Mini 956: The Quayside (Game Over)

[Incognito]

Gotta love 3 A.M. reading...

Actually, why are we still having this talk? Looking at the vote count and looking at Red's 539. Where's the hammer, son?

All this without a claim?

SC, I know for a fact that you're not a bad player, so I don't get why you seemingly don't understand what I'm saying with respect to IAUN and cases and the like here.

- My position is that making a good case against someone is not a town-tell. You claim to believe otherwise. Are you really suggesting that in all the games of Mafia that you've played, you've never seen scum make a solid case against another player?

Here's my interpretation of what happened here: IAUN makes some case during Day 1 against popsofctown, you get this town read of him sometime after that, we find out that NabNab wasn't this big bad scum that the majority of us thought he was, IAUN storms into Day 2 and votes pops citing his case from Yesterday, others say "LOL I AGREE" and vote pops to L-1, pops begins trying to defend himself, and IAUN doesn't appear in-thread again to address things that have been said by pops and others (in other words, he completely quits scum-hunting altogether). And despite all this, you still claim that you have this magical town read of him that doesn't seem to factor in anything that he's done since the point you developed this read of yours. Do you really not see why this all looks contrived to me?

Incog has made one 'case' located here which was hardly much of anything - it starts by saying the first two points are speculative then doesn't continue with any more!

Huge Red X.
10 bucks says you didn't even attempt to look into what I said after that.

He slunk onto the Nab wagon late after it was looking like stalling, while supporting it without voting on it previously.

Another huge red X. The NabNab wagon never at any point looked like it was stalling, so I don't understand why you're claiming it was. And prior to me placing my vote on his wagon I was using the time we had in-thread to try and figure both Nab and the other players in this game out. There's nothing wrong with that.

Since his Jahudo 'case' he's done very little, but has had several cheap shots (the one on me saying my iam read was meta alone, the one on iam about iam's non-existant case on incog, switching off jahudo to vote iam without a case WHILE complaining about iam not having a case on him etc etc)

Why do you consider these to be cheap shots? And your interpretation of my iamausername vote is completely off there.
IAUN quoted pops saying that his case against me was that my posts are bad. But prior to that, he said he had bad feelings about me but hadn't figured out why yet. To go from "not figuring out why" to "his posts are bad" is a huge jump if you ask me. That by itself is completely vote-worthy especially coupled with the fact that he hadn't done much of anything else in a pretty big span of time and had completely mis-repped the situation with respect to Jahudo.

-~-~

P.S. Jahudo's last post was, imo, another good example of exactly what pops was elaborating on here. I don't see how anyone playing with 2500+ posts under his belt could really look deep into players giving themselves town reads. I'm pretty sure this isn't the first game that he's seen this done before. I can't tell if Ectomancer is being serious or not but Jahudo sure seems to be.

[Goatrevolt]

To be honest though, I think meta isn't the right way to look at me, because I'm conscious of my own meta. The best thing you could do is work out if my play is coming from someone who believes what they are saying, believes the points they make and if the motivations behind them aren't tainted, and I'm sure my alignment will become pretty obvious.

This is what I'm trying to do, and I get mixed reads. Some things, like you doubting the Nabakov wagon based on McGriddle's poor vote strike me as genuine reads. Other things, like how you jumped on the Pops wagon today have struck me as not very genuine. I've gone back and forth on you a lot.

In terms of what you are suggesting is a fallacy, my point is that I dislike the pops wagon. I think a lot of people have poor reasons to be on it, and nobody seems to be very interested in anything besides pops. Basically, there is very little opposition to pops being the lynch, and there has been almost no resistance to it. Even Elmo/Incognito have done very little toward actually stopping Pops from being lynched despite finding him town/not being on the wagon. If pops is scum, the most likely thing is that he's being bused. If the scum aren't interested in busing, they would probably be pushing an alternate wagon and trying to save Pops. If your scum buddy is going down, you're either on board, or you're trying to save him. Standing idly by is dumb scum play because it draws you fire by not being on a scum lynch and your buddy still dies anyway.

But if pops is town, then it stands to reason that there are scum riding the easy town lynch as well. It's definitely possible there is a scum between Incog/Elmo who is avoiding the town-Pops lynch, but judging by the speed and weakness of the wagon chances are there are at least 2 scum on board.

Based on the way the day has played out I'm fairly certain scum are on that wagon. Jahudo is my top pick, but I could really see any of the people on that wagon be scum and it wouldn't surprise me greatly, save McGriddle in the case Pops is scum and being bused.

