569 Adel's Nightmare -- Game Over!

[shaft.ed]

I've gotten a partial reread of cicero and QF in. Hoping to get a post up tommorow.

[shaft.ed]

PBP of QF:

0. Defends roffman from Porochaz. FoS's Porochaz after he unFos's roffman with the reason roffman is being influenced by scum and not scum himself. A little odd timing.
1. Suggests there may be varying win conditions aside from waking/not waking Adel, this doesn't jive with future role claim. First demonstration of confusion of alignment. Seems to think people died

because

they did or did not prevent someone from waking, not noticing this is an alignment issue. I think I understand the issue. QF thinks the player being dead failed in their task thus if someone did not prevent Adel from waking and they are dead that means their goal was to prevent Adel from waking. Really don't get how this confusion comes about given alignments in the role PM. Not sure if it wouls serve scum to create such confusion as it would assuradely be discovered after a discussion.
2. More of the same confusion.
3. Says her alignment isn't ambiguous even though she is confused. Lays down suspicion of Porochaz as flustered scum claiming information role. Note that tracker/watcher is a lot harder to fake than cop. I don't think this logic makes much sense.
4. Flavor inferences. Suggest Anubis may be ressurector, maybe antitown, maybe a tracker for dead people. Asks for Mod clarification on the alignment issue. FoS's DGB for insistance on Porochaz lynch. Infers from DGB's rolename that she's more likely to be antitown.
5. Replies to Streeflo's point saying that she doesn't see a conversation betweeen Occult and cicero. The conversation was refering to the budding back and forth that lead to cicero claiming. Don't know how that got missed. States she thinks Adel's farily clear answer means that the scum are town and the town are scum. Don't know how she continues to be confused, but also don't see the benefit to scum if it's a ruse.
6. Votes DGB for being DGB. Not familiar with her play, easy thing to do.
7. After being away and garnering suspicion for her confusion asks for reasons people are suspecting her.
8. Again asks why roffman and DGB are voting her. States cicero's point that the only case is that she's confused about role alignment. Points to DGB's play more strongly with a decent case about the quick switch from Porochaz to her.
9. Deflects DGB's inactivity in scum hunting with Pot and Kettle argument, rightfully so. Asks yet again for more clarification. States if she is confused further she will do it in private so as to not draw so much attention. Asks for meta on DGB.
10. Again asks for DGB to provide reasons for her being scum. And asks for reasons for Porochaz suspicions earlier.
11. States she likes mafia more as a series of well-founded arguments. Seems reasonable given the treatment.
12. After missing end of D1 comments that the Streeflo bandwagon was quite fast, no follow up. Says she isn't confused about alignment anymore, but then asks if Streeflo was scum. *headdesk*
13. Posts role PM out of the blue without any pressure or discussion. Coincidence that it happens exactly after the point where she seems to understand the alignments. A bit odd.
14. Says she quoted the role PM to stave of weak arguments against her. Seems that'd be better left for strong arguments. "You wouldn't lose much lynching me" seems like an appeal to emotion. Asks why cicero would support DGB's plan so readily, a good quetsion.
15. About as non-commital as possible in regards to lynching from the revived or the always living.
16. Asks why Guardian is set on her being scum and again asks for a case.
17. Argues her post reading into cicero and DGB's alignments based on rolename were not scummy BS. Says her role is pretty much useless, has nothing to do with the argument from my perspective.
18. Self vote post. Either an appeal to emotion or a townie that wants to allow the town to move past her lynch. I need to reread this section to see how much support there was for her lynch. It seems a bit premature to me as only Guardian had a vote leveled.
19. Promises reread.
20. Points out my and Guardian's arguments against lynching from the revived. Says I'm making a lot of sense. Says she has a power just as valid as Streeflo's so she's not exactly vanilla. Asks roffman to talk to Sparky about his significance. Pretty sure Sparky's already let us know all of that and we can also ask Sparky ourselves in the thread. Points out that roffman's role alignment may be antitown.

Overall I'd say somewhat scummy. The flip away from lynching the revived players is a substantial town tell though. Since QF seems to be the leading candidate for a non-revived lynch it's quite dangerous for her to not support such a play (note that this is invalid if there is another scum currently alive). And with two supporteres she only needs to convince one other player. I don't like the PM quoting and self vote however.

