Mini #564 - Mafia in Crubtown - Game Over

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

PP one last question about all this: your two main points the joke nature and the sentance about not reading all of mozs post how exactly do you see these two points don't make sense in the context of a L-1 vote and make more sense in a Hammer vote?

[Crub]

Third Vote Count of Day 2

thevampireofdusseldorf (3):

Pink Puppy, windkirby, darkdude

darkdude (2):

vikingfan, Cephrir

Pink Puppy (1):

thevampireofdusseldorf

Not Voting (4):

Akonas, QuantumFruit, Talitha, zeddicus

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

[windkirby]

Ceph - I don't feel comfortable lynching VoD. As I've said before, I just feel that seeing as how my vote is my only weapon, I'd like to have it in use at all times.

[darkdude]

And what, are we supposed to ignore what people say in their own defense? Lesse here, you were under suspicion at one point, right? Maybe we should bring it back up and disregard completely anything you or anyone else said defending you.

I don't think VoD has a good defense. He's basically saying that he made a mistake by accident and we should ignore it. To me the best way to deal with this is to push for more information.

And you guys seem to be over concerned about revealing a power role. Isn't there double to triple the probability that we could be pressuring a scum to a cop? The reluctance is already seeming suspicious in my eyes.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

@windkirby
C'mon you can't believe your vote is your only weapon, your only weapon is your brain behind the vote and all other actions you take during the game.

@darkdude If it really was an accident what do you think pushing for more info is going to do? I have been pushed as hard as anyone is able to and as far as I have seen it has gone nowhere so pushing me to claim seems to be a last effort to try and make this suspicion go anywhere. Perhaps leaving this on the backburner as others have done and looking at other people while still keeping an eye on me might be a better choice.

[Cephrir]

Ceph - I don't feel comfortable lynching VoD. As I've said before, I just feel that seeing as how my vote is my only weapon, I'd like to have it in use at all times.

Your vote is helping pressure VoD to a claim right now, and if you don't really want him lynched you might want to move it.

I don't think VoD has a good defense. He's basically saying that he made a mistake by accident and we should ignore it. To me the best way to deal with this is to push for more information.

That's not what you said. You said, "anything in mafia is defendable", etc. To me, that means the same as "defenses should be ignored", and that's ridiculous.

[Pink Puppy]

PP one last question about all this: your two main points the joke nature and the sentance about not reading all of mozs post how exactly do you see these two points don't make sense in the context of a L-1 vote and make more sense in a Hammer vote?

It's not that the points make more sense if you were hammering. I think the points stand either way. I just am having a hard time believing that you didn't know you were hammering since there was a lot of voting that day and a vote count on the last page. What does not make sense to me is that you didn't know what you were doing.

I concede that it's possible. I just know in that situation that I would have tried to find out how many votes were on somebody before voting them.

I am going to try to to look at other people though. I don't want to be blinded by this one disagreement.

[windkirby]

Ceph - He has only half the votes it takes to get lynched. A claim is completely unnecessary, and we shouldn't pressure him to do one just to start discussion. Therefore, I remain comfortable with the placement of my vote at the moment.

[Pink Puppy]

I think VoD should claim to at least give us something to work on.

Well, everyone knows how I feel about VoD, but I don't think it's a good idea to push anyone to a claim unless more people agree.

And I don't think claims really help THAT much. Unless they keep you from lynching a PR, and then they might die that night, so in the long run it doesn't help that much.

I'd much rather debate the issue (although I think with VoD I can't talk about it anymore without repeating myself), debate other issues, and arrive at a conclusion not based so much on a claim.

Insistence on a claim is pretty weird to me... as I think it helps mafia more than town. At least at this early stage. Am I wrong? Anyone that knows more about the prevailing wisdom... feel free to school me.

I also think how darkdude didn't vote VoD, and then did it after viking called him out, was weird (I posted on it in post 301). I don't like when people support a bandwagon without voting, but somehow find it scummier when they give into pressure to vote later. Like they only vote because they got caught. And I want people to think for themselves, even if it disagrees with me. I don't like it when they're like "oh, okay I'll do what you want." Like... WHY?

unvote; vote darkdude

[darkdude]

That's not what you said. You said, "anything in mafia is defendable", etc. To me, that means the same as "defenses should be ignored", and that's ridiculous.

