Patrick wrote:Does anyone other than Xylthixlm have an opinion on Xyl's logic today regarding why he defended Guardian? It seems to me that it makes no sense at all, but most people seem to be just glossing over it so maybe I'm hallucinating. If I'm missing something that actually means what he's said makes sense, someone please tell me what it is.
I will go back and reread, but on my initial read, I wasn't really buying Xyl's logic. I don't really believe Xyl or Oman at this point.
Patrick wrote:Oman's play continues to be scummy in the same vein today as it always has been; wishy washy attack on two players, stereotypical scum on scum assessment of Xylthixlm, and no real attempts to convince anyone that his cases are correct.
Wishy washy? I think that would be a compliment. Perhaps if he worked on it a bit, he could upgrade it to wishy washy. I agree he's done nothing to convince anyone of his cases. It sounds to me like a scum who hasn't put a lot of effort in the game.
Patrick wrote:I still love a Xylthixlm/Oman mafia, but will be reading soon to check out what other scumgroups look plausible. I still think there's no Oman/Jitsu because of Oman's tone towards Jitsu early day 1. Whilst an SK is still possible, I get turned off the idea whenever I look at the opening post flavour, even though I suppose mods do occasionally deliberately mislead. My money would still be on no SK though.
Patrick, what exactly about the opening post flavor suggests to you there is no SK? How do you account for the Pickem kill if there is no SK?
Be I still see an SK as likely. We have a watcher and a tracker dead -- two roles that are designed to look for (scum) night choices. Now, if there is no SK, then the mafia would seem to have some power on their side, since one would presume there is not a tracker and watcher for no reason. A roleblocker is quite likely I think, as Xylthixlm said earlier (one statement of his I actually agree with). There's probably no godfather, since it is unlikely we have a cop. What kind of other roles are there where Mafia target people? Plus, we have that second killer running around. If it's a town role, then the watcher and tracker are just as likely (if not more so) to screw over the town, because that would be at least three pro-town roles that can target others, that could easily be mistaken for scum by the watcher/tracker. I am guessing because of that, that there are few or no town power roles remaining, and that theory tends to fit with the second killer not being a pro-town killing role here. It's also bugging me why there was no second kill last night. If the town has a doctor, even a Quack, that's another possible chance for a watcher/tracker to mistarget suspicion. A Mafia Roleblocker blocking an SK might be a better fit, but I don't want to zero in on that too much since Vollkan has already signaled that we are not dealing with a typical setup here.
A second mafia group could be possible, but something about that doesn't seem to fit. Guardian's play yesterday really seemed to be about drawing out the SK so that s/he could be lynched (or failing that, NKed). Xylthixlm was talking quite a bit about an SK also, and seemed to think it was Adel. And Adel ended up getting NKed. I don't like to draw a lot of conclusions from NK choices, but maybe the shoe does fit here. I would think that if we had two scum groups that we would have been more likely to seen a crosskill, or that the mafia would have guessed at the possibility of a second group given that we would be dealing with two groups of two. I would have expected for the mafia to encourage the town to nail the other mafia instead of fakeclaiming SK. A two person scum group sacrificing one of their number to try to out an SK? I'm not really buying that. I don't know what the scum's motives were, but it really seemed like the scum were looking for an SK yesterday, and the scum probably have a good guess at the setup, what with the watcher and tracker revealed, knowing their own roles, and having more information to figure out who Pickem's mystery killer might be. If there are two scum groups, we probably want to try to nail Guardian's partner.
A one-shot vig does seem possible. A town + watcher + tracker + one-shot vig I think would be reasonably balanced with a 2 mafia goon + 1 roleblocker setup (possibly slightly town-favored in that case). Also, a 1-shot vig is less likely to be fingered by the watcher/tracker.
Also, there's Xylthixlm's post where he flat out stated that we should not be going after a possible SK and should be lynching mafia instead. Again, maybe it's more WIFOM, but leaving an SK alive would seem to be a bad play for the mafia also, because they would seem to be just as likely to get sucked into a Prisoner's Dilemma endgame as the town is. That's one reason why I still think there is a small chance that Xylthixlm could be an SK. I think Oman is probably not an SK. Massive lurking with bad votes and little in the way of scumhunting is not a good recipe to survive, and SKs need to survive to win (this is the same reason I was having trust issues with Guardian on Day 2, since ChaosOmega was not really trying hard to survive either).
Incognito wrote:We only had one kill last night while on night 1 we had two kills. We've contemplated the possibility of there being an SK, a vig, a one-shot vig, and I think Adel even suggested a Quack Doctor. If one of the kills during Night 1 was performed by a one-shot vig, does anyone think that the one-shot vig should role claim now? My reasoning is the one-shot vig would essentially be a vanilla townie now since he's used up his one shot and it might help us to figure out the set-up and our current situation further if he claimed.
Yes, I think a one-shot vig should claim. Honestly, I was even pondering the idea of a mass claim, but I think it's still a bit too early. The information we could learn about the setup could be extremely valuable -- being able to deduce who killed Pickem and why there was no second kill last night could win the game since it seems that we've already fingered two scum in Xyl and Oman. The big disadvantage I see is if there is a Mafia Roleblocker, a mass claim would neuter any town power roles left remaining.
But, for a one-shot vig, there's not much of an issue.