Score 60%

[shaft.ed]

Something I forgot to mention in the above summary was QF's defensiveness. She's always on the defensive asking "make a case against me." Very rarely does she seem to actively scum hunt unless it's a push back.

[QuantumFruit]

What do you mean by "unless it's a push back?"

I think I scumhunt by asking questions, and I haven't really had a chance to in this game because I was confused and not giving it as much attention as I should have in the beginning. I've gotten more into scum hunting lately and once I understand the game a bit better, I imagine I'll be making more substantial contribution. Given this is only my second game and an especially unusual one, I hope you'll understand my confusion. Granted, that might be spun against me as pathos, which is unfortunate. Anyway, I would still like to know why certain players are so sure there's an alignment flip with revivals. There seem to be a multitude of effects that could potential balance the two pro-town resurrection roles - why are cicero and DGB pushing that one specifically?

[roffman]

@QF: you say there are a multitude of effects that would balance it. Could you please give some examples that do not involve a scum reviver who happened to die N0?

[QuantumFruit]

It could be mapped out who could be revived as what and when. Different revival effects each night. (These would make it impossible to outguess the mod.) It could be preplanned for each role what they are revived as. We've already determined the percentage thing is highly unlikely.

I think the scum reviver dying N0 is probably most likely, but those are all possibilities, and I don't see our basis for assuming that roles flip.

Are you familiar with the dead's roles? How much information do you get, exactly?

[roffman]

only what they tell me

[cicero]

Actually, I think that might just be the mechanism in the game. It's pretty straightforward. And The night zero kills just screwed it up. It's very possible one of the dead are the scum reviver. It makes perfect sense.

Consider this scenario:

DGB is the townside ressurector.

There's a dead scum rezzer.

And me! Who is townside but is there to mix things up and make them screwy. Which means that if I target the same person they target, I'll screw their rez. If I target the same person someone tries to kill, I'll keep them alive. It's simple and elegant and fits with the whole eighth day issue.

Too easy.

[Guardian]

Yeah. Which, again, makes me want to lynch shaft.ed or QF.

I'm going to re-read shaft.ed, I know he in general is amazing in blending in as scum; and if there are just 3 scum, there's no one for there to be interactions with him for .

[shaft.ed]

Cicero, if I understand your proposed system, I think it will fail. If the only time you manipulate the reviver or vig/NK'er is when you both target, then that's not going to happen very often. The odds of you and DGB targeting the same player yesterday were 1 in 5, or 1 in 3 if you only consider pro-town. Even lower if you consider that you have the option of killing or reviving.

I'm going to re-read shaft.ed, I know he in general is amazing in blending in as scum; and if there are just 3 scum,

there's no one for there to be interactions with him for

If you've reread my games enough to know this, you should have noticed I gain my town cred by vehement bus'ing. Tough to do that with just N0 to work with.

And I just had to highlight that last part because it hilarious when read it I for.

Trying to make time for a cicero PBP today. Will do roffman at some point as well.

[shaft.ed]

What do you mean by "unless it's a push back?"

I mean you generally only accuse people of scummy behavior when they are attacking you with weak arguments.

[cicero]

Shaft.ed, read my role PM. I would have an effect anytime I targetted someone. Not just the other resurrector(s). I dont see your post as a real counterpoint. Who said it should happen very often anyway? and the odds you quote are completey wrong just from yesterday. The odds of DGB and I targeted the same dead person on day one were fairly likely actually. one in three before correcting for interactions. It didnt happen because it was clear I was choosing between Guardian and Rigel/Sparky. She steered clear and rezzed Streetflo.

[DrippingGoofball]

The odds of DGB and I targeted the same dead person on day one were fairly likely actually. one in three before correcting for interactions. It didnt happen because it was clear I was choosing between Guardian and Rigel/Sparky. She steered clear and rezzed Streetflo.

You read my mind. I was a bit leery of your claim at first, and was re-assured by your role PM. But I still wanted to make sure that you could be tested, that's why I didn't pick Guardian or Sparky. To be honest, my role seemed to be more certain to work than yours, but I didn't want to out myself on Day 1, so I made do with the choice that I had.

