My Little Pony: Friendship is Redemption (Over)

[Konowa]

For that same reason, Trixie is likely town.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Believing an all town wagon with how bad Godot played is hard to believe.

That's because you haven't really processed the mountain of evidence in favour of that supposition (i.e. almost everyone on the wagon flipping town) and are still trying to judge it by how likely it is for any random game wherein Godot gets lynched D1 to have an all-town wagon (which is fairly slim, yes). If you really believe in wagon analysis, then sure from your perspective it'll be a slight scum tell against Feysal but you really have to come at from this fallacious "how likely is an all town wagon without taking into account all the things I know? Let's pretend that likelihood is still magically relevant" perspective to make a meaningful point out of it.

[Konowa]

It's not just the wagon analysis, but that combined with the points I have raised (which you find boring). What am I missing about these points that I raised that don't make sense with Feysal being scum?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The points are just stuff that sounds reasonable at first but when I think about what I expect Feysalscum to do, it just doesn't match up. Your Raritycounterwagonthing also contradicts the "Godotwagon can't be all town" one.

[Rainbowdash]

Vote Count

Feysal (1) - Konowa
Konowa (1) - DJ P0n-3

Not Voting (3) - fatlikepig, Feysal, Cogito Ergo Sum

With 5 alive it takes 3 to kick somepony out of town
Deadline is October 20th, 5PM PST

Feysal prodded

[Konowa]

So deadline is just over 48 hours away.
I know I'm part to blame for this but we need to start moving in a direction.

CES I realize you said after studies, but if not Feysal then who?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oh, you're definitely getting lynched. I'm just looking for a back-up option at this point.

[Feysal]

You guys don't have to stop posting because I'm catching up, you know. There's a whole thread of things you can draw my attention to specifically.

I am late, but welcome to the game. I feel there is very little left to be said, and I was ready to lynch Konowa when Rarity replaced out. I still am in fact.

VOTE: Konowa

I have explained my reasons over several posts today, but to summarize, I believe him to be Friendship because of process of elimination and using wagon analysis to mislead town. I am certain of you being town. I am much more confident of DJ also than I was earlier today, and even if she was Friendship, she would not be allied with Trixie. This leaves Konowa and Trixie as the most likely Friendship pair if there are two left, Konowa being the certain one due to being the only player who could be partner with anyone else. Even if there is only one Friendship left, Konowa is a strong suspect. Agreeing with his wagon analysis was pretty much the only reason I ever trusted him, and now it has turned out to have been a red herring.

About DJ, I would prefer to save my realization about her until tomorrow, but I think I can reveal one part of it now. Konowa claimed Spike, and DJ claimed Gilda, and I find it unlikely that both non-ponies would be Friendship. This is a different kind of probability than wagon analysis, since wagons are the result of player actions where anything can and does happen. Designing roles and false claims is up to one person, and every moderator I have ever played with has avoided similarities between false claims.

I don't feel like explaining in length how my Godot read developed, but to be brief, I did indeed believe him to be town early on. Then three things happened that changed my mind. The first was his terrible answer to my question in his last post, followed by his replacement out without warning. Then chamber pointed out how Godot's claim included no motivation to stay Discord aligned. That gave me a new angle to look at his claim from and compare it to my own role, and I saw what chamber meant.

I was then distracted by the fight between Rarity and DJ. I don't think the accusation that I would have pushed Rarity as a counterwagon holds water either. Firstly, Arugula was not even the top wagon and was losing steam. Secondly, I continued to listen to what Rarity had to say and was the first to unvote her, saying I found her more town. Thirdly, Arugula was one of two people I said I would look into when I unvoted. Finally, I don't think my position on the wagon was convenient at all, rather it was up to random chance. What happened to Arugula was a flash wagon, and it depended more on who happened to be online than any other factor. Even then the Salamence wagon was only one vote behind Arugula, but I had no interest in it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fairly close to being fully caught up.

Some notes:
Regardless of what people in-thread said, Trixie played a perfectly competent scum game first MLP behaviourally (we didn't role-cop him for nothing). So if he looked townier later on than he did the first two Days, well, I wouldn't count that for that much.

I don't like how Konowa and Trixie both seem to sidestep the Godot/Arugulawagon for the most part.

