spent most of Day 1 bussing a scumbuddy :P

I'm really liking Sword's posts, lots of good points in there. Too lazy/tired to point out specifics though :/
kk point noted.

@parama: so normally saying what a Mafia would do if they were playing well is a scum tell? If it is I don't think you can really you it as a tell much in Newby games though as it is ment for us to learn.
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Post Post #80 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 12:36 pm

Post by Parama »

Even if scum is playing well, they'll still be dropping a few scumtells... but the ones playing poorly will be dropping them all over the place.
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Post Post #81 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 12:48 pm

Post by Haylen »

post tomorrow. need shlepp
Seriously. Read your role PM before playing.
I am sorry if you have to prod me, I have absolutely no concept of time.

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Post Post #82 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 1:20 pm

Post by Llamarble »

@Sworddancer:
I did say that I was going to take the angle "Why mafia would do the things you did," and you seemed to be doing a lot of pro-town things, so there was a lot of the "maybe he's trying to look town" argument. Obviously doing protown things isn't a scumtell by itself, the point is just that a person who is scumhunting and being useful isn't necessarily a town player. Sorry if you were really offended; this is a game after all. I didn't have a scumread on you then, and don't have one now. I just don't want anyone to sneak by without any significant analysis so I'm trying to see what sort of case can be brought against each player.

About the "strong town" thing, unless all the players are even skill level there will always be weaker players who might not defend themselves against an accusation as well. I guess it was a little early to be happy about nobody doing anything really obviously anti-town, but since everyone did and does seem to be pretty sensible I certainly don't expect our game to turn out like the "townie quicklynches two townies and then gets lynched in lylo" game that I read, which is what I'm pleased about.
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Post Post #83 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 4:01 pm

Post by SilentoBoborachi »

Parama wrote:
SilentoBoborachi wrote:since people are jumping on my bandwagon I'm going to jump on someone else's
Can you honestly say with a straight face that town would use that logic? "Oh well there's a wagon on me so I'm going to bandwagon on to any opposing wagon I can find.".
Dude, rvs time = votes have little or no deep purpose. If newbies are not allowed to joke/semi-joke vote, I need to know for future games.

I don't want to explain myself a second time, but it just seems everyone's going wild over my vote. It's mostly joke, but there was a deeper meaning as I also explained. If damon_gant was lurking as an SE, it got my attention as a possible suspect. Did I mean for it to almost lead to a lynch? For the most part, no, I liked the idea of using it only as pressure. However, in the end, I still hold on to the idea of lynching lurkers, though I am now editing it to just "lynch lurkers who should know better than lurk". And the fact that I mention he might be busy is the fact that I understand people can be busy and miss things, which is why I mention if damon gets in and starts talking (and seems innocent) I'll remove my vote.

Since Parama has taken damon's place, and has started speaking reasonably (mostly), if the votes are transferred, I
unvote Parama
. If votes are not transferred, then carry on.

And sword, your whole joke vote for me, then seemingly forgetting about your vote, and then explaining the reasoning (it was just a random vote) for your vote thing was indeed confusing.
Though I'll admit I did the same thing when I voted for damon since one of the big reasons I was voting for damon in the first place was because I thought I had two votes for me as well. At the time, I forgot you were the one who voted for me.
Whole thing was weird.
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Post Post #84 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 4:04 pm

Post by SilentoBoborachi »

I had this on my post, then I took it off, I'm just gonna put it down here.

