Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Jitsu]

Odd question. The front post tells us all about the mafia invading the town, the mafia killing the dashing vollkan, and leaving their sig on his forehead. We're then told to look for the identities of those responsible [for vollkans death]. We're not told to look for anything else. As I said, I suppose it's possible the mod is deliberately misleading us, but that kind of opening surely implies we're just dealing with a mafia. In my experience anyway. The last mini normal I played in (Tapioca Mafia) was similar in that regard. You don't read it that way? As for pickem's death, that could have been caused by mafia, SK or vig couldn't it?

I know I'm not as experienced as you, but I don't like to speculate setups based on the flavor text, with the possible exception of kill method, which is sometimes helpful. It's a closed setup -- if Vollkan did throw in an SK, he wouldn't tell us, given that it's a closed setup. I wouldn't see that as a deliberate attempt to mislead.

I have another reason. Did you read the flavor text really closely? Notice that the calling card carved into our late beloved Mayor Vollkan's forehead said "Mafia has arrived" (that is: Mafia, singular),

not

"[The] Mafia have arrived," (that is: Mafia, plural) which would be the more grammatically correct and natural way of saying things, according to your interpretation. I could interpret "Mafia has arrived" as meaning "the game of Mafia has arrived in Vollville," meaning the town is threatened by scum and we need to eliminate the scum to win the game and restore peace. It kind of breaks the fourth wall a bit, but I think it's plausible. IMO, the wording

could

be intentionally ambiguous.

The flavor text may or may not be indicative of the townie win condition -- I choose not to base my view of the game on it. Given that most mods of closed setups try to avoid giving anything away in flavor text, I have to doubt that Vollkan is intentionally giving away information here. I think it's unwise for you to be assuming that he is (even though it's quite possible you are right).

Sure, there are several explanations for Pickem's death, and I thought I was very careful to comment about that. While I said I think some are more likely than others, I have not ruled any of them out.

I agree that the mafia probably have some power, maybe a GF and/or roleblocker. The existance of a dead "mafia goon" already implies it (a mafia without abilities usually just has it's members listed as "mafia". I don't think GF is unlikely -- I could easily see there being an unightkillable GF.

True, I just checked on the Wiki and it does say that a GF is sometimes UnNKable. (I didn't realize this because every GF I've read about is of the investigation-immune variety. In my experience, the investigation immune GF is much more likely than the NK immune one, but again, we already know this setup is atypical.)

Others should weigh in on the idea of a massclaim, but I'm starting to think it's a good idea.

As I said before, I have nothing to hide. As I said, there is some risk to any townie power roles left remaining, but the information we get could be very beneficial. I expect Oman and Xyl to lie, but what the remaining players say should be enlightening. I don't want to explain why, as the scum could benefit from that.

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Page 54 Votecount

Xylthixlm - 2 (Matt_S, Patrick)

Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Matt_S- 1 (Oman)

Not voting - 3 (Erg0, Xylthixlm, Jitsu)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline for D3: Tuesday April 22, 11:11AM GMT+10
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[Oman]

I'm starting to think that the way he plays townie would not be the way I or MS.net plays townie.

Matt_S' buddy. He and Erg0 looked bad yesterday.

Matt_S just makes scummy votes, scummy words. Looks scummy.

In order to believe this, you would also have to believe that both Erg0 and Matt_S decided to bus their own scum buddy (ChaosOmega-scum) during Day 1 at the exact same time. Do you find this to be likely?

Well, it depends. I don't have time to check now, but I could see Matt_S following erg0, but if erg0 was on second I'd say it is much less likely.

[Jitsu]

I agree with Patrick about the opening flavor suggesting only a Mafia versus Town kind of set-up.

Read my previous post and tell me what you think.

I disagree with the idea of having a complete mass claim. I think only if we have a one-shot vig, he should claim. It's possible that we have some sort of protective role on the side of the town that could have been responsible for preventing a death last night. Or we could have a regular vig who targeted an unnightkillable Godfather last night or who was blocked by a Mafia-aligned roleblocker. I don't think possibly outing that protective role or that vig by way of a mass claim is the way to go especially since I feel pretty good about my suspicions.

Something just occurred to me when I reread your post. If I'm right, then well done.

There are several ways to explain the lack of a second kill last night, but we

do

have a second killer. So you think it is a Vig or a Quack, then?

[Matt_S]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Oman: My vote was after Erg0's

[Xylthixlm]

I support a mass claim.

Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?

[Jitsu]

I'm starting to think that the way he plays townie would not be the way I or MS.net plays townie.

Matt_S' buddy. He and Erg0 looked bad yesterday.

Matt_S just makes scummy votes, scummy words. Looks scummy.

In order to believe this, you would also have to believe that both Erg0 and Matt_S decided to bus their own scum buddy (ChaosOmega-scum) during Day 1 at the exact same time. Do you find this to be likely?

