Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Guardian]

I'm tending to think it is Oman too.

I don't really fear a mafia quicklynch of Oman if he's not, so:

vote: Oman

======================================================

Votecount #47

Guardian - 2 (Erg0,Oman)

Oman - 1 (Guardian)

Not voting - 6 (Patrick, Jitsu, Xylthixlm, Matt_S, Incognito, Adel)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Jitsu]

My post 1155 is the solution here.

You are making it seem like the only choice that Guardian^2-SK has to survive is to play nice with the town. That's hardly true, given that myself and others have outlined situations where you as SK would have plenty of other options, some of which could even be better than taking orders from the town.

Even if it means a town loss, it will mean an SK loss as well, so Guardian, you better damn well do what we say, or we will ensure that you lose, even if it means we lose."

Presented with that threat (that you should be making), I *have* to do what you say.

Not if you can get yourself into a position where you can't be lynched tomorrow, and I believe it's possible for you to do that either way, as long as you aren't lynched. If you really cannot be NKed, the possibility that you could get into a situation where you couldn't be NKed and that the town could not lynch you before endgame should be enough for the mafia to seriously consider confirming your claim right now.

[Guardian]

I'm not going to say one way or another if I can be NK'd at this time.

There is no scenario where the town *cannot* lynch me. This is an iterated prisoner's dilemma. Round 1 is today and tonight.

If you cooperate by not lynching me, I cooperate by not NKing.

If you cooperate and I defect, and NK, you defect tomorrow, and lynch me, because you credibly threaten to do so. I can't dick you over because of a credible threat. This seems not that complicated.

[Jitsu]

Here is the counterexample:

We start at 5-1-3.
We cooperate and lynch Mafia today -> 5-1-2.
Mafia NK a townie -> 4-1-2.
You defect and NK a townie -> 3-1-2.

Now the town cannot lynch you tomorrow, because if we do, it is 3-0-2 going into tomorrow night, and the mafia NK makes it 2-0-2, which is very likely a Mafia win.

[Adel]

Guardian: I think Jitsu is scum willfully ignoring the evidencce in an attempt to drown out the defense of you that is the single thing most likly to keep the mafia from winning. I'm tmepted to lynch him today so that you can NK Oman tonight.

[Guardian]

I think Jitsu just doesn't get it. :\

[Guardian]

Jitsu, it is not advantageous for me to defect, cuz then you can still kill me...

it's called 'credible threat'. O.O

You also assume that I can 'defect and kill townies' at will; I could even if I chose to defect, which I wouldnt cuz its suboptimal play, i might try to hit townie and hit sucm.

[Jitsu]

Guardian: I think Jitsu is scum willfully ignoring the evidencce in an attempt to drown out the defense of you that is the single thing most likly to keep the mafia from winning. I'm tmepted to lynch him today so that you can NK Oman tonight.

I was wondering if you were scum or not. Thanks for cleaning that up.

[Guardian]

Jitsu, is she?

[Xylthixlm]

This complicated analysis is stupid.

If it is 5-3-1, and we lynch Guardian, then it is 4-3 tomorrow. That means three consecutive days of LyLo. The chances of winning that are miniscule. On the other hand, if we don't lynch Guardian, we have a better chance - even though it isn't entirely under our control.

[Jitsu]

Jitsu, is she?

At this point, I think she is more likely to be scum than not.

My best guess is that you, Oman, and Adel are scum, in descending order of certainty. If we do have a fourth, which seems to be likely, I am torn between Matt_S and Xylthixlm, leaning slightly toward the latter.

I reread and I get what you are saying now, but I don't know whether to believe you yet.

[Adel]

This complicated analysis is stupid.

If it is 5-3-1, and we lynch Guardian, then it is 4-3 tomorrow. That means three consecutive days of LyLo. The chances of winning that are miniscule. On the other hand, if we don't lynch Guardian, we have a better chance - even though it isn't entirely under our control.

it really is that stupid... which is why I suddenly think that Jitsu is scum. This would be his first game as scum, and I think he just tried to pull one over on the town.

[Adel]

EBWOP: stupid = simple

[Erg0]

Think of it this way:

Why would I claim SK if I didn't legitimately think a rational town would not lynch me?

This is why we're not lynching me Erg0.

As I said before, your claim only proves that you want to survive. Survival is a goal common to mafia and an SK. SK might not be the best claim, but it sure beats claiming mafia.

[Erg0]

Also. LyLo is not the the worst outcome from not lynching Guardian, it is the most likely outcome. The

worst

outcome is a loss before day 3.

[Erg0]

This complicated analysis is stupid.

If it is 5-3-1, and we lynch Guardian, then it is 4-3 tomorrow. That means three consecutive days of LyLo. The chances of winning that are miniscule. On the other hand, if we don't lynch Guardian, we have a better chance - even though it isn't entirely under our control.

Glossing over the alternative scenario does not help us to make a better decision. We've got a choice between two kinds of bad here.

[Xylthixlm]

We lynch Guardian -> 4-3-0, almost certain loss
We don't lynch Guardian
..We lynch town
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 4-2-0, bad but winnable
......Guardian shoots town -> 3-3-0, loss
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 4-3-0, almost certain loss
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 3-2-1, bad but winnable
......Guardian shoots town -> 2-3-1, mafia wins
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 3-3-1, bad but winnable
..We lynch mafia
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 5-1-0, probable win
......Guardian shoots town -> 4-2-0, bad but winnable
....Mafia shoots Guardian, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 5-2-0, possible win
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian shoots
......Guardian shoots mafia -> 4-1-1, probable win
......Guardian shoots town -> 3-2-1, bad but winnable
....Mafia shoots town, Guardian doesn't shoot -> 4-2-1, bad but winnable

Only one of the situations where we don't lynch Guardian are worse than if we lynched him - namely if we lynch town, Guardian shoots town, and mafia shoot Guardian. Every other possibility is at least as good as lynching Guardian, and some of them are actually decent chances at a win.

[Adel]

Xylthixlm: why did it take you so long to generate that?
Why did it take you so long to weigh in with an opinion on lynching a claimed SK?

Patrick should know better.

Jitsu left out evidence in a suspicious way.

Oman should post.

mod: prod for oman, please

Likelihood of being mafia: Oman > everyone else.

[Guardian]

Matt_S needs to stop lurking too.

Adel, vote Oman?

[Guardian]

Xyl is defending not lynching me much better than I could. Thanks Xyl .

[Adel]

I am voting Oman.

[Guardian]

Odd. K. Good.

[vollkan]

mod: prod for oman, please

Prodded Oman

[Guardian]

I am confused where Adel voted Oman.

I saw here "unvote, Oman" in bold, but where was the vote? That was why I got confused, it is odd for me to count that as a vote.

[vollkan]

Votecount corrected