Mini 836: Commie Mafia (Game Over)

[charter]

Mathcam, what do you make of Serial's unvote and sudden 180 on Raskol after he self votes?

[SerialClergyman]

If you have a look at D2, I was prepared to lynch him then too. So possibly I went the double bus/back down.

I decide to bus, I push the case as hard if not harder than anyone, I goad him into posting his own L-1 vote then shit gets too real for me and I unvote my scumbuddy?

That's the working theory?

[Raskol]

I'm at L-1.

If this happens, fine. I had fun for the most part. Anyway, I left behind 10ish pages of good info, so even if I'm not able to prevent the lynch today, I think I'm satisfied. I'll probably make sure I don't replace a player like CoCo ever again, so I even learned a valuable lesson (/end afterschool special).

But yeah---my targets are the same as they were before. Sc, charter, danny. I'm no longer quite as confident that SC and charter are the team, due to their recent interaction, but I would pick my targets out of those three tomorrow. If mathcam and/or hoopla are scum, they probably deserve to win---they've outplayed you all. If they're town, well---shame on them. One interesting point about Cyberbob, though---he's been tunneled on me completely for over two weeks now. Since October 14, he's posted almost nothing that hasn't either been an attempt to refuse some of my points or get me lynched (or otherwise killed *cough*). Don't know if that's a scumtell as it's consistent with his earlier play, but it's something to look at---if you're town, you need to learn to broaden your scope a bit. Vaya/Socrates is a bit of an unknown to me, and I wouldn't lynch him---but if you're willing to lynch me because you don't think Sens' action means anything, then you're probably willing to lynch him too---unless you buy the WIFOM thing from Peabody. I'm not sure what to make of the fictional case he made against me, but his response seems to indicate he was genuinely confused.

[Raskol]

I don't understand why my flipping scum would make SC look scummier, so I would like that explained as well, especially since I don't want my town flip to make him look townier.

[charter]

So invitational 4 is over now, and difference in play is a huge reason I'm leaning towards Serial. Blindingly protown in that game, not very much here.

[Kublai Khan]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 5

charter

- 1 - SerialClergyman - (L-4)

Debonair Danny DiPietro

- 1 - Hoopla - (L-4)

Raskol

- 4 - Cyberbob, charter, Socrates, mathcam - (L-1)

SerialClergyman

- 1 - Debonair Danny DiPietro - (L-4)

Players not voting: Raskol

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

So invitational 4 is over now, and difference in play is a huge reason I'm leaning towards Serial. Blindingly protown in that game, not very much here.

If you're serious about this then you should probably unvote Raskol so he doesn't get lynched while you deliberate.

[charter]

Unvote

I thought I wasn't voting, remembered wrong.

[SerialClergyman]

I thought that might be the case charter, but I wasn't blindingly protown until AFTER cracking the game open.

If you are town - it would be the equivalent of the town all voting for my new theory and cyberbob and hoopla being scum. I look scummy now but after the game people would say obvtown.

Look at D2 and D3 - I was regularly called out as scummy, accused of rolefishing by townie players, lurked, blatantly attacked the softclaiming bunny despite the consesnsus by most players (all except for iam who had role-based info) that he was town. I even had a wagon on me that got to 5 votes. You yourself called me out as probably scum on D3. Imagine if I had been WRONG about rofl or tajo. In fact, if I was wrong about tajo being a hider, I was sure to be lynched at some point during lylo and would have lost us the game.

In that game, I made a risky decision to go with my gut, I convinced people to join me and in hindsight everyone is happy because it was the right call.

In this game, I made a risky decision to go with my gut, and I've failed to convince people to join me.

But saying I'm likely to be scum because of it is just not true, it's actually a total parallel with that game. I still don't know if I'm right this game or not, but i'm prepared to go with it.

And dammit, at least if you lynch raskol over me we can look more closely at my theory tomorrow if he flips town, and you can flat out lynch me if he flips scum and I'm wrong. Lynching me and getting town will give you bugger all to go on other than this theory I have is good-intentioned and now you're in lylo trying to guess who isn't scum.

[Cyberbob]

I would much prefer a Raskol lynch, but SC would be an acceptable alternative given their interactions today.

I've got a bit of time to post, so I will make a stab at proper a proper rebuttal to SC's plan. It won't be hugely verbose, but I will try to cover all of the major points.

I have two major problems with his ideas. The first one is that I really don't like all the assumptions he's made from the outset with regards to certain people's alignments. This has nothing to do with whether or not my feelings lean in the same direction as his, mind: even if I agreed with his reads I would still be disagreeing with the fact that he is taking them and turning them into ironclad predicates. I don't feel like I need to explain why this is a bad idea in a game of mafia.

