Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

[petroleumjelly]

You do realize there is a hell of a lot more things to comment on other than that, right?

[Iammars]

I thought I posted my stance on ckd/has. I guess I didn't make it clear then. I believe that the two claims aren't contradictory, and don't see why we necessarily have to lynch one of them. I believe that Battle Mage is scummier than either player.

And @ BM: I'm not sure if I answered your question from earlier fully. Defensiveness isn't necessarily a bad thing, just as long as if the player is also attacking other players. Defensiveness is the default. You can't fault someone for being at the default.

[curiouskarmadog]

I thought I posted my stance on ckd/has. I guess I didn't make it clear then. I believe that the two claims aren't contradictory, and don't see why we necessarily have to lynch one of them. I believe that Battle Mage is scummier than either player.

And @ BM: I'm not sure if I answered your question from earlier fully. Defensiveness isn't necessarily a bad thing, just as long as if the player is also attacking other players. Defensiveness is the default. You can't fault someone for being at the default.

this is a load of bullshit and I know exactly where my vote will go tomorrow if I dont hang today.

Has said I targetted pooky last night...I DID NOT in any manner...that is directly contradictory..please explain how it isnt.

[petroleumjelly]

hasdgfas claims that he tracked CKD to targeting Pooky. CKD claims he targeted RossWilliam. That is as contradictory as you get.

I cannot even see a case where hasdgfas can have some sort of 'Sanity' problem, since that would require Thesp to essentially randomly choose a player for CKD to have 'targeted'. Explain to me more fully why you think the two claims aren't contradictory, s'il vous plait.

[Iammars]

Has said I targetted pooky last night...I DID NOT in any manner...that is directly contradictory..please explain how it isnt.

Wow. I've spent most of today thinking that CKD blocked Pooky. I need a drink. (Non-alchololic, obv.)

(There could be a bus driver or other redirector...)

Yeah. I need to reread today then.

[petroleumjelly]

Vote: Iammars

.

[mathcam]

5.) I obviously will not be pursuing mathcam on the basis that he did not answer my questions while I was gone, but he is now officially on my "makes Jelly very sad" list.

Oddly enough, I find this to be the most compelling reason to answer your questions so far. I will try to be accommodating in the future, as long as I don't feel like you're completely wasting my time. I do want to point out that while your play seems to be consistent (a la the Sanity Mafia link), I think it's odd that someone who relies so heavily on meta-analysis could be completely oblivious to a meta-fact of particular relevance to their own play -- namely, that being antagonistic typically does not have the desired consequences. Finally, perhaps this is more for a meta-discussion after the game, but treating what is unquestionably a game as a job is bound to have some negative side effects, in particular including increased frustration at those who treat it the way it was intended. (Admittedly, though, there are those who do not seem to even take it seriously enough for them to really even be considered as playing the game, let alone taking it as a job).

Beep, Mathcam has unvoted me....I dont believe his reason, I think that he doesnt want to assocaited with my lynch.

You don't believe my stated reason that I don't want you lynched yet because you think I don't want you lynched? Not only does that not make sense, but there's also no way I could disassociate myself from your lynch if I wanted to -- I've been pursuing it quite adamantly today.

PJ: First, I think posts 1689-1690 are fantastic -- while I might not agree with your philosophy on how to play the game, I can't deny that the amount of effort you put in is greatly beneficial to the town. I do, however, tend to worry about over-meta-ing. It seems to me that Thesp, knowing that most of the players in the game were also at Thespival, would have taken deliberate precautions to letting the setup be guessed at. This is pretty well evidenced by the fact that both ckd and Has are claiming roles that Thesp apparently tends not to include in his games. It seems likely to me that at least one of them is telling the truth, the alternative being that they happened to be on opposite (the same??) scum groups that just happened to end up in an amusingly complicated lie on both sides.

I think I'm pretty decided on ckd. Maybe I've just fallen into a self-fulfilling prophecy with ckd's posts, but every time he posts makes me more confident that he's scum. I tried reading from the start of the day through now envisioning has as scum and ckd as town, and vice-versa, and it just seems that almost every sentence of ckd's is slightly off from what I think he would have written if he were telling the truth. I have no doubt that his bread-crumb was deliberate, but I don't see that as particularly strong evidence in his favor. I think it's more likely that a pro-town ckd would have believed Pooky and revealed he was one of the two targeters, whereas a mafia would rather take his chances staying quiet and bread-crumbing in case it was necessary to come up with a cover story later.