Perhaps to you, but what I meant was that just because VoD said he "put the best possible defense" doesn't mean it makes him less suspicious.

And I want people to think for themselves, even if it disagrees with me.

Well now if I change my mind and follow your advice I'll be more scummy right?

[QuantumFruit]

@windkirby:

However, I still think that it's a pretty scummy thing to do to not even check enough to know you're hammering.

How? Scum would want to be careful not to give anyone reason to suspect them. Hammering someone as scum is very dangerous already, so scum would want to build up a good case for why they did it. I didn't realize is not a good case. Scum would realize, and they'd have to realize. I just don't agree with your logic.

(VoD, you wanted me to clarify what I mean by sloppy as well, so hopefully that's an adequate explanation.)

---

@darkdude:

I don't think VoD has a good defense. He's basically saying that he made a mistake by accident and we should ignore it. To me the best way to deal with this is to push for more information.

This is tripe and horrible for town. There is nothing more to discuss on the issue, he can continue saying it was an accident and whoever doesn't believe him can not believe him and we can argue until we get a deadline and not focus on anyone else. Fine. That would be bad for town, whether he's scum or not, because even if we end up catching scum (and I don't feel like VoD is), we haven't paid attention to anyone else and we have nothing to go off of.

Pushing him for more information - the only "more information" we could have would be a role claim. No one would claim scum, except in a joking context. It would be unwise. So, he claims vanilla townie and it doesn't help anyone and still no one will believe him. Or, he claims a power role. Either (as he explained already) someone counterclaims and his scum buddies NK the cop, or he's town and he's a power role so he gets NK-ed. If he's vanilla townie and claims a power role, well, that's just stupid - the actual power role townie will get NK-ed and he'll get lynched. So, no positive outcome for town, even if we push him to claim.

Also,

He's basically saying that he made a mistake by accident and we should ignore it.

He's not saying we should ignore it, he's just saying we should keep other things in mind, which we should. There's really no additional defense he could give and we should keep it in mind in case he does anything else. He concedes that.

Your band-wagoning, sycophancy, and lack of thinking things through perturbs me. If you'd thought about it, you could have come to everything I've just told you on your own. So, that leads me to believe that you're purposefully trying to mislead us, hoping we won't think it through. Which makes me think even more that VoD is town because you are avidly attacking him while trying to remain un-suspicious and not backing stuff up (but that's a bit irrelevant).

Now, this is serious business -

Vote: darkdude

.

[QuantumFruit]

By the way, sorry for the long post, guys. Hadn't posted in a while.

[darkdude]

He's not saying we should ignore it, he's just saying we should keep other things in mind, which we should. There's really no additional defense he could give and we should keep it in mind in case he does anything else. He concedes that.

I really could not find anyone more suspicious than he was. Also I don't think one could easily conclude whether something like more information based on claim could help or not. In sincerely believe that the chances are for the better if we get more information, but if you deduce the opposite that is still fine. However you can't discredit my reasoning because this isn't something like math; the answer is arbitrary. The unknown is unaccountable and to me it seems the most promising.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

@Darkdude
I can't understnd how you think a claim will help. It has been outlined twice now what the likely results or info we will get from a claim would be.
Claim vanila town=no claim/nothing gained
Claim power role=no lynch but a nk on me
or=a counter claim with a lynch on me and a nk on the counterclaim
So to get me to claim would either: a)change nothing or
b)give scum a power role to nk

I can only see your above post making sense if you are happy to take the risk of losing another power role.
Best case scenario would be a vanila town claim but this changes nothing
Middle case scenario I am scum I claim power role and a counter claim is made I am lynched and mafia nk the counterclaimer
Worst case scenario I am a town power role and someone else is lynched and I get nked

Now I have gone and checked things throughly and I see dd is on 4 votes, if I were to vote for dd that would be L-1 (right?), So I would like to give dd some time to explain his actions further before putting him there.
So the next best thing to a vote

BigFoS:darkdude

[QuantumFruit]

@darkdude: You know who's more suspicious than he was? You. This

is

something like math. There are probabilities involved, and you have to consider them when making a decision. You are not. Hence, your reasoning is flawed because you're not thinking it through. It's not arbitrary. The only thing "arbitrary" is who believes him and who does not. Here - outcomes of claiming (again):

The probabilities will be approximately what I give, with a margin of error. Calculations done based on a fairly traditional set up (3 scum, 2 power roles, 7 vanilla townies).

