Hmm.
I think there were only 3 Mafia to start off the game. I find it highly unlikely that the town was
supposed
to rely on cross-killing just to win. We would have to lynch up to 4 Mafia members, as well as (realistically) anywhere from 1-4 cultists, plus a possible SK, in a game where there was probably only going to be a max of 7-8 days. That does not seem feasible to me.
I have been contemplating as to whether or not it is to the town's advantage to have the Vig/SK come out. I don't think the town has a very good shot at winning unless we force the scum to cross-kill.
What I Think is Left in the Game
1 Mafia
1 Vig/SK
1-2 Cultists
I say we try to lynch Cult today. Notably:
Amb wrote: Unless there is only one cultist left, in which case they arent a concern at all. (
1 single cultist can only tie with town
, and will still lose to scum, in which case they will have to try and out the scum as best they can).
The underlined portion is wrong. Cults win once they control 50% of the town, and I believe that was also how Courk used them.
After we lynch cult today, there will be 5 players left. The Mafia and SK/Vig will kill, bringing the town down to 3 players tomorrow (just enough for a final lynch). Those nightkills will then have a very good chance of hitting Mafia, SK/Vig, or a cultist. I think the town has a fair shake (at the very least) in getting a cross-kill of some sort. Since scum have incentive to kill opposing scum, I think there are strong chances there will be 2 town and 1 scum by D6, which is the best scenario town can hope for at this point, I think.
- Note: "Piling up on the wrong player" seems like an incredibly misleading phrase. The cult can't afford to jump on CES/Mgm if he is not cult, because the SK/Vig and/or Mafia will simply kill those cultists. Same for if there are 2 Mafia (which I doubt anyways). Scum are essentially paralyzed at this point because they have to worry about
other
scum.