Cam

p.s. Iammars: . You have got to get your head in the game. I think you owe use at least a re-read of the day, if not the whole game.

[mathcam]

Vote: ckd.

Cam

[Beep! Beep!]

Opportunist.

vote: mathcam

[mathcam]

I don't think that makes any sense whatsoever. I've been voting ckd for the majority of the day now, and only briefly took my vote off because I didn't want the day to end without hearing again from some people who hadn't posted in a while.

What "opportunity" do you think has recently arisen that I'm taking advantage of? The fact that people seem to be being swayed away from the ckd lynch recently?

The more I think about it the more that post boggles my mind. If ckd weren't so appealing as a lynch...

Cam

[Beep! Beep!]

The opportunity may not be new. This sentence caught my attention:

"Maybe I've just fallen into a self-fulfilling prophecy with ckd's posts"

Care to explain in more depth? What is it about his posts?

[mathcam]

Making use of information that incriminates a player is not opportunism, especially when backed up by several in-depth posts supporting my vote. And if you thought my first vote was opportunistic, why didn't you mention it then?

And no, I can't explain in more depth. The entire essence of that post is "I can't explain why, but all of ckd's posts seem scummy to me." For example, PJ's town-disparanging feels pro-town, and CKD's town-disparaging feels like desperate scum maneuvering, but I'm not sure I could articulate the difference very clearly.

Regardless, I'm shocked that you would find any of this voteworthy given the fact that there is a very high probability that one of has/ckd is scum. This looks like a deliberate distraction to me.

Cam

[Beep! Beep!]

mathcam, PJ, is there no scenario where the two players may be town?

I feel pretty strongly that CKD's reaction is town, but I reckon this is only on account of meta information from Heroes Smalltown.

No other reason.

[Mastermind of Sin]

I'm still out of town, fyi.

[Battle Mage]

Opportunist.

vote: mathcam

rofl! Irony at its finest, for sure.

NB: Voting scum is not a scumtell. Or do you think Mathcam is bussing?

BM

[Beep! Beep!]

NB: Voting scum is not a scumtell. Or do you think Mathcam is bussing?

Actually, no. Or maybe. I don't know.

PJ's meta-mod-analysis makes sense. However, I have a problem believing hasdagas would invent such a preposterous role.

My own meta on CKD is that I think he might be town. I may be wrong, he might be faking it.

But I don't think things are as clearcut as they were this morning.

Since the line that separates hasdagas from CKD has become more fuzzy, I find that mathcam's revote is somewhat tainted by a possible agenda to take off the fuzz, and lead the town one way, rather than another.

I may be wrong, but I thought I should point out the possibility.

[Holy]

I've re-read hasdgfas and CKD, I've decide, I think I'll vote CKD. Meanwhile, I'll give more time for Mizzy.

Reasons to disbelieve hasdgfas's claim

...

2.)

After breaking his 'restriction', there were no tangible negative effects that he or others can see.
...

We can't see it, but he said "ungiven: unknown", maybe that is the negative effect: not given. I can believe that, unlike CKD VS Pooky thing, I don't really believe this whole RB thing, mostly because the timing though.

Opportunist.

vote: mathcam

Obviously, hasdgfas' and CKD's claim are contradictory. One of them must be lying, which means one of them must be scum, I suppose. So what's wrong with his vote btw? He has explained his decision.

I may be wrong, but I thought I should point out the possibility.

Pointing it out is okay, but voting him while we have this hasdgfas VS CKD case? That's quite distracting, IMO.

[petroleumjelly]

mathcam, PJ, is there no scenario where the two players may be town?

