Xylthixlm wrote:Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?
Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?
Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?
Here are the relevant factors in the decision, as I see it:
Ratio: A single large scumteam is more dangerous than several small groups because the town:scum ratio is much lower in that case. It is easier for the scum to get the majority they need to win when there is one large scumgroup.
Scumhunting: Finding a single large group I think tends to be easier, as scum in the same group know who each other are (and can make more slips that way by bussing/defending). An SK cannot honestly bus or defend a partnet because the SK does not know anyone else's alignment.
Night kills: Multiple scumgroups mean more nightkills, which is generally more dangerous for the town (however, see crosskills below). With multiple NKs, the game progresses faster, so the town has to be more accurate with their lynches.
Crosskills: A single scumgroup cannot suffer from crosskills, where multiple small groups can. Any crosskills will always help the town.
Protective roles: Doctors and other protective roles are a little more powerful when there is only one NK coming in. If the doctor can find a cop or power role, s/he can extend the game by several days. It's true that with multiple scumgroups doctors are more likely to have a successful protect, with only one scumgroup, each successful protect is like a free day for the town.
Endgame complexity: An SK complicates the endgame a lot more than a single scumgroup. If you only have a single group of mafia to deal with, you don't usually need to worry about the order in which you get them. Lynching the mafia in any order usually wins the game. But with multiple scumgroups, the order can be vital. For example, if the game situation is at 3 town + SK + 2 mafia, the town has to lynch mafia. Lynching the SK, plus the resulting mafia NK would take the game to 2 town + 2 mafia, which is usually a mafia win. needs to lynch both mafia, and then the SK,
in that order
, to win. If you can get rid of the SK before getting to LYLO, the town usually has a guaranteed win situation. Also, with several scumgroups, the endgame can result in a messy prisoner's dilemma, in which the town is powerless.
Strategy and Setup: With a single scumgroup, it's a lot easier to guess at the setup. With multiple scumgroups, the town can stay in the dark a lot longer, and LYLO/endgame can sneak up on you before the proper strategy can be implemented. For example, look at this game. Probably the biggest unknown for the town right now is: Who is our second killer? With that information, I think we'd feel much better about who to lynch today. A 4 town + 1 SK + 2 mafia position is very different from a 5-0-2 situation. In the former case, a mislynch + two NKed townies is game over at 1-1-2. In the latter, the worse case tomorrow morning is a 3-0-2 situation (LYLO, but still winnable).
For question 1, in the context of a Mini Normal, I think a four person scumteam is more dangerous. The Ratio is the biggest issue here I think. No chance of crosskills, and with only one scumgroup, it is easier for the scum to get the majority they need to win (high scum:town ratio). Even with serious town power, the game is tough for the town to win. One mislynch is probably LYLO. Two is probably Game Over. With two scum groups of two, the town is probably still in the game after two mislynches, even with no crosskills, because it is harder for either of the two scumgroups to gain a majority (plus they usually need to wipe out the other group to win).
For question 2, the ratio is less of a problem. Scum:town ratios are not as much as in the first case, so the balance swings away from the large scumteam a bit. There is a tradeoff: 2 NKs can hit the town twice as hard (and makes it more likely that one will evade a protector role), but there is the possibility crosskills can help the town. This case is more of a tossup for me for a general setup. Near LYLO though, I'd probably prefer 3 mafia so it doesn't matter which order I lynch them in.
For question 3, I've never seen a game with 2 SKs. Having 2 SKs kind of sounds like a nightmare really, as once one SK dies, the other players seem to be be very reluctant to suspect a second SK, and that might lead toward incorrect assumptions. I think I'd rather have 2 mafia if I got the choice.
For this specific point in this game, not knowing who the second killer is what concerns me most.
