Prisoner's Dilemma Mafia II {Game Over!}

[Lowell]

1) I don't know what a death miller is. My PM does not lead me to believe I'm anything other than a regular old fashioned miller.

2) @Tuber, sorry you don't like my claiming. However, I agree with those who believe miller is a good thing to claim up front. It saves cops from having to investigating me, or worse, outing themselves after they do. I also claim mason day one, so just be happy we're not mason partners.

[SlySly]

1) I don't know what a death miller is. My PM does not lead me to believe I'm anything other than a regular old fashioned miller

Does your PM specifically state that you are Pro-Town?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

1) I don't know what a death miller is. My PM does not lead me to believe I'm anything other than a regular old fashioned miller

Does your PM specifically state that you are Pro-Town?

Isn't that inferred from the term "Miller"?

From the wiki (Miller):

A Miller (sometimes called an Outsider) is typified as a

member of the town

with an air of corruption and/or suspicion surrounding him. Thus a Miller

acts like a normal Townie

in every way except for one important feature: whenever a Cop investigates a Miller, the Moderator returns a guilty result, even though

the Miller is pro-Town

.

[Lowell]

1) I don't know what a death miller is. My PM does not lead me to believe I'm anything other than a regular old fashioned miller

Does your PM specifically state that you are Pro-Town?

Yes, it does.

[SlySly]

1) I don't know what a death miller is. My PM does not lead me to believe I'm anything other than a regular old fashioned miller

Does your PM specifically state that you are Pro-Town?

Yes, it does.

Ok, I am a miller too. My PM also specifically states that I am Protown so I just wanted to validate your claim.

[SlySly]

But I am not a mason.

[Kublai Khan]

... ? Two millers?

Okay, I guess that's not out of the question. But, damn.

[SlySly]

send:Lowell
send:SlySly

[Plum]

Assuming we send 6 townish players in and they all answer no (fairly big assumption, but as it's being discussed, my two cents): Maybe three daycops and three dayvigs? Cops use powers first, we vig any guilties, note the innocents, then use the remaining kills (if any) on the scummiest-looking players?

There is an informed mafia group and a very large uninformed group. Now you want to give the uninformed group the ability to kill 6 people within the game? That is absurd. Wouldnt the town want to gather information before blindly killing off almost a quarter of the players int he game. Assuming the breakdown is the way I think it might be, then by doing this and gaining 6 day kills you will almost assuredly only speed the process of the town losing the game. i am farily certaint hat 6 sane cop investigations would be much more relevant than 6 daykills. Also, how about this little trinket. What if you jsut voted 2 scum players in? they will both say no and go about prancing all over your dead body when the next day begins. you just gave the mafia 3 kills isntead of one. Brilliant.

What do you think lynches are for? You make a good point that we need information and shouldn't shoot blindly. At the same time, we don't have conventional lynches, and dayvigging could give us back some of that sort of power in the game. Your last point is noted. I'd like to know whether there's a way to confirm the choice of a player who gets powers from the prison scenario. If possible, perhaps assign powers to choose to the players before they're sent to prison, and assign them players to use their powers on. Do an unofficial investigate and/or dayvig and/or Doc protect vote. Any player who goes against the town is . . . dayvigged, if we have one, or a townie is sacrificed to kill him? On the one hand, that would change scum behavior, on the other, in that case a real townie wouldn't risk going against the town. On the other hand, that's a lot of potential loss . . .

I don't want to go the send two townie-looking players to prison route.

Why not, and what alternative strategy do you propose?

Freeko, may I ask why you're so interested in the possibility of an SK?

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

Prison Count #1

4 - Narsis (Lowell, CounselWolf, DrippingGoofball, Empking)
3 - Seraphim (DrippingGoofball, RossWilliam, doctor no)
3 - Lowell (Empking, freeko. SlySly)
2 - DrippingGoofball (Vel-Rahn Koon, Narsis)
2 - CounselWolf (Narsis, Plum)
2 - SlySly (Vel-Rahn Koon, SlySly)
2 - Empking (freeko, doctor no)
2 - Kublai Khan (Stephoscope, Percy)
2 - Plum (Plum, Percy)

1 - freeko (Lowell)
1 - doctor no (CounselWolf)
1 - ortolan (ortolan)
1 - Vel-Rahn Koon (RossWilliam)

Not Yet Voted:

Seraphim (2)
The Central Scrutinizer (2)
Albert B. Rampage (2)
ortolan (1)
zachattack (2)
Moratorium (2)
Stephoscope (1)
hp [leaves] (2)
Kublai Khan (2)
Tuberkulos (2)
detspeed (2)
Ectomancer (2)
solorpg (2)

Remember the majority is 13 and the deadline is 3:00PM EST, Feb. 2nd

[CounselWolf]

unsend: Narsis

unsend: doctor no

I want my hands free so that I can comment without the burden of overreactions to my Random Sends.