FoS on sword for being odd with the votes.
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Post Post #85 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 7:31 pm

Post by ManfredvonKarma »

Llamarble wrote:Smashbro and MvK finally start scumhunting shortly after I make it clear that I find not doing so suspicious.
Don't flatter yourself. I've been on my toes looking for tells all the while. I like to have a body of posts to work with before I start calling people out because it normalizes isolated instances where townies look scummy, and makes it harder for actual scum to defend against what I'm saying.
Llamarble wrote:MvK insta-sheeps Parama's vote on Silent
Sheeping/Bandwagoning = Voting along with someone without adding to the case or stating any real reasoning. I agreed with Parama's case, and pointed out further evidence. That's not really sheeping.
Llamarble wrote:The best accusation I can level at Parama is that some of his language sounds almost like demagoguery to get people pumped for killing Silent and make himself look very townish.
Welcome to Parama's playstyle.
Exemption wrote:@MVK: please may you put the tags so that it says who you are quoting, it makes it much easier for me to read as I know directly who you are quoting.
I normally do that, and I'll be sure that I do it in the future (or now, really). I just thought it was rather obvious who I was talking about in that post since those quotes came in the middle of me stating reasons for my vote on Silento.
SilentoBoborachi wrote:Dude, rvs time = votes have little or no deep purpose. If newbies are not allowed to joke/semi-joke vote, I need to know for future games.
Of course you're allowed to joke around; you're joke just happened to look very scummy.
SilentoBoborachi wrote:It's mostly joke, but there was a deeper meaning as I also explained. If damon_gant was lurking as an SE, it got my attention as a possible suspect. Did I mean for it to almost lead to a lynch? For the most part, no, I liked the idea of using it only as pressure.
What purpose would it have really served though? Even if Damon_Gant was intentionally lurking, he would have only needed to post something like "Sorry guys, I've been really busy with school/work/family stuff lately" and everyone would have unvoted.
SilentoBoborachi wrote:However, in the end, I still hold on to the idea of lynching lurkers, though I am now editing it to just "lynch lurkers who should know better than lurk".
Everyone
should know better than to lurk. It seems that you're trying to throw reframe your actions in an attempt to help yourself.
SilentoBoborachi wrote:And the fact that I mention he might be busy is the fact that I understand people can be busy and miss things, which is why I mention if damon gets in and starts talking (and seems innocent) I'll remove my vote.
This is the part that really confuses me. If you knew that he could have just been busy, why did you feel it necessary to vote for him in the first place? The first post of the game was made Thu May 06, 2010 9:00 pm. You called out Damon_Gant for lurking on Fri May 07, 2010 6:07 pm. It wasn't even one full day since the game had started, and you were worried about potential lurkers?
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Post Post #86 (ISO) » Mon May 10, 2010 7:50 pm

Post by Exemption »

SilentoBoborachi wrote:
I don't want to explain myself a second time, but it just seems everyone's going wild over my vote.
It's mostly joke, but there was a deeper meaning as I also explained. If damon_gant was lurking as an SE, it got my attention as a possible suspect.
Did I mean for it to almost lead to a lynch? For the most part, no, I liked the idea of using it only as pressure. However, in the end, I still hold on to the idea of lynching lurkers, though I am now editing it to just "lynch lurkers who should know better than lurk". And the fact that I mention he might be busy is the fact that I understand people can be busy and miss things, which is why I mention if damon gets in and starts talking (and seems innocent) I'll remove my vote.

Since Parama has taken damon's place, and has started speaking reasonably (mostly), if the votes are transferred, I
unvote Parama
. If votes are not transferred, then carry on.

And sword, your whole joke vote for me, then seemingly forgetting about your vote, and then explaining the reasoning (it was just a random vote) for your vote thing was indeed confusing.
Though I'll admit I did the same thing when
I voted for damon since one of the big reasons I was voting for damon in the first place was because I thought I had two votes for me as well.
At the time, I forgot you were the one who voted for me.
Whole thing was weird.
my colouring


Hmm that fact that you didn't include these too reasons together makes me a bit confused. Surely you were giving us a quick run down of why you voted for him, yet you missed out one of the big reasons. This is not a direct contradiction of your self as you never stated that they were all your reasons yet it does not sit well with me as something you would miss out.

@MVK: cheers =]
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Post Post #87 (ISO) » Tue May 11, 2010 2:33 am

Post by Llamarble »

@MvK/Parama
Welcome to Parama's playstyle.
Sounds like you two have played together before. Do either of you have anything useful to say about the other?

