NY 169: The EPIC XD Mafia Game of Greatness (Game Over)

[BROseidon]

He is a claimed doc that didn't die in the night... Only me and koreanBBQ pushed this to my knowledge so why would scum leave a town doc alive and NOT toss the suspicion about? Makes no sense and several scum suspects of others actually defended him.

Eh? I definitely soft-pushed it.

[DOMO]

It makes no sense to me why a townie would fakeclaim doc.

[BROseidon]

MafiaSSK (8)

-

zMuffinMan, geists, Desperado, Casso the King of Seals, Sakura Hana, Bert, Generic, Cephrir

If SSK is scum, I expect 2 on this wagon.

If he's town, I expect 3.

Certainty is +/- 1, which I guess makes this fairly imprecise :/

[geists]

OK in all seriousness, yes Nacho's walls do remind me of his wall on Brian Skies's meta which Falcon called out in Mentor/Mentee 254. Nacho isn't usually this verbose? He's talking out of his you-know-where maybe, but I won't interrupt his walls while he is in his charming world of charming people. CRAZY THEORY: He knows this is the Nacho we all want to say, and so he is overdoing that aspect of his ID.

They remind me of this: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5175588

We were both up all night working on our walls for that game.

Didn't you/Nacho also do that in 167?

We did it as the game day was winding down because we hadn't taken any stances on a lot of players. And what we did was a lot less substantive than our walls in Perpetual Mylo. And it certainly wasn't an hours-long insomnia-driven collaboration.

I have been thinking about the PMYLO wall in comparison to other walls and aside from the format, I don't think many of his (or my) analyses will be that thought out ever in a game. We were at L-1 and knew we could be hammered at any moment. We were trying to solve the entire game and lay out a winning lynch strategy for town before we died. And we were going to die. If we got out of the lynch we were obviously going to be the NK because we knew we had the scum team nailed. Every bit of persuasiveness we could muster went into our walls that night.

What Nacho is doing here is a lot more organic and freewheeling. And yes, he does it as town and as scum. He did it to good effect on day 2 of the Marketplace game (scum). And he did it in a similar fashion in Micro 258 (town)

[BROseidon]

I believe that if there is a gunsmith and a doctor in this game, then scum will have some method of countering it that's better than a mafia doctor (likely a roleblocker). If scum have a roleblocker, then they will probably block SSK-town and kill you (pretty much the same actions they would take if SSK-scum). This means that leaving him alive will do nothing for the town since he's likely to be lynched anyways and won't be able to use his night action. I would be all for leaving him alive if he showed some semblance of towniness, but he hasn't. At all.

...wat

So you kill a PR so the RB can't block that PR anymore, but can instead block the OTHER PR while scum then get to PR-hunt with their shots.

#logic.

pedit: So basically, Nacho does wall readlists as either alignment, and he's good at imitating his town thought process as scum.

So what should I look for if I reread that wall, then?

[BROseidon]

There's close to a week left till dl so this quick sudden surge on SSK looks p bad. Out of Hana, Bert, Gen, and Cephir, I'm looking at Bert and Cephir.

Why are you only looking at 1/2 the wagon, especially when 1 of the people you're ignoring is the guy who's wagon was being countered by the SSK wagon?

[BROseidon]

His doctor claim has gone uncountered. I find it unlikely we have no protective role.

I'm going to go back to the setup-meta point and say that we probably have a JK/BG who can't be 100% sure on the CC, and even if they were biasing towards my train of thought on this would STILL not claim b/c

[BROseidon]

I'm getting a lot of mileage off that line.

[BROseidon]

{casso, bert, desp} would be my first guesses

I also put Ceph in here, in the order of like Casso-Ceph-Bert-Desp.

The people who are commenting on Desp not having that strong of a presence here should read Anything Goes. I don't think his presence there was particularly strong either. In that game it was b/c DGB/Kuribo/Katsuki/TammyMina/MeAP made it pretty hard for anyone else to get heard. This game feels similarly needlessly loud/spammy, although with the spam being substantially less yelling and ad homs and more just... spam...

Since Tammy's dead, I guess Cabd's the only person who I could expect to comment on this, unless anyone has like 4 hours to burn and wants to hate themselves forever.

