Thespival Mafia (Denouement)

[Beep! Beep!]

At last, a breakthrough!

Amen, and I mean it!

I looked through CKD's posts to see if he might have been a vig. If he was a vig, he would have shot me down, not Pooky. Pooky was killed by scum.

vote: CKD

[curiouskarmadog]

tracked CKD

what exactly did you do, track pooky or track me?

all you have is two words and you can even get those straight...nice slip up fake claim

vote Has,

nice try, interesting how you claim when people want you to break your PR to get information, yet you stick to your two words when you want us to believe you have tracked or watched someone (still not sure which)...

We must be a lylo if you think anyone (besides beep is going to believe you)...anyone find it interesting that Has's claim lead to farside's lynch yesterday....Anyone else find it interesting that he claimed he vigged Sarc, then tried to fall back (yesterday) on a double kill to cover his scumminess today.....you broke your PR once before..I think it is time to break it again.

[curiouskarmadog]

tracked :arrow: Pooky

Tracked or watched?

tracked CKD

Also

FoS Beep

for coaching Has through his claim…

Break through indeed.

[Beep! Beep!]

you broke your PR once before..I think it is time to break it again.

NO. He'll have to make do with two words. No way we're going to waste a power role. Amen!

[curiouskarmadog]

Beep you want us to believe that you believe Has, even though he has done nothing pro-town all game, helped lynch farside (like you), and then screwed up his claim (which you had to help him through)?

[hasdgfas]

claim fits.

[mathcam]

PJ: I'm not fond of assignments in general, and I don't see much of a reason to oblige you in your requests. For the purposes of choosing night-kills and lynch targets, it's rather advantageous for scum to know how every person feels about every other person. If I have thoughts that are relevant to the current situation, or I think are valuable and would be wasted if I were to be night-killed, rest assured I will reveal them. In fact, that whole post reeks of scum trying to get a feel for who's likely to make a good lynch target for the day -- doubly so since you had started to come under pressure yesterday.

FOS: PJ

for that.

Finally, while I'm not sure what I make of the CKD/Has situation yet, I think it was clear that has' posts mean:

1) I followed someone to Pooky.
2) The person I followed was CKD.

Unless someone has Thesp-specific info about tracker roles, it sounds likely to me that he has a variant of the tracker/watcher role, and it was just easier to describe it as "tracker" than "watcher." I have a hard time believing that Has was dumb enough to mess up a faked night choice in only two posts. Surely a scum Has who had been planning this all night would have thought pretty carefully about such a plan.

And while I don't share Beep's devout confidence in has' pro-townedness, I agree that he should stick to his post restriction if possible. I'm not sure exactly what he could say in 100 words that would be

so

much more convincing than what he could in say in bursts of two words that would be worth the chance of sacrificing one of our remaining (and possibly the best) pro-town night abilities.

Cam

[Iammars]

I think the arrow means that he tracked CKD to Pooky. Creative use of teh smilie with two words.

I'll post my MoS stuff when I have time. That won't be right now for sure.

[mathcam]

Okay, I've been scouring over this has/CKD interchange for the past hour, and I've reached a conclusion: I think CKD is scum.

My argument: First, I think CKD definitely did target Pooky last night, based on this line:

what exactly did you do, track pooky or track me?

I don't think he would have phrased it in this way if he hadn't targeted Pooky at all. Also, and perhaps more important, is that he has not yet denied it.

Second, while it's possible he targeted Pooky with a pro-town role (I had him down in my notes as a possible RB earlier this game), I don't think this is the case either: Why would he attack Has based on Has' revelation if CKD had used a pro-town power on Pooky? He could have just said "Yeah, that was me. I used X on Pooky," and would have had no reason to insist that Has was scum. On the other hand, if CKD were scum, he could have seen his only option to be to attack Has and his result, implying that he thought his only defense was to claim he wasn't there at all. And if I were scum in CKD's position, I'd certainly try to help my buddies out by convincing Has to lose his night ability for the following night before I went. CKD did exactly this in post 1501.

