Mafia 105 - Caught in the Crossfire (Game Over)

zoraster · Post Post #1975 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2010 3:08 am

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Night time again. The town was discouraged. They had only managed to lynch one scum, and it was just that crazy serial killer. Perhaps today would be different. It would be more difficult, though, without fhqwhgads.

fhqwhgads the Vanilla Townie was killed

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Day 7 begins. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to reach a majority. The deadline will occur on Saturday the 16th at 11am EST.

SpyreX · Post Post #1976 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:47 am

Huzzah.

Lets play a game of "who could the partners be"

Pads:
Pops - maaaybe. The giant case and the push for a vote at 6 left just doesn't click right for a bus BUT who knows.
Hiphop - this I could see. Hiphop has been the bridesmaid a lot but never the bride and all things considered with how often hiphop has been named scum well.
Shotty - I can't decide about the power bus. IF we had lynched at 6 left (haha) that bus could have been the win.

Pops:
Hiphop - I'd be surprised. The "one mafia" theory pushed out would make bussing your partner really weird at that point.
Shotty - This I could see. Namely the yin to the yang of the hiphop. However switching the next day to putting the vote down? Why be that concrete and then waste the effort put in at minimal pressure the next day?

Hiphop:
Shotty - This is truly the X factor setup. No votes from either on the other. Very mellow interactions for the most part. Up until late yesterday when he implores me to look at pops or shotty over pads. Odd.

So, really, and I can't decide one way or another on this yet: would scum in the 6 person have tried a bus (knowing full well the traction on a nolynch) or would they have gambled harder for the win together?

If its the former, well... considering the love-love Shotty gets from, well, everyone I dont even know but it would pin him.
If its the latter, I'd definitely say Hiphop/Pads.

Regardless, and I want to be clear about this:

Once we reach a lynch (barring madness hammers) keep the votes there. Don't him and haw in the twilight.

popsofctown · Post Post #1977 (ISO) » Wed Jan 06, 2010 2:10 pm

Or Spyrex will CUT you.

(am jokeposting because i don't have time for realposting)

SpyreX · Post Post #1978 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:33 pm

And all is quiet on the western front, once again.

Pads · Post Post #1979 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:57 pm

The following is my kill analysis for the potential scum teams. It assumes three things. a) Pads is town, b) Shotty is scum, c) There are two scum remaining.

Shotty-SpyreX

Hiphop - This team is clearly playing for a Pads mislynch, playing on suspicion of a Hiphop/Pads scumteam. Doesn't work if Hiphop is dead.

Pads - Same as above.

Fhq - This is the townie misvote they need to win. No way they kill him.

Pops - Hasn't shown any real interest in voting Pads, and his death makes Pads looks worse. This is their kill.

Shotty-Hiphop

Likely waiting for the SpyreX on Pads vote for the win.

SpyreX - Left alive.

Pads - Same

Fhq - Declared Pads as his top suspect. They might kill him to make Pads look worse.

Pops - They'd probably be glad to get rid of Hiphop's assailant, and now that the heat has died down, it's less suspicious to kill him. Killing Pops leaves both Fhq and SpyreX in, counting on atleast one to lay a misvote.

Shotty-Pops

If this is the scum team, they're probably suffering a little from 'deer in the headlights' after being called out yesterday. They could reasonably do anything, although most likely they'd leave SpyreX and Pads alive to slapfight.

Hiphop - Killing him makes Pops looks a little worse, and closes the door on any Pads/Hiphop scum team theories after they were the only two that didn't No Lynch yesterday.

Fhq - A much safer bet. Leaves the idea of Pads/Hiphop open, and makes Pads look worse.

So, my conclusion, is that Shotty-SpyreX would have most likely killed Pops, and Shotty-Hiphop likely would have, too.

The Fhq death is much more indicative of Shotty-Pops scumteam, and maybe the play of the Shotty-Hiphop team. I find it pretty unlikely that Shotty-SpyreX would have killed Fhq.

Single scum theories:

Since we're not at lynch or lose, the single scum needs to play a little differently today, knowing he has to answer for it tomorrow. I really don't have many thoughts on the subject yet, but if we mislynch today and we're still here tomorrow, I'll deal with it then.

Either way:

Vote: Shotty to the Body

"zomg-pads-scum-early-votezorz!"

We had a week of discussion already, and I think we're out of self destructive policies, so how about we lynch scum?

SpyreX · Post Post #1980 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:15 pm

....

That is a lot of words based solely around you being the mislynch. That all the machinations hinge on that.

AND not even entertaining other options? So, in essence this could be boiled down from line one to lynching shotty?

Awesome.

