Since stopping what we're doing midstream would be bad.
Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756
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Qanqan Townie
- Townie
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- Posts: 91
- Joined: January 18, 2009
- Location: Shhh
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Lynx The Antithesis Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 657
- Joined: December 3, 2008
- Location: The Sun
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Trumpet of Doom Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1029
- Joined: December 22, 2008
- Location: Baker! Hell yeah!
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Lynx The Antithesis Goon
- Goon
- Goon
- Posts: 657
- Joined: December 3, 2008
- Location: The Sun
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zwetschenwasser Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Posts: 8722
- Joined: December 7, 2008
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Corvuus Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1011
- Joined: October 21, 2008
- Location: San Diego
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zwetschenwasser Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Posts: 8722
- Joined: December 7, 2008
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Trumpet of Doom Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1029
- Joined: December 22, 2008
- Location: Baker! Hell yeah!
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Trumpet of Doom Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1029
- Joined: December 22, 2008
- Location: Baker! Hell yeah!
Well, I have good news and bad news.
The good news is that at the start of the game, the chances of winning via random lynch don't drop much if we factor in that guards and king only need to outnumber rebels to win - ~60%
win, ~40% loss.
However,(and this is the bad news) if we lynch a rebel D1 (which we did), our chances drop to ~53%.Discretion is the better part of valor.
If I helped lynch you, you deserved it.
Retired from playing for the foreseeable future.-
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Lynx The Antithesis Goon
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- Posts: 657
- Joined: December 3, 2008
- Location: The Sun
AlrightUnvote,Vote:Lynx
Might as well speed up this process. Now before I'm dead you guys should decide how you're going to proceed after the four random selected are lynched. Once you have a plan DO NOT deviate from it. When our numbers start to slip scum will try to manipulate the lynches. Be suspicious of anyone who tries to take the reins of the town's plans. We're leaving this up to chance which is dangerous, but I have a strong feeling we'll land on the king randomly eventually.If you got it flaunt it.
-Judas Iscariot-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4158
- Joined: October 27, 2008
I didn't actually realise Empking had rolled four times, sorry LOL.
Vote: Lynx
This doesn't matter- by mislynching day one we reduced our chances of winning irrespective of following a plan. Plus even now we have an above-chance chance of winningTrumpet of Doom (208) wrote:However,(and this is the bad news) if we lynch a rebel D1 (which we did), our chances drop to ~53%.-
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sekinj Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2070
- Joined: June 21, 2008
- Location: Moving to San Antonio
End of Day 2
(# of votes against) Voted Player - by Voter(s)
(0) BlakAdder
(0) orangepenguin
(0) Corvuus
(0) Empking
(6) Lynx The Antithesis - by Corvuus, Lynx The Antithesis, ortolan, Qanqan, Trumpet of Doom, zwetschenwasser
(0) Numberfourteen
(0) ortolan
(0) Qanqan
(0) Zachrulez
(0) Trumpet of Doom
(0) zwetschenwasser
And Lynx The Antithesis walked docilely to the chopping block carrying the axe himself. Another Rebel bites the dust!
Mod Notes:
- Seeking replacement for the following lurkers: BlakAdder, NumberfourteenLast edited by sekinj on Sat Mar 07, 2009 5:21 pm, edited 4 times in total.Show-sekinj
To Do:
├óÔé¼┬ó [s]Find a job[/s]
├óÔé¼┬ó [s]Find an apartment[/s]
├óÔé¼┬ó Pack
├óÔé¼┬ó Move-
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sekinj Mafia Scum
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Trumpet of Doom Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 1029
- Joined: December 22, 2008
- Location: Baker! Hell yeah!
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ortolan Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 4158
- Joined: October 27, 2008
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Empking Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Posts: 16758
- Joined: May 4, 2008
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ortolan Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 4158
- Joined: October 27, 2008
I should have objected to this earlier but unfortunately inattentiveness got the better of me-
the ways these names were selected was not truly random- Empking was ambiguous in which of the two interpretations of his dice roll he gave and if he were a king or guard could simply have chosen four that didn't include the king, or if neither had the king the one with the fewest guards.
That said I don't think it's likely in Empking's case, but am dissapointed someone more vigilant than I did not pick it up.
And it's impossible to fix now also, because if we do so we get the WIFOM of whether this is a king/guard motivated move.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
Feel free to PM me to be ready in case I need a replacement.-
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Empking Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Posts: 16758
- Joined: May 4, 2008
Its not ambigious at me from a lst and the dice rall. If somebody chooses something each roll goes down each time that means they're doing it the way we're doing it.
Ort, really doesn't want us to use these dice rolls does he.Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi-
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ortolan Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 4158
- Joined: October 27, 2008
I do not understand the above post.
But I'm happy to go with the dice rolls presently. I'm not sure now whether it was actually the optimal strategy at all, but to try to derail it, which I'm not trying to do, would be self-evidently scummy.Currently modding Mole Mafia: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=20529
Feel free to PM me to be ready in case I need a replacement.-
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Empking Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Posts: 16758
- Joined: May 4, 2008
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ortolan Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Posts: 4158
- Joined: October 27, 2008
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zwetschenwasser Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Posts: 8722
- Joined: December 7, 2008
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Qanqan Townie
- Townie
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- Posts: 91
- Joined: January 18, 2009
- Location: Shhh
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zwetschenwasser Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Doktor der Musik
- Posts: 8722
- Joined: December 7, 2008
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Empking Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Empking's Alt's Alt
- Posts: 16758
- Joined: May 4, 2008
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