Instead of asking me this, why don't

you

shoulder you own burden and tell me what a scenario

would

be like where they are both town. After you do that, tell me what you think the chances are for those scenarios to be the case.

~~~~~

I was reflecting in my last philosophy class (strange, I know) on this game. I think my indecision is stemming from a few things.

1.)

The lack of arguments against hasdgfas. Only until I fully laid out the reasons to disbelieve hasdgfas did anybody really show signs of second-guessing hasdgfas. To me, there have always been a good deal of reasons to keep my eye on him, even from day one. The fact that so many players were accepting of his tracking claim today has niggled at me for a while.

2.)

Those making arguments against CKD seem to be making accusations without considering all of the circumstances. Two examples:

-->

a.)

mathcam (at the very least) accuses CKD of "not denying" having targeted Pooky, and therefore he is more likely to be scum. Not only do I not think this was the case, but we have already seen this argument fall flat on its face earlier in the game when Greasy Spot was being bandwagoned for not outwardly saying "I am not the Jester" (i.e. he did not deny being the Jester).
-->

b.)

A few players have called CKD's breadcrumb very "weak", without taking into account the

reason

his breadcrumb may have been so late (even I did not notice this until after CKD mentioned it), and the fact that his breadcrumb was substantive enough (by fitting "RB" in one post three times) that it was implausible to think he had left

separate

breadcrumbs for the possibility of him claiming

a different

role.

3.)

Although I acknowledge that this point really should not be affecting me as much as it should, nobody has really used the "Why would you block on Night One?" argument against CKD. Generally I see this type of argument being employed against any person who uses a night action which may be detrimental to the town on Night One (RB and Vig being my first couple thoughts that fit this category). I have not really decided what (if anything) this means, but I personally think this is a fairly weak argument to begin with, and (although I do not have any evidence to support this) I beieve scum are more likely to fall back on these sorts of rebuts.

~~~~~

Essentially, the actions of the town seem to be consistent with both CKD and hasdgfas being scum -- although I have a hard time believing they would be part of the same scum group (and it's worse because I also have a hard time believing there are two separate scum groups).

The acceptance of hasdgfas's claim could be indicative of a scum-group who feels it would not be in their best interest to argue with him (because they would "connect" themselves to CKD, and additionally, with two Doctors dead they probably feel that they can "safely" kill hasdgfas overnight anyways with minimal damage to themselves). On the other hand, I would expect at least

somebody

(other than myself, obviously) to try to cast doubt on hasdgfas to gauge the mood of the town to see if a mislynch is possible. But even if it

is

the case that hasdgfas is town and CKD is scum, the arguments being employed against CKD do not seem "up to snuff"; they seem like fairly weak arguments which are not holistic, or representing the game correctly. And yet by that same token,

the

most standard "bad argument" (Why would a town RB role-block on Night One?) has not even been used against him!

I suppose what this comes down to is that the reactions of the players in this game are "not meeting my expectations", and on more than one level.

[petroleumjelly]

And actually, the fact that the arguments against CKD have been generally bad (imho) could just be a further indicative of him being scum and being bussed by his buddies who have to scrounge up any plausible-sounding reason to vote for him. I'll have to think on it more.

[petroleumjelly]

Additionally, I was trying to list all of the players from this game from memory. After checking the front post to see who I missed, I think the following players need to post more:

1.) Iammars
2.) Mr Gnome It All
3.) Mizzy
4.) Mastermind of Sin

The two people I could not recall were Iammars and MGIA. I only remembered Mizzy because I remembered that SlaySlay was in the game (a person who I am more likely to take notice of because we are good friends), and I only remembered MoS because I

already

had him in my mind as somebody who seems to not be posting enough.

~~~~~

Additionally, I was wondering if we might be nearing a time where it may be prudent to have MGIA use his vote-stealing ability. If he is scum, lynching incorrectly today probably loses us the game (since he will steal a vote, and if there is one nightkill tomorrow, it will only take 4 scum to overpower the town). If he is town, he may be the only thing stopping us from losing the game (although if that is the case, we will have likely lost anyways since nightkilling him would return said vote to hypothetical scum). I would like some opinions on this.

[Beep! Beep!]

I thought there might be a bus-driver or some other mechanic that screws up results, and I'm more than a little embarrassed that I had not considered the possibility of 2 scumgroups, perhaps because we have caught no scum so far.

[hasdgfas]

lurker agreement

[Beep! Beep!]

Anything else?

[hasdgfas]

MGIA overelaboration?

[Beep! Beep!]

I looked up MGIA.

MGIA Michigan Green Industry Association
MGIA Multi-Grid Iterative Approach

Which is it?