@Parama
Why do you think MvK followed you so fast? I know he posted some reasons of his own, but they didn't seem very solid to me. Do you think he really believed what he was saying? Also, why do you say things like "I'm liking this idea" that make your argument more attractive without adding substance? That strikes me as anti-town since a town player would want the rest of the town to logically consider the evidence and decide which opinion they like best without being biased by phrasing.

I'll do an ISO of Silent tomorrow since several people think he's scummy and that hasn't been my read so far.
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Post Post #88 (ISO) » Tue May 11, 2010 4:25 pm

Post by Sworddancer9034 »

Lol this game sure is inactive. Like, everyone is going to get prodded, or something.
Llamarble wrote:@Sworddancer:
I did say that I was going to take the angle "Why mafia would do the things you did," and you seemed to be doing a lot of pro-town things, so there was a lot of the "maybe he's trying to look town" argument. Obviously doing protown things isn't a scumtell by itself, the point is just that a person who is scumhunting and being useful isn't necessarily a town player. Sorry if you were really offended; this is a game after all. I didn't have a scumread on you then, and don't have one now. I just don't want anyone to sneak by without any significant analysis so I'm trying to see what sort of case can be brought against each player.

About the "strong town" thing, unless all the players are even skill level there will always be weaker players who might not defend themselves against an accusation as well. I guess it was a little early to be happy about nobody doing anything really obviously anti-town, but since everyone did and does seem to be pretty sensible I certainly don't expect our game to turn out like the "townie quicklynches two townies and then gets lynched in lylo" game that I read, which is what I'm pleased about.
Okay okay, I can see not wanting to let anyone off the leash but I still didn't like your main arguments against me, since they could be applied to anyone. It kinda tells you're just posting fluff, which is, quite ironically, something that you have spoken out against. For that reason, I'm going to let my vote rest on you until (if ever) someone comes up that's scummier. I would vote for Silent, but unless I'm mistaken, that would put him at L_1.

@Silent: I don't really understand what you're confused about. I unvoted you the post before you got on Damon's bandwagon. I mean, you even quoted my post in that post of yours. So yeah, I can't really see it, not that I really find you scummy for that, though.

But I do find you a bit scummy in other ways, but I'll just be parroting if I said them. So yeah. . .

FoS on Silent [/b]
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Post Post #89 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 7:52 am

Post by ManfredvonKarma »

Llamarble wrote:@MvK/Parama
Welcome to Parama's playstyle.
Sounds like you two have played together before. Do either of you have anything useful to say about the other?
Yeah, I have quite a bit of history with Parama. We played at least two games together that have already finished, this game is the second active game that we're both in, and I've co-modded a game he was in. I don't know how useful what I can say about Parama is. What you're seeing from him here (i.e. being overconfident in his cases, creating the feeling that everything is 100% obvious) is pretty much how he plays in every game. Oh, and also he apparently likes getting modkilled. >_>
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Post Post #90 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 9:57 am

Post by Exemption »

It appears to me that Silent has two people wanting to vote for him but not put him at L-1.

I think it is time he defended himself properly. I wouldn't recommend an early lynch.

Hay' what do you think of Silent?
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Post Post #91 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 9:59 am

Post by Llamarble »

Darn, I just made a big post on Silent that I lost, but the case against him I put together from reading all his posts assuming a scum was making them was:

Implying he's mafia by saying "It would be fun to be town" in his first post
Voting for Damon with sketchy reasoning and then updating/expanding his reasoning (though claiming that the things he's adding are the original reasons)
Being the L-2 vote on the suspicious Damon wagon
Making a weakly reasoned FoS at Sworddancer after saying it seemed like both of them were just confused.

