Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756

[Qanqan]

eh, I'm sticking to Emp's past rolls

Vote: Lynx the Antithesis

Since stopping what we're doing midstream would be bad.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

So are we gonna go with me or Emp for it?

[Trumpet of Doom]

grumble grumble making me redo the numbers...

I don't care whether we roll dice all at once or roll dice for each new day, it'll have the same effect.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Well we should first decide if we're gonna go with the four originally or roll again each day.

[zwetschenwasser]

We should go with the four. Ort is probably trying to manipulate us awayf rom lynching Empking's rolls.

Vote: Lynx the Antithesis

[Corvuus]

orolan: why roll again now?

Vote Lynx

C

[zwetschenwasser]

He's doing the scum manipulation thing I mentioned Day 1.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Go with the four? Okay.

Vote: Lynx The Antithesis

Once I finish redoing the numbers, I'll get them posted again.

[Trumpet of Doom]

Well, I have good news and bad news.

The good news is that at the start of the game, the chances of winning via random lynch don't drop much if we factor in that guards and king only need to outnumber rebels to win - ~60%
win, ~40% loss.

However,

(and this is the bad news) if we lynch a rebel D1 (which we did), our chances drop to ~53%.

[Lynx The Antithesis]

Alright

Unvote,Vote:Lynx

Might as well speed up this process. Now before I'm dead you guys should decide how you're going to proceed after the four random selected are lynched. Once you have a plan DO NOT deviate from it. When our numbers start to slip scum will try to manipulate the lynches. Be suspicious of anyone who tries to take the reins of the town's plans. We're leaving this up to chance which is dangerous, but I have a strong feeling we'll land on the king randomly eventually.

[ortolan]

I didn't actually realise Empking had rolled four times, sorry LOL.

Vote: Lynx

However,

(and this is the bad news) if we lynch a rebel D1 (which we did), our chances drop to ~53%.

This doesn't matter- by mislynching day one we reduced our chances of winning irrespective of following a plan. Plus even now we have an above-chance chance of winning

[sekinj]

End of Day 2

(# of votes against) Voted Player - by Voter(s)

(0) BlakAdder
(0) orangepenguin
(0) Corvuus
(0) Empking

(6) Lynx The Antithesis - by Corvuus, Lynx The Antithesis, ortolan, Qanqan, Trumpet of Doom, zwetschenwasser

(0) Numberfourteen
(0) ortolan
(0) Qanqan
(0) Zachrulez
(0) Trumpet of Doom
(0) zwetschenwasser

And Lynx The Antithesis walked docilely to the chopping block carrying the axe himself. Another Rebel bites the dust!

Mod Notes:
- Seeking replacement for the following lurkers: BlakAdder, Numberfourteen

[sekinj]

Begin Day 3!!

[Trumpet of Doom]

Next up: orangepenguin.

Vote: orangepenguin

I would point out, though, that if OP's rebel, we're in LyLo tomorrow.

[ortolan]

Vote: orangepenguin

[Empking]

Vote: Orange penguin

[ortolan]

I should have objected to this earlier but unfortunately inattentiveness got the better of me-

the ways these names were selected was not truly random- Empking was ambiguous in which of the two interpretations of his dice roll he gave and if he were a king or guard could simply have chosen four that didn't include the king, or if neither had the king the one with the fewest guards.

That said I don't think it's likely in Empking's case, but am dissapointed someone more vigilant than I did not pick it up.

And it's impossible to fix now also, because if we do so we get the WIFOM of whether this is a king/guard motivated move.

[Empking]

Its not ambigious at me from a lst and the dice rall. If somebody chooses something each roll goes down each time that means they're doing it the way we're doing it.

Ort, really doesn't want us to use these dice rolls does he.

[ortolan]

I do not understand the above post.

But I'm happy to go with the dice rolls presently. I'm not sure now whether it was actually the optimal strategy at all, but to try to derail it, which I'm not trying to do, would be self-evidently scummy.

[Empking]

I do not understand the above post.
.

Nor do I.

If I made the rolls anything but the rolls we have now everyone would know I was lying.

[ortolan]

actually nevermind you rolled a 12 sided, then 11 sided, then 10 sided, then 9 sided which implies your way anyway.

My bad.

Lynch orangepenguin

[zwetschenwasser]

Vote: Orangepenguin

I wonder if our mod is getting mad at us...

[Qanqan]

Vote: orangepenguin

heh, this bandwaggoning is fun :S

[zwetschenwasser]

WAKACHAKAI!!

[Empking]

Wow A King Ate Chicken Heart As Kong Amazed Ireland?