Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Jitsu]

I'm still analyzing all that went down last night.

I'm taking extra time on this because we really need to get this lynch correct. If we happen to have a 3 mafia + SK setup (not an uncommon one for Mini games, if my meta is correct), then a mislynch could give the mafia an unbeatable win strategy for Day 3.

I will have many more comments later.

======================================================

Votecount #41

Guardian - 3 (Erg0, Oman, Matt_S)

Matt_S - 2 (Guardian, Adel)
Oman - 1 (Incognito)
Adel - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 2 (Patrick, Jitsu, )

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[Xylthixlm]

I'm going to push for the Adel lynch first because I feel like she could easily slip away following a Guardian^2 lynch regardless of how it turned out.

[Matt_S]

Matt_S, you say I am the safer lynch than Adel. Why? Because I'm voting you? Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Because it seems more plausible for you to be scum than for Adel. Adel seemed to be having a crazy plan, and I wanted to see where she was going before a big lynch wagon. Of course, I was thinking that Xylthixlm was the third vote on Adel, but it seems I miscounted somewhere.

@Matt_S:

You haven't completed any games here on MS so I really have no way of meta-ing you. Can you link to at least one game from another site possibly where you've been town and one game where you've been scum? Thanks, if you can.

Sorry, I hadn't played for few years when I came here, and on random sites that probably don't exist anymore, so I have no records of any games.

I'm going to push for the Adel lynch first because I feel like she could easily slip away following a Guardian^2 lynch regardless of how it turned out.

More with people slipping away. I don't see that happening, and I see a Guardian^2 lynch revealing a lot more about Adel than the opposite.

[Incognito]

Ugh. It might be awhile before I post in here again. I'm trying to provide some final thoughts in Mini 539 about the remaining suspects in that game. x_x Hopefully tomorrow I'll provide some more input.

[Adel]

I'm going to push for the Adel lynch first because I feel like she could easily slip away following a Guardian^2 lynch regardless of how it turned out.

you suck for stealing my case against oman and applying it to me.

[Guardian]

However, don't scum always have an incentive to defend themselves? There's usually just 3 scum in a mini normal, maybe 2 if there is an SK. Scum have a huge incentive to not just roll over and die.

If he's scum, he may have decided that he had no chance of escaping, and could not further help his team by talking. So he shut up. If he's town, that could never be true, he could always help his team more by talking. I'm not saying clamming up would necessarily be the best play for scum, just that it seems more likely to come from scum than town in this situation.

I don't think that analysis is at all unreasonable, just inaccurate. :\

I guess what I'm trying to say is that I can definitely see your perspective, but want to show you that it isn't the only perspective, and in this case isn't the correct one. In theory, C_O should have not lurked day 1 or day 2, made lots of cases, not been replaced, and been an A+ townie. His lackings in that regard are regrettable, but him being lurker-scum isn't the only plausible interpretation of his play here.

I agree that it's not the only plausible explanation. It's possible that ChaosOmega has simply played a dreadful game as town, and done alot of scummy looking things, happens to have a claim that doesn't seem to fit into the setup, and simply decided he couldn't be bothered anymore. If that is the case, I'll give him a mouthful postgame, even though I doubt he'll even read it, let alone care. What I'm saying is, I think his actions and claim can be better explained by him being scum. The argument you've made here could be made as an argument against lynching anyone. Unless they're 100% confirmed scum, any lynch candidate could just be a townie who made mistakes and hasn't played in the best possible way.

I see your point here; I am trying to get you to look at this other possibility. I don't think I can argue that his actions look more likely to come from town than from scum -- some of his actions were just indefensible -- it is hard as a replacement, because I'm responsible for some things I had no control over. In my defense I'm trying to defend plays I'd never have made, and maybe the best I can do is have you see how it *could* have come from a townie, and look at my subsequent play and see how that is more likely to have come from a townie. As for the role not fitting into the setup... again I don't really disagree with you. Just, it is my role. (shrug)

[Guardian]

I'm not sure there's anything I can say to respond when you make it clear that there's nothing I can say.

Well what

could

you say?

Nothing, according to you. That's my problem, your mind is made up, and it shouldn't be.

All you can do is try to interpret CO's actions, which I've already assessed as extremely scummy. I thought this through at the start of the day, and unless you can come up with a line of argument that nobody has considered to this point, I'm not going to be changing my mind. You've got your interpretation of CO's motives, and I've got mine.

