Mini 775 - Hammersmouth Is Under Attack! (Game over)

[Tarballs]

4th Vote Count of Day 3

4 - Sotty7

(iamausername, Artem, kabenon007, Farkshinsoup)

1 - iamausername

(Xtoxm)

3 - Not Voting

(Percy, Pablo Molinero, Sotty7)


With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Deadline: May 28th, 2009

[Xtoxm]

Are we all set for tonight then?

[Artem]

Xtomx tracks kabe

Kabe could be a ninja. That's the only flaw. Other than that, I say the plan is good.

[Xtoxm]

Sotty does actually talk about vig quite a lot, and pushed Kirr pretty hard on the premise she didn't believe the claim.

[Pablo Molinero]

All of this seems awfully hinged on if Sotty is scum. If she isn't, where does it leave us? We have to prepare for all contingencies.

[Percy]

Sotty does actually talk about vig quite a lot, and pushed Kirr pretty hard on the premise she didn't believe the claim.

I agree. I can't see Sotty breadcrumbing the way he did unless he's the vig.

However, I can't see a mafia RBer not blocking Artem. If IAAUN is the Mafia RBer with Fark, I don't know why Fark wouldn't submit the kill and IAAUN block.

Pablo is right, this plan only works if Sotty is scum. Still re-reading, but the 'neatest' scenario in my mind is still IAAUN-as-Jailkeeper blocks Sotty-as-RBer.

[Pablo Molinero]

What's wrong again with IAAUN jailkeeping Sotty and the rest of us targeting Artem (me protecting) for a confirmed list?

[Percy]

Actually, that might work. If we keep Sotty alive and I pass a bullet to Sotty, then if IAAUN-as-townie is the Jailkeeper, then Sotty-as-scum won't get a bullet. However, if IAAUN is just a roleblocker, then blocking Sotty won't prevent to bullet getting through - thus Sotty will have a bullet the next day, and he'll be town and IAAUN scum.


Thus, we lynch kabe. If he's not scum,

Xtomx tracks Sotty
Pablo protects Artem
Fark investigates Artem
IAAUN blocks Sotty
Percy passes to Sotty

IAAUN/Fark scumteam - can't prevent Sotty getting a bullet, so Percy will be NKed by IAAUN, or they'll let it slide and hope to win LyLo. If Fark is the Mafia Doctor, then his name may be on Artem's list. Thus the scum will appear to be one of Sotty or IAAUN, and if Sotty can't be paired up with Pablo or Fark then we're done (e.g. if Fark and Pablo are both on the list, then it must be IAAUN if there was an NK).

Sotty/Fark scumteam - Sotty won't be able to act, so there will either be an NK and Fark will be screwed, or no NK if Fark is mafia doctor who wants to confirm himself. However, the NK can be used on IAAUN, but Sotty (as Mafia RB) still can't act. He does end up with a bullet in this scenario, but it rules out the only other likely scumteam.

Sotty/Pablo - Pablo must target Artem and keep him alive, so Pablo would have to be the mafia doctor. Sotty would be blocked by IAAUN, so this scumteam is busted.

Pablo/Fark - Again, both must target Artem and keep him alive, so this scumteam is also busted.

Fark/Xtomx - Xtomx would have to be the Mafia RBer who blocked Artem on N1, as Fark was blocked by IAAUN. However, there was an NK, so that makes no sense.

Anyone else/Xtomx - Fark is town, "no gun" result, makes no sense. Just reiterating that Xtomx is confirmed town.


What do you think? Will this work? The only snarls I can see are:
-Sotty is a Ninja, so evades Xtomx's watch. However, they would still need to kill IAAUN, and they can't to afford to kill another suspect.
-One of the scum is a hitman. Thus they can kill Artem, which will make Pablo look bad (in a WIFOM way).