WELP,

Vote: Pads

hiphop · Post Post #1981 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:21 pm

Pads wrote:
Vote: Shotty to the Body

"zomg-pads-scum-early-votezorz!"

We had a week of discussion already, and I think we're out of self destructive policies, so how about we lynch scum?

I agree, but I want to wait a little more before I vote.

I still don't understand why we had four votes for a no lynch. Let me ask this :

Shotty did the nk really change your mind on who you were going to vote for?
Pops same question, Spyrex you too.

At the very worse we could of had a tie yesterday. 3 vs. 3. That in itself would be a no lynch. Am I missing something?

Spyrex I voted for shotty yesterday. Did you see my vote? I agree with the part that we should not change it, but if we do hit scum all townies need to be on board. If we have four votes (encouraging this) scum can't switch at the last second to get a tie or a mislynch. If we do get four votes that does not mean that the person who has the four votes is not scum. Scum could bus to create the misconception. That is why I would rather have lynched yesterday, when we could get four townies to vote for someone. Hopefully your plan does not backfire.

SpyreX · Post Post #1982 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:28 pm

Again. If Shotty is town, the maneuver yesterday ended the game.

Yes, what was the most likely scenario (FHQ-town, FHQ-NK) happened, but that still eliminates a set of variables.

Yesterday, in order to achieve a lynch, we would have needed "all the townies" just the same as we do now. (Or a bus, just like now).

Nothing has changed. A variable was removed. That is it.

IF for whatever wacky reason they had NK'd someone else we'd be having a different discussion today.

Pads · Post Post #1983 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:35 pm

Have I mentioned how much fun it's been having you post ten minutes after me, like, 80% of the time,?

I'm writing for another game, I'll be back here when I'm done.

SpyreX · Post Post #1984 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 9:43 pm

I post ten minutes after EVERYONE in this game like 80% of the time. I'm an equal opportunity hater.

Thats now been up for far, far too long.

Pads · Post Post #1985 (ISO) » Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:42 pm

Perhaps.

Okay, SpyreX. Here's a little exercise for you.

Start with the assumption that I'm town.

I know it hurts. Just try it.

Okay, ready?

Now, as town, am I totally unreasonable in thinking that the scum's plan for the win is mislynching me?

What else is going on? My case on Shotty and your suspicion of me, and that's it.

Here's another exercise. Assume you and I are both town. Go on, try it out.

Is it entirely unreasonable to think that the scum are leaving us alive so that you can put the bad vote on me?

As for me not talking about non-Shotty scum options. Well.... uh.. are you considering non-Pads-scum options? Not really. Not in any of the last three (six?) days posts, as far as I can tell. So I'm not sure how that makes me scum if it doesn't make you scum, too.

Well, at any rate, let's hope your 24 hour a day vigilance of the thread is alert for the second Pads vote coming down. If not, well, then I'll die with a scum's name on my lips.

popsofctown · Post Post #1986 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:54 am

Player by player analysis

Pads: He really scumhunts, to be honest. But I tend not to agree with bunches of it. Doesn't give me a good gut feeling when I read his posts, but on paper, he plays the game more than any living player it seems.

Spyrex: Spyrex is town. It's mostly gut. Also, he's been off some of the key mislynch wagons.

Shotty to the Body: I shouldn't have voted Sotty. "Defenses are overrated", and he active lurked this game. What scumhunting he does do isn't that impressive. I think this game I need to ignore my gut and favor Shotty rather than Pads.

Hiphop: Scumhunts less than any other player, horrible D1 play. Pads-hiphop is a reason I'd want to vote Pads, because Pads somehow defended this utterly crappy player. (I'd prolly want to see a hiphop flip first). Hiphop admitted to lying, but some of the other townies seem to think that's not a big deal since he was essentially honest about it, so maybe I overreacted. In general, great minds think alike, and players I have pegged for town are gunning more for Shotty than hiphop, so I'm going to delegate a bit and vote Shotty.

I'm going to vote shotty, but I'm gonna wait for a some discussion first.

Shotty to the Body · Post Post #1987 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:56 am

Sorry, but what do you mean we ended the game yesterday?

At any rate I obviously support lynching Pads, I'll rearticulate my case in full form when I get back later.

zoraster · Post Post #1988 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:00 am

Let's get a vote count up in here:

Vote Count, Day 7

hiphop ( 0 )
shotty to the body ( 1 ) Pads
Pads ( 1 ) SpyreX
popsofctown ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
No Lynch ( 0 )
Unvote ( 3 ) popsofctown Shotty to the Body hiphop
Total Votes ( 5 )

With 5 alive, 3 needed for a majority.
Deadline is January 16th, 11am EST

Pads · Post Post #1989 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:01 am

Okay, Pops. Let's have some discussion.