And I know I "should" probably be voting Jahudo right now, but I'm not entirely sure I should be trying to stop Pops from being lynched, so I haven't really made an effort to. I'm not sure I could even do so if I tried. That's why I'm spending a lot of time working on conditional reads.

[Goatrevolt]

I note you didn't say anythign in defence of incog though, was that a conscious choice?

Forgot to answer this. I read your points on Incognito and really didn't have a response. Incognito has been the most active player, and has consistently weighed in and provided his stance/opinion on things as they have developed. I haven't noticed anything that struck me as decidedly fake from him, and there hasn't been anything where I've felt he's shirked away from adding his 2 cents or waited for others to hop in before throwing his own opinion into the mix, etc. If he's scum, he's playing an excellent game. My guess is that he's probably not.

[Hoopla]

Day 2, Vote Count 9

With ten alive, it takes

6

votes to lynch. Deadline is schedueled for 10:00AM GMT, May 9th <Countdown>.

popsofctown

-

5

(Jahudo, iamausername, SerialClergyman, Ectomancer, McGriddle)

Jahudo

-

3

(Elmo, Incognito, popsofctown)

Not Voting

-

2

(Goatrevolt, RedCoyote)

[SerialClergyman]

Even I don't know for a fact I'm not a bad player.

- My position is that making a good case against someone is not a town-tell. You claim to believe otherwise. Are you really suggesting that in all the games of Mafia that you've played, you've never seen scum make a solid case against another player?

These two statements are incongruous. While it's possible that scum can make a good case on someone, I think it's MORE LIKELY to come from town - hence town TELL. I have seen scum make good cases on town, but that's not the point, it's an INDICATOR.

What if pops was to flip scum? It's not impossible that Iam is a buddy who is strongly bussing pops. I've seen scum strongly bus before. But it would be MORE LIKELY that he was town who caught scum.

You can take ANY town tell and find scum that make it, and any scum tell and find town that make it. The point is that some things are good behaviour that town are more likely to engage in, and somethings are bad behaviour that scum are more likely to engage in. Making a solid case (solid is important) is a pro-town action that while POSSIBLE to do as scum, is MORE LIKELY to be done as town.

I don't know how I can be clearer than this.

No, my IAUN read has been solid since D1, nothing magical or contrived about i, I've given stacks of reasons for it and whether you agree with it or not is of little concern to me - unless you're characterising it as meta only when I specifically explained how it wasn't.

Huge Red X.
10 bucks says you didn't even attempt to look into what I said after that.

Quotes please. As far as I can tell, you made those two points in part one in post 418, then in part 2 in 420 you don't mention Jahudo at all then in your next post at 446 you complain about ecto and I not commenting on your case.

To go from "not figuring out why" to "his posts are bad" is a huge jump if you ask me. That by itself is completely vote-worthy

I think this is rubbish. He made an offhand comment about his 'case' on you being your bad posts. He was referring specifically to a comment pops made about the case on him:

your attack was basically "I read your posts, they're bad".

No, that's my case on Incog.

[/quote]

So now it's my turn to play this card - I know for a fact YOU aren't stupid, and I know that you understand a facetious comment because I made one earlier, so I can't understand why you'd read this as anything other than facetious.

[SerialClergyman]

Ugh, fail tags.

Goat - I believe everthing you said in those two posts. I'm butting heads with Incog more than the others because i'm still trying to work him out, he is not the highest in my list. I just can't see him as the most pro-town in the game at ALL.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm not necessarily saying that he's the most pro-town. I think you mistook my statement. I said his actions were the most pro-town, as in he's been the most out in the open/vocal player in the game. He's done the most visible probing, etc. That doesn't necessarily mean he is my strongest town read (and actually I'm having a hard time getting strong town reads so far this game...which is a problem. I'm a lot like you in that I like to work process of elimination from town reads).

When did you change from thinking he was town to being unsure about him?

[SerialClergyman]

I started after Patrick's death and Nab's townflip. The main reason was I didn't understand why Patrick was killed, and him being suspicious of Jahudo and Patrick were two possible reasons (I didn't think he looked pro-town enough to be killed, and he was quiet and in the background most of the day)

I think in the context of Nab being town I was uneasy about his voting pattern (I had thought he was voting Nab then unvoted and went to Jahudo and back, I later learnt that he never voted Nab until that last vote).

From there it's developed a bit, but that was what turned me from town -> not sure.

