Mini 581 - Andy's Death - Over

[goborage]

Which is exactly why I pointed that out.

Keep in mind that you must assume based on the low player count that the FBI Agent essentially gets one chance to find the SK with an investigation - something which should be 1 in 6. With that, there is the chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent anyways - again, 1 in 6. And there's a further chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent's target if they get an innocent - 1 in 6.

I may be overlooking something but wouldn't the numbers be 1 in 7? We have 8 players and the FBI won't investigate himself and the SK won't kill himself so that means 8-1 = 7. I don't see why we should assume that the FBI will only get 1 chance to investigate. Day 2 will have 2 deaths so we'll be down to 6 players. The SK and FBI only have a 1 in 5 chance to get each other.

Now, if we massclaim, we not only find the SK, but we find the scum as well - if the FBI Agent claims truthfully and is not counterclaimed, we then have a 3/7 chance of lynching an anti-town role, and a 1 in 7 chance of getting the SK - this is actually better odds than if we weren't to massclaim, when we would have a 3/8 chance of anti-town and 1/8 chance of SK, not to mention the 1/8 chance of the FBI Agent being lynched.

I definitely need clarification here: If we massclaim how will we find SK? It's still a guessing game as far as I see. It's not as sure a plan as you make it sound. The 1/8 FBI being lynched isn't really an issue either as they would quickly claim.

The conclusion I've drawn from this post is that you're trying to scare the town into killing off its best asset. The FBI will likely make it to Day 3.

[avinashv]

Ythill: I

did

think it through; don't patronize me.

Go back and look at my post one more time. I agreed with him that

the FBI agent has no need to false-claim

. I guess I should have split up his quote into two, as my second sentence was directed at the rest of what he wrote; and yes, I do stand by that in a mass claim situation the reactions would be useful. I never said that I would or wouldn't support a mass claim, though.

[Jenter Brolincani]

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

[Jenter Brolincani]

Oh, and hello everyone!

[Sethaniel]

@Ythill: as far as I can tell, avinas hasn't changed from supporting JDodge. His last post was

And gauging reactions from either the fake-claim or real claim's announcement will provide for some in depth analysis.

@the massclaim debate: I admit I haven't completely thought this out, but my initial impression is -- Every time we "improve the odds" for lynching scum, we also move closer to lynch-or-lose.

unvote

[JDodge]

Which is exactly why I pointed that out.

Keep in mind that you must assume based on the low player count that the FBI Agent essentially gets one chance to find the SK with an investigation - something which should be 1 in 6. With that, there is the chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent anyways - again, 1 in 6. And there's a further chance that the SK will kill the FBI Agent's target if they get an innocent - 1 in 6.

I may be overlooking something but wouldn't the numbers be 1 in 7? We have 8 players and the FBI won't investigate himself and the SK won't kill himself so that means 8-1 = 7. I don't see why we should assume that the FBI will only get 1 chance to investigate. Day 2 will have 2 deaths so we'll be down to 6 players. The SK and FBI only have a 1 in 5 chance to get each other.

Why would we be no-lynching on day 1?

Now, if we massclaim, we not only find the SK, but we find the scum as well - if the FBI Agent claims truthfully and is not counterclaimed, we then have a 3/7 chance of lynching an anti-town role, and a 1 in 7 chance of getting the SK - this is actually better odds than if we weren't to massclaim, when we would have a 3/8 chance of anti-town and 1/8 chance of SK, not to mention the 1/8 chance of the FBI Agent being lynched.

I definitely need clarification here: If we massclaim how will we find SK? It's still a guessing game as far as I see. It's not as sure a plan as you make it sound. The 1/8 FBI being lynched isn't really an issue either as they would quickly claim.

The conclusion I've drawn from this post is that you're trying to scare the town into killing off its best asset. The FBI will likely make it to Day 3.

If we massclaim, we have definitive proof that one person is not scum - not to mention we can stop worrying about "what if ____ is the FBI Agent", which will allow us as a town to work more efficiently. And quite frankly I have no clue how you could possibly come to that conclusion - why would the FBI Agent likely make it to day 3? And don't you realize that if we haven't killed the SK or scum by D3, it's pretty much over for us anyways?

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

And why are

you

using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

[Sethaniel]

Sorry, I am terrible at math.

why are you using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

Could everyone using all these fractions/ratios please explain where their numbers are coming from?

[Andycyca]

Vote Count:

JDodge- 3 (Dave, Ythill, Jenter Brolincani)
avinashv- 2 (camisade, goborage)
Jenter Brolincani- 2 (avinashv, JDodge)

Not voting (1): Sethaniel

5 to lynch.

[Sethaniel]

All right, I guess I should vote. I can either put JDodge at L-1 or make it a tie between JD and avinas. (noting that JD and avinas are the two dissenting votes.) As a town, we seem pretty committed to either JD or avinas as scum, so I think voting for anyone else would pretty well be a waste of time.

I'm going to base my vote on one main thing:

I don't think JDodge is the SK finder.