I do agree that the case against him is stronger than the case against anyone else right now, but I still don't think he's scum. I'd like to go through his posts again assuming he's town and see if they make more sense that way. Right now I'm leaning toward Smash, Exemption, or Parama being scum with no read on Haylen, not too sure about MvK (I seem to disagree with him a lot but that doesn't mean we're on different teams), and (tentative) town reads on Sword, Tomato, and Silent. I'm going to look at Parama's posts next since I think there's actually a fair amount to point out.
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Post Post #92 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 10:04 am

Post by Parama »

SilentoBoborachi wrote: Dude, rvs time = votes have little or no deep purpose. If newbies are not allowed to joke/semi-joke vote, I need to know for future games.
I know what you're trying to say here but there's definitely a difference between an RVS vote and pushing for an easy lynch.
Llamarble wrote:If MvK does turn out to be scum, I'll be suspicious of Parama as a potential partner due to Parama's statement:
I would agree that MvK withholding his vote is odd. There's no reason to withhold a vote in RVS, especially for a silly reason like that.
Without any follow up which looks like distancing and MvK's pointing out L-1 and recommending against a lynch of Parama, which could be trying to save a scumbuddy from getting quicklynched by newb townies.
'tis called stream of consciousness posting. MvK did one odd thing and nothing else I felt worthy of calling out, so I didn't mention him after that since I had no reason to. In fact there were 2 or 3 players I didn't mention at all IIRC.
Also, you really can't say that there wasn't scum on the Damon wagon <.<
Llamarble wrote:I'm kind of afraid of both Haylen and Parama simply because their higher experience level makes it seem unlikely that they'd do anything wrong serious enough to stick a lynch to them over. The best accusation I can level at Parama is that some of his language sounds almost like demagoguery to get people pumped for killing Silent and make himself look very townish.
Experience =/= automatic pro-towniness btw. And tbh I'm not one of the more... sane... players on this site.
Also, I think the second half here is you describing how I build a good case. If nobody is agreeing with me when I've caught scum then obviously I've failed at making a good case - I make sure those situations never happen by making sure the case is good enough that any sane townie should be able to understand my argument.
...blah I think I forgot where I was going with that.

Exemption's 86 is a nice catch - Silento, care to explain why you gave two conflicting reasons to be on the Damon wagon? Contradictions are scummy y'know.
ManfredvonKarma wrote:
Llamarble wrote:@MvK/Parama
Welcome to Parama's playstyle.
Sounds like you two have played together before. Do either of you have anything useful to say about the other?
Yeah, I have quite a bit of history with Parama. We played at least two games together that have already finished, this game is the second active game that we're both in, and I've co-modded a game he was in. I don't know how useful what I can say about Parama is. What you're seeing from him here (i.e. being overconfident in his cases, creating the feeling that everything is 100% obvious) is pretty much how he plays in every game. Oh, and also he apparently likes getting modkilled. >_>
That's what you think <.<
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Post Post #93 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 10:24 am

Post by Exemption »

I like Parama's play style. It seems fun.
Why is he saying you like modkills?
anyway that is all fluff and not very useful to the game.

@Llamarble: why do you think I am scum?
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Post Post #94 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 12:14 pm

Post by Llamarble »

A few quotes from Parama that stood out to me:
Yeah I really like my Silento vote.
I'm liking this theory.
Things like this that make people more inclined to agree with you without adding substance to your case make it harder for the town to analyze all the information available and come to a reasonable conclusion. Thus I find this sort of statement anti-town.
I think the second half here is you describing how I build a good case. If nobody is agreeing with me when I've caught scum then obviously I've failed at making a good case - I make sure those situations never happen by making sure the case is good enough that any sane townie should be able to understand my argument.
I certainly agree that it should be possible to understand your argument, but as I mentioned before dressing it up to look better with statements that don't add substance is dangerous to the town. Even if you're a townie, you might get everyone to go along with you on an incorrect hunch and miss out on somebody else's better idea.
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I guarantee there is scum here.
you really can't say that there wasn't scum on the Damon wagon <.<
I'll give you that it's reasonably likely, but ruling out something that's plausible is anti-town, since if we throw out a scenario and it turns out thats the one we have, we're screwed.
If you're scum, then it's not terribly unlikely that a bunch of townies would go after you (Smash RV + people bandwagoning because Damon's lurking was the only unusual thing going on). If you're not scum, then 4/5 (town players other than me) voted you, leaving 2 of Smash, Haylen, and Exemption to be mafia, and if the game ended now and I was told that it wouldn't surprise me any great amount, so it's certainly plausible that there wasn't scum on that wagon. In fact, since you don't know my alignment it's 4/6 for you, which is more plausible. Actually, you could be being completely honest. The only way for it to truly be possible for you to guarantee a scum on that wagon is if you're scum and your scumbuddy was there (perhaps Smash, RVing his buddy to distance himself because RVS isn't supposed to lead to quick lynchings).
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Post Post #95 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 12:15 pm