[BROseidon]

si.

viewtopic.php?f=56&t=29987

Docs blocked different kill mechanics, though.

That'd be like saying FBI Agent and Cop are the same role.

[DOMO]

@ENTIRE THREAD - A CrAzY challenge! Let's try to get an L-1 wagon *before* we hit 100 pages! Can we do it!?!?! Who the heck knows!!!!

This post is surely nacho (it's been trimmed). Thor doesn't use smileys, nacho is more laid back than thor, this seems to show that nacho is also in favour of getting d1 over with. Casso, please confirm who posted this, thanks.

[BROseidon]

I am very very skeptical of this answer. I'm like 99.9% GIF spent a large part of day 1 wanting to kill SC and I'm pretty sure that I spent atleast a post talking about Muffin/SSK etc. So this whole "well I didn't think you thought they were scum" seems rather detached from the game.

That doesn't change the fact that your phrasing was weird and makes the earlier reads feel less legitimate as a result.

[BROseidon]

{casso, bert, desp} would be my first guesses

Why not Cephir?

wait wtf why are you thinking about things the same way I am.

Please stop being too much the voice of goddamn reason. I'm already getting scum vibes from you for the same reason I got scum vibes from Desp in Anything Goes.

Which I know is wrong, but my gut/paranoia are still very strong.

[geists]

pedit: So basically, Nacho does wall readlists as either alignment, and he's good at imitating his town thought process as scum.

So what should I look for if I reread that wall, then?

BRO he's already so good at fooling me I hate giving him any clues about how to do it better next time.

Basically any time I townread him in a game because he did XYZ I've learned to look damn carefully at XYZ in future games.

It comes down to sincerity (which he can fake amazingly well) and effort (which he'll pour on as any alignment), so the read itself comes down to very subtle shades of grey. And the only thing that will firm the read up for me is results. You can argue that the Stuffed Crust lynch wasn't his idea and he didn't have an opportunity to prevent it. This lynch I want him firmly behind.

The people jumping on him about his wording, e.g., "I don't think that's a scum tell for me" are giving me hives. You're not going to find scum-Nacho with that kind of stuff.

[BROseidon]

SSK is almost certainly scum bc setup. there's a gunsmith and a vigilante so it makes sense to put a scumdoc to counter both of them

Scumdoc only checks Vig.

pedit: What I'm most concerned about with Nacho is how quickly the SSK wagon moved once Nacho was under pressure. Regardless of SSK's alignment, someone wanted to move attention elsewhere fast.

[geists]

@ENTIRE THREAD - A CrAzY challenge! Let's try to get an L-1 wagon *before* we hit 100 pages! Can we do it!?!?! Who the heck knows!!!!

This post is surely nacho (it's been trimmed). Thor doesn't use smileys, nacho is more laid back than thor, this seems to show that nacho is also in favour of getting d1 over with. Casso, please confirm who posted this, thanks.

DOMO that's Thor, and (surprise!) he's being sarcastic. Nacho actually picked up the use of at least one smilie to poke fun at Thor's frequent use of it.

[BROseidon]

B. There's somehow an imaginary rule that goes with gunsmith setups or whatever that a doc can only be balanced for scum? Guess what? I'm a town doc in this setup, so that is very clearly wrong.

It's not an imaginary rule. It's a common setup core because it gives scum a stronger position than having a cop/GF does while fulfilling the same purpose.

[Generic]

im a complicated man DOMO, and my threat was more to do with my loss of control than your ability to make a stance and fight the fuck for it.

Fair enough. And yeah I'm totally willing to truce, I do not think you're scum at this stage; for you to be scum you're very good at faking lack of emotional control.

I just had a thought about SSK - if he's scum doc, would he claim town doc? I'm thinking scum RB'er would do well to claim town doc, because if he's tracked, he can explain why he visited a strong towny type player, rather than a scummy type player.

As for SAD, he makes me nervous, but that's largely because he owned me to shit at lylo in our other game. I'm always gonna have a hard time towning SAD. I can happily see him die because he's so fucking dangerous as scum. I'm not sure I've seen him as town before.

