Team Mafia 2018: Inventions Mafia Day 4

[Srceenplay]

I'd like a nk. Is there any doubt surrounding chessgod?

Maybe later

[Smocaine]

phone 1% don't speedlynch, but maybe you should. I'm vla btw

[Something_Smart]

If you don’t trust them to be town you don’t trust the to shoot scum.

Ah, but why do you think so? Those are two unrelated types of trust, and I'd think that a scummy person has a better shot at finding scum because they can rule themself out.

[Smocaine]

sp seems town

[Smocaine]

why are you arguing this ss?

[Something_Smart]

Because I want to use the public mechanic in the best way possible?

Theory is the one area where I can contribute completely reasoned and logical arguments. I'm not gonna pass up the opportunity to make a contribution

[Something_Smart]

Also, because I don't want scum to get to choose whether we use the vengekill. I want us to be sure we can use it, because there probably is not another killing ability.

[Aneninen]

I've been thinking.

It's

very unlikely

that the scum were bussing on Day1. Regardless of Chesskid's Elli-read (and I still doubt that the program works), it was clear that plenty of players had been scumreading Mastina

and

it was decided that Reckoner would target RadiantCowbells. Which means, the scum team could see it as a strong possibility that only one of them will get past Day2!

So, we should examine the following players: GuiltyLion, Something_Smart, Ghostlin, ErrantParabola, Katyusha.

As for the Mastina-wagon, two players are more likely scum than the others:
– Chesskid/Smokaine. I still can't rule out that the whole Day1 with that Elli-read was planned by the scumteam. It's a highly risky move, but I can imagine such a gameplay for a scumteam which includes Mastina and RadiantCowbells.
– And me. I refused to get a read on RadiantCowbells and developed a scumread on Mastina only at the end of the Day. It sounds just as risky, but yet again, I had at least as risky moves as scum in the past.


RadiantCowbells must be lynched.

If he somehow happen to flip town, there may be some strange mechanics behind. But, we shouldn't speculate about that right now. Also, there's a thin chance that Reckoner changed his mind in the very last moment and picked me, partly because of my 3037. (You may think my idea was terrible, but keep that in mind that I wanted to see some answers for it, which never happened because the Day ended.) That said, if RC flips town, I'm an auto-lynch.

That's the second thing which tells us I should never get to LyLo, so I suppose I'm to get the invention. Assuming we decide it collectively whom I should target, because I s-ck at being a Town-Killing PR.

Elect: Aneninen

I don't insist on it, so if anyone has a better idea for the Invention, fire it away!

[BigYoshiFan]

In bed right now.

I don't see why it isn't likely mastina was bussed, I would argue that it was likely. Mastina clearly had no intent of defending herself and the game just stagnated for a period of time, which suggests to me that even scum were content with the lynch. And if you do think it is unlikely mastina was bussed, why wouldn't you look on her wagon for invention candidates? You're basically saying scum did not vote for mastina, and I believe the people you've listed did not vote for mastina. Anyways, I'm not gonna be coy about this. Give it to someone we townread.

Elect: BigYoshiFan

VOTE: RC

[Aneninen]

I doubt the bus. Mastina was likely going down

and

we agreed that Reckoner would target RadiantCowbells. I don't think it would have paid off for the scum if they had bussed. (The two caveats are explained above.)

As for the Invention. You may be right if it works after a Nightkill too. But as far as I know, "Vengeful" is a Day-PR. (Although that might have changed since I left the forum for a while.) If we give it to a generally townread player, the scum will simply target them at Night. So we should pick someone whom we definitely don't want to see here at LyLo.

(It's not that good either if the Invention works at Night as well. Even if we agree whom the Vengeful should pick in case of getting Nightkilled, the scum can easily turn it into a WIFOM. Eg. we give you the Invention and decide that you target me. Next Day you're still alive. Is it because I'm scum or because the scum thought I could get lynched easily? Plus, without any proof even the towniest-looking player could be scum and get to LyLo by WIFOMizing the game with similar things.)

RadiantCowbells is at L–3. Do not put him at L–1 before the invention has been given away.

Also, I'll express my thoughts about the players listed above. And we need to see the reads of all the other players, too. For someone Today is the last chance for expressing their thoughs.

[GuiltyLion]

You don’t give someone you scum read a free shot.
If you don’t trust them to be town you don’t trust the to shoot scum.

but the only way vengeful is used is if the player gets lynched

who do you advocate we elect for a vengeful kill instead if not a player who's likely to be lynched?