My second problem is related-ish to the first one. I disagree in the strongest possible terms with his willingness to pronounce "If Player X Flips This Way, The Scumteam is THIS". I'm all for attempts to come up with a

most plausible

list of scum based on a hypothetical flip, but once again SC is turning his subjective reads and stating them as Fact.

I would suspect that at least part of the reason Raskol and DDD haven't spoken out against SC's idea is because any plan that involves declaring them town from the outset is a good one from their perspective regardless of its actual soundness.

(I know DDD is voting SC but he hasn't done very much pushing of the wagon and he hasn't mentioned the whole plan thing at all)

[charter]

And dammit, at least if you lynch raskol over me we can look more closely at my theory tomorrow if he flips town, and you can flat out lynch me if he flips scum and I'm wrong. Lynching me and getting town will give you bugger all to go on other than this theory I have is good-intentioned and now you're in lylo trying to guess who isn't scum.

No. Scummy. This deal you're offering makes me pretty sure that you're scum and Raskol is town. This deal, while looking protown (though isn't at all), falls apart 100% when we lynch Raskol and he flips town. Plus, why on earth would you offer yourself up if Raskol flips scum? This just looks like you're trying to get someone to bite on this deal, which is really antitown if you're town.

I'm going to go back and try and find some concrete contradictions/holes in your plans in the past few pages, pretty sure there are some in there, just got to find them.

[SerialClergyman]

Dammit charter, actually respond to what I'm saying. This is a critical part of the game and if you think the /invitational is a critical reason why you think I'm scum it's a rubbish reason to base it on.

Remember this day 3

Fifthly was probably something like "SC is totally scum", but I must have deleted it because I was repeating myself.

or this:

Fourth, I find SC scummy as well. Sixth, I am pretty damn sure EK is IAUN's buddy with this bizarre way she is going about his claim. Last, I think SC is their buddy too.

It doesn't make me town that you thought I was scummy in that game as well, but if you're trying to say that you had a town read on me all game in /in it's totally incorrect and you shouldn't be basing your opinion on it.

Cyberbob - your attempt to take a proper rebuttal of me culminated in two points -
1) I am making too many assumptions and
2) I am too definite in my statements.

I'd note that neither is actually a hole in my thinking process or the conclusion because of it. For reason 2), I think that's at best a bad attempt at tryign to find a scumtell. We're all big boys and girls, we can all handle the fact that obviously noone knows if I'm correct or not, including me, and when I say that someone is town or is scum I mean that they are likely to be town or scum via this thinking. PLUS there's been an abundance of 'blah is blah' statements from a variety of people and I've never heard you complain aobut it before. I think reason 2) is pure waffle.

Reason 1) has more merit, but I'd disagree. The question 'who is raskol's partner' actually leads me to that conclusion surprisingly easily. It is of course possible that I'm incorrect but it feels more right than any other group of people. I'm not afraid to unvote someone purely based on the people on their lynch, or who is leading the lynch. I'm not afraid to vote someone who hasn't put a foot wrong if their position in the town doesn't seem to make sense (see tajo in the /invitational). And I'm not afraid to unvote someone if them being scum doesn't fit without a partner.

And possibly more important than all of that is that none of this stuff makes me scummy, dammit. Following your reads and being open about them is bloody pro bloody town bloody behaviour. I'm on just about everyone's scumlist apart from perhaps cam and that's precisely because I've stepped out of the box and detailed my theories, despite how many feathers it ruffled. There's a stupid theory around that I'm raskol's scumpartner despite trying to lynch him both in D2 and D4 and it ONLY developed because I bothered to switch to him from le chat and to switch from him when it didn't make sense any more.

I dont' expect to get a lynch of Hoopla or charter or Cyberbob. And at least killing Raskol will allow us to see whether I've totally gotten myself caught up chasing shadows or if I'm onto something. It will also rule out the worrying possibility of there being only 2 scum members and raskol is just alone doing anythign he can to not get lynched, in which case my theory is all shot.

But dammit, lynching people who are honestly and openly pushing their views, no matter how they chance and despite the political pressure they'll face is a dead stupid decision. So I'm not going to vote Raskol, I didn't hammer him when he was L-1, and while I'd love people to put some more effort into thinking though where they think the scumteam is, if it comes down to either of us I damn well hope you guys lynch him over me.