Finally, I (ironically enough) agree with a point CKD made: Has has been holding his own the last couple of days, and so I don't think he'd sacrifice him standing to get ckd lynched unless we were in LYLO. The thing is, I don't think we are: While things are certainly bleak, there are almost certainly 2 scum groups left. Even if there were 3 in each one, we're a long way from LYLO (though admittedly we're also a long way from winning). In fact, the only reasonable setup I can see in which lynching CKD ends the game immediately is if there is 6 scum, divided as 5/1 between the two groups and where CKD is the group of one and the mafia

happened

to guess that CKD was the SK so they would know to pick him out today -- this is a miniscule risk that I'd be willing to take.

I'm feeling pretty good about this one.

Vote: CKD.

Cam

[mathcam]

p.s. Amen!

[petroleumjelly]

In fact, that whole post reeks of scum trying to get a feel for who's likely to make a good lynch target for the day -- doubly so since you had started to come under pressure yesterday. FOS: PJ for that.

Does it really? That's funny. Let's take a look at the consistency of that thought process:

A.)

Do you think I was trying "get a feel for who would make a good lynch target" while I was attacking three players as a solidified scum group as "lynch-targets"?

B.)

I am interested. You say that if Has were scum, he would have 'thought out his plan' more so his claim would have been smoother. Do you think

I

would have thought out my "plan"? If so, why did I then need to split my questions into multiple posts?

C.)

Do you

really

think I was coming "under pressure" yesterday? That's funny because I feel just the opposite. I seem to only remember the players I already suspected (Beep! Beep! and Pooky) voting for me. Having people I think are

scum

vote for me does nothing to make me feel threatened. I only feel pressured if somebody I think is

town

votes for me, because those are the votes which are necessary for me to actually be lynched.

~~~~~

Other questions for mathcam:

1.)

Why do you feel there are two scum-groups left? How many scum per group do you think there are? Do you think they are two separate mafias? A mafia group and a werewolf group? What are the factions?

2.)

I don't see much of a reason for you

not

to oblige to my request. Your commentary on the game has been lacking in general (partly because you are a fairly recent replacement, no doubt). But as it happens, I have not really gotten a read on either MeMe or you; the best way for me to do that is to have you actually do some analzying. You seem to discard the

advantages

of having people actually post

substance

while only focusing on the possible disadvantages.

~~~~~

I'll have to read the CKD / has exchange again.

[petroleumjelly]

Also FoS Beep for coaching Has through his claim…

This is a bad FoS. If I had been present, I also would have asked for clarification. It's a natural thing to do, and it's likely hasdgfas would have clarified himself regardless of who happened to be present to ask him questions along a similar vein.

[petroleumjelly]

I can definitely see CKD as scum; and it certainly is not inconsistent with being scum

with

Beep! Beep! They have each called each other the Jester, and essentially avoided commenting on each other in detail by falling back on this. If CKD is scum going down and he knows it, FoS's are useless except for distancing purposes (which would explain why his FoS was so bad; he himself has asked hasdgfas clarification questions as well about his claim in general).

A vote is very much not necessary at the moment. We have three weeks, I propose we actually use them.

I would like to point out that Beep! Beep! has not clarified how she got her scum scores until after the Jester has died. As I stated earlier, I think this is because she was trying to portray herself as a Jester early in the game; now that it's no longer possible, she is trying to appear more reasonable.

[Mr_Gnome_It_All]

Mr_Gnome_It_All

Explain your position on Beep! Beep!, then analyze MeMe/mathcam.

My position on Beep! Beep! is that she's scum. I'm afraid I can't actually explain it, though, as I have no actual basis for this position. It's nothing more than a random hunch. (though at this point in the game, random probably has close to, if not more than, a 50/50 shot of hitting scum)

As for MeMecam, I've read through all of their posts, and I honestly don't see anything scummy about them. However, I am horrible at analyzing posts for such things, due to the unfortunate curse of being able to see most arguments from both sides.

[mathcam]

PJ:

A) Okay, fair point.
B) There's a difference between the sort of strategical plans you could make during the day in order to extract information from other people (which I was accusing you of) and the sort of tactical plans (direct revealing of previously hidden information) which I was talking about with respect to has. If you're familiar with it, I liken it to the difference between strategy and tactics in chess. In any case, the latter requires a significant amount of case-checking to make sure the tactics are sound, and so I would expect as much from any reasonable player. This is less true of the former.
C) I think it's a little more subtle then you make it out to be -- it's not like you

know

them to be scum, or else you'd provide a watertight argument to us and we would lynch them. For that matter, you don't

know

most/all of us to be pro-town, so it's not like you can just decide whom to feel pressure from and whom not to. That said, I think your first point renders this argument moot.