He's the most vocal proponent of massclaim, repeatedly saying that the SK finder should have no reason not to claim. If he's truly 100% behind that statement, then if he were the SK finder, he should say so.

So, he isn't the SK finder.

So why such a push to identify the finder? It's at least possible it's because he's the SK.

vote: JDodge

[camisade]

And don't you realize that if we haven't killed the SK or scum by D3, it's pretty much over for us anyways?

And isn't that why we should keep the SK Finder around instead of needlessly sacrificing their self to have a slightly better chance of lynching mafia/sk on the first day?

JDodge has seriously misrepresented the stats by not taking into account the night action.

By Jdodge's route, we have 4/7 chance of hitting town today, and the SK has a 7/7 chance tonight. Lynching normally thre's a 5/8 chance today and a 2/7 chance tonight.Do the sums, and that comes to a 16/28 chance of having 2 townies dead with JDodge's plan, and 5/28 lynching normally.

vote JDodge

Why did you post such a bogus math argument?

And why are

you

using such a bogus math argument such as "7/7" (would SK ever kill themselves?) Why are you saying "2/7" when assuming we lynch town it's actually 4/6?

Yeah I agree with you here.. looking at that, it looks like Jenter's math argument is even more bogus than yours. I think he says 7/7 meaning 100% chance that the SK will obviously kill the SK Finder. And the 2/7 thing was definitely wrong too.

All right, I guess I should vote. I can either put JDodge at L-1 or make it a tie between JD and avinas. (noting that JD and avinas are the two dissenting votes.) As a town, we seem pretty committed to either JD or avinas as scum, so I think voting for anyone else would pretty well be a waste of time.

I'm going to base my vote on one main thing:

I don't think JDodge is the SK finder.

He's the most vocal proponent of massclaim, repeatedly saying that the SK finder should have no reason not to claim. If he's truly 100% behind that statement, then if he were the SK finder, he should say so.

So, he isn't the SK finder.

So why such a push to identify the finder? It's at least possible it's because he's the SK.

vote: JDodge

I definitely don't think putting JDodge at L-1 right now is a good idea. His insistence of the mass claim is suspicious, but I don't think its enough to lynch him right away.

[camisade]

Ythill: I

did

think it through; don't patronize me.

Go back and look at my post one more time. I agreed with him that

the FBI agent has no need to false-claim

.

Except that the FBI agent will just be killed N1.. is that not a reason to false-claim?

My vote that was initially random conveniently stays on avina, just for being 2nd most suspicious, and I don't want to vote for JDodge because I don't think what he's done is really lynch-worthy right now, especially when people like Dave have only posted once.

[goborage]

Forgive my newbness, I understand the 1/6 now. I forgot how the lynching process works. After DAY1 a person will die leaving us with 7 people. Then at NIGHT1 the SK and FBI will make their selections. They won't vote for themselves making it 1/6 that they will finger one another. SK will kill someone and on DAY2 we'll have 6 people. We'll lynch someone again leaving us with 5 at NIGHT2. Assuming the SK and FBI are still alive they'll have a 1/4 chance of fingering one another. DAY3 we'll be left with 4 people. 4 - 1 lynch = 3 folks left.

I can see JDodge's logic when he says we'd be screwed DAY3 if we don't get any correct lynches and the SK doesn't do us any favors. However I still don't think the FBI should claim right away. He should stay quiet until night and get a pm off. In the unlikely event that we do start piling votes on the FBI he'll claim out of fear and we can simply lynch the next most suspicious person. An early FBI claim will do no good.

[goborage]

Go back and look at my post one more time. I agreed with him that

the FBI agent has no need to false-claim

. I guess I should have split up his quote into two, as my second sentence was directed at the rest of what he wrote; and yes, I do stand by that in a mass claim situation the reactions would be useful. I never said that I would or wouldn't support a mass claim, though.

Hey if you can explain why the FBI wouldn't claim to be a townie I'll take my vote off.

[avinashv]

Because then we have one confirmed townie. The math is already shown in earlier posts. One confirmed townie means a lynch has a better chance of hitting scum, from a purely statistical standpoint. Factor in human deduction, and you're on better standing. Add to that the FBI might have played a little strangely and could have trigger someone's scumdar.

FoS: camisade

. I'm your second most suspicious, but Jdodge isn't lynch-worthy? Then who's your most susipcious.

[avinashv]

Oh, just realized:

FoS: Senthaniel

for putting Jdodge at L-1 for what is a weak reason.

[camisade]

FoS: camisade

. I'm your second most suspicious, but Jdodge isn't lynch-worthy? Then who's your most susipcious.

I'm saying that I'm not going to vote for Jdodge right now.. because 1 vote will lynch him, and I think it's too premature to lynch someone right now. he is my most suspicious.

[Ythill]

Let me fix that.

unvote

I think it's a little early for L-1. We don't want anything wonky happening while we're still just talking about theory. I do still find JDodge as suspicious as when he first suggested the mass-claim (which, in all honesty, isn't incredibly suspicious) but I'm not ready to hang anyone yet.

