Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[Battle Mage]

@BM: what vote? 543 was rather pointless as it stated the obvious.

Worst case scenario is that this is our last day. Thus, it may be wise to act as though we are at lylo. Yes, we can rely on luck, however, I would rather not...

no, the penultimate sentence made literally no sense. 0.o

Meanwhile, You FoSed Thinktank for a post made by Joubert. Explanation?

ftr, i dont think this is LyLo, but i think a massclaim could be a good plan anyway for aforementioned reasons.

BM

[aioqwe]

First three sentences addressed jorb on whether the sk is a faction or not. The next part of the post was adressed to TT and basically said we should take precautions as though this were a LyLo case even if it isn't. Simply because, tomorrow we could wake up to a town loss. I FoSed TT because it seems so scummy to try and make the town feel comfortable only to nk and over night. Besides it provides a nice way to say no to a mass claim and avoid having to come up with a role that fits.

[vIQleS]

OK...

I'm voting no to mass claim because I have a theory that might help us narrow the odds of getting a mafia lynch.

I'm going to share it but I want to do a good detailed read of everyone posting today, and I'm in one of my busy weekends.

I'll try and do a decent reread tonight - otherwise i'll do it tomorrow morning... And I'll definitely post something tormorrow sometime...

[vIQleS]

Last night I both blocked and protected Battle Mage.

Last night we had only one kill.

My theory:

Battle Mage
1. has a killing role
and
2. was a target last night.

Any flaws in my logic?

There is of course a possibility of another blocking / protecting role, but I don't think its a good idea for them to come out just yet...

And in the absence of any other info, I think a BM lynch would be the best bet right now...

vote: Battle Mage

PS - I may as well seeing as i've come out anyway:

I'm the Head of secuirity, a jailkeeper. Every night I choose someone and lock them up...

[Battle Mage]

Ok, a few things.

1. You are the head of security? i thought we had concluded that the Vigilante was this game's 'security'?

That said, i think the claim makes sense. I cant see scum trying a No Kill gambit, and it makes sense that i was targetted after nailing Rosso.

BM

[aioqwe]

Then does that mean you are an sk?
The vig could be some for of security guard. Do you lock people up yourselves?
Don't you think it is more likely that he was just targetted or just attempting to kill some one?

[SensFan]

Then does that mean you are an sk?

Pay attention. vIQ claimed Jailkeeper.

And yeah, the logic makes sense.

Vote: BM

, the Jailkeep claim actually does a realistic job of explaining the missing 2 kills.

[Battle Mage]

I'm surprised at the obvious opportunism here. Give this some thought for a minute.

I replaced in yesterday and contributed significantly in nailing Rosso Carne-Scum. I'm also, as far as i'm aware, the most experienced player left in the game. So what about me being targetted seems surprising to you?

Vote: Sensfan

BM

[SensFan]

I'm surprised at the obvious opportunism here. Give this some thought for a minute.

I replaced in yesterday and contributed significantly in nailing Rosso Carne-Scum.

So the Scum want you dead, yes.

I'm also, as far as i'm aware, the most experienced player left in the game.

Uhhh...vIQ?

So what about me being targetted seems surprising to you?

Scum would want you dead, SK might think you bussed Scum.

[Battle Mage]

I'm surprised at the obvious opportunism here. Give this some thought for a minute.

I replaced in yesterday and contributed significantly in nailing Rosso Carne-Scum.

So the Scum want you dead, yes.

I'm also, as far as i'm aware, the most experienced player left in the game.

Uhhh...vIQ?

So what about me being targetted seems surprising to you?

Scum would want you dead, SK might think you bussed Scum.

Hmm yeh ViQ might be more experienced than me. I havent seen him in any other games, so i dont know. Anyway, i'm a tad confused.
If the SK thought i

bussed

scum, wouldnt he want to LYNCH me?
The way i see it, and apparently you agree with me, i'm a pretty obvious target for scum. Lucky for me, we have ViQ.

BM

[thinktank]

BM, you may not be scum but that doesn't stop you from being the SK. As it stands I see no fault in Viqles logic and highly doubt his claim to be false because he honestly has nothing to gain. if he falsely claims and you are town, the SK and mafia take down 2 more people, theres a good chance that there will be atleast one crosskill and then the town lynches Viqles tomorrow morning, all this is ignoring the possible vig and other power roles.

BM got anything to say before I lay a vote?

[SensFan]

If the SK thought i

bussed

scum, wouldnt he want to LYNCH me?