Well, it depends. I don't have time to check now, but I could see Matt_S following erg0, but if erg0 was on second I'd say it is much less likely.

You don't have time to check??? The voting history is there in the first page. It clearly shows that Erg0's vote on ChaosOmega was first. It shouldn't take more than 60 seconds to see that from the vote counts.

[Matt_S]

I support a mass claim.

Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?

You kind of reversed your position on a claim. And your questions sound like they are designed contrary to your position yesterday.

[Jitsu]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Would you prefer instead that I explained why so that the scum can potentially alter their mass claim strategy and mislead us?

[Oman]

I'm starting to think that the way he plays townie would not be the way I or MS.net plays townie.

Matt_S' buddy. He and Erg0 looked bad yesterday.

Matt_S just makes scummy votes, scummy words. Looks scummy.

In order to believe this, you would also have to believe that both Erg0 and Matt_S decided to bus their own scum buddy (ChaosOmega-scum) during Day 1 at the exact same time. Do you find this to be likely?

Well, it depends. I don't have time to check now, but I could see Matt_S following erg0, but if erg0 was on second I'd say it is much less likely.

You don't have time to check??? The voting history is there in the first page. It clearly shows that Erg0's vote on ChaosOmega was first. It shouldn't take more than 60 seconds to see that from the vote counts.

Hmm didn't know it was on the first page, thats a cool addition. I thought I was going to have to wade.

The answer then, is yes, I do believe it!

[Matt_S]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Would you prefer instead that I explained why so that the scum can potentially alter their mass claim strategy and mislead us?

Surely you can understand why I'm a little skeptical though.

[Jitsu]

I support a mass claim.

Jitsu: Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two scumteams of two people each, or a single scumteam of four?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: a scumteam of two plus a SK, or a single scumteam of three?

Which do you think is more dangerous to the town: two SKs, or a single scumteam of two?

These are kind of odd questions. Are you asking specifically about this game or in general terms?

[Patrick]

I have another reason. Did you read the flavor text really closely? Notice that the calling card carved into our late beloved Mayor Vollkan's forehead said "Mafia has arrived" (that is: Mafia, singular), not "[The] Mafia have arrived," (that is: Mafia, plural) which would be the more grammatically correct and natural way of saying things, according to your interpretation.

I'm thinking vollkan's forehead wasn't big enough for the extra word But seriously, I would consider it somewhat misleading from the mod if there does turn out to be an SK in the game. I think it's likely we'll have to just agree to disagree on this point, I can respect the point of view of not wanting to read anything into opening text, but I can't help but let it affect my judgement a bit here.

[Jitsu]

I don't want to explain why

Why does this remind me of Day 1?

Would you prefer instead that I explained why so that the scum can potentially alter their mass claim strategy and mislead us?

Surely you can understand why I'm a little skeptical though.

Of course, but in this case, a little opaqueness is necessary, I'm afraid. A mass claim could be ruined if the scum were tipped off about what information the town was looking for.

[Jitsu]

I'm thinking vollkan's forehead wasn't big enough for the extra word But seriously, I would consider it somewhat misleading from the mod if there does turn out to be an SK in the game. I think it's likely we'll have to just agree to disagree on this point, I can respect the point of view of not wanting to read anything into opening text, but I can't help but let it affect my judgement a bit here.

I actually hope you are right. If you are, that would be great, as it means we are in a better position than I have feared. I tend to plan for the worst case and hope for the best, though. That's how I'm approaching this.

[Incognito]

I agree with Patrick about the opening flavor suggesting only a Mafia versus Town kind of set-up.

Read my previous post and tell me what you think.

Your previous post makes sense; the flavor text could be intentionally ambiguous. The problem though is vollkan mentions something about a "powerful crime organisation" that has been going about pillaging other villages and has finally reached the town of Vollville. I, too, don't know how often the flavor matches the actual game set-up since I don't have much experience with this site either but I've had Patrick review a game set-up for me for my future mini normal and according to him, the flavor should be written carefully to not deceive the players in the game.

Something just occurred to me when I reread your post. If I'm right, then well done.

There are several ways to explain the lack of a second kill last night, but we

do

have a second killer. So you think it is a Vig or a Quack, then?

I think if we have a vig or a quack, then we don't have an SK. If we have an SK, then I think we have a protective role. If the flavor text is indicative of anything, then I think the pro-town power roles are more likely than the third-party killing role.

[Incognito]

Hmm didn't know it was on the first page, thats a cool addition. I thought I was going to have to wade.

The answer then, is yes, I do believe it!