Naturally, I had no possible night choice on Night 0.

[shaft.ed]

Cicero, I'm talking about this part.

And me! Who is townside but is there to mix things up and make them screwy. Which means that if I target the same person they target, I'll screw their rez. If I target the same person someone tries to kill, I'll keep them alive. It's simple and elegant and fits with the whole eighth day issue.

Too easy.

I took that as you saying the way to balance out two pro-town revivers was to make one of them a roleblocker if they had a common target. This seems like it would have a pretty narrow effect. And you stating that it was less likely for DGB and you to overlap targets since you could be partially choreographed supports my point further.

And this was also weird, not sure if it was intentional:

The odds of DGB and I targeted the same dead person on day one were fairly likely actually.

one in three

before correcting for interactions.

the odds of you and DGB targeting the same player yesterday were 1 in 5, or

1 in 3 if you only consider pro-town

.

To reiterate I'm disturbed the two revivers are getting a free pass in this game.

I don't think I'll have time to get any PBP's in today. Is the deadline creeping up on us?

[cicero]

Shaft.ed the second part wasnt intentional.

And in your analysis please be careful to separate setup from interactions. We can all claim and sort out the whole setup I suppose. I'm assuming the idea was for the town to find the scum rezzer. Adel couldnt know that I'd claim day one and DGB would claim day two. Without those claims, we couldnt choreograph. So you are mixing your analysis of the game's setup with the analysis of the game.

BTW this recent speculation argues against DGBs original position that we need to re-kill Streetflo. Just so we're clear. We can move back to deciding to kill you or quantumfruit.

I dont need any freepass from town btw. I havent done anything scummy and dont have anything to hide. Town can ask me any questions they want. So can you whenever you get that PbP done. And DGB seems to be honestly thinking out loud about making sure the town doesnt get screwed over by a weird cult-like mechanism.

[shaft.ed]

We can move back to deciding to kill you or quantumfruit.

I dont need any freepass from town btw.

The contradiction is so neatly juxtaposed.

[cicero]

eenie meenie minie moe.

[shaft.ed]

eenie meenie minie moe.

Glad to see you are weighing your options carefully

[Adel]

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[roffman]

what the...?

[shaft.ed]

son of a bitch. I just spent 45 mins doing a roffman PBP that timed out. Not getting that up today.

[shaft.ed]

can we also get a Streeflo prod and a QF prod if she doesn't post today?

[Adel]

Prods sent to QF and streeflo

[Streeflo]

Sorry I can't make it on. I have a video project due on Friday, and not a lot of time to do it.

Will try.

[shaft.ed]

OK time for a redo of the roffman PBP. This may be less involved than the last one as I spent a lot of time analyzing what the dead were saying. I think that misconstrued what roffman was actually contributing so I won't do so much of that this time.

0) passing on message from Guardian
1) States his role allows him to converse with the dead. Also says according to Adel and Aborted Elephant (AE) there could be various factions that may no know their objective or even alignment.
2) Says he's tried sending PM's to the dead but not sure if they're getting through Adel. Also is confused about alignments. States he understands there is a group that wants Adel to wake and one that wants her to sleep and that his role is ambiguous.
3) This is the first post that stuck out to me:

@Streeflo: Aborted Elephant sent me a message speculating on the existence of a

third

scum group.

This could be a major slip-up if roffman is scum. Such a situation would mean there are multiple groups that don't know of one another's existance but all wish to keep Adel asleep. AE would represent one group, Cold Fairy another and roffman would have to be part of the

third

. Cold Fairy's death would then be explained by cross-kill. This could also just be an innocent slip of the tounge or even a slip-up by AE, but it's definitely strange. Also comments on ambiguous alignment saying Adel told him

I lose when "the chance to dream the nightmare is lost", whatever that means.