[Goatrevolt]

In your game as mafia that you linked me, you said the following at one point:

Shotty scum or not, Kise is no doubt scum

In this game you seem to have a problem with me taking a similar stance on Jahudo. Are you lying when you say that you hate those kind of "fallacies" or were you committing that "fallacy" yourself at the time despite not liking it?

[SerialClergyman]

Well, that game I was scum, and Kise was my partner.

But aside from that, it's still not quite the same thing.

Fine:

Player A is scum whether player B is or not.

Not fine:

Player A's interactions with Player B make me think he's scum, no matter player B's alignment.

Do you get the distinction? The problem is that if his interactions could be read as EITHER bussing a mate or picking on a townie, then it should be neutral - you haven't actually done any analysis to help determine his alignment.

So it's fine to think someone is scum regardless of another's alignment, but not BECAUSE of their interactions with that person, regardless of alignment.

[Goatrevolt]

The Stop, Hammertime thing SC did in this game is pretty much identical to what he did as scum, even down to the "let's see Nab's flip" being similar to him saying something akin to "so are you scum" in that other game.

The big thing I wanted to check out with your meta is whether or not you do things like say "let's get that done" before every single vote you make, because that is what you've done here. The meta wasn't really very conclusive. I don't think you did that much as either town or scum in those games.

One thing I noticed in his scum game was that he did a lot of buddying to Albert, and used a ton of smilies and a ton of "lols, rofls", etc, something that has been missing from this game, so I think that's a town meta-read off of what I was shown.

All in all, I didn't learn a whole lot, but it was worth reading through, anyway. I'm going to settle to not having a good read on SC for now, and try to work out his alignment in other ways.

[SerialClergyman]

Well, I remember saying 'let's lynch Reck without telling him why' in a recent game, and in general I don't mind pushing for hammers.

Meh - I could find tonnes of things in my meta that back my play, and probably tonnes that don't. As I said, I don't think meta is really a strong way to read me (I was recently lynched in two games simultaneously as town, one for not obeying my town meta by tunnelling and one by not obeying my town meta by NOT tunnelling. I may be still a little bitter).

I re-read your last post and your meaning wasn't fully apparant to me at the time (I didn't realise you knew I was scum that game) but I think I answered it fully anyway.

[Goatrevolt]

Fine:

Player A is scum whether player B is or not.

Not fine:

Player A's interactions with Player B make me think he's scum, no matter player B's alignment.

I don't see a huge distinction. Your read on player A based on the "fine" section is no doubt a product of how player A has interacted with the game or other players as a whole. We read players based on how they interact with everyone else, based on what they find suspicious and how they go after people, etc. In most cases, what you consider "not fine" or a collection of events you consider "not fine" are what compose the suspicions that cause someone to find Player A suspicious enough to make the "fine" comment.

In this case: I think Jahudo's attacks on pops are scummy, because the way Jahudo has gone about it seems unlikely to come from a town mindset. Therefore Jahudo is scum. Jahudo is scum whether or not the player he is attacking is scum.

I don't see much of a distinction if any.

[Goatrevolt]

When did you start thinking RedCoyote was town and why?

[SerialClergyman]

I don't think that's valid. 'In a scummy manner' implies that you understand the motives behind his attack, but if you can't tell if the person he's attacking is scum or not then how can you understand the motives behind his attack?

From memory, around the time he started voting you. I'd considered doing the same thing but then dismissed it as me being frustrated at parts of your play I disagreed with, not that you were doing anything scummy. When he voted you, I recognised a lot of the same thought process I went through, and thought it entirely likely that he went through the same process but stopped just before the 'is this play that I disagree with actually scummy' stage.

Aside from the case itself, there was the timing and the target of the attack. it didn't make sense as scum to go after someone that was going to put up that kind of fight without a shred of support. It looked like an earnest case, one he was pushing because he belived it, not because he thought it would help strategically.

[Goatrevolt]

I don't think that's valid. 'In a scummy manner' implies that you understand the motives behind his attack, but if you can't tell if the person he's attacking is scum or not then how can you understand the motives behind his attack?

Really? Town attack town all the time thinking they are attacking scum. Town attack scum thinking they are attacking scum. Scum attack town knowing they are town. Scum attack scum knowing they are scum. It's definitely possible to attempt to figure out the motives behind an attack--in other words, whether the attack is a genuine belief or not--without knowing the alignment of the player who was attacked. How would you even scum hunt day 1 if this wasn't possible?

I'm surprised to hear you say you considered voting me. Not sure if that is believable or not, considering you have stated you consider me town the entirety of the game.

