Reasons to disbelieve hasdgfas's claim
1.)
No person in a Thesp game has ever had a post restriction.
2.)
After breaking his 'restriction', there were no tangible negative effects that he or others can see.
3.)
The A-word and the H-word never had anything to do with Thespival. We simply played a regular game of Mostly Mute.
4.)
No Thesp game has ever required for a player to achieve a stated objective in-thread to gain an ability of any sort.*
5.)
No Thesp game has ever had a 'random' ability (such as JoaT).
6.)
He basically has to rely on "doublekill" explanation for the Sarcastro kill on Night Two. Not only that, but he hedged his bets ahead of time by continually brining in double-kill possibility.
7.)
No explanation for why he chose to track CKD.
8.)
Claimed that his stalling for why he was not describing what his card looked like – namely, that he wanted a consensus -- "twas joke". I can actually understand somebody wanting a consensus before claiming something like that, but calling it a
joke
does not make sense to me.
Reasons to believe hasdgfas's claim
1.)
The Mostly Mute game at Thespival was particularly memorable, and no other player has a similar claimed restriction or anything related to that game.
2.)
It is not clear whether hasdgfas had knowledge about this particular game of Thespival (i.e. may not have known to fake this particular restriction).
Reasons to disbelieve CKD's claim
1.)
His breadcrumb was extraordinarily late in the game.
2.)
Although he does have a plausible explanation for the explanation of his late breadcrumb (see: reason to believe #1), it also would be a plausible thing for scum to breadcrumb at that point in time, if he was frightened that Pooky would indeed claim the result that Talitha was targeted by CKD and one other player and he had actually killed Talitha that night.
3.)
At least according to mathcam, CKD did not deny having targeted Pooky (although I personally think voting hasdgfas is a denial in itself).
4.)
Thesp has never used a role-blocker of any sort in any of his games so far.
5.)
He has only claimed to have targeted dead players with his ability.
Reasons to believe CKD's claim
1.)
His breadcrumb actually did come at a logical point in time; Pooky had claimed to watch two players target Talitha, and at that point CKD left his crumb (having claimed to have targeted Talitha on both N1 and N2). His breadcrumb is also very 'solid' in the sense he repeated it three times so there could be no arguments from 'coincidence' thrust against him.
2.)
After having isolated all of his posts, I see no indication of any other breadcrumbs for roles in any of CKD's posts (although his sentences did form the word "tit" quite often, if that is of any significance).
3.)
After having looked at Mini 486 (where CKD breadcrumbed Mason), his crumb-type is consistent with that which he dropped in this game.
~~~~~
At the very least, I do believe that CKD targeted Talitha on N2 (given his breadcrumb in reaction to Pooky), but I am not sure what this says about his alignment as of yet. If CKD is scum, this would essentially necessitate CKD having killed on both N2 (Talitha) and N3 (Pooky), which is certainly a plausible theory (in that an otherwise 'ignored' player kills two experienced players).
I am still deciding what to think about what CKD might have otherwise claimed. He could have simply agreed that he had targeted Pooky last night, but that he was also a role-blocker. Either way, he would be claiming to have targeted two players in a row that had been nightkilled (either {Talitha, RW} or {Talitha, Pooky}). Of course, in so doing he would essentially be confirming that hasdgfas likely has a tracking ability. I am leaning towards the belief that if CKD were scum, he actually
would
deny having targeted Pooky, since it would at least give the town another immediate 'option' for a lynch choice.
Regardless, this is probably a waste of my time. Even if I conclude that I think hasdgfas is scum and CKD is town (which I am actually starting to lean towards, after having reflected on the issue over the course of a small vacation – pending my question at the end of this post, at least), CKD will probably be today's lynch despite what I say.
Question for CKD: What do you mean when you say there are "two pictures" on your card?