Post by Haylen »

Parama, why do I not get a hello? :cry:

Anywhooo, yes I have been gone for awhile. I somehow managed to catch a stomach bug from my parents despite only being their with them for 2 days.

I like having my vote on SilentoBoborachi, it the bandwagon is getting reactions from him and I would like to keep up the pressure for a li

I do however, wonder why Tactical Tomato is voting for me and where he is. He hasn't posted since at least Monday.

Reck, can we possibly have a prod on Tactical Tomato?
Seriously. Read your role PM before playing.
I am sorry if you have to prod me, I have absolutely no concept of time.

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Post Post #96 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 1:46 pm

Post by Parama »

Llamarble wrote: The only way for it to truly be possible for you to guarantee a scum on that wagon is if you're scum and your scumbuddy was there (perhaps Smash, RVing his buddy to distance himself because RVS isn't supposed to lead to quick lynchings).
My reasoning: This is a newbie game, newbscum don't necessarily understand why pushing a quick, easy lynch is a bade idea so they will do it.
Plus, statistically it's also true FMPOV - 4 people on my wagon, 4 people off, 2 scum out of 8 people = 1 out of 4 is scum.

Hello Haylen I've never actually played a game with you so that's probably why :/
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Post Post #97 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 3:26 pm

Post by ManfredvonKarma »

Exemption wrote:I like Parama's play style. It seems fun.
Why is he saying you like modkills?
Because in the game that I co-modded, Parama got himself modkilled (by one of the other mods). >_>
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Post Post #98 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 5:50 pm

Post by Llamarble »

I don't disagree that from your perspective there's _probably_ 1 scum both from statistics (P(exactly 1 scum) = 8/14, P(at least 1 scum) = 11/14 as computed below) and the fact that newb scum would be more inclined to push for a quick lynch. I just object to the terms "guarantee" and "can't say there's not," since they encourage us to disregard a reasonable possibility. Also we (town players who aren't you) don't know your alignment so from our perspective the likelihood of no scum being on your wagon is higher. Town players who were on the wagon would compute an even higher chance of no scum on the wagon. Hence telling us that we "can't say there's no scum on the wagon" is just not helpful to the town.

The math from your point of view:
1 is the expected number, but the chances (if the voters are random) of none of the 4 being scum from your point of view if you're town are:
P(first is town) * P(second is town) * P(3rd is town)* P(4th is town) =
6/8 * 5/7 * 4/6 * 3/5 =3*4/7*8 is between 20-25%.
That and the fact that as you said newbie scum are more likely to push an easy lynch means it's unlikely but not implausible that none of the 4 are scum, provided you're town. It's just as likely to have both (from your posts it looks like you would say TT and Silbo are the 2) on the wagon as neither
6/8 * 5/7 * 2/6 * 1/5 * 6 different orders = 3/14 again.
So basically from your point of view statistics alone say it is likely but not guaranteed that we have at least one scum on the wagon.


If you actually do this kind of thing every game then I suppose it's not a scumtell even if it's anti-town. In that case that everyone just needs to remember that every time Parama says something we need to be careful to read his arguments for their actual strength, not for how good they sound.
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Post Post #99 (ISO) » Wed May 12, 2010 7:53 pm

Post by xRECKONERx »

I'll get some prods out tomorrow. Sleep now.
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