1.) claim vanilla townie, town = no gain for town; 66.66% he's some variety of townie, 58.33% he is actually a vanilla townie
2.) claim vanilla townie, scum = no gain for town, maybe gain for scum if we believe him; 33.33% he's scum
3.) claim power role, town power role = doesn't get lynched, scum knows to NK him; hurts town, though gives some possibility of catching the real scum; 40% chance he is in fact a town power role (calculated as 2/5 because as townie he would not claim to be a town power role)
4.) claim power role, scum = actual power role counterclaims, he gets lynched, but mafia buddies know who the power role is and NK him; hurts town; 60% chance he's scum (3/5 for the same reason)
(I'm not including claiming a power role as a vanilla townie because I will not insult VoD's intelligence. The real power role would counterclaim, scum would NK him/her and VoD would get lynched anyway.

Nor am I including claiming scum because that would be a joke claim and not an actual claim, whether true or not.)

As a townie, he'd claim townie. As scum, his safest thing would be to claim vanilla townie, but since no one would believe him, it's probably be best to claim a power role so buddies could NK the counterclaimer if he's scum. Either way, do you understand why scum has the advantage here? The "Best Scenario" VoD mentioned would not happen, because if he claimed vanilla townie, we wouldn't believe him. If he claimed a power role, town would 100% lose a power role whether it's him or not. And that sucks for town.

[Cephrir]

Ceph - I don't feel comfortable lynching VoD. As I've said before, I just feel that seeing as how my vote is my only weapon, I'd like to have it in use at all times.

Fair enough, I guess.

VoD and I think someone else- People potentially to be lynched

do

have to claim eventually, dd was just being extremely premature. 'Cause lynching cops is bad.

dd's "explanation", if it could even be called that, was decidedly lacking. Vote stays.

[Akonas]

@VoD: I don't think your criticism of PinkPuppy for "trying to have it both ways" is accurate. She's saying (as several other people are) that you should have checked so close to a lynch; not to do so shows laziness or scumminess. It's the motivation and thought behind it that matters, contrary to what you said PP was saying.

On the one hand, it could be an honest mistake; on the other hand, it could be a scum gambit to con the town into thinking it was a mistake. Therefore, I will proceed carefully and see what comes up.

I think this has all moved way too fast and nobody else has even been seriously questioned. If these are the reasons mentioned above for pushing me on a wagon ride towards lynching then I am inclined to believe that this dubious wagon has some scum wheels on it.

And you guys seem to be over concerned about revealing a power role. Isn't there double to triple the probability that we could be pressuring a scum to a cop? The reluctance is already seeming suspicious in my eyes.

Yeah, this is a really good idea! And while we're at it, why don't we just have everyone claim?

How? Scum would want to be careful not to give anyone reason to suspect them.

Hammering someone as scum is very dangerous already, so scum would want to build up a good case for why they did it. I didn't realize is not a good case. Scum would realize, and they'd have to realize. I just don't agree with your logic.

I just don't agree with your logic.

1. A good argument is one that makes its maker seem like town.
2. Scum would make a good argument, so as to seem town.
3. vampireofdusseldorf's argument is bad, therefore scum would not make it.
4. scum would not make it, therefore it is a good argument.
Proof by contradiction. One of those must be wrong

(hint: it's 3)

; QED.

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

Akonas I know you are a little bit reserved in this game and talitha too oh and zeddicus but would be good to have more input from you all!

[Talitha]

Wow. I hope everyone is clear on this already, but in case not:

If you are pro-town, don't lie about your role.

(The only exception is if you are 100% confirmable as an innocent... and even then, it's still not necessarily a great idea). I know it's pretty obvious, but wanted to make sure we all understood that.