The thing is, my interpretation comes with the accuracy of knowing my role is town. Yours comes from the incorrect (or lying) perception that you think my role is scum.

Hm. I'm really town, why not give my cases a serious review today, at least, before you lynch me? What can doing so hurt?

It can create confusion and distraction, for one.

Distraction? What exactly are they going to distract from? And how is that bad for the game? And confusion? How is looking through logical cases and responding logically going to cause confusion? I'm not sure how you've presented a serious downside here.

I've read your cases, but I'm not going to vote for them today, simple as that.

Closed-minded-ness is not pro-town.

Well, I agree with you, we may not have the luxury of a mislynch -- but that in and of itself is not a reason to lynch me. From my point of view, our notbeing able to give up a mislynch makes it all the more critical that we

not

lynch me today.

The use of the phrase "in and of itself" is completely misplaced. This is hardly the only reason I want to lynch you.

Well wait, Erg0. You're bringing it up as a reason to lynch me, in addition to all your other reasons. I'm trying to get you to realize that this is not a reason to lynch me at all, any more than it is a reason to always "try to lynch scum". This reasoning says "It is important to lynch scum, and I think you are scum, so we'd better be sure to lynch you". That premises that I'm scum. Don't get stuck in the mud and closed-minded about your stance on me to the extent you have to make up shoddy, superfluous stuff like this to continue to justify it. It is easy for everyone to do, and I don't blame you for it if you are indeed town and not just trying to pile arguments on, but I want you to realize that this portion of your reasoning for voting for me shouldn't factor in at all.

Well, I'm not saying that, that's whay C_O

did

. I guess when opie turned up scum he found me most suspicious and decided to investigate. I disagree with that cop strategy, but that's what he did.

You missed my point - CO would have investigated you night 1, not night 0.

I sure am totally missing the point here. There wasn't a night 0 in this agme. C_O investigated me last night, night 1. What are you talking a bout?

Frankly, I think it's a waste of my time at this juncture.

Well, you're incorrect about that.

I don't need to refute your cases on other players in order to vote for you.

Yeah, but you do need to look at this with an open mind if you want to have a good shot at winning the game.*

*unless you are anti-town and just want me lynched, and that's something I am skeptical of. So, I ask that you open your eyes.

[Guardian]

Oman's recent post makes me want to headdesk :\. If he is pro-town and playing this way, shame on him.

Adel, respond:

I can't say I find Adel's play through the last few pages very townlike. I'm sure she'll call it information gathering, or something. Adel, if you think Oman should be the lynch (or me), then why vote Matt_S with me? Why not say "Guardian, that's nice, but I think Oman should be the lynch if not you." Why vote with me? And you say you need convincing about Matt_S from me -- what do you think of my case? Have you, at least, read through his posts as I've asked?

[Guardian]

Matt_S, you say I am the safer lynch than Adel. Why? Because I'm voting you? Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Because it seems more plausible for you to be scum than for Adel. Adel seemed to be having a crazy plan, and I wanted to see where she was going before a big lynch wagon. Of course, I was thinking that Xylthixlm was the third vote on Adel, but it seems I miscounted somewhere.

Why does it seem more plausible? Adel's admittedly picked a townie at random and railroaded them to a lynch. That is more plausibly town than a non-sane cop?

I repeat:

Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Also, your thoughts on Oman?

[Adel]

Moogle.

I <3 Oman

[Adel]

Oman's recent post makes me want to headdesk :\. If he is pro-town and playing this way, shame on him.

Adel, respond:

I can't say I find Adel's play through the last few pages very townlike. I'm sure she'll call it information gathering, or something. Adel, if you think Oman should be the lynch (or me), then why vote Matt_S with me? Why not say "Guardian, that's nice, but I think Oman should be the lynch if not you." Why vote with me? And you say you need convincing about Matt_S from me -- what do you think of my case? Have you, at least, read through his posts as I've asked?

I want a crosskill to occur tonight. I want to lynch scum today. I believe that supporting Guardian makes both more likely.

[Oman]

vote Xyl

Adel, i don't see how lynching guardian makes a crosskill more likely.

[Adel]

that is exactly why I want to lynch you instead.

[Oman]

Oh so by "supporting" guardian you mean....right!

[Erg0]

I'm going to push for the Adel lynch first because I feel like she could easily slip away following a Guardian^2 lynch regardless of how it turned out.