I see what you are getting at but there has been a lot of talk about the use of scum doc indicating a gunsmith. It's a very ballsy play but for him to claim town doc as sc doc could be to draw a gunsmith check.

But if he wasn't well versed on mechanics and setup he could be a non doc scum player inviting a counter claim. I've seen it before, but thankfully no counterclaim came.

He could also be town but I think we are dealing with an inexperienced scum team (or a reckless bunch) to not take the optimal play and take him out in the night. I don't see value in wifom on a guy who is known for being scummy looking even as town and also then trying to second guess his night action.

But then maybe that's why tammy was the target, it did seem a little left field even if she was pretty pro town (take into account that she and f16 were the early debate for one being scum, eliminating her is very obvious if trying to frame f16, and if f16 is scum why would he sign off on removing his safety net for doubt?)

I want to lynch SSK because I don't believe he is town, but the more I think on it the more I talk myself out if it, hence my aggressive jump on to try not to let doubt set in. I'm a big boy, I can accept a fuck up if he is town but I can't see it.


Pedit: desp, this can also bring you in, your thoughts on my SSK musings here.

[BROseidon]

It makes no sense to me why a townie would fakeclaim doc.

There are reasons.

If you want to bring in one of the 2 non-normal roles that may be in play the number expands tremendously.

[BROseidon]

Okay, caught up.

Vote's staying on Casso.

Working on the assumption of a scum team of {Casso, SSK, Ceph/Bert/Desp, X, X}.

I think I may need to up both my numbers in 4652 now that I think about it a bit more. 4/3 +/-1 makes more sense given that MC/GM/myself/DOMO were all off the wagon.

[BROseidon]

ftr Bert/Desp could also be in one of those X's. Those three don't have mutual exclusivity.

[BROseidon]

Oh yeah I should also mention that I'm paranoid as fuck about BBQ, but I know that I unreasonably bias towards being paranoid when I feel like other players are being too reasonable.

[DOMO]

@ENTIRE THREAD - A CrAzY challenge! Let's try to get an L-1 wagon *before* we hit 100 pages! Can we do it!?!?! Who the heck knows!!!!

This post is surely nacho (it's been trimmed). Thor doesn't use smileys, nacho is more laid back than thor, this seems to show that nacho is also in favour of getting d1 over with. Casso, please confirm who posted this, thanks.

DOMO that's Thor, and (surprise!) he's being sarcastic. Nacho actually picked up the use of at least one smilie to poke fun at Thor's frequent use of it.

I think I should just always assume it's the other head than the one I first think.

[geists]

@ENTIRE THREAD - A CrAzY challenge! Let's try to get an L-1 wagon *before* we hit 100 pages! Can we do it!?!?! Who the heck knows!!!!

This post is surely nacho (it's been trimmed). Thor doesn't use smileys, nacho is more laid back than thor, this seems to show that nacho is also in favour of getting d1 over with. Casso, please confirm who posted this, thanks.

DOMO that's Thor, and (surprise!) he's being sarcastic. Nacho actually picked up the use of at least one smilie to poke fun at Thor's frequent use of it.

I think I should just always assume it's the other head than the one I first think.

To be fair, there's a slight chance that it was Nacho mimicking Thor. He does that once in a while in some of his hydrae. He does it in Sangres occasionally, mostly to troll me.

[DOMO]

I see what you are getting at but there has been a lot of talk about the use of scum doc indicating a gunsmith. It's a very ballsy play but for him to claim town doc as sc doc could be to draw a gunsmith check.

He claimed before I did, and I didn't drop any crumbs on d1, so he'd be making such a play without knowing there's a gunsmith. I'm not sure scum doc auto means gunsmith from a scum pov, it could mean vig, JOATs, or SK too. Or a decoy. I can't see a scum doc assuming gunsmith as default.

And surely a doc claim makes it less likely a gunsmith will check him out. As soon as it occured to me he could be scum doc, he was crossed off my list of potential investigations.

Thinking more about the RB'er aspect, I don't think he's scum RB'er because I feel like he'd make more effort to stay alive than he has shown. I think if he's scum, he's just given up because he's not of any use in terms of power, he's not going to live long even if he survives today, and him dying today means other scum are protected.