Secondly, apologies all for mt sub-par performance so far. My life is stupid and seriously interrupts my mafia playing. But I had a day off today and managed to spend a couple hours reading over.

Re: darkdude
His day 1 posts didn't give me enough of a feel to make a judgement on his alignment. But today it's getting interesting. Like has been mentioned, I think it's weird he's so interested in getting a claim from another player. Also, he started the day saying he wasn't suspicious of VoD's actions, but that quickly changed when the wagon on VoD started rolling.

So, I can probably support this darkdude wagon today, but I'm not in any hurry to vote. After reading over I do have a couple of others who stand out... Cephrir & Vikingfan are with darkdude in my "Top 3 most suspicious".

When I was reading over, I didn't bother writing notes, I just made note of the numbers of the posts with interesting content, so it's going to take me a little time to make my case against these Cephrir & Viking. I would like the chance to do so, though, before end of day today, just so all my reading efforts can't be wasted Unfortunately I have run out of time today, and tomorrow I am tied up all day. I will get to it though. I hate to hold the game up but I think the more discussion we get today the better, especially if we branch out and consider a couple of other players.

[darkdude]

You know who's more suspicious than he was? You. This is something like math. There are probabilities involved, and you have to consider them when making a decision.

But from my perspective, since I know that I am pro town, I can 100% eliminate this possibility. Of course there is no conclusive proof which I can present to you, especially since you have made a case on me already which I cannot defend whether I am actually pro town or not; if I stay my opinion I'll get suspicion, if I change my opinion I'll get suspected for conforming in order to seem less suspicious.

About the math part:

Yes this does deal with probability and calculations. But remember the unknown factor I was talking about? How do you solve a system with two different variables given only one equation?

Yes I concur that from an objective point of view I do seem the most suspicious out of all players right now. But you cannot use that as a case against me; for as mentioned before I alone know that I am protown, therefore ignoring my own suspicious actions is fully justified. Of course I try not to be suspicious anyways so that the town would not need to unnecessarily lose a member.

Lynch me if you will then. If we are lucky there are less than 4 scum so you can survive another day.

[Cephrir]

But from my perspective, since I know that I am pro town, I can 100% eliminate this possibility. Of course there is no conclusive proof which I can present to you, especially since you have made a case on me already which I cannot defend whether I am actually pro town or not; if I stay my opinion I'll get suspicion, if I change my opinion I'll get suspected for conforming in order to seem less suspicious.

= "I have no defense and refuse to do anything about it"

Yes I concur that from an objective point of view I do seem the most suspicious out of all players right now. But you cannot use that as a case against me; for as mentioned before I alone know that I am protown, therefore ignoring my own suspicious actions is fully justified.

"I'm the most suspicious player, but you can't use that as a case against me because I'm town"

Now that you're under pressure, you're starting to sound like mozsuggs.

[darkdude]

= "I have no defense and refuse to do anything about it"

More like "Your attack can make any town into scum" but whatever.

Now that you're under pressure, you're starting to sound like mozsuggs.

I don't think he used clear logic, at least without burying it under 20~ posts.

[Akonas]

You didn't use clear logic either.

But from my perspective, since I know that I am pro town, I can 100% eliminate this possibility. Of course there is no conclusive proof which I can present to you, especially since you have made a case on me already which I cannot defend whether I am actually pro town or not; if I stay my opinion I'll get suspicion, if I change my opinion I'll get suspected for conforming in order to seem less suspicious.

Okay, but WE DON'T KNOW THAT. Your argument is moot. We're not looking for a conclusive case; we're looking for you to defend yourself, and you're doing the same thing that mozsuggs did.

Yes I concur that from an objective point of view I do seem the most suspicious out of all players right now. But you cannot use that as a case against me; for as mentioned before I alone know that I am protown, therefore ignoring my own suspicious actions is fully justified. Of course I try not to be suspicious anyways so that the town would not need to unnecessarily lose a member.

Lynch me if you will then. If we are lucky there are less than 4 scum so you can survive another day.