XTOMX HEY I ASKED YOU SEVERAL TIMES WHO DID YOU TARGET ON NIGHT ONE PLZKTHXBAI

[iamausername]

XTOMX HEY I ASKED YOU SEVERAL TIMES WHO DID YOU TARGET ON NIGHT ONE PLZKTHXBAI

HEY PERCY XTOXM ANSWERED SEVERAL TIMES THAT OVER DID NOT SEND IN A CHOICE ON NIGHT ONE PLZKTHXBAI

Fark/Xtomx - Xtomx would have to be the Mafia RBer who blocked Artem on N1, as Fark was blocked by IAAUN. However, there was an NK, so that makes no sense.

This logic also applies to Fark/Sotty and Fark/Pablo. The only pairs that make any logical sense to anyone if kabe is town:

Sotty/Pablo (<---- IT'S THIS ONE. THIS IS THE SCUM.)
Artem/Percy
Fark/iam

and, since you didn't mention it:

Artem/Percy: Fark investigates Artem and gets a guilty. Scumbags busted. Or one of them kills Fark, but hey, still busted.

[Percy]

*turbo facepalm*

Sorry Xtomx.

I think we're ready to go.

Vote: kabe

[Pablo Molinero]

Percy

-Sotty is a Ninja, so evades Xtomx's watch. However, they would still need to kill IAAUN, and they can't to afford to kill another suspect.

If they kill IAAUN, then thet's ends up being their nightkill, though, right? What's the hitch here?

Percy

-One of the scum is a hitman. Thus they can kill Artem, which will make Pablo look bad (in a WIFOM way).

Oh, I can appreciate this one, though, but that's a damned powerful role for a town like this.

iiaun

Sotty/Pablo
Artem/Percy
Fark/iam

(Ignoring your ridiculous commentary that has immediately made you shoot up my list...)

Maybe I'm just slow, but I'm having a hard time following this logic that so many possibilities are immediately stripped from the board with that one flip, it seems like you're trying to limit our scope in a disconcerting way. Why can it not be, say:

Sotty/iam
Sotty/Percy
Fark/Artem
Percy/iam
Pablo/...Anyone

?

[Xtoxm]

Well, the plan always goes wrong if we don't lynch the RB today, is the thing. I've stopped trying to think of a foolproof plan, and just scumhunt. I think the night plan is as good as it's going to get.

[Xtoxm]

PM - Iam can

only

be scum with Fark, due to the double block.

Artem got that Percy passed him, so he can only be scum with Percy...But he's town.

Last nights kill was perfomed by Fark, Kab, or PM. So Sotty with anyone but one of those 3 is out.

[Xtoxm]

Although, I don't see why Fark can't be scum with anyone else. Iam, what's your logic?

[Xtoxm]

Oh, cos Fark was jailed. And Artem got blocked. So tehre was no one left to do the kill. So yeh, Fark can only be scum with Iam.

[Pablo Molinero]

Iam said he jailed Fark N1, yes, but what's the conformation that Artem was blocked N1?

[Percy]

If they kill IAAUN, then thet's ends up being their nightkill, though, right? What's the hitch here?

In the event that Sotty is not the roleblocker who was blocked by IAAUN and he is in fact a ninja, then Sotty will still be blocked by IAAUN (I think). So no conflict.

what's the conformation that Artem was blocked N1?

I got no list which means that either nobody targeted me or I was role-blocked.

I passed Artem a bullet N1, so he was blocked.

[Percy]

If IAAUN blocks Artem, then Sotty gets a bullet, and we know either IAAUN or Sotty is scum. If Xtomx reports that Sotty had no night action, Sotty can't be scum as there was a block and a NK. Thus they will kill Xtomx.

Now if Sotty and Pablo are the scumteam, they couldn't block Artem and kill Xtomx - Sotty will be blocked by IAAUN. If they kill IAAUN and block Artem, Xtomx will report movement from Sotty. Thus they can't replicate the required innocence-preserving kills of the IAAUN/Fark scumteam.