Dude, paraphrasing others' stupid points is

my

schtick.

In other news, I still want to lynch Guardian. Things are getting busy at work so I won't be able to post during the day for a little while, but fortunately I'd only be repeating myself anyway.

[Jitsu]

First, I'll respond to Guardian^2's initial defense.

I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.

You could not possibly have read the meta before you said this. I spent some of yesterday reading some meta on ChaosOmega. I looked ad three of his most recent completed games. In Newbie 532, a Pie E7 game, ChaosOmega is the

cop

and his effort and activity in that game is noticably more active in that game than he has been in many others. However, in Mini 519: Clerks, and Theme 526 - M.A.D. Mafia he was scum and did some serious lurking. Three games by itself is still a small sample size and I hate to draw conclusions just from that. One thing that's clear to me is that the meta here definitely does

not

help your case.

Then there is the subject of the manner in which he claimed. Really, I can't fault him for that. Checking in and claiming seems like a reasonable thing to do, as was not claiming until the last possible moment. Until a couple of hours before deadline, it seemed that he would not have to claim -- and no one, especially power roles, should claim unless they have to. I don't think that is a legitimate reason to find me suspicious. I myself, as a Watcher, tried hard not to claim, and made sure I was on near deadline in case I'd have had to.

I went back to reread how the lynch and claim went down. ChaosOmega waited until he was sure he'd be lynched, which was shortly after Guardian voted for him 20 minutes before deadline in 691. I think that's mostly a null tell. Neither cop nor scum want to claim before it's necessary, but I find it odd that ChaosOmega specifically mentioned in 696 that he should have come on earlier to claim. I have a slightly harder time believing that he didn't care enough as a cop to get on just a bit earlier. And given that his life was spared, I find it really odd that he didn't apologize, thank the town for sparing him, or somehow vow to be more active and help the town on Day 2. If I played awful as a power role on Day 2, I would be doing whatever I could to make amends Day 2.

As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.

Who asked you about why he left and needed replacement? Who said his exit was suspicious? Who is assuming that he left because he was being attacked? Nobody said it in this thread, at least. The fact that you are bringing this up makes me think you might have a guilty conscience.

But, now that you bring it up, I checked up on this. ChaosOmega's last post in this game was 726, on Tue Mar 4. He was prodded Fri Mar 7 and replaced Mon Mar 10. ChaosOmega posted five times to MafiaScum between his prod and when he was replaced. Clearly, his reason for not posting here was not because he was away. I don't know what role he has in his other current games, but if I were a cop that nearly got lynched on Day 1 and already had

three

votes on me Day 2, I would not be posting in other games while ignoring this one.

Lastly, in terms of the plausibility of my role... well I find it fairly implausible, and I'm not going to lie about that. If I didn't get the PM from vollkan, I'd still be very, very skeptical of it myself. I hope my town-ness shines through and/or I convince you there are better options. All I can say is that I am a cop, and that a major benefit of leaving me around is that I'm a power role that won't likely be night killed; if I am insane (guilty=innocent, and vice versa), I might be useful just yet.

Oh, and why won't you likely be NKed? Even if you are damaged goods at this point, if you really are a cop like you claim, you could still be useful to the town, and that in itself is enough of a reason for someone to off you.

Anyways, try not to lynch me before I get a chance to re-read.
Don't let someone get by with hammering me before I do.

This sounds to me like you are already trying to throw suspicion on whomever would hammer you. The hammer vote almost always carries suspicion with it even if it's for hammering scum. I can't help but wonder why you felt the need to remind people of that.

More to come.[/url]

[Guardian]

I'm not sure what I can say about C_O posting infrequently and without much substance. Those are just scummy things to do, and I can't defend them. However, someone posited that that was consistent with his scum meta -- is it inconsitent with his town meta? He might just always be a scummy lurker.

You could not possibly have read the meta before you said this.

Nope -- why would I have? I don't need to determine ym own alignment.

I went back to reread how the lynch and claim went down. ChaosOmega waited until he was sure he'd be lynched, which was shortly after Guardian voted for him 20 minutes before deadline in 691. I think that's mostly a null tell. Neither cop nor scum want to claim before it's necessary, but I find it odd that ChaosOmega specifically mentioned in 696 that he should have come on earlier to claim. I have a slightly harder time believing that he didn't care enough as a cop to get on just a bit earlier.

Oh, come on now. "He didn't care enough?" Getting on 10 minutes earlier or later is a sign of caring?