[SerialClergyman]

Preview would have been useful. Sorry for urging you to respond after you'd already responded.

I'm getting too fired up. I'll try and cool it.

charter - you totally just ignored everything I wrote about the meta YOU brought up and said was one of your biggest reasons for thinking I'm scum.

If Raskol is scum, my entire play from my unvote on will obviously look like a last minute attempt at saving him. I understand that people would be aying for blood, and it wouldn't be lylo. I'm just ok with that scenario. I'd prefer to find out that I'm wrong during raskol's lynch than during endgame.

I'm not offering you a trade, I'm not saying that I'd self-hammer or anythign if he was scum, and i'd do my best to re-evaluate and let you know who I thought was scum and everything else, but I'd totally understand that I had to go. What I do NOT understand is why you think I'm so scummy now.

[charter]

Hmmm, that is right, I did suspect you. Happened so long ago, I forgot it. However, I'm still going to go back and look for the holes I am pretty sure are there.

[charter]

If you have a look at D2, I was prepared to lynch him then too. So possibly I went the double bus/back down.

I decide to bus, I push the case as hard if not harder than anyone, I goad him into posting his own L-1 vote then shit gets too real for me and I unvote my scumbuddy?

That's the working theory?

You've never really pushed very hard for him, certainly not day two, not really today either. So yeah, you two being buddies does look likely.

[SerialClergyman]

I had pages and pages of pushing for him today. The only time I stopped is when he looked totally committed to his own lynch, and that's when I started wondering if it was just bad town play as opposed to scummy play. That's what led me to wondering about his partner if it wasn't le chat and voila.

And haven't you dropped your buddies theory to go with me scum him town? Are you jsut automatically disagreeing with me?

[charter]

Well, this is shaping up to be a short read. First post after Raskol puts himself at L-1:

It's both stupid and scummy to self vote

Serial says he isn't positive Raskol is scum, but unvotes even after Raskol commits a scummy act. I suppose you could want more time, but it doesn't look very townie to me.
Then, you come up with your theory in post 1287. This one magically pops up after you unvote Raskol and he selfvotes. This is that charter/Hoopla are scum. It stems entirely from assuming that le Chat and Coco and mathcam are town, when there's really no reason to assume this. You don't elaborate either.

You argue for no lynching some, which is a really awful idea. Then you argue for it some more saying you'd be happy with it if scum kill mathcam. Ok.... Like that's likely if you're both town after you post that.

Then you explain why you rule out Coco/le Chat. Really weak reasoning, you write off distancing as not possible. I don't see why Coco or le Chat can't be scum with someone else, why do they have to be scum together?

You say that Peabody's vote for me doesn't clear me because he wasn't pushing for my lynch. He never pushed for anyone's lynch though. I believe I was at L-2 for a while (didn't actually check, just memory), so if he could be quiet about his vote and score a mislynch, that seems like a rocking plan.

You say that me and Hoopla aren't bringing up good objections to your theories. Here's another one. You assume that mathcam, Vaya, and Cyberbob are all town and you rule them out as possible buddies. However, there's really not much preventing them from being buddies with le Chat or Coco, other than they haven't been playing scummy. Entirely possible they are scum and just playing well, but you've completely written it off. le Chat has practically no connections to anyone, and Coco has so many you could never pick out the fake ones. You're ignoring individual scumminess and only considering pairs of scumminess. A dangerous pitfall if someone playing well is scum, you'll never have a chance to suspect them.

And no, I still think Raskol is scummy as hell, but your unvote and now writing him off completely as town seems a heck of a lot like distancing from a mislynch. I can't just try and lynch Raskol today, and if he flips town go for you tomorrow. Already made a huge mistake similar to that with Cathart. Got to get it right today.

[SerialClergyman]

It's not that distancing isn't possible, it's that there's NO REASON for raskol to try his gambit if they are both scum.

DDD reads dead straight town to me. What can I say? He's shown no deception or self-preservation or anything that makes me think he's scum.

Raskol I could be wrong on, but I jsut get the feeling that it's real. I don't think his self-vote was a gambit. We were so hounding him for so long that self-voting and the martyr stuff was scummy, then he went and did it anyway. Did he expect it was some kind of zany double bluff? To me, that looked like someone prepared to die for his belief. So I unvoted to give myself room, and then started wondering who his partner was. Now I'm here.

Why would I go through this grilling from every man and their dog to try to seperate from a mislynch? I knew I was going to cop some flak, you knew it, it was always going to be MORE DANGEROUS for me to move away from the mislynch than just sit on it.