I think that, because of the very nature of the game theory behind the Prisoner's Dilemma, that our best bet to rid our town of scum is DKs, so we should send confirmed townies into the Dilemma to empower them. This is of course, embracing the idealism of others, because if there's anything like the "Master Interrogator" role like there was in PD 1, we're all going to have a fun time. I'm also not going to FOS anybody 'til all of us have more evidence.

@The Millers: how do we know that youse guys aren't just playacting the part of Millerdom so that we don't investigate you, lest we get a guilty result? I'm not suspicious of either of you yet, I'd just like to know how we can get around this bit of confusion.

[freeko]

Assuming we send 6 townish players in and they all answer no (fairly big assumption, but as it's being discussed, my two cents): Maybe three daycops and three dayvigs? Cops use powers first, we vig any guilties, note the innocents, then use the remaining kills (if any) on the scummiest-looking players?

...On the other hand, that's a lot of potential loss . . .

Freeko, may I ask why you're so interested in the possibility of an SK?

I edited that down alot to cut out the chaff that was irrelevant to the discussion. anything else could obviously be seen int he post it originated from.

Part one. I just cannot fathom giving kills to people on the first day (to use for the second day), It is an incredible risk to be taking so early in the game. THis is on two fronts, what if in the process of everyone saying no someone gets paired with a scum.. oops free kill please. The second part of that gaffe is also absolutely ugly, a double vote AND the choice of "say no" powers. So they get one in prison and then get another during the next day. I dont like that risk vs reward evaluation at all.

As for my "interest" in there being a 3rd party, It is an option that I believe should be worth exploring. It could be anything really. I dont believe that I explicitly said there was an SK in the game so now I want to know if you are blatantly trying to twist my words?

[solorpg]

Part one. I just cannot fathom giving kills to people on the first day (to use for the second day), It is an incredible risk to be taking so early in the game. THis is on two fronts, what if in the process of everyone saying no someone gets paired with a scum.. oops free kill please. The second part of that gaffe is also absolutely ugly, a double vote AND the choice of "say no" powers. So they get one in prison and then get another during the next day. I dont like that risk vs reward evaluation at all.

2 problems with this logic:
1) yes/no doesn't give the option of a daykill, so I don't know where the second townie death comes from.
2) I think that result isn't bad for town. If we've all agreed that we're sending 2 people

so that they'll say no/no

and someone says yes, it's pretty much "I'm scum please vig me asap". Anything that 100% IDs scum without miller shenanigans or the possibility of lying pseudo-cops is really good.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

send:SlySly

send:Lowell

As far as I have seen (which is little), people who play Miller have a tendency to really,

really

want to claim Day One. I see the percentages of this being a scum gambit as low.

[Plum]

Assuming we send 6 townish players in and they all answer no (fairly big assumption, but as it's being discussed, my two cents): Maybe three daycops and three dayvigs? Cops use powers first, we vig any guilties, note the innocents, then use the remaining kills (if any) on the scummiest-looking players?

...On the other hand, that's a lot of potential loss . . .

Freeko, may I ask why you're so interested in the possibility of an SK?

I edited that down alot to cut out the chaff that was irrelevant to the discussion. anything else could obviously be seen int he post it originated from.

Part one. I just cannot fathom giving kills to people on the first day (to use for the second day), It is an incredible risk to be taking so early in the game. THis is on two fronts, what if in the process of everyone saying no someone gets paired with a scum.. oops free kill please. The second part of that gaffe is also absolutely ugly, a double vote AND the choice of "say no" powers. So they get one in prison and then get another during the next day. I dont like that risk vs reward evaluation at all.

As for my "interest" in there being a 3rd party, It is an option that I believe should be worth exploring. It could be anything really. I dont believe that I explicitly said there was an SK in the game so now I want to know if you are blatantly trying to twist my words?

Well, you brought the possibility of an SK/3rd party role up without anything I noticed prompting it, nor any suggestions along the lines of 'assuming there is an SK, we should consider X'. You brought it up in a succesive post, though on reread it looks a bit more closely related to your argument against the prisoners choosing Vig powers.