And given that his life was spared, I find it really odd that he didn't apologize, thank the town for sparing him, or somehow vow to be more active and help the town on Day 2.

I find this odd too, he's placed me in a pretty insurmountable position.

If I played awful as a power role on Day 2, I would be doing whatever I could to make amends Day 2.

Day 1, then day 2, you mean? That's great that you would do it, Mr. upstanding community member . C_O, otoh...

As for why he left the game and needed replacement -- I don't know the answer. I think the mod said the timer on his prod expired, right? His being replaced might have little to do with the in game situation, considering that. I don't think it is fair to assume that he left because he was being attacked. Even if he left because he was being attacked, I've seen players do that as town before. I don't think his exit is nearly as suspicious as his play day 1.

Who asked you about why he left and needed replacement? Who said his exit was suspicious? Who is assuming that he left because he was being attacked? Nobody said it in this thread, at least.

First of all, Oman did say something, in 907. Second of all, it was an obvious thing that would be brought up as an extension of a suspicion of his lurking.

The fact that you are bringing this up makes me think you might have a guilty conscience.

=\ it makes me think I'm a rationally thinking being who wants to defend myself from attacks before they snowball.

But, now that you bring it up, I checked up on this. ChaosOmega's last post in this game was 726, on Tue Mar 4. He was prodded Fri Mar 7 and replaced Mon Mar 10. ChaosOmega posted five times to MafiaScum between his prod and when he was replaced. Clearly, his reason for not posting here was not because he was away. I don't know what role he has in his other current games, but if I were a cop that nearly got lynched on Day 1 and already had

three

votes on me Day 2, I would not be posting in other games while ignoring this one.

Again, frowny face at C_O. I can't defend that action.

Lastly, in terms of the plausibility of my role... well I find it fairly implausible, and I'm not going to lie about that. If I didn't get the PM from vollkan, I'd still be very, very skeptical of it myself. I hope my town-ness shines through and/or I convince you there are better options. All I can say is that I am a cop, and that a major benefit of leaving me around is that I'm a power role that won't likely be night killed; if I am insane (guilty=innocent, and vice versa), I might be useful just yet.

Oh, and why won't you likely be NKed? Even if you are damaged goods at this point, if you really are a cop like you claim, you could still be useful to the town, and that in itself is enough of a reason for someone to off you.

There is no way any anti-town group in their right mind would kill me tonight if I am not lynched, and you know that. It is far too easy an argument "Why are you still alive Guardian? Oh, and your second result is X? SCUM." Why are you even making this argument. Jitsu?

Anyways, try not to lynch me before I get a chance to re-read.
Don't let someone get by with hammering me before I do.

This sounds to me like you are already trying to throw suspicion on whomever would hammer you. The hammer vote almost always carries suspicion with it even if it's for hammering scum. I can't help but wonder why you felt the need to remind people of that.

Because with the current level of suspicion on me, someone might explain away tomorrow "oh, but gosh, C_O was so scummy, I just had to hammer" and that might ahve been accepted. I did not want that to happen.

[Adel]

I thought that sharing this pdf with y'all may illuminate some things.

[Guardian]

Adel, what the hell do you mean? Do you want us to apply Occam's razor in some way? Do you really expect us to read anything more than the title of that PDF?

[Erg0]

Near as I can tell, that PDF takes 8 pages to tell us that shorter is better.

[Patrick]

Guardian, you seemed pretty suspicious of Erg0 yesterday, but your response to him today suggests you think he's protown. What caused that change of heart?

Incognito, what do you think of Xlythixlm?

[Oman]

Near as I can tell, that PDF takes 8 pages to tell us that shorter is better.

How ironic.

Near as I can tell that is quite irrelevant to this discussion. I'd be asking Adel why she's trying to distract the town.

[Matt_S]

Why does it seem more plausible? Adel's admittedly picked a townie at random and railroaded them to a lynch. That is more plausibly town than a non-sane cop?

I repeat:

Why vote Adel and then immediately vote me?

Also, your thoughts on Oman?

I voted Adel because she confused me with the "who's a lynch candidate" thing, initially because I misread it, then I kept it because she was still voting for me despite me not being a lynch candidate. Then I switched my vote to you because of what I said earlier: I thought Adel had some crazy plan, and I feared a runaway wagon, so I went with the more probable scum. I find you being scum more likely than ChaosOmega being a nonsane cop given the meta that Jitsu has posted about.