Btw, Oman, whether or not it is on the first page shouldn't make that much of a difference. If you would recall, Erg0's and Matt_S's votes were actually a hot topic at one point that you and maybe one or two others actually discussed in some detail as possibly being scum tells. Erg0 voted for ChaosOmega, Matt_S seemed to cross-post with Erg0, and then he said something like "Lol. Hello there. Didn't see ya" while quoting Erg0's vote. I can understand things being able to slip from someone's mind but not something like that which you yourself used as pretty substantial evidence at one point to implicate the possibility of a Matt_S/Erg0 scum pairing.

[Xylthixlm]

These are kind of odd questions. Are you asking specifically about this game or in general terms?

Whichever you want to answer.

[Patrick]

Xylthixlm, you've been defending Oman most of the game, and even kind of defended him today. What has suddenly made you think he's scum? Also, do you plan on trying to convince anyone that either Incognito or Patrick is scum too?

[Incognito]

You know what? I've thought of another possibility that I think is even more likely than any other possibility mentioned yet.

If we take the flavor text into account, then I think right now our status might be 5-0-2. We've talked about the possibility of an SK, a vig, a quack... we're either thinking that the role is either a town-aligned killing role or a third-party killing role. But what if it's neither? What if instead we have a mafia-aligned vig/assassin role that has some sort of kill restriction (able to kill once every other night or something)? I think that actually makes more sense than anything else mentioned. It would fit in with the flavor text, it would explain the second death on D1, and it would explain why no second death happened on D2. I don't know if this role is typical here on mafiascum but in my previous site, we used to have an Assassin role that had this kill restriction that I've mentioned.

Another thing that's struck me as interesting is all of our choices for who we think is mafia.

Patrick thinks Oman/Xylthixlm.
Erg0 thinks Oman/Xylthixlm.
Matt_S thinks Oman/Xylthixlm.
Jitsu thinks Oman/Xylthixlm.
I think Oman/Xythixlm.
Xylthixlm thinks Oman/Patrick or Incognito.
Oman thinks Erg0/Matt_S.

All of us who think each other are town all have narrowed down our suspicions to the same two people and the people we think are scum think completely differently. Xylthixlm breaks the pattern though; if he's scum with Oman, then he's attempting to bus his buddy at this point. Could this be indicative that maybe Oman is just a Goon while Xylthixlm might be the Assassin that I mentioned above?

Any thoughts about anything I mentioned would be appreciated. =)

[Xylthixlm]

Extra mafia kills are pretty rare. They have been done before, though. IIRC the last invitational had a mafia that had 2 kills the first night plus the ability to choose the flavor of their kills.

Incognito is now striking me as town. Something about Jitsu's play is nagging me, so I'm waiting for his answer to my questions.

I need to do a reread on Erg0 and Matt_S in my copious free time.

[Patrick]

Extra mafia kills are indeed rare. I can only think of one game off the top of my head where I've seen it, so I wouldn't get too carried away with the idea. I could imagine a situation where mafia kill flavour varies depending on which member is sent out to perform the kill (and we know scum must be sending out a specific member to kill each night because of our dead watcher and tracker roles).

[Xylthixlm]

To throw a bit more fuel on the kill flavor speculation, the death in the opening post is by strangulation.

[Incognito]

I realize that they're rare but it seems like everyone's completely clueless about who the other killer is and why a second body didn't go down last night. I would think that if a member of the town had this information (especially if that member of the town was a one-shot vig) he would come forward with this information to help shed some light on the situation. Since nobody has come forward though, it leads me to believe that the mafia have this information and that an extra mafia kill may have been performed on Night 1. Perhaps it's even the reason why we had both a tracker and a watcher in our set-up. I would think that games would normally have only one investigative role instead of a pair.

[Matt_S]

So if the mafia have a second kill tonight, and there's two of them, we're at lynch or lose. I can't see that happening after only one mislynch.

[Patrick]

I realize that they're rare but it seems like everyone's completely clueless about who the other killer is and why a second body didn't go down last night. I would think that if a member of the town had this information (especially if that member of the town was a one-shot vig) he would come forward with this information to help shed some light on the situation. Since nobody has come forward though, it leads me to believe that the mafia have this information and that an extra mafia kill may have been performed on Night 1. Perhaps it's even the reason why we had both a tracker and a watcher in our set-up. I would think that games would normally have only one investigative role instead of a pair.

I think this is misguided. I think it's fair to assume that regardless of their alignment, our second killer has been trying to stay hidden. An SK's job is to stay hidden, a vig wouldn't want to be outed easily because they'd be nightkilled. Now we've been discussing the possibility of a massclaim, it's possible that if we have a vig they'll be claiming. I don't think that the lack of anyone having come forward yet points to the mafia having that information. I think the rarity of mafia having extra kills, particular in a normal setup, is more significant.

I'm starting to think a compromise to massclaiming might be to ask the second killing role to come forward. That would at least avoid the issues of outing any protective roles.