Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Matt_S]

So why aren't you voting Oman?

Because for my theory Omanscum follows from Xylthixlmscum, not the other way.

Matt_S, could you explain this? Why does Omanscum only follow Xylthixlmscum?

Well, if Xylthixlm's scum, then that means he's trying to defend Oman. Originally I saw this as trying to defend a scum buddy, but he could also be trying to look protown by defending the person who's about to be lynched. So Omanscum doesn't necessarily follow from Xylthixlmscum like I thought around midnight last night. And last night I was thinking that Omanscum doesn't lead to Xylthixlm scum because defending scum doesn't make you scum for sure. However, I can't see Xylthixlm being town after that WIFOM defense of Oman. A Xylthixlm lynch still gives more info I think.

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Page 52 Votecount

Oman - 1 (Incognito)

Xylthixlm - 1 (Matt_S)

Not voting - 5 (Oman, Erg0, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu)

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.
Deadline for D3: Tuesday April 22, 11:11AM GMT+10
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[Jitsu]

I admit that I'm at a bit of a loss right now. I guessed wrong on Adel for sure, but knowing her alignment does help me.

A one-shot Vig is possible, and an SK still makes sense if a kill were blocked. Given the knife flavor, I'm tempted to lean a little bit toward an SK scenario than the Vig, but I won't rule anything out.

I still find Patrick, Incognito, and Erg0 town, so by process of elimination, for me, that leaves Oman, Xylthixlm, and Matt_S as the possible scum.

With Adel out of the picture, I tend to agree that Oman and Xylthixlm are the Mafia. I've liked Patrick's and Erg0's recent posts. I'm still more comfortable with Omanscum than Xylthixlmscum (that's a bit of a mouthful).

If there is an SK then, I would conclude that it is Matt_S. I could see that.

The lack of a second kill last night is huge. If we do have a vig, we could actually be at 5-0-2 right now. The worst case is probably 4-1-2, which is still winnable.

We are actually in much the same situation as yesterday. If we want to stay in control of our destiny, we need to lynch the SK (presuming there is one).

I want to reread with the knowledge that Adel is town before I decide who I think the play is.

[Xylthixlm]

Also, why did you ignore the possibility that Guardian was mafia trying to draw out the real killer (even after people brought it up)?

I thought I had said something about that, but I looked through my posts for a quote and apparently I didn't. Odd.

A vig claiming the pickem kill would have meant Guardian2 was screwed, since the mafia kill would then be unaccounted for, and logically it would be the Guardian1 kill - which would mean Guardian2 was claiming the mafia kill, which would get him lynched just as surely as him claiming the vig kill would. I'm really not sure why you're not getting this logic.

[Xylthixlm]

We are actually in much the same situation as yesterday. If we want to stay in control of our destiny, we need to lynch the SK (presuming there is one).

This reasoning is as bad today as it was yesterday. We need to lynch mafia, whether or not there is a SK.

[Xylthixlm]

However, I can't see Xylthixlm being town after that WIFOM defense of Oman.

Like I said earlier:

When you make judgements about how someone else would play as scum, that's scumhunting. When you make judgements about how

you yourself

would play as scum, that's WIFOM.

[Xylthixlm]

So apparently when I try to use logic and actually analyze the game, everyone's confirmation bias kicks in. I might as well just be oracular.

Oman is scum. I'm dithering between Incognito or Patrick for the other.

That is all.

[Patrick]

I thought I had said something about that, but I looked through my posts for a quote and apparently I didn't. Odd.

Yeah. Very odd.

A vig claiming the pickem kill would have meant Guardian2 was screwed, since the mafia kill would then be unaccounted for, and logically it would be the Guardian1 kill - which would mean Guardian2 was claiming the mafia kill, which would get him lynched just as surely as him claiming the vig kill would. I'm really not sure why you're not getting this logic.

This still wouldn't screw him in this situation. The mafia kill could easily have failed somehow. He would still claim that he killed Guardian1 as an SK, and that the mafia kill was blocked or bounced (maybe on ChaosOmega for example, since he did claim unightkillable).

So apparently when I try to use logic and actually analyze the game, everyone's confirmation bias kicks in. I might as well just be oracular.