"Hey guys! I know BM, like, handed us that Rosso lynch, but I really think he's Scum, bussing Rosso. Let's lynch him, ok?"

Are you

ACTUALLY

saying that the Town would follow that logic?

[Battle Mage]

BM, you may not be scum but that doesn't stop you from being the SK. As it stands I see no fault in Viqles logic and highly doubt his claim to be false because he honestly has nothing to gain. if he falsely claims and you are town, the SK and mafia take down 2 more people, theres a good chance that there will be atleast one crosskill and then the town lynches Viqles tomorrow morning, all this is ignoring the possible vig and other power roles.

BM got anything to say before I lay a vote?

omg. I actually feel like this is a newbie game, as opposed to a mini. Listen to this carefully as i'm only going to say it once:

An SK is scum. Scum is the collective term for all anti-town roles. This is not a case of me vs ViQles. The fact is, he is almost certainly town. But that isnt a case against me, as even if we assume that ViQles is 100% town,

the odds of me being scum are still very slim

.
It really annoys me that you seem to be willing to vote despite having not grasped the fact that a JailKeeper PROTECTS AND ROLEBLOCKS. Mathematically the chance of me being protected (and hence, town) is equal to, if not greater than, the chance of me being roleblocked (scum). And thats not taking into account the logic which strongly suggests why i was targetted by the SK last night.

BM

[Battle Mage]

If the SK thought i

bussed

scum, wouldnt he want to LYNCH me?

"Hey guys! I know BM, like, handed us that Rosso lynch, but I really think he's Scum, bussing Rosso. Let's lynch him, ok?"

Are you

ACTUALLY

saying that the Town would follow that logic?

is the SK thinks its true, i dont see why you think the town would see things any differently?

BM

[vIQleS]

Ok, a few things.

1. You are the head of security? i thought we had concluded that the Vigilante was this game's 'security'?

That said, i think the claim makes sense. I cant see scum trying a No Kill gambit, and it makes sense that i was targetted after nailing Rosso.

BM

Indeed, and also:

6. armlx, Surveillance System, Tracker, stuffed full of straw Night 1

So there's definitely a security theme of some sort running here...

Then does that mean you are an sk?

Answered.

The vig could be some for of security guard. Do you lock people up yourselves?

My PM says that

I

detain them. I don't have any communication with anyone else. (At this point in the game)

Don't you think it is more likely that he was just targetted or just attempting to kill some one?

I don't think that it is

more

likely.
I do however accept the

possiblilty

that there might have been another block or protection. (As i mentioned in my post above.)

In the absence of any other info though; I think our best odds of lynching scum is BM (see below).

Hmm yeh ViQ might be more experienced than me. I havent seen him in any other games, so i dont know.

I've been around longer, but BM has a lot more experience than me:

BM - vIQleS

The way I see it I either:
1. Blocked BM from killing (Scum)
or
2. Protected him from being killed (Town)
or
3. Both (Scum)

That gives him a 66% chance of being scum, whereas if we were to just lynch at random we have a 33% chance of hitting scum.

[vIQleS]

This is not a case of me vs ViQles. The fact is, he is almost certainly town. But that isnt a case against me, as even if we assume that ViQles is 100% town,

the odds of me being scum are still very slim

.

Hem...

See above...

If my maths is wrong, please let me know...

[Battle Mage]

In the absence of any other info though; I think our best odds of lynching scum is BM (see below).

Hmm yeh ViQ might be more experienced than me. I havent seen him in any other games, so i dont know.

I've been around longer, but BM has a lot more experience than me:

BM - vIQleS

Yeh, u've played about 25 games, ive played over 70 i think. But perhaps more relevant is the fact that i am way more over-rated than u. lol

The way I see it I either:
1. Blocked BM from killing (Scum)
or
2. Protected him from being killed (Town)
or
3. Both (Scum)

That gives him a 66% chance of being scum, whereas if we were to just lynch at random we have a 33% chance of hitting scum.

lol nice try. Unfortunately u seem to have a misguided use of statistics here. Firstly, the fact there are 3 options, does not mean they are equally weighted. The chance of me being Both targetted for NK, and the culprit of an NK, requires us to have 3 killing roles still remaining in the game, which frankly seems like a virtual impossibility atm. As such, the odds of Option 3 is about 2% tops. Now regarding the other two, lets look at the facts. Assuming we are dealing with an SK, there is an equal chance of it being each of us. As such, there's statistically a 1 in 7 chance of me committing the SK kill last night.
On the other hand, what are the odds of me being targetted last night? When i've been an SK in the past, i aim to take out the players who lead the town, and actively hunt scum. Hell it can even be a good idea to take people out simply because they are experienced. So, i ask again, use ur head here. What are the odds of me being the target of a kill last night, because as far as i can see, any other conclusion is pretty damn illogical at this point.