1 (D?)) There have been respectively 2, 3, and 2 night kills. Even if we presume Farside was right about her quackness, that leaves a second kill on nights 2 and 3. To me, it's more reasonable to assume a doc-protect/role-block/double kill/whatever on night 1 than it is to assume we have a pro-town killer (in

addition

to Farside). I also think that nearly every game of this size I've played in has has at least that many scum groups.

2/E) Funny, I don't think my commentary on the game has been very lacking at all. I came in with 2 fairly detailed posts, have been posting fairly regularly since then and, if you ask me, I just nailed CKD, barring some gaping hole in my logic or stellar defense from CKD. Second, I gave you the reason! I'm certainly pro-analysis and fully see the merits of having people post substance -- for you to suggest otherwise is pretty uncharacteristically word-twisty from what I've seen of your play so far. You usually don't seem to go in for those cheap shots. What I

did

suggest is that it's not clear to me that there's much positive benefit in allowing one player to hand out assignments -- if the town needs this information, it will come out in the natural course of discussion, or it can be forced out at that point in the game. If it doesn't need the information, then the questions serve only as a distraction, allowing, for example, MGIA's last post in which he answers your question but ignores the (to me) more pressing issue of has and CKD.

Cam

[mathcam]

Oops, forgot some stuff:

Rest of response to 1)

How many scum per group do you think there are?

I have no idea -- I could give you a list of distributions I would find reasonable for a size of this game, but I'd have no guarantee that Thesp would have the same definition of reasonable as I do, nor would I have the extra information of exactly what pro-town roles (and/or anti-town roles) are out there to balanced the sizes.

But while I'm at it, this is a good example of the point I was trying to make earlier -- is it really beneficial to the town to know what mathcam thinks the size and shape of the scum groups to be? Or would it be more advantageous for scum to have this information from various townies so they know which arguments will work best come the endgame? To me, it seems like the latter, as I'd be impressed if you could determine whether or not I was scum by my response to that question, since if I were scum my automatic response would be to think about what my answer would be if I were a townie.

Do you think they are two separate mafias? A mafia group and a werewolf group? What are the factions?

Wouldn't two mafia have to be separate by the definition of the number two? (Sorry, that it was a bit snarky, but it was too funny to delete). But does it matter? In short, I don't know, and I would guess that people at Thespival would know better than I.

Cam

[Mr_Gnome_It_All]

Apologies for double post, but there was more I meant to say but forgot while I was typing what came before it...

The following does, however, occur to me about ckd:

A) He accuses hasdgfas' claim leading to farside's lynch, but looking back, I see no place where has claims to have any actual proof. It looks more like an opinion of scum, but being restricted to two words means he can't give much more than what he said yesterday.

B) He fos' beep for "guiding" has through his claim, like he would have prefered it to stay open for some sort of interpretation he could weasel out of (though I was able to make out what has meant in the first place)

C) Telling has to break his pr, well, I think it's pretty much been said by cam and pj.

I'm more inclined to believe that has' restriction would be for a protown power role, rather than scum. Which leads me to belive what he says, and that ckd targeted pooky last night. And believing that, when ckd went straight for the "fake-claim" accusation rather than trying to say something more rational, that solidified my opinion of him.

With all that, I definitely belive ckd is scum.

[Mr_Gnome_It_All]

oops, wasn't a double post...

(but I guess this is)

[petroleumjelly]

Responses to mathcam

1.)

Fine, I can see the difference between tactics and 'strategery' in this context.

2.)

From my point of view, there is no subtlety about it; I accuse a group of players of being scum, and in turn I am voted solely by players within that set. The only thing I feel like I got was a 'backlash', which is something to be fully expected and has happened often enough in the past. I feel no pressure from such situations unless people

outside

of that group (i.e. people I think who are more likely to be town) also vote for me or express substantive suspicion of me.

3.)

There is actually a perfectly good reason why I asked you to talk about the scum-groups. An example of why can be found if you would like to read Dry, Bland Mafia. In that game, I was part of a mafia group of 2 players - this led me to believe that there was also another mafia group of 2 players. This, in turn, affected how I played and how I posted; most tangibly, I left open the possibility for "two mafia groups"

way

more in my posts than I would have if I had been town. If I were town, I almost assuredly would have played under the assumption of "3 mafia, 1 SK". My questioning you about this was to determine if you would do anything similar (such as speculate two small groups, or one large scum group, or bringing up a win condition not contained in the first post) which might indicate you had more information than the average player.