For the record, if you're legit, you've played a poor game so far.

Oman is scum. I'm dithering between Incognito or Patrick for the other.

You forgot to provide your reasoning.

[Erg0]

I'm here, haven't had time to catch up yet. Thinking Oman is a good bet for today, but some reading is required pre-vote.

[Matt_S]

However, I can't see Xylthixlm being town after that WIFOM defense of Oman.

Like I said earlier:

When you make judgements about how someone else would play as scum, that's scumhunting. When you make judgements about how

you yourself

would play as scum, that's WIFOM.

I'm pretty sure I could use some witty saying to make my point, but I'm in a hurry. You say that Omanscum would have to be stupid to kill Adel. Just because you don't call it WIFOM doesn't mean that it is any different.

[Xylthixlm]

This still wouldn't screw him in this situation. The mafia kill could easily have failed somehow. He would still claim that he killed Guardian1 as an SK, and that the mafia kill was blocked or bounced (maybe on ChaosOmega for example, since he did claim unightkillable).

Pretty much the same excuses would apply if someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, although you're right about the kill immunity part. (I was discounting it as WIFOM, so it didn't occur to me that it could be used to explain a missing kill.)

For the record, if you're legit, you've played a poor game so far.

Graduating college and getting a real job, plus 2 hours of commuting every day, has cut down on the attention I can pay to mafiascum.

You forgot to provide your reasoning.

Gut. That's why it's being oracular.

[Patrick]

Pretty much the same excuses would apply if someone else claimed the Guardian1 kill, although you're right about the kill immunity part. (I was discounting it as WIFOM, so it didn't occur to me that it could be used to explain a missing kill.)

If someone had claimed the Guardian1 kill, that would have shown Guardian2 was lying about killing him. The nightscenes are fairly detailed, I'd expect it to show up if someone had been killed multiple times.

Graduating college and getting a real job, plus 2 hours of commuting every day, has cut down on the attention I can pay to mafiascum.

Sorry about that.

Gut. That's why it's being oracular.

I was parodying what you said to ChaosOmega on day 1, neverthless I can't at all see where these would come from, except the Oman one, but I've been getting the impression you haven't been finding him that scummy.

I need to reread parts of the game. I'm sure I have other stuff to say here.

[Erg0]

Oman is looking pretty much the way he always did. Xyl seems to have gone into misdirection overdrive today: all this kill claiming stuff is irrelevant at this point and doesn't really inform us of anything. The other thing that I really didn't like about his opening post was this:

I'll do a targeted reread on Guardian to see if there's anything interesting about his play...

Translation: "hey everybody, go check out that awesome misdirection that Guardian was pulling yesterday!"

Nothing Guardian^2 said is useful, because I can guarantee you that he was fully expecting to be lynched yesterday and played accordingly. He said himself that he replaced in expecting to do some distancing and then take the lynch, and I think that demonstrates his frame of mind from that point forward. As such, I'll accept no arguments that are based on anything that he did after that point.

[Patrick]

Previously I thought Oman was scummier than Xylthixlm, but recent stuff has been making me reconsider it and think maybe Xylthixlm should be deadified.

Xyl seems to have gone into misdirection overdrive today: all this kill claiming stuff is irrelevant at this point and doesn't really inform us of anything.

The debate between me and Xyl on this subject today probably doesn't seem that interesting to outsiders, but the reason I've been pushing it is I really feel like he used craplogic to defend Guardian yesterday. As a short version, his, "I doubt Guardian would be ballsy enough to claim SK as mafia" just didn't hold up at all, and I have trouble believing he couldn't see that.

[Incognito]

Nothing Guardian^2 said is useful, because I can guarantee you that he was fully expecting to be lynched yesterday and played accordingly. He said himself that he replaced in expecting to do some distancing and then take the lynch, and I think that demonstrates his frame of mind from that point forward. As such, I'll accept no arguments that are based on anything that he did after that point.

That's true but one of the three people he listed as scum was NK-ed last night as town (Adel). His top choice was Matt_S and his third choice was Oman. Could the order of his scum choices been suggestive of anything?