4) Says he's gotten two messages from Guardian although 3 were sent. Thus Adel must be filtering them. Or conversely roffman is fabricating the Adel filter to keep things out of the Discussion he doesn't like. Says he has no suspicions but DGB is annoying. Advertises for content from dead people.
5) BS message attacking cicero's alignment from AE.
6) Message from Guardian and Rigel. Neither like QF. Importan for later points, Rigel has no idea what his Sparky role does.
7) His PM's to the dead do not get through Adel. Proposes the Switzerland method of being neutral in order to not get killed by town or scum. He will cast his vote in accordance with votes he receives from the dead, but will not cast a L-1 or hammer vote "without good cause."
8) Defends his neutrality, and says he won't disclose the dead's vote unless the request it.
9) More defending against Streeflo's argument that he should behave protown. Further emphasizing the risk of being NK'd with such a town useful role. Relays Guardian message calling for a QF lynch, and casts his vote accordingly.
10) Message from Guardian directed at Porochaz in attempt to validate roffman's messages.
12) States Guardian is the only dead wanting to reveal their vote for QF.
13) Replying to cicero's request of Sparky, roffman says Rigel has sent him his power and he believes its legitimate, but Rigel does not want the claim out in the open. Recommends Rigel for res'ing over Guardian based on role.
16) Two similar messages from Guardian. Again asks for pressuring of QF, and complains that no one is scum hunting (hey pot and the kettle what have you been doing today?). For some reason, Guardians thoughts on why QF is suspicious aren't getting through.

Guardian, did you bring these up after your revival?

18) States Rigel has made it clear he does not want his role revealed as doing so will fundamentally change how night choices work. But says it's a predictable role if you know what it is. This is important as Rigel's role PM has been revealed as anything but predictable.
19) Message from Guardian relaying his suspicions of scum.
20) Coded message for Rigel about Happy Tree Friends Mafia. Later meant to represent the role of psychiatrist.
23) States he's up for a DGB or QF lynch personally, but the dead are still voting QF. Find it a bit odd that he reveals his personal opinion if he's trying to stay neutral.
25) Role PM from Rigel. Important point:

Night move: PM me the name of one player and we will all see what happens!

This is very far from "predictable." I really don't know where roffman got the idea that Rigel is a psychiatrist. Also PM reveals that Rigel targeted roffman N0. Rigel dying brings up possibility of weak Doc before psychiatrist in my mind.
26) roffman's role PM. Weird alignment revealed:

Alignment: You are aligned with those who wish to wake, and those who wish to not wake

which was further clarified as:

You win when one of two diverse groups win. You lose when the chance to dream the nightmare is lost.

supports the survivor claim if authentic. Also reveals he got this PM from Adel after N0 when Rigel targeted him:

You have become illuminated. You are no longer only the mouthpiece of the dead. You can now talk to the dead and the living.

Thinks that this is the result of the Rigel targeting. Thus Rigel activated his power of speaking with the dead. Don't really get this assumption as it seems Guardian, cicero and DGB required no activation for their powers to "work."
27) Answering QF, says he thinks Rigel being amongst the living is crucial to Adel waking up, also speculates he can "cure" people. Gives removing corruption from the bloated autocrat as an example, but this would take his powre away not activate it. Contradiction is weird.
28) Seems to try to be confusing the game with talk about the town might need to do something totally different than lynching scum to wake up Adel. Kind of strange to bring this up at such a time where he's not at all at risk of being lynched. Maybe trying to protect the current likley lynch candidate? Think that was QF.
29) Continues with unbased speculation talking bout dormant SK's and again saying if all mafia get lynched the game still might not be over. I really don't like this speculation.

roffman do you have information on which to base these statements that will not hurt the town if revealed?

30) Again pushing the idea that we should consider "alternate routes of victory" for town scum and third factions. Seems like another weird statement but given his claimed alignment might make more sense from his perspective. Still don't like it much.
29) Asks for speculation from QF about how to balance two pro-town revivers besides a scum reviver that died N0.

Overall not getting a great feeling from roffman. My biggest problems are the weirdness around being so certain about what Rigel's role actually does, and the apparent attempts to add confusion to the game as of late. I'd really like some clarification as to why you suspect there to be all of these "alternate routes of victory" and why you keep stating that "we shouldn't be satisfied with just lynching scum."

Score 65%

Also is there a proper way to deal with survivors? I've never played in a game with such a claim and the only game I've read with a claimed survivor turned up scum. I would point out his win condition looks legitimate. But it is possible Adel gave him the survivor role as a safe claim.

Finally it looks as though the dead aren't casting any votes today. Are you just not going to vote if you get no information from the dead?