SpyreX

I"ve had precisely one previous game where I had another player take some slight offense at my Day 1 play, and demand my head on a pike for the rest of the game. I was town, and that player was scum. I was even at L-1 at one point in that game, and I was able to convince the rest of the game that I was town, but not him. He was never swayed for one moment of the game. What I said previously - that SpyreX might be a scum who doesn't know how to drop suspicion without (from his point of view) looking suspicious - is a possibility that comes back to my mind, over and over again.

If you look at all the slapfights we've had, it usually goes like this. SpyreX brings up a point, I defend against the point, SpyreX posts again bringing up new points, ignoring the original points and the defense against them. He almost never stays on a single point of debate. That's indicative of a person who's not really arguing, discussing, learning, deciding, and debating. It's much more indicative of a person who's already got the conclusion, and is trying to find as many reasons as possible to justify it.

His case against me is mostly that he doesn't like my style of play (as you might imagine, I get that a lot), because there's not much else to point fingers at me for. I've come down on the right side of the last two lynches, (denouncing them, in fact) and I correctly fingered Elvis and Charter for scum. There's a reason I keep repeating "Have you guys seen Pads' latest post? It proves he's scum!", because that, and the fact that I didn't have a strong read on him back on Day 1, is about all his suspicion of me is based on.

SpyreX's odd reveal of a guilty conscience yesterday may be telling, as well. He thought he was the auto lynch after a scumShotty lynch. I'm not sure where that came from, since my case was on Pops-Shotty scum team.

While I do feel the kill does point away from a Shotty-SpyreX team, as I mentioned earlier in the day, it does not eliminate it. One point I didn't discuss previously is that scum usually loathe killing townies that have a town read on them. That may explain townPops surviving the night.

Hiphop

I understand your suspicion of him, I really do. His behavior has been jumpy and, as often as not, not instantly justifiable. I don't remember exactly off hand, but I do believe he earned my vote a time or two during this game. I don't really think he lied, I think he just made a mistake. I think the word lie word was used by someone else and he, unfortunatley for him, repeated it, and it stuck.

He's been doing research and looking back through the thread. Of course, anybody can quote stuff from the past, but I've never gotten the impression that he's quoting what's convenient for him. He's quoting what's there, and he's adjusting his opinion based on what he's seen.

If you're considering a Pads-Hiphop scum team, I don't mind. It's healthy. But if that thought is based solely on my defense of him, then:

a) I was called Zakeri's obvbuddy for defending him
b) I was called Sotty's obvbuddy for defending her

And now that I think about it, I seem to recall both accusations coming out of SpyreX.

Pads · Post Post #1990 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:07 am

"I think the word lie word was used by someone else and he, unfortunatley for him, repeated it, and it stuck. "

-word

SpyreX · Post Post #1991 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 12:51 pm

So... I'm scum now again? I just like to keep track for the giant board - I mean, not like this all started with you waffling on just that point, rite?

Pads wrote:If you look at all the slapfights we've had, it usually goes like this. SpyreX brings up a point, I defend against the point, SpyreX posts again bringing up new points, ignoring the original points and the defense against them. He almost never stays on a single point of debate. That's indicative of a person who's not really arguing, discussing, learning, deciding, and debating. It's much more indicative of a person who's already got the conclusion, and is trying to find as many reasons as possible to justify it.

Show it. Go ahead and how you bring up a "defense" and me just ignoring it and moving on my merry way. Pretty sure if you could show such an amazing outcome I'd get lynched as power scum right there.

Course, oddly enough, this isn't happening.

As for me not talking about non-Shotty scum options. Well.... uh.. are you considering non-Pads-scum options? Not really. Not in any of the last three (six?) days posts, as far as I can tell. So I'm not sure how that makes me scum if it doesn't make you scum, too.

Nah I totally haven't done that at all. Not like... on this page or anything. Silly me.

Compare that to "everything I'm posting is based on the point that Shotty is scum".

popsofctown · Post Post #1992 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:41 pm

I was hoping for discussion that wasn't a Spyrex-Pads slapfight.

SpyreX · Post Post #1993 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:44 pm

The only thing I'm fairly confident about is you being town.

So, if you opt to roll with the shotty lynch I can't stop it.

I'm not about to let things like the above just slide by - but, really, go ahead and look back at Pads and I and tell me if I'm off my rocker when getting my heckles raised at the idea I'm attacking / deflecting my issues with Pads (which apparently are just gameplay).

popsofctown · Post Post #1994 (ISO) » Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:03 pm

Spyrex, can I have the top 5 scummy things Pads has done? As a refresher. Yes I could dig, but restatement always comes differently and sometimes good comes of it.