Oh btw, ViQ, did you claim targets from previous nights? Roleblockers are confirmable, although sadly, i cant confirm you.

BM

[Joubert]

My father is stronger than u, lol woot, whatever, Red Herring. Seriously, BM, your experience doesn't make you more or less Scum, it's not related. You're also implying that the odds of you being targetted last night are low, but I don't see why. Your sole argument is based our your own past experience...

The chance of me being Both targetted for NK, and the culprit of an NK, requires us to have 3 killing roles still remaining in the game, which frankly seems like a virtual impossibility atm

Ah?... Virtual impossibility? One Mafia, one SK and one Vig. Seems very possible to me. I think vIQleS' idea is most likely accurate. Of course, theoretically speaking, nothing is 100% sure, but that's the nature of lynch: you choose the one who is more likely to be Scum. Besides, BM's logic in respond to the plan seems flawed...

Vote: Battle Mage

[vIQleS]

lol nice try. Unfortunately u seem to have a misguided use of statistics here. Firstly, the fact there are 3 options, does not mean they are equally weighted.

You're absolutely right, however I would have weighted it in the exact opposite direction:

The chance of me being Both targetted for NK, and the culprit of an NK, requires us to have 3 killing roles still remaining in the game, which frankly seems like a virtual impossibility atm. As such, the odds of Option 3 is about 2% tops.

Disagree.

With all the power roles, it seems quite likely that we still have one mafia and 1 SK. As niether of them killed last night, the odds of you being a killing role as well as a target are quite high - despite what the rules of logic would suggest (i.e. two things being true rather than just one...). So if anything, I'd say that you have a better than 66% chance of being scum.

At the very least you have a 50% chance: either I blocked you or I protected you. That's much better than lynching at random: there's 6 alive and, we think, 2 scum, that's 2:6 or 33% or 1:6 = 16%

Oh btw, ViQ, did you claim targets from previous nights? Roleblockers are confirmable, although sadly, i cant confirm you.

If you like, although I don't want anybody to claim power roles unless they really have to:

Night 1: Sensfan
Night 2: You.

[SensFan]

Night 1: Sensfan

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that proves I'm not SK, right?

[thinktank]

See you in another game.

As MC Hammer as well the riders from Warcraft would say, " It's Hammer Time!"

Vote: Battle Mage

[vIQleS]

Night 1: Sensfan

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that proves I'm not SK, right?

Hadn't thought of it like that - but yes, I suppose it does...

Doesn't prove you're not mafia tho...

We'll see what happens with BM...

[pete d]

Day 3 Final Vote Count

Battle Mage (4): vIQleS, SensFan, Joubert, thinktank
SensFan (1): Battle Mage

Not Voting (1): aioqwe

The remaining guests quickly decide that Battle Mage cannot be trusted. Conveniently, the military happens to be conducting nuclear tests nearby.

Battle Mage, Sigfried-come-Tiger, Tiger Roleblocker, lynched Day 3

It is now Night 3. The deadline for Night choices will be next Tuesday (that is, Monday) as I will be busy over the weekend.

[pete d]

The town wakes to discover that another member is missing.

vIQleS, Head of Casino Security, Jailkeeper, torn to pieces and stuffed full of straw Night 3

With 4 alive, it will take 3 to lynch. thinktank has informed me that he will not be able to post until ~ the 30th.

[aioqwe]

so we have 2 mafia groups 1 scum each, both are goons probably (scarecrows were 3 goons, tigers were a 1rb and 1 goon)

If we no lynch then we have A scum, B scum, and 2 town going into the night.
If both of the mafia pick of different townies, we loose
If both mafia pick off the same townie tomorrow we should no lynch so that we have a chance of winning (scum cross-kill)

If we lynch 1 mafia, we have 1 mafia and 2 scum going into the night. Assuming we don't have a doc, bulletproof townie, commuter, another jailkeeper etc., we are down to 1 townie and 1 scum, hence we loose

If we lynch a town then we have 1 townie A scum and B scum going into the night. Y'all should know the scenarios of that.

If anyone has no objections, I'll go ahead and vote myself.