Top 3 Town Picks:
Trixie (fatlikepig or whatever)

I don't see why Arugula is calling him Trixie and then also adding his real username after. This feels weird. Like something that got planned in a scum QT (daytalk seems plausible enough here for a 3-man scum team.)

I replaced Derpy Hooves in both of Dash's MLP games - once the player/alt, once the role.

[fatlikepig]

I don't see why Arugula is calling him Trixie and then also adding his real username after. This feels weird. Like something that got planned in a scum QT (daytalk seems plausible enough here for a 3-man scum team.)

What exactly is the scum motivation behind that?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Shake it up and do something unexpected (well, unexpected coming from the tame-looking Arugula) by including a buddy in the top 3 town reads (reads he never ended up explaining either) to buy the buddy some towncred.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Or he could've just asked for some help coming up with fake reads.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Daytalking scum intentionally trying to turn vca into a tool that works in their favour is also fairly consistent with that trixie fake townread theory I mentioned just now.

I think I could go for lynching fatlikepig Today actually. Konowa, switch over.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Vikill clearly implicates Trixie by the bye.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Fully caught up and stuff.

Let's lynch Trixie.

[Konowa]

unvote;

Deadline is approaching, but I want to hear from DJ first.

[DJ P0n-3]

CES, your case for Feysal-town is unconvincing for me. It amounts to nothing more than "Feysal's not playing to his scum meta of 'incompetent and obvious', therefore he's town. Trust me", which of course I cannot do. Not only because his play seems exactly like late game scum who tries to be active and appease everybody, but because I am wary of a repeat of yesterday, when Manga replaced in for Kats, and convinced everyone to switch to Charlie, who was town.

I want to lynch Konowa or Feysal; Trixie is a distant third choice due to her posts and attitude on later days. She doesn't really fit the mold of late game scum for me. The traits I would expect scum to exhibit are next to nonexistent compared to the other two. Speaking solely of today: Feysal's sudden change of activity and attitude since today started are really suspicious to me, and Konowa's lurking (at least until you showed up) is as well. I really,

really

think it's Feysal or Konowa, and more likely Konowa.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I know enough of Feysal's playstyle to know this theorizing doesn't really work; he'd definitely be more motivated to show up as a townie at risk of a mislynch. Trixie's play the last few days seem perfectly consistent with scum too - under the radar, just letting the town mislynch to death. I also don't see how Konowa's lurking is supposed to fit "lategame scum" when he's been one of the two lined up lynches and hasn't really done much to try and change that.

Magna convincing people to switch to Charlie is irrelevant by the bye; Charlie probably would've been mislynched regardless and a single incident doesn't magically make all replacements incapable of catching scum . If that scenario repeated itself, it'd be entirely coincidental.

Why wouldn't you trust me anyway? I've yet to read Feysal incorrectly; I was pushing his lynch in Chrono Trigger over what was much pretty much confirmed scum; and I'm just generally scumhunting pretty accurately this year.

[fatlikepig]

I also don't see how Konowa's lurking is supposed to fit "lategame scum" when he's been one of the two lined up lynches and hasn't really done much to try and change that.

Because lurking is less likely to get you lynched than addressing issues and screwing it up? It's not /necessarily/ scum-motivated, of course, but given that Konowa's been under a lot of pressure today, it's not entirely unlikely that he's just hoping the wagon deflects off of him.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

As I was reading through the game, I didn't see a whole lot of Konowa addressing issues and screwing up though.

[Konowa]

Alright, if I'm taking wagon analysis out of it, Trixie as scum does make sense given D1 play (wagon dynamics being the only real reason I was hesitant to vote (3 scum block voting for that period of time)).

Trixie was a vocal counter to the Arugula wagon attempting to push a counter wagon on an easy player like Sal.
Was the first to outright buy Godot's claim.

It has to be Feysal or Trixie.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm not 100% sure but I think I remember having seen BBmolla reference intentionally playing wagon analysis as scum.

[Konowa]

I'm getting this real uneasy feeling that everyone is waiting on me even though only CES and I have said that they would vote Trixie.

[Konowa]

Meaning, paranoia, I don't understand why DJ hasn't voted despite believing there is only one scum left.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

DJ is currently voting you.