[Goatrevolt]

I think it's highly unlikely that RedCoyote and Elmo are both scum. If one is, the other is most likely town.

For one, RC jumped on Elmo right off the bat, and secondly RC didn't pay close enough attention and mistook Elmo for someone else. It's unlikely someone doesn't pay enough attention to figure out who their scum buddy is and also unlikely to fake something like that for "distancing" purposes.

[SerialClergyman]

That's a good point. But even then, I think you need to focus on the fact that it's a bad attack, NOT that they are linked to this player.

A busses B here *quote* is not reaonsbale without knowing B is scum. I don't believe this attack by A on B is genuine *quote* is much more reasonable.

*shrug* I am always re-evaluating my reads. You can't afford to be complacent. I think the time I specifically remember thinking about whether I thought you were specifically scummy or not is around D1 during our back and forth about your playstyle. It came to me briefly after Nab's flip too (was Goat using his SC is bussing Nab thing to pretend he was tunnelled about Nab being scum?) but that's it. It wasn't suspicion as much as a rethink. I decided against it and i'm glad I did, but when I saw Red's post I sympathised.

[Goatrevolt]

That's a good point. But even then, I think you need to focus on the fact that it's a bad attack, NOT that they are linked to this player.

Sure, and I am. I'm just saying that my read isn't dependent on Pops' alignment. You're the one who is assuming I am trying to link my read of Jahudo to pops, when all I'm saying is that regardless of the flip of the likely lynch today, Pops, I still think Jahudo is scummy.

[Goatrevolt]

If either Ectomancer or Jahudo is scum, the other is less likely to be scum. Ectomancer randomly called Jahudo out as likely to be town, which is an odd thing for scum to randomly say about their scum buddy unprompted and without stated cause.

[Ectomancer]

I like Goat today. We should still hop on Pop.

[Goatrevolt]

I've read up to partway through page 9, but I have to go to work so I won't finish until later. I've posted a few key connections I've noticed. I'm still working out individual reads.

Pops should claim. Please don't hammer yet.

[SerialClergyman]

I think I've just been served. Maybe I didn't follow that argument properly, but your last point makes sense. Hmm.

Ah well, if I get aggreived later I'll return to it.

I think the problem for my comprehension was you saying if pops is blah then blah - that sort of insinuates that pops' alignment is driving the read. If you'd just said SC and Jahudo look scummy I'd be fine with it, but you said if pops is town then blah blah and then did the opposite.

Right, so, moving on. Ecto, I agree.

[Jahudo]

I wonder if pops will claim now. He said he wouldn't until 3 days before deadline, but maybe Goat's call will change him mind.

I'm also wondering if McGriddle thinks I might be scum, and if he has a preference for either lynch. I think him and Goat are the main swing votes at this moment. So if people want me to claim today (Elmo, Incog), they should be acting with more urgency and purpose like Goat is.

P.S. Jahudo's last post was, imo, another good example of exactly what pops was elaborating on here. I don't see how anyone playing with 2500+ posts under his belt could really look deep into players giving themselves town reads. I'm pretty sure this isn't the first game that he's seen this done before. I can't tell if Ectomancer is being serious or not but Jahudo sure seems to be.

What, pops agreeing with the backgroundish stuff? I probably have seen people give self-reads, but I don't have examples and don't know if town have done it more often than scum. I don't see the point of doing it for fun when you seem like a serious player and player reads are serious stuff.

[McGriddle]

I wonder if pops will claim now. He said he wouldn't until 3 days before deadline, but maybe Goat's call will change him mind.

I'm also wondering if McGriddle thinks I might be scum, and if he has a preference for either lynch. I think him and Goat are the main swing votes at this moment. So if people want me to claim today (Elmo, Incog), they should be acting with more urgency and purpose like Goat is.

P.S. Jahudo's last post was, imo, another good example of exactly what pops was elaborating on here. I don't see how anyone playing with 2500+ posts under his belt could really look deep into players giving themselves town reads. I'm pretty sure this isn't the first game that he's seen this done before. I can't tell if Ectomancer is being serious or not but Jahudo sure seems to be.

What, pops agreeing with the backgroundish stuff? I probably have seen people give self-reads, but I don't have examples and don't know if town have done it more often than scum. I don't see the point of doing it for fun when you seem like a serious player and player reads are serious stuff.

Meh, I don't know if I really think you are scummy anymore. I thought you were scum based off of whether or not nab flipped scum. I was pretty confident he was scum so I don't know how I feel about you now. All I know is that pops is the most likely scum choice IMO.