[Incognito]

The debate between me and Xyl on this subject today probably doesn't seem that interesting to outsiders, but the reason I've been pushing it is I really feel like he used craplogic to defend Guardian yesterday. As a short version, his, "I doubt Guardian would be ballsy enough to claim SK as mafia" just didn't hold up at all, and I have trouble believing he couldn't see that.

Quite the contrary. I think the debate is kinda interesting. =P

[Patrick]

That's true but one of the three people he listed as scum was NK-ed last night as town (Adel). His top choice was Matt_S and his third choice was Oman. Could the order of his scum choices been suggestive of anything?

I'd hazard a guess he chucked a scumbuddy in the list, and I'm sure you can guess who I think that is, but Erg0's right that we can't really be setting much store by it, unless Guardian was somehow very optimistic of his chances of survival. I suppose what you're getting at is that Guardian seemed to push his Adel/Matt_S suspicions more than his Oman ones. The reason it's wifomy is that Guardian could be the type of guy who'd continue trying to confuse the town until he was literally strung up. We saw how he was keeping up an act of pretty much hysterical indignation right up until the end.

[Xylthixlm]

Incognito voted ChaosOmega early in day 2, when it looked like he might be quicklynched. Then he unvoted and switched to Oman, and kept that even though his case on ChaosOmega seemed to be stronger. But that doesn't quite fit if he's Oman's scumbuddy.

I'm not sure what to make of his vote on Adel after the replacement and then his sudden switch to Guardian^2. It could be that he was looking for someone to lynch other than one of his scumbuddies, and grabbed the Adel wagon - but I don't like that theory much either.

I hate it when I can't remember the whole game to form theories, and I don't have time to do lots of rereading.

[Jitsu]

What happened to your post 730, where you wanted to lynch CO after I checked in without any discussion? ChaosOmega was a good lynch, but certainly not that early on D2. There was still a lot to talk about at that point.

In my eyes, your pushing for CO's lynch without actually voting is way scummier than what Incognito did. I think Incognito saw the quicklynch forming and he unvoted to stop it BECAUSE he saw what was happening. Then I posted to try to get people to stop also.

I really don't have a problem with Incognito's behavior you mention because I think he was debating between two scum. Sure the case on CO looked stronger, but the strongest case is not always the best lynch, and I think Incognito was going for information.

In my mind, I'm pretty convinced that Xylthixlm and Oman are scum (probably both mafia). If right now the only thing we had to worry about were lynching scum, I'd be happy voting for either of them. But the thing that is worrying me most is the SK, assuming there is one. I think we can keep winning battles by lynching scum, but I'm worried we are going to lose the war.

[Matt_S]

I thought I asked this already, but it seems I didn't.

Jitsu: Why do you think I'm the serial killer?

[Xylthixlm]

I'm more concerned about why Jitsu wants to lynch the SK (if there is one) before mafia. Last time I ran analysis on the IRC bot's game logs (over 2000 games), the result was that a two-person scumteam is about four times as dangerous as a SK.

[Jitsu]

I thought I asked this already, but it seems I didn't.

Jitsu: Why do you think I'm the serial killer?

Mostly by process of elimination. I think Oman and Xylthixlm are scum, and I tend to think they are mafia based on their interactions with Guardian.

I think Patrick and Incognito are pretty town, and I think Erg0 is probably town also from a combination of his Day 1 conversations at the end of the day criticizing the Opie wagon, and implicating most of the current scum suspects way back then. In addition, I liked his exchange with Guardian at the end of Day 2. I think I had a similar idea in mind in my earlier exchange, but I couldn't explain it as well as Erg0 did.

I know I'm innocent, so that leaves you as the most likely candidate for ths SK. That's not a certainty, but my best guess at the moment. I still need to reread.

[Incognito]

I didn't think I had to respond to Xylthixlm's 1291 since he refuted both of his own theories but thanks, Jitsu, for doing it for me.

[Incognito]

Oman, did you ever get a chance to do this:

I have not really read Xyl. I should. I will.

What are your conclusions?

[Patrick]

Vote: Xylthixlm

[vollkan]

Oman has been prodded.