On that note:

1. The risk of scum gumming up any PD strategies we run is a given, whether we send in two townie-seeming players or not. We pair two townish, there's a risk scum get a free kill. Same thing if we send in a townish and a scummish, though theoretically a larger risk. Sending two scummish brings about a more dangerous risk of scum both living and gaining more kills.

See solorpg's post for more sentiments on this topic I'd like to echo.

[Lowell]

send:SlySly

send:Lowell

As far as I have seen (which is little), people who play Miller have a tendency to really,

really

want to claim Day One. I see the percentages of this being a scum gambit as low.

From what I've seen in the other game, there are ways for people to influence the prisoner responses against their will, so even if both want to say "No" it doesn't always work out that way. This is why I don't like the "send two pro-town players, have them both get powers" strategy, necessarily.

I don't mind giving it a try with Sly and I, assuming he's also what he says he is, since we're not exactly powerroles in any meaningful sense. But I'd much prefer to send scummy people. The chance that they end up dead far outweighs the harms of a scum with a vig kill or investigative role (in fact, the latter is just as useful in scum hands as in pro-town hands).

[freeko]

Solo, you are right. I misread the options on yes/no.

I want to make one thing clear. I think that gaining information in the first (few?) days would be infinitely more relevant than stockpiling a load of daykills that potentially have no use. Especially this early in the game. Speaking strictly on a percentage basis combined with my own feelings as to the possible setup. There is about a 15% chance that a mafia scum is even hit from all this going on. Obviously the numbers are rough as i do not know how many anti-town players are in this game.

Lets assume the best case scenario, 6 people all town go into prison and they all say no. Then what? run around with 6 daykills that you cannot reliably use?

Noe lets assume the worst. Say a bunch of mafia are sent into prison. Not only do they get their night kill(s?) (also assuming that some are still out of prison by reading the first games rules) The ones that end up voting yes get a free kill. After that they will most likely take doc protection and save themselves from a daykill. Now the town is down potentially 4 or 5 people on the worst case scenario.

Either way I dont see any information being gained from it.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Solo, you are right. I misread the options on yes/no.

I want to make one thing clear. I think that gaining information in the first (few?) days would be infinitely more relevant

than stockpiling a load of daykills that potentially have no use.

Especially this early in the game. Speaking strictly on a percentage basis combined with my own feelings as to the possible setup. There is about a 15% chance that a mafia scum is even hit from all this going on. Obviously the numbers are rough as i do not know how many anti-town players are in this game.

Lets assume the best case scenario, 6 people all town go into prison and they all say no. Then what? run around with 6 daykills that you cannot reliably use?

Noe lets assume the worst. Say a bunch of mafia are sent into prison. Not only do they get their night kill(s?) (also assuming that some are still out of prison by reading the first games rules) The ones that end up voting yes get a free kill. After that they will most likely take doc protection and save themselves from a daykill. Now the town is down potentially 4 or 5 people on the worst case scenario.

Either way I dont see any information being gained from it.

Is that the way it works? From reading the first post with the chart in it, it reads to me that the powers granted are only good for the next day.

Mod: Clarification please. If someone gets a power from being in jail, do they keep it until they use it, or until the next night cycle and then it's lost?

[solorpg]

On that note, I'm not totally sure what the connection is between doc protection and the "100% daykills".

Mod, do doc protections prevent daykills?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

send:SlySly

send:Lowell

As far as I have seen (which is little), people who play Miller have a tendency to really,

really

want to claim Day One. I see the percentages of this being a scum gambit as low.

From what I've seen in the other game, there are ways for people to influence the prisoner responses against their will, so even if both want to say "No" it doesn't always work out that way. This is why I don't like the "send two pro-town players, have them both get powers" strategy, necessarily.

I don't mind giving it a try with Sly and I, assuming he's also what he says he is, since we're not exactly powerroles in any meaningful sense. But I'd much prefer to send scummy people. The chance that they end up dead far outweighs the harms of a scum with a vig kill or investigative role (in fact, the latter is just as useful in scum hands as in pro-town hands).

In the previous setup scum had a limited number of ways to interfere with the prison. Since we have up to three pairings a day, I say we use them all to try to pair two town. I still think this is our best shot in the early going... the way we won PDI was fluky.

[freeko]

@vel: The reason I say that they

potentially

have no use is that what are you going to do? Just randomly daykill a person when you dont know if they really are a town/mafia. It just leads to a situation that is more than likely not going to help the town in either the short term or the long term if we go down this route. Not on day 1 at least. My personal feeling is that information needs to be gathered first. THEN we can send in 2 confirmed town players so that we can daykill.

