Two-Headed Mafia 2 - GAME OVER!

[Courk]

Glork/MoS are lead to the gallows, the whole time arguing amongst themselves.

"We're mafia!" shouts Glork
"No, we want to live! Choose life!" argues MoS.

The executioner can only take so much of it, though, and lynches them in mid-argument.

The townspeople hold their breath to see if they, and Glork, were correct. To their relief it is revealed that Glork/MoS were mafia.

I'm working with a new schedule now, but I think

Thursday, January 18 at 5 pm EST

will be a good time for night to end. Choices are due by then.

[Courk]

Notice: I may not be able to update near the set deadline, so feel free to send choices past the deadline.

Right before I post the day scene, I will check my inbox, process any new choices, and then check again until there are no new messages.

The latest I expect to post morning will be some time Friday afternoon/evening.

[Courk]

Spectrumvoid/klebian lived on the alley that had held the bodies of some dead townmembers. Note the past tense. As day dawned, spectrumvoid/klebian joined the ranks of those who had been found dead in the alley. Well, they sorta joined those ranks. More like their legs had joined those ranks, since their upper body was still in their house.

Their lower body was riddled with bullets, while only a single gunshot wound was present on their upper body.

klebian/spectrumvoid are dead. They were a cult recruiter.

'Tis Day 5! 6 alive, 4 to lynch!

[ambic]

To think I was skeptical about there even being a cult...

[petroleumjelly]

Damnit, the Mafia and SK/Vig both targeted spec/kleb. What rotten luck. But in any case:

*high-fives MBL* We

knew

that gunsmith claim sounded completely wrong. Tch.

Pretty sure one of CES/Mgm, Amb, or Zindaras/Skruffs were culted N1. Deciding what happened last night is almost impossible, although MBL and I were thankfully not recruited. It might be possible that the cult failed to recruit last night as well, by targeting either some sort of scum, or alternatively, a power role (this is applicable if the cult could only recruit townies, as is true in some set-ups).

I am thinking CES/Mgm are the most likely N1 recruit. I won't bother WIFOMing myself into wondering who was culted last night.

Vote: CES/Mgm

.

[ambic]

The recruiter is dead. The cult is going to be how big - One - Two? The mafia will be 2 in size, down from an initial 4*. The cult won't be getting any bigger, especially with 2 killers on the loose.

I keep running through my mind the maths. Are we better to try and lynch mafia. Are we better to try and lynch the vig. Are we better to lynch the cult members. The cult does have a voting block power**, and as long as the vig is alive that can be controlled. And what happens in this situation if we no lynch? It could be down to 4 at dawn if we no lynch and be a mafia win? But equally the mafia could lose a critical member overnight, putting the game back in the balance.

For the moment, my vote will be :

Vote No Lynch

Because a pile up vote on the wrong player could be deadly.

Unless a cult member wants to confess a failed recruit attempt last night?

* Because 3 is too small and unlikely, and 5 would mean 3 alive now and the game is only at day because they have to find the other killer. In which case its going to be a no lynch or a townie lynch anyways.

** Unless there is only one cultist left, in which case they arent a concern at all. (1 single cultist can only tie with town, and will still lose to scum, in which case they will have to try and out the scum as best they can)

[petroleumjelly]

Hmm.

I think there were only 3 Mafia to start off the game. I find it highly unlikely that the town was

supposed

to rely on cross-killing just to win. We would have to lynch up to 4 Mafia members, as well as (realistically) anywhere from 1-4 cultists, plus a possible SK, in a game where there was probably only going to be a max of 7-8 days. That does not seem feasible to me.

I have been contemplating as to whether or not it is to the town's advantage to have the Vig/SK come out. I don't think the town has a very good shot at winning unless we force the scum to cross-kill.

What I Think is Left in the Game

1 Mafia
1 Vig/SK
1-2 Cultists

I say we try to lynch Cult today. Notably:

Unless there is only one cultist left, in which case they arent a concern at all. (

1 single cultist can only tie with town

, and will still lose to scum, in which case they will have to try and out the scum as best they can).

The underlined portion is wrong. Cults win once they control 50% of the town, and I believe that was also how Courk used them.

After we lynch cult today, there will be 5 players left. The Mafia and SK/Vig will kill, bringing the town down to 3 players tomorrow (just enough for a final lynch). Those nightkills will then have a very good chance of hitting Mafia, SK/Vig, or a cultist. I think the town has a fair shake (at the very least) in getting a cross-kill of some sort. Since scum have incentive to kill opposing scum, I think there are strong chances there will be 2 town and 1 scum by D6, which is the best scenario town can hope for at this point, I think.

- Note: "Piling up on the wrong player" seems like an incredibly misleading phrase. The cult can't afford to jump on CES/Mgm if he is not cult, because the SK/Vig and/or Mafia will simply kill those cultists. Same for if there are 2 Mafia (which I doubt anyways). Scum are essentially paralyzed at this point because they have to worry about

other

scum.

[ambic]

In that case, of the living, who is a likely target for Klebian to have gone for? Do cultists usually aim for players that they feel they are likely to get on with, or respect the game of?

[petroleumjelly]

To answer that:

I won't bother WIFOMing myself into wondering who was culted last night.

It is honestly a crapshoot.