[GuiltyLion]

Anenien - I agree that it's less likely that scum didn't bus early on, but I don't think it was obvious that mastina was getting lynched (or that Reck was targeting RC with the hider) until much later in the day, especially most likely after Chesskid's 1669. So I think anyone who turned on Mastina after that point could be bussing as it's likely it was after that point when scum realized she was a goner and may have tried to salvage towncred from it.

We go from here:

Day 1, VC 14

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

GuiltyLion(4)

- RadiantCowbells, Hinduragi, CheekyTeeky, xRECKONERx

mastina(2)

- chesskid3, Srceenplay

xRECKONERx(1)

- mastina

RadiantCowbells(1)

- singersigner

Katyusha(1)

- Errantparabola

Hinduragi(1)

- BigYoshiFan

Errantparabola(1)

- Katyusha

chesskid3(1)

- GuiltyLion


Not Voting (3): Aneninen, Something_Smart, Creature

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-02-04 21:00:00)

to here:

Day 1, VC 16

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

mastina(8)

-chesskid3, Srceenplay, Creature, BigYoshiFan, singersigner, CheekyTeeky, xRECKONERx, Aneninen

chesskid3(4)

- GuiltyLion, Something_Smart, RadiantCowbells, Ghostlin

Katyusha(1)

- Errantparabola

Errantparabola(1)

- Katyusha

Srceenplay(1)

- mastina

so when looking at any votes that are not on scum!mastina, you have to weigh that vote's utility for scum vs the utility of the towncred that they would have gotten from moving to bus. Also, since you named 5 players, it's trivially true that at least 3 (a majority) of them are town who didn't vote mastina. So "not voting Mastina" cannot be considered scum-indicative in and of itself and I'd like to see a more convincing explanation than just "wasn't on the D1 lynch" for any scumcases on that subset.

Some things to note/discuss between the VCs:
-if scum did bus, I think it's between Creature/BYF/singersigner, they are in the sweet spot of "hop on this wagon as it's inevitably happening at this point anyway and we need to get something out of it"
-GL/EP/Katyusha never moved - I am biased but I don't think this says anything in particular, would have to break down the reads here to see if there was a point where any of us should have voted mastina but didn't
-there was an effort to kickstart a chesskid counterwagon from {S_S, RC, Ghostlin}. RC is confscum obviously, so the important question is:

if S_S or Ghostlin are scum, why did they feel their vote was better placed as a last ditch effort to counterwagon chesskid than an attempt to glean towncred from a scum!mastina flip

? I don't think that a ck lynch was likely at this point and I have to believe that a scum!SS or scum!Ghostlin would be worried about how they would look not being on the wagon and instead being on basically-conftown!ck.

also, do you really think ck could be scum here? Even if he gets all the towncred in the world for pushing that lynch, how does he then explain himself being alive at 3p LYLO?

I'm here as of the D2 flips, but haven't sat down and re-ISO'd or reread:
{Smocaine}
{S_S, Ghostlin, Katyusha, BYF}
{Screenplay, Creature, Anenien}
{EP, singersigner}
{RC}

[Aneninen]

Firstly said, I don't like your post at all.

Anenien - I agree that it's less likely that scum didn't bus early on, but I don't think it was obvious that mastina was getting lynched (or that Reck was targeting RC with the hider) until much later in the day

Regardless of the Elli-tell there were quite a lot of scumreads on Mastina. There were players building up their own case.
Also, as far as I can remember, Reckoner's target was pretty much decided. The only player who had other suggestions were Chesskid (but only in case of Mastina's townflip) and me (including a terrible idea).

So I think anyone who turned on Mastina after that point could be bussing as it's likely it was after that point when scum realized she was a goner and may have tried to salvage towncred from it.

I don't think so.
Scum must have known that after lynching Mastina (which was a real possibility at least) and Reckoner targetting RadiantCowbells (which as almost sure) they would lose

two

team members. I doubt anyone as scum could get enough town-credit to compensate this huge loss. (With the possible exception of Chesskid/Smokaine and me; see my previous post.)

Also, since you named 5 players, it's trivially true that at least 3 (a majority) of them are town who didn't vote mastina. So "not voting Mastina" cannot be considered scum-indicative in and of itself and I'd like to see a more convincing explanation than just "wasn't on the D1 lynch" for any scumcases on that subset.

That 3 is most likely 4.
As I said, we can't rule it out entirely that there was scum on the Mastina-wagon. Especially the later names and/or those who hadn't expressed a scumread on Mastina. But it's more likely that the scum were away from the lynch.
I don't like the fact that this post came from someone who was on Mastina's counter-wagon.