And Oman seems to have been going down hill after Adel revealed that Day 1's lynch was a sham. I'm tempted to believe that they aren't scum together because of the way stuff's happened regarding that.

[Incognito]

Incognito, what do you think of Xlythixlm?

It's funny that you ask me about him because he's somebody I was planning on covering very soon. Now that you've asked though, I'll provide some analysis of him.

Xylthixlm has read as somewhat of a mystery to me. I think there were a few noteworthy things about his play:

• 1) His early spat with TrustGossip (your predecessor) was really strange. I still don't even understand the meaning of it. I've read through it a number of times, and I still don't understand what they were even going back and forth about. It just seemed completely out of context from everything else that was going on at the time and it seemed like it wasn't receiving any attention from anyone else either. If it wasn't for the fact that you (someone I've been reading as fairly pro-town) had replaced TrustGossip shortly after, I might have chalked it up as some pseudo-argument between two scum partners.
  
  2) After removing his TrustGossip vote and removing his Matt_S vote, he places his vote on opie because nobody saw what he saw about Matt_S, but I don't remember him really going out on a limb to sell his case to anyone either. Then he claims he's voting Guardian in an effort to prevent him from being lynched because he had a "neutral to scummy read" on opie but a pro-town read on Guardian. What bothers me is his removal of his vote on opie and quick switch to ChaosOmega after citing that he agreed with my view about opie's very last post. I never found opie to be scummy to begin with so naturally it would make sense for me to read his last post before death as that of a defeated townie but for someone who had a "neutral to scummy read" on opie and who thought starting a ChaosOmega-lurker wagon was cutting too close to deadline, this shift in votes makes me rather uneasy. It's the same thing that made me believe Guardian was even more obvscum than ever (although I was wrong about him =/).
  
  3) Something else bothers me about Xylthixlm. I'm actually shocked that nobody called me out about this apparent contradiction. Previously I mentioned the following:
  

  The case against Adel has intrigued me, and I've certainly been thinking about the possibility of her being scum more closely. I don't think she's today's lynch though.
  
  Oman or Guardian^2 is today's lynch.

  but about two posts later I placed a vote on Adel over something that was actually rather trivial. I did this for a few reasons:
  
  a) A number of people seemed to criticize Adel for her actions (particularly Xylthixlm during Day 2) but prior to my vote, Adel had yet to receive a serious vote
  for the whole game
  .
  
  b) I wanted to gauge reactions. The reactions I received were interesting: Matt_S followed suit out of nowhere with a vote on Adel and then probably more importantly
  Xylthixlm (a person who was giving Adel flak for most of Day 2) finally decided to place a vote on Adel as well!
  Why did he wait so long? Why did he have to wait until after two people voted to finally place a vote on a person he had such strong feelings against?

In short, I think Oman and Guardian^2 are scum. The scum partner of one of these two is a little less obvious but judging from some of Xylthixlm's reactions, I could see him being a possibility. And tbh, Matt_S's vote on Adel taints him a bit too. I might need to do another reread of him to see if I still receive the same feelings about him.

[Patrick]

Looking over Guardian's suspicions, his case against Matt_S is similar to alot of the reasons I suspected Matt for when I entered the game. As I've settled into the game more I've found myself being less suspicious of him, though I'm not sure if that's because of any improvement in his play or just because I've been seeing a whole lot more scummy behaviour from several other players. I don't find him nearly as suspicious as a whole bunch of other people. I agree with Guardian's case against Oman, and it's similar to alot of stuff I've said already about him. And Adel, I don't know what to think. She's been confusing me all game, and just as I think I've almost made sense of what she's doing, she goes and does or says something that makes no sense to me again. She's 4th on my list at the moment.

I think the lynch today really should be either Guardian or Oman. I haven't found Guardian himself to be particularly scummy, but nor has he done much to change my mind about ChaosOmega. I've been set a few times to say that I'm only willing to lynch him today, but then I keep looking at Oman's posts and they're so damn scummy. I'm struggling to see why a protown player would act as Oman has. Erg0, you're an Oman expert. Have you seen him playing anything like this as town before? Could he be this bad as town? Right now he strongly reminds me of last time we met, and that's not good news.

It has to be one of those two IMO. I could see Xlythixlm as scum with either or both of them, but I think there's less evidence against him. I'll try and decide which one to go for soon, but that's where I am right now.