If I end up in prison, personally I would go for the cop ability this early into the game. A daykill on the next day would be next to useless for me as I would know nothing about anyone else and it would be a total shot in the dark that will most likely not work out very well.

I do not deny that trying to pair town early is not the best play. I assumet hat the scum have a break-in ability to bust up one pair (the last game had this mechanic). The problem I have is still this. What good will a daykill be on day 2 when you have no information on who to use it on?

[Plum]

@vel: The reason I say that they

potentially

have no use is that what are you going to do? Just randomly daykill a person when you dont know if they really are a town/mafia. It just leads to a situation that is more than likely not going to help the town in either the short term or the long term if we go down this route. Not on day 1 at least. My personal feeling is that information needs to be gathered first. THEN we can send in 2 confirmed town players so that we can daykill.

If I end up in prison, personally I would go for the cop ability this early into the game. A daykill on the next day would be next to useless for me as I would know nothing about anyone else and it would be a total shot in the dark that will most likely not work out very well.

I do not deny that trying to pair town early is not the best play. I assumet hat the scum have a break-in ability to bust up one pair (the last game had this mechanic). The problem I have is still this. What good will a daykill be on day 2 when you have no information on who to use it on?

What's the point of a Day 1 lynch in a daystart game, then? Answer: chance at killing scum, and secondarily, more information. I still advocate trying to find six townish players, ordering them to say 'No', and assign three of them the daycop choice and three the dayvig choice. The town then votes to determine the three scummiest players, on whom we'll order the PD players to use their investigations. If anyone gets a scum result, order a dayvig. That person comes up town, vig the daycop who claimed the guilty. Repeat until all three investigations are used. If any daykills are left, use them on the scummiest players not investigated (taking into account any relelvant alignment flips that have occured); these again will be determined by a town vote (like a lynch). Anyone who does not comply will be dayviged ASAP.

Sure, scum might have some methods to screw with the PD. Does anyone know of a specific power that can be used to screw the town only/worse if we use the above method, though? Dunno, I happen to think the above plan is close to as solid as we'll be able to get right now. Maybe, if possible, give the three towniest players of the chosen six the dayvig capabilities. Determine this by vote. In fact, perhaps we should try discussion, votes (for convenience), and overall consensus before we lock in

any

PD prisoners. Comments, criticisms, amendments anyone?

Summary/ tl;dr: Suggest attempt three pairs of two townies. Instruct three (specified) to choose daycop, and three (specified) to choose dayvig powers. Investigations used on scummiest players as determined by majority vote; after that, daykills are determined by the same method. Deviants and liars risk death.

Suggest vote instead of official 'send' before we reach consensus on the six players and the pairings. Orderly-making.

[RossWilliam]

We have three combinations and three prisons. It's hard to pick which combination is ideal so why not do all three? One prison town-town, one town-scum, and one scum-scum....That way we can determine the results of what happened, and figure out what combination is the best to persue?

However, if we do want to go with six town, which I think might be dangerous cause it's so easy for scum to slip through the cracks at that point, I think Plum's method would be ideal.

[zachattack]

I like the idea of sending 6 town looking players to prison, and lowell and slysly both seem safe with their miller claims. I'll vote to send them once we work out what our plan for the day is. The dayvig ability is probably going to be the best substitute for a lynch vote in this game, as i don't feel the Prisoners Dilemna is going to be a reliable, effective or efficient way of taking out scum. I like Plum's method and think it's the best way to go except for one part.

Maybe, if possible, give the three towniest players of the chosen six the dayvig capabilities.

I would give the three towniest players the daycop ability instead. Sending 6 players who look like town and actually sending six townies are two different things, a scum or two could easily slip in. If we assign a scum player the cop ability he could lie if asked to investigate his partner, or lie about what ability he chose and use protection for himself, or his buddies. However, if a scum slips through and is assigned the vig ability, he pretty much has to do what we say.

[Narsis]

Unsend: Counselwolf

Unsend: DrippingGoofball

the random stage is over.

anyway...there's been some interesting thoughts. i agree with freeko that 6 DK's is a bad idea. the town needs information first. i believe the best way to get information would be with plum's plan.

so now we need to figure out who to send:

so far i'm getting the best feelings from plum, freeko, and zachattack so:

Send: Plum

Send: zachattack

now as for lowell and sly...i really don't like there miller claims, sly's least of all. i think it'd be best to ignore the claims. it's far too easy for scum to claim miller before the game gets going. focus on how they are playing instead. however, we can not investigate them considering they'd probably come up guilty(it wouldn't make much sense for someone that thinks they'll appear pro-town to investigation to claim miller).

anyway...those are just my thoughts...