As it happens, I do think ‘two mafias’ is unlikely, unless Thesp altered the win conditions for each mafia. I can’t really even imagine how that would have been run at Thespival. As soon as you ask for “all mafia to open their eyes” you are going to have some problems. And given the lack of other win conditions on the front post, I am actually inclined to think we

do

have a Vig who did not kill on Night One. The fact that I asked you if that was what you thought is related to the above; if you were part of a small mafia group, you may very well be inclined to believe in the presence of another small mafia group (especially given the lack of other win conditions on the front post).

4.)

Your post struck me as a justification for you

not

to analyze particular players. Although you have indeed posted content, that does not change the fact that I have not yet formulated a read on either MeMe or you, which means you have not posted

enough

for my liking. I will point out that you are certainly not the only player who falls in this category.

5.)

I disagree that the town will “work things out” in time. We’ve mislynched three days in a row, and I don’t know about you, but that makes me feel (a) depressed, and (b) angry. I decided overnight that if I survived, I was damned well going to get people to talk more, because I am tired of feeling like I have zero read on half of the town, and the fact that I cannot even understand half of the "logic" that has been presented of late. I have been continually frustrated with the lack of effort in this game overall; we have lynched two ‘obvious’ people (Greasy Spot and Farside22) without many people giving well-thought-out in-game reflections on them, and one ‘last-minute’ person (Monkey). That is

not

what I call “working out”.

Recently, I have been trying to figure out what exactly is the difference between me losing games and winning games as town. I have definitely noticed that the games where I won as town were games where I literally

forced

players into posting (examples I have read most recently are my newbie games and Old Maid Mafia). The fact is I read players better when they post more and post more substantively. If I feel giving out assignments will achieve that end, then that is what I will do.

I also disagree that these questions are “distractions”. Every post in mafia can help pinpoint a scum (Captain Obvious to the rescue). The more you force scum to talk and fabricate reasons for ‘suspecting’ or ‘believing’ somebody, the more likely you are to catch them. Having players

directly

analyze others is not only information

immediately

, but it can also be infinitely informative

later

in the game if we lynch somebody who has done in-depth analyses on a number of players. Those posts can then be scrutinized, and by weighing the justifications they gave for their ‘beliefs’, you may be able to find other scum or possibly townspeople through extension.

Additionally, if somebody were to choose to answer my question over commenting on something interesting happening

right now

, that is just more information for you take into consideration, not less.

[Battle Mage]

Unvote, Vote: CKD

I can go with this today, but tomorrow we defo kill Beep Beep, k?

BM

[petroleumjelly]

Hi. We have three weeks. Why is everybody placing on second, third, etc votes? I would be freaking PO'd if we quicklynched today, even

if

CKD turns out to be scum.

[Battle Mage]

ill be back with more comments later dw. Though frankly i think we are pretty much done for today, as soon as everyone checks in.

BM

[petroleumjelly]

Stamps up and down

.

No, no,

no

, that is

exactly

the wrong attitude we need here. We have less than two pages of discussion, with some players not even posting, and "you think we are pretty much done for today"?!

Ugh. I'm going to bed. For the love of all that is good and holy, please stop voting. If you feel like voting for CKD, you can say so without actually

doing

it. The point comes across either way. (In fact, the only way it becomes skewed is if somebody relies on voting patterns way too much. And yes, this is a direct reference to Beep! Beep!).

In fact,

Unvote: Beep! Beep!

, even though I think I'm the only person voting for her at present.

[Beep! Beep!]

As for MeMecam, I've read through all of their posts, and I honestly don't see anything scummy about them. However, I am horrible at analyzing posts for such things, due to the unfortunate curse of being able to see most arguments from both sides.

Even I agree with you on that question; however, some players that may be clever that way, can still be caught by voting pattern.

[Beep! Beep!]

C) Telling has to break his pr, well, I think it's pretty much been said by cam and pj.

It should be pointed out that PJ preferred that hasdagas break his PR today, while mathcam and myself were adamant that hasdagas should not break his PR. Small detail.