GRAAAAAAH!!!
:badposting:

We don't need you to prove that you're pro-town using the iron fist of logic. That's not what we mean by "defend yourself." Just freaking play the game, and don't use this craplogic crap. It's not just craplogic but lack of logic. I think what's happening here is you're a newbie, you see people attacking you, you freak out and don't know what to do. The difference between you and mozsuggs is that you weren't being an ass in the first place.

Townies don't need to worry about being seen as scum. Try to find who scum is and you will help town win. Worry overmuch about suspicion on you and you will just serve to clog up the works. I don't know whether you're scum or not; I'm getting some scum vibes, but the fact that people are suspicious of you DOES NOT MEAN YOU WILL GET LYNCHED! So just put your head on your shoulders and PLAY THE GAME.

---

On a side note:

Wow. I hope everyone is clear on this already, but in case not:

If you are pro-town, don't lie about your role.

(The only exception is if you are 100% confirmable as an innocent... and even then, it's still not necessarily a great idea). I know it's pretty obvious, but wanted to make sure we all understood that.

The other exception is when you are a power role and lying would do something really bad and there's a mass claim or something... there are times.

[darkdude]

Townies don't need to worry about being seen as scum. Try to find who scum is and you will help town win. Worry overmuch about suspicion on you and you will just serve to clog up the works. I don't know whether you're scum or not; I'm getting some scum vibes, but the fact that people are suspicious of you DOES NOT MEAN YOU WILL GET LYNCHED! So just put your head on your shoulders and PLAY THE GAME.

Well yes I know, but given the situation I think the priority right now is that I should avoid getting lynched, because if town loses 2 members by tomorrow it could be disastrous if there were 4 scum. Now the problem is that I can't defend myself! I know all about game logic; I've played it long enough online and offline, but my current situation is the result of some accumulation of inexperience in terms of the community culture here in general.

Yeah, if you're looking for a defense then there's the other one. I'm just caught in a not so newb friendly situation. The conformity argument really disables any other defenses I may have had.

It must be the thought of self defense overwhelming my other thoughts, because I fail to see other suspicious people. So sorry can't help town there, until my own mess is cleared. One detail I do see though - Akona's words sound less likely to come from scum than the others.

By the way I just remembered to elaborate on this:

"I'm the most suspicious player, but you can't use that as a case against me because I'm town"

No I'm saying that you can't use the fact that I overlooked my own suspicion as a case. Obviously you can suspect me due to scummy play, but Quantum Fruit stated that I was suspicious due to the fact that I pressured VoD while ignoring that I was also a good suspect (at least that's what I made of her statement). So simplified:

Case = I point fingers at people while ignoring possible signs of scum from myself
Counter = I did not need to concentrate on details against me if I were pro town

[thevampireofdusseldorf]

@darkdude
I had a chace to put an L-1 vote on you that probably would have caused an even greater freak out but I wished to see you expand on your defence first as I know you are new here, you have made some more rather bad plays and you have to be more sorted in your posts and aware of these things.
I agree with you in this:

but my current situation is the result of some accumulation of inexperience in terms of the community culture here in general.

I have not even completed a full game on this site yet but what has helped me to understand this "community culture" is reading through the forums or the wiki. Try reading through some medium sized games and you will get an idea of how this is played.
A good defense when under pressure is to defend yourself from the suspicions people are using to judge you as scum and also try and still look for scum under this pressure. This is a very hard act to balance and takes much practice.

Ok some points others have not picked up on.

More like "Your attack can make any town into scum" but whatever.

Darddude what sort of attack would try and make any scum into town?
Also statements like "but whatever" following a bold statement kinda undermine what you are saying, if you believe in what you are saying then there is no need for such, and if you dont believe in what you are saying there is no need to say it.

It must be the thought of self defense overwhelming my other thoughts, because I fail to see other suspicious people. So sorry can't help town there, until my own mess is cleared. One detail I do see though - Akona's words sound less likely to come from scum than the others.

Well you found people suspicious on day one and me on day two but now you say you fail to see suspicious people...look carefuly over day one and day two I'm sure you can find something, and to say sorry can't help town is very bad. I can uderstand this untill your own mess has cleared but try and balance this.

And lastly you say about Akonas you think he is not very scummy at all compared to others so you obviously think of some "others" as scum or using scummy words, would you let me know if this is sort of what you ment?