Also, what are your objections to Shotty lynch?

SpyreX · Post Post #1995 (ISO) » Sat Jan 09, 2010 8:34 am

I'll try to get that to you this weekend. I get to go to meetings huzzah.

My biggest objection to the Shotty lynch, really, is the people "on it" right now.

I can't swallow a bus in this scenario. The fact that Pads and Hiphop AND you have all expressed being cool with it AND the fact I'm town means that, ultimately, this isn't so hot.

popsofctown · Post Post #1996 (ISO) » Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:10 pm

I don't think any player is under so much pressure that scum will bus either.
Hm.

From my PoV, I expect Spyrex, me, and some other player who is actually town to lynch scum. I'm not sure I can lynch Shotty without Spyrex on board.

SpyreX · Post Post #1997 (ISO) » Sat Jan 09, 2010 8:39 pm

I'm still working on the pads but, for the sake of discussion, lets follow that thought process:

You think I'm town.
You are town.
One other is town.
You also think the scum aren't bussing.
We are assuming 2 scum are left.

It requires all three of said town to lynch a scum.

Of the three not discussed two (other than you) have professed desire to lynch someone that is not either you nor I.

Therefore, by nature, the person that is desired to lynch would be... town!

And, process of elimination says the two lynching would be the scum.

hiphop · Post Post #1998 (ISO) » Sun Jan 10, 2010 9:54 am

I made up my mind.

vote shotty

This puts him at L-1.

Spyrex think about this way. Two people(pads and me) express desire to lynch shotty. The lone scum doesn't want to go agaisnt the town so he busses. Now tomorrow he doesn't stand out by not being the lone man off the wagon. It reminds me of my first game. Where at the end Zorblag said he would have bussed his partner without a second doubt in lylo if the town showed desire to do so. Same thing here. If you vote pads and shotty votes pads, when the time is almst out pops switches and scum win. Even if you are the fourth vote put it on, and make it impossible for scum to lynch town.

Pops saying he doesn't think scum is bussing is only his way of:
a)redirecting to get people to look the other way. (Off of Shotty)
b) give the idea that he isn't aligned with shotty.

Right now it looks like pops is testing the waters, and his desire to lynch shotty is just words without a vote.

Of course it is possible that shotty is a lone scum and four townies want him lynched.

Think about that.

SpyreX · Post Post #1999 (ISO) » Sun Jan 10, 2010 10:36 am

Ok pops the abridged version:

1.) The early game absence of stances on well, anything. Especially the stance regarding my wagon.
2.) The whole "hit and SpyreX are scum who planned in night to attack me" business. With its brother "the back burner".
3.) Iso 19. Iso 28. Iso 37. Iso 38. Iso 43.
4.) The bouncing, much like 1, about me all game. I've been an SK, Town briefly, Lyncher and then Scum. Really, the biggest change has been.....the amount of pressure I've put on pads.
5.) Shotty wants to out the vig is anti town (32), then flat out asks for the claim (36).
6.) Iso 34. Considering what we've seen this sure serves as a clearing position on someone. Interrresting.
7.) Look at the case on you 55. Compare it to what Pads himself had done on some key points. Cognitive dissonance is awesome.
8.) Iso 68. The all scum machinations have been to lead us to this point where I have been left for a mislynch business.

---

I made up my mind.
vote shotty This puts him at L-1.

Spyrex think about this way. Two people(pads and me) express desire to lynch shotty. The lone scum doesn't want to go agaisnt the town so he busses. Now tomorrow he doesn't stand out by not being the lone man off the wagon. It reminds me of my first game. Where at the end Zorblag said he would have bussed his partner without a second doubt in lylo if the town showed desire to do so. Same thing here. If you vote pads and shotty votes pads, when the time is almst out pops switches and scum win. Even if you are the fourth vote put it on, and make it impossible for scum to lynch town.

Pops saying he doesn't think scum is bussing is only his way of:
a)redirecting to get people to look the other way. (Off of Shotty)
b) give the idea that he isn't aligned with shotty.

Right now it looks like pops is testing the waters, and his desire to lynch shotty is just words without a vote.

Of course it is possible that shotty is a lone scum and four townies want him lynched.

Think about that.

Where to begin with this one.

Is it "lone scum" or a scumteam? That is kind of important and you're bouncing around between both ideas as they fit.

You've accused Pops of not being willing to put down his vote but then put it in a position where he couldn't put down his vote.

All of your issues via voting are eliminated very easily:

If everyone isn't voting as deadline approaches, the person not voting is lynched.
If someone changes a vote after deadline, that person is lynched.

Treat this like a normal lylo. Because it is. If pops is scum its going to be game. He is the deciding vote.