Anyway...

@ Avin: Sorry. It was unintentional or at least undeserved patronization. If you follow my error to see how the original question came about, you can see why it was a little more harsh than befits the actual situation. That's what I get for trying to post when I'm exhausted and caring for a toddler. I accept your response as valid.

That's not saying I agree with your point, or JDodge's.

@ JDodge: I never claimed that statistics were not a part of mafia, only that the game isn't purely about statistics and I do not appreciate you trying to reduce it to that. Furthermore, you have overlooked one of my points...

I insist that the implied odds in this situation make discussion of the actual odds moot (or at least diminish their importance severely). My point is that the FBI finding the SK would be a huge payoff and the continued chance of that happening is well worth a slightly harder time determining today's lynch candidate.

[JDodge]

@ JDodge: I never claimed that statistics were not a part of mafia, only that the game isn't purely about statistics and I do not appreciate you trying to reduce it to that. Furthermore, you have overlooked one of my points...

I insist that the implied odds in this situation make discussion of the actual odds moot (or at least diminish their importance severely). My point is that the FBI finding the SK would be a huge payoff and the continued chance of that happening is well worth a slightly harder time determining today's lynch candidate.

The matter of payoffs does not necessarily factor into statistics - the odds of winning a lottery are, say, 1 in 128 million. The payoff is $25,000,000. Does this mean that spending every cent you have on lottery tickets is a good idea?

[goborage]

Because then we have one confirmed townie. The math is already shown in earlier posts. One confirmed townie means a lynch has a better chance of hitting scum, from a purely statistical standpoint. Factor in human deduction, and you're on better standing. Add to that the FBI might have played a little strangely and could have trigger someone's scumdar.

I'm still not convinced that the minor advantage a claim would give the town is worth giving the SK a free town-kill.

The FBI being on someone's scumdar is a non-issue. The FBI will never be lynched day 1 because he'd claim and then we'd be in the situation you are pushing for.

Anywhoo I think we should let JDodge make a post before we lynch.

[Ythill]

The matter of payoffs does not necessarily factor into statistics - the odds of winning a lottery are, say, 1 in 128 million. The payoff is $25,000,000. Does this mean that spending every cent you have on lottery tickets is a good idea?

Congratulations on proving yourself wrong by introducing a numerical payoff into the equation. Of course your example wouldn't be a good bet, not even to buy a single lottery ticket, because the buy-in is greater than 1/128,000,000 of the payoff. Lottery really is taxation for every fool in the nation.

However, consider poker and the strategy of playing pot odds. If you always pay bets of less than 1/3 the pot and never pay bets of greater than 1/3 the pot when holding four to the flush on the flop (which has a slightly better than 1 in 3 chance of beating the lesser hand your opponent is holding) you will always make money in the long run.

Implied odds

are different. Say you are holding four to the flush and an opponent makes a bet that will require you to pay 4/9 of the pot. It's technically a bad call, but if your opponents' stacks are deep enough that you can be sure to make your 2/3 profit on a hit, it is still a safe bet.

Implied odds

include the hypothetical win in the calculations, and are valid mathematically.

Admittedly, there is no clear numerical payoff here, unless we want to start talking about the chances of hitting scum

after

the SK is dead and also factor in the lack of a NK. Personally, I'm not ready to do that much math.

However, I think it's clear that catching the SK N1 and hanging him D2 would give the same advantage as your scenario (because the FBI would need to claim on D2 to give results) plus nearly double the length of time that town gets to try and catch scum while also removing one of those scum. That is a huge advantage and you are suggesting we throw away our 1 in 7 chance of having that advantage (not to mention the better chance of getting it if the FBI survives two nights) to slightly improve the chances of lynching correctly once.

Personally, I hope our FBI is more forward thinking than you.

And you are formally invited to my poker game.

[Ythill]

@ gob: One post before we lynch? Why are you in a hurry? Besides, JDodge is only at L-2.

[goborage]

I was trying to delay a lynch, not make one. I didn't notice your unvote.

[Ythill]

The last line of your #43 could be taken either way, but I'll keep your stated intentions in mind.

[Jenter Brolincani]

Ok, remind me never to do math without sleeping for 72 hours beforehand.

I screwed that up badly... but I still reckon the stats favour not claiming today. I'm working on a proper model atm.

[Dave]

Ok, i have not posted in the last few days becasue i havebeen reading up on what you guys have been syaing.

Anyway, i cant see a advantage to a massclaim at the moment, even if the FBI agent claimed Day 1, we wouldn't lynch him, so yes it would increase our chances of hitting a scum, but for what, he will be killed night 1, with no chance of finding the serial killer, with renders him useless. Which makes me think JDodge is either the Sk or is mafia. Consequently, my vote stays.

Fos avinashv

because he was agreeing with Jdodge. Which makes him look "scummy" because i believe Jdodge to be anti town, they could possibly be "scum buddys".