-if scum did bus, I think it's between Creature/BYF/singersigner, they are in the sweet spot of "hop on this wagon as it's inevitably happening at this point anyway and we need to get something out of it"¹
-GL/EP/Katyusha never moved - I am biased but I don't think this says anything in particular, would have to break down the reads here to see if there was a point where any of us should have voted mastina but didn't²
-there was an effort to kickstart a chesskid counterwagon from {S_S, RC, Ghostlin}. RC is confscum obviously, so the important question is: if S_S or Ghostlin are scum, why did they feel their vote was better placed as a last ditch effort to counterwagon chesskid than an attempt to glean towncred from a scum!mastina flip?³ I don't think that a ck lynch was likely at this point and I have to believe that a scum!SS or scum!Ghostlin would be worried about how they would look not being on the wagon and instead being on basically-conftown!ck.⁴

(1) Haven't you said above that it wasn't sure that Mastina would be lynched? Also, though those names are not getting a game-long freepass,

their effecto on the Mastina-wagon gaining momentum was considerable

!
(2) We should examine those players indeed. What do you mean by "they should have voted Mastina but they didn't"?
(3) See above!
(4) Chesskid/Smokaine was (and is)

never

conf-town. And you're talking about the wagon you were on!

also, do you really think ck could be scum here? Even if he gets all the towncred in the world for pushing that lynch, how does he then explain himself being alive at 3p LYLO?

I've never said he's the most possible one (after RC, obviously). I've only said we can't call him obv-town.

Also, if he's town, any scum can build up a great WIFOM out of the fact that he's still alive, because he's the player who could have gained

the most towncredit

after pushing Mastina by that Ellie-tell as scum.

Spoiler:

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=64287
Although in this game my scumplay was far from excellent, I intentionally built up the

worst

possible LyLo for myself. There were obv-town (or conf-town?) Murgatroyd & Miss Elisa and Shos, a really good player, who had been scumreading me all game long. I Nightkilled all my scumreads to get there. In the end we lynched Shos because, I kept shouting, the LyLo had clearly been set up against me.
Since I'm not a genius, I assume anyone can perform the similar WIFOM.

Back to this game: just imagine a LyLo with

both

Smocaine and me alive...

TL;DR
(1) Before we lynch RC, we must elect someone who we don't want to see at LyLo for the PR
(2) All of us must examine everyone who was away from the lynch. (Keeping it in mind that players or the Mastin-wagon are less likely scum, but far from conf-town.)
(3) Unless we can confirm either of us in any way, neither Smocaine nor me should be here at LyLo.

[Creature]

It shouldn't matter who gets the invention as long it isn't RC.

[Creature]

Can we not vote RC so fast? I think we could use this day to estabilish a PoE.

[Creature]

Yey Aneninen is (prob) town

[Creature]

Feeling like GuiltyLion was a town counterwagon to scum!mastina

[Creature]

Like the way the top five posters are gone.

[Creature]

-if scum did bus, I think it's between Creature/BYF/singersigner, they are in the sweet spot of "hop on this wagon as it's inevitably happening at this point anyway and we need to get something out of it"

It's more that Mulch was 100% sure mastina was scum based on the chessbereth mechanism brought up. While Quick had a pretty solid meta read on RC.

[Creature]

The chesskid-RC spam yesterday hurt town hard, though RC was most likely aware of it than chesskid was.

[Creature]

Oh right, I stood away from mastina wagon for a while because I thought she was just late, but whenever she posted I got no town pings I usually get from her.

[Creature]

This was ofc aimed at the scumteam, not you lovely people <3

Oh right. RC basically confed himself after mastina lynch.

[Creature]

Gonna analyse these daystart reactions:

Srceenplay reacted towny.

VOTE: RadiantCowbells

This Day's a no-brainer.

@MOD, Does the Vengeful ability work only at Day phase, or Night too?

Reacted towny too.

[Creature]

Reck, your sacrifice will not be forgotten.
I think vengeful should go to someone who will need to be lynched before LYLO.

Oh right, this can be town for now.

[Creature]

Huh, vengeful seems like a weird invention to have since they're all public. Whoever we vote for we're essentially saying we don't want them to die, since scum likely wouldn't NK someone unless they were pretty sure they'd shoot town.

Unless we were voting weighing in policy and potential scumminess because if we lynch the person elected and we're wrong they have the option of going 1:1...

Let me see:
1. We give it to someone really towny
2. We give it to someone good at scumhunting regardless of our read on them
3. We give it to someone suspicious

With or without leash