1.) Cult could try to recruit experienced players who they think will carry the game for them (i.e. Pooky/Adele + MoS/Glork)
2.) Cult could try to recruit people who are likely to survive long into games (this often includes lurkers, people difficult to lynch, or people who are rarely night-killed)
3.) Cult could try to recruit people they like (people they are likely to get on with, as you say)

And there could be other factors. This is why I hate cults. You cannot use past game-play in order to find

cultists

, since anybody recruited was, at one point, town.

[Nightson]

Good thing PJ/MBL thought about a cult.

I'm fairly certain both CES/mgm and ambic are both scum of some sort. Being that think ambic is mafia and agreeing with PJ's reasoning for going after cult.

vote: CES/Mgm

[petroleumjelly]

As much as I think CES/Mgm are the correct lynch, I will

Unvote: CES/Mgm

for practical reasons. I doubt there would have been any jumping in any case, but better safe than sorry.

[Zindaras]

17 player game. Dead are one Cult Recruiter, two Mafia. We're guaranteed another Mafia.

Personally, I think it's either 1 Mafia, 1 SK, 1-2 Cult left, or 2 Mafia, 1-2 Cult.

Anyway, I think Jellyboy could be scum, Cult even. You're consistently hammering on the fact that you'd sell out your Cult if you were recruited, and I don't like things like that. Skruffs has a nice post upcoming, and I expect goodness from it.

[ambic]

Im going for 2 mafia. And I am thinking maybe we need to lynch one mafia today, so the two killers left after that can take each other out. If there is one mafia, then we eliminate a big threat as a bonus

2 Mafia
1 Other killer
2 Cult
1 Town

If we lynch mafia, we can then concentrate on killing the cult because the mafia will have to get him/herself down to the final 3 to win. In the process he is as likely to kill cult as anything else.

[petroleumjelly]

Oh, don't you dare try it, Zindie. You don't know me well enough, apparently. Try taking a glance at my past games with cults, my reactions afterwards towards cults, and my player statistics page (specifically where I talk about my dislike for cults). This is certainly not the first time I have held this position, and it will not be the last. It is not an indicator of my alignment. For example:

If there is a cult, I will be

extremely

unhappy. I

hate

cults with a passion. I think they ruin mafia games: how do you find cultists except through sheer luck? All efforts made at clearing townspeople are shattered by just the existence of a cult, and people who were once playing for the town win suddenly switch win conditions to destroy the town. And if there's an argument I hate to see, it's "say, I'll recruit you so you'll win with me if you don't lynch me". It disgusts me.



... and although that wasn't completely relevant, I thought I would get it out there. But just to make sure: If I am culted, with an 80% certainty, I will sell out that cult. So don't even think about recruiting me.

You can be suspicious of me for whatever other reasons, fine: but

that

one does not hold.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm town, guys, honest. I feel dumb(I hope PJ's scum, it'll make me feel better about myself.)

Kleb/spec aren't dumb enough to recruit me. I very rarely make it to endgame.

We're probably down to 1 mafia now and if we're not, our Other killer could still save us from that threat, so we should lynch a Cultist. I have no idea who that would be though. Both Skruffs/Zindaras and Lowell/Sprontalic seem to be realistic targets for cult recruitment.

[petroleumjelly]

Kleb/spec aren't dumb enough to recruit me. I very rarely make it to endgame.

Oh? How often do Pooky or Glork/MoS make it to endgames in large games? Bad argument.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

True, but they're pretty awesome to compensate. I don't see why anyone would recruit CES/MGM.

[Zindaras]

Oh, don't you dare try it, Zindie. You don't know me well enough, apparently. Try taking a glance at my past games with cults, my reactions afterwards towards cults, and my player statistics page (specifically where I talk about my dislike for cults). This is certainly not the first time I have held this position, and it will not be the last. It is not an indicator of my alignment. For example:

The difference between this game and others is that, in this game, you're paired with someone else. I'm simply wondering if you would do the same if MBL disagreed.

True, but they're pretty awesome to compensate. I don't see why anyone would recruit CES/MGM.

You're Dutch. Of course you're awesome.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

But kleb/spec doesn't know Dutch people are awesome.

[Lowell]

Odd question, but I've never played with a cult before.

I'd know if I were "converted", right?




Also, I PROMISE PROMISE PROMISE that I'll be more active, finally, in this game. RL got unexpectedly busy (I bought a house) recently. But I'm cool now...

[Lowell]

I ask because I want to know that if I look for behavior changes in players between nights 1 and 2 or 2 and 3, it isn't a waste of my time...

[Zindaras]

Yes, of course they'd know.

[Skruffs]

Hey guys!
Posting in the day is great.
I Was just wondering.. I still have a lot to read but I noticed right off the bat:
"More like their legs had joined those ranks, since their upper body was still in their house.Their lower body was riddled with bullets, while only a single gunshot wound was present on their upper body. "

So they were cut in half, (one kill) and the legs were riddled with bullets (second kill) and the upper torso was shot once (third kill)
What does this mean? I'm guessing riddled means someone was using one type of gun, where as one bullet means that somene else used another type. Plus cut in half.
So I am just asking, were there three hits against them last night or only two?

[Courk]

klebian/spectrumvoid's body was intact, aside from the bullet wounds. They were in their doorway.

[petroleumjelly]

The difference between this game and others is that, in this game, you're paired with someone else. I'm simply wondering if you would do the same if MBL disagreed.

MBL wouldn't have a choice. He knew the risks before he agreed to partner with me.

Let's get people posting. Lots of info out here.