If Artem and Percy are the scumteam, then Fark will get a guilty on Artem. Sotty also won't get a bullet, so IAAUN will be confirmed, and therefore Fark. Neither of the other possibilities have a motive to kill Fark, so Fark's death will implicate them.
(Leaving aside how ridiculous it would be for scum to claim self-watcher on Day 1, and for there to be a 0-shot vig without a bulletsmith!)




If kabe is scum, then if his parter is:

-Xtomx - Fark got a not guilty, so we don't have to worry about him.
-Fark - kabe would have to be the blocker, as Fark was imprisoned N1.
-Percy - Would have to be the mafia doctor (as he targetted Artem N2), and kabe the blocker.
-Artem - How would he know I passed him a bullet last night? Also stupid claim.
-Pablo - Possible blocker.
-IAAUN - Two blockers makes no sense.
-Sotty - Possible blocker.

Thus the field is narrowed to Percy, Sotty, Pablo or Fark. Therefore:

-Xtomx tracks Sotty
-IAAUN imprisons Fark
-Fark investigates Artem
-Pablo protects Artem
-Percy passes to Artem

If Sotty is scum, he would have no choice but to either forgo his kill or kill Xtomx. If he also blocks Artem, that clears Fark and Percy, as they can't be blockers.

If Percy is scum, he can't kill Artem, so he's screwed.

If Pablo is scum, he could kill Artem, but as the only one who can, he'd implicate himself.

If Fark is scum, he can't do anything - he can't be the blocker, so he'd be blocked. If there are no NKs and all the others check out, Fark is toast.



So, yeah. Man up and vote, scumteam - I think we've got you cornered, even if kabe is innocent.

[Farkshinsoup]

unvote

.

I'm useless at this stuff. Really.

[Pablo Molinero]

I passed Artem a bullet N1, so he was blocked.

If he does not have a gun, will he be informed?

[Percy]

He's a Self-Watcher. He should have received my name at the start of Day 2 on his list.

[Xtoxm]

PM is grasping at straws now, Artem is town.

The only possible teams are:

{Fark, Iam}
{Artem, Percy}
{Sotty, PM, Kab}

I'm happy to accept Artem-Percy as town.

I'm close to happy accepting Iam-Fark as town too, in which case it wouldn't matter which of the last 3 were scum, we have a mislynch.

I think I have it:

Iam jails me.
PM -> Artem
Percy -> Artem (Why not?)
Fark -> Artem
X -> Sotty. Or Iam?

Now, this means Iam-Fark scum would have to block me and have Fark doc Artem, or I would get a result. This means they have to kill me, or kill no-one. Killing no-one gives us a mislynch. This means Iam would have to kill me, and would be unable to block anyone. So Artem would get PM-town on his list.

But, this would not be possible if Iam-Fark were infact town. PM has to be on Artem's list, so he can't kill me. So if Sotty is the RB, as 2 scum alive, she can't block and kill. So it's not possible for me to die.

Sotty RB could block Artem, but can't also block Iam. So I can't be killed. This means I will be alive to confirm I was jailed, confirming Iam as town, and in turn Fark. So we'd know that Sotty-PM were the scum.

Other options for Sotty-PM. Block Iam, PM target Artem. Means they can't kill, town has enough mislynches to try one from each. Town win.

Other scenarios -

Fark claims blocked. Percy is dead. This is only possible if Iam-Fark are scum.

Artem is dead - Sotty/PM blocked Iam. PM/Sotty killed Artem. Or. Iam blocked PM. Fark killed Artem. But, I got a result. On someone that shouldn't have. (Namely Iam or Sotty)

I *think* this may be foolproof. Can someone check it? Percy?

[Xtoxm]

Percy dead works out in a similar to the Artem dead scenario.

[Pablo Molinero]

He's a Self-Watcher. He should have received my name at the start of Day 2 on his list.

Right. This crap is hard to keep track of.

[Pablo Molinero]

And I *think* that's solid, X, but you guys have a better knack (obviously) for this than I do.

vote: kabe