You say that Peabody's vote for me doesn't clear me because he wasn't pushing for my lynch. He never pushed for anyone's lynch though.

Stuff like this is wheer I start really thinking you're scum. You've tried to get that vote to clear you for days now and every time with terribad reasoning. If he neverp ushed for anyone's lynch, he doesn't clear ANYONE. You're trying to actively say that his pushing of your lynch means you're town, but HE DIDN'T PUSH YOU.

You argument about my reads is meh - my reads are what I have to go on. I'm very confident in Vaya because I don'tb elive Peabody's 'emotional' outburst at all. I'm very confident that if vaya and coco are town, cam is town, and I'm believing raskol's willingness to die for what he believed in, so I believe cam. Cyberbob I could change my mind on, that'sjust in general basedo n how he played with low activity at the start of this day. DDD I've explained as well.

If someone is playing well as scum, that someone is you, cyberbob or hoopla. Most of my theory DEPENDS on the scum playing well. PBPAs help you suspect the person you are doing a PBPA on. Looking at the overall town dynamic and voting patterns is where you get your strongest gut reads.

[Cyberbob]

Cyberbob I could change my mind on, that'sjust in general basedo n how he played with

low activity at the start of this day.

You're joking, right?

[Cyberbob]

DDD reads dead straight town to me. What can I say? He's shown no deception or self-preservation or anything that makes me think he's scum.

Raskol I could be wrong on, but I jsut get the feeling that it's real. I don't think his self-vote was a gambit. We were so hounding him for so long that self-voting and the martyr stuff was scummy, then he went and did it anyway. Did he expect it was some kind of zany double bluff? To me, that looked like someone prepared to die for his belief. So I unvoted to give myself room, and then started wondering who his partner was. Now I'm here.

So basically you're using your gut to work your way through a bunch of WIFOM. That's fine, but at least be honest about the fact that it's all still WIFOM and

please

don't express your gut reads as fact.

Why would I go through this grilling from every man and their dog to try to seperate from a mislynch? I knew I was going to cop some flak, you knew it, it was always going to be MORE DANGEROUS for me to move away from the mislynch than just sit on it.

I've often seen scum try to loudly distance themselves from a lynch they know to be on a townie in order to try and score points with the others if that person ends up being lynched. I have also seen scum do the same thing with a wagon on their buddy to try and swing the momentum onto a townie.

The latter of the two usually works out worse, but if we mislynch today we will in all probability be in LyLo tomorrow so I can see something like it being tried.

[SerialClergyman]

Phrasing issue. I was saying in general there was low activity at the start of the day but you looked quite protown by keeping the discussion going with your activity.

[Cyberbob]

Phrasing issue. I was saying in general there was low activity at the start of the day but you looked quite protown by keeping the discussion going with your activity.

Ah, cool. Sorry about that.

[SerialClergyman]

I will try not to make definitive statements when they are my reads. If you want to police the entire thread for anyone who ever said something like 'you are scum' or 'blah is town' for consistency's sake, you're welcome to, but it's no reason to think I'm scum.

Ugh. If he's a buddy, I pushed and prodded him to l-1 then unvoted to try to save his life?
If he's town, I leave the le chat wagon to vote him then unvote juuuust as he's about to be lynched and you think I expect this to distance me from him?

I'm out for the night I think. I'll try to come at it tomorrow when I'm not as irritable.

Just stop looking at the non standard play and ask what the motivations are, seriously. Did I seriously believe I would be viewed as removed from a town raskol flip by that action? Did I think that i could save my scumbuddy raskol and get the suspicion away from us?

[SerialClergyman]

Phrasing issue. I was saying in general there was low activity at the start of the day but you looked quite protown by keeping the discussion going with your activity.

Ah, cool. Sorry about that.

all good, it was ambiguous.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I would suspect that at least part of the reason Raskol and DDD haven't spoken out against SC's idea is because any plan that involves declaring them town from the outset is a good one from their perspective regardless of its actual soundness.

His plan rests based on assumptions that simply don't hold. While we "know" that Socrates didn't make the kill night 1 I feel it's a mistake to assume proof positive that he's town even with the WIFOM sandwhich given to us by peabody. Furthermore, SC tries to press an assumption of mathcam as town based on a single not that compelling incident, considering mathcam is my second favorite lynching target there's no way I agree with his assumptions and thus his plan falls apart for me.

But since I'd called for him to be dead before any plans he proposed and afterwards as well I thought it was pretty clear I wasn't buying what he was selling regardless of any hypothetical benefit to myself.