Mini 550: KSFV: Game Over

[aioqwe]

twilight by my count, waiting on the mod then?

[thinktank]

Yea, its twilight. Rosso has been lynched, we're just waiting for the mod. The day is over.

[pete d]

Day 2 Final Vote Count

Rosso Carne (5): vIQleS, Battle Mage, SensFan, thinktank, Lloyd
SensFan (1): Rosso Carne
thinktank (1): aioqwe

Not Voting (1): Joubert

After taking stock of the situation, the remaining inhabitants of the casino reassume their focus onto finding out who is responsible for the spate of killings. Before long, the focus shifts onto Rosso Carne, with several people calling his previouisly stated identity into question. Rightly so, it appears, for as his body is hurled from the top floor, it bursts into a confetti of shimmering, golden straw.

Rosso Carne, Scarecrow Goon, lynched Day 2

It is now Night 2. Please send in all night choices before this Wednesday (that is, Thursday Aussie time).

[pete d]

After another troubling night's sleep, the remaining guests gather at the slot tables. After a quick head count, the guests realise that somebody is missing from yesterday. You search Lloyd's room, but cannot find any trace of him. Further searching reveals vast amounts of cash and casino chips. It appears that Lloyd was a very rich man indeed, but that couldn't help him one iota.

Lloyd, High Roller, Vanilla Townie, kicked out of the casino Night 2

It is now Day 3. With 6 alive, it will take 4 to lynch.

[aioqwe]

torn to pieces and scarecrows didn't kill tonight. Could we have 2 mafia, scarecrows and werewolves? 2 each and we've taken out one group? Or do we have 3 maf, an sk and both groups were blocked, doc'd? Or do we have something else? Reading back at stuff...

[thinktank]

It seems highly improbable that if there are indeed two groups that BOTH of them got blocked unless they targeted the same person because that would imply 2 doctor/night action blockers and both of them getting their protections right. It seems likely that there are two groups because a group of 2 mafia and an SK does not seem to warrant the amount of supposed power roles in this game ( a tracker, nervous cop, probably a vig and probably a doctor of some sort). There are most likely either 2 groups of mafia with 2 members each, or 2 groups AND an SK.

[Battle Mage]

yeh i see what thinktank is saying. I'm thinking that based on last nights events, we may just have the SK left. But with so many powerroles i'm not sure...
Anyway, now Rosso is dead, i think its time i reread the whole game. If we have a 3rd scarecrow, we should now have enough info to find it

BM

[vIQleS]

So, at last we can put the cult idea to rest, and we're left with:

0 scum, 1 vig and 1 SK
OR
1 scum, 1 vig and 1 SK

Or maybe the above + another 2 person scum group? (less likely)

We have a blocking / protection role, maybe two (or one of each etc)...

I have a theory as to who might be lynch today, which I will share with everyone once I've done some rereading and we've had some input from everybody...

[vIQleS]

OMG i just noticed:

Got another interesting anagram with the same letters:

CNUSVRPEOO -> NERVOUS COP

He was a Nervous Cop. There may have been some info in his posts after all.

Nothing we can use though probably - as we started in day, he wouldn't have had a chance to investigate anyone yet...

[aioqwe]

I highly doubt there is anything in GS's posts simply because we started in day.

I think or possibilities lie:
1 vig + 1 SK + 1 Mafia (originally 3 maf)
1 vig + 2 maf + 0 maf (2 teams of 2 each)

Furthermore, I believe the first situation is more likely considering a investigation immune sk would be helpful with all of the cops, and 2 mafia goons + possible godfather would be approx. balanced for the roles we have. On that note, I doubt we would have uneven mafia teams and I doubt we would have a 4 man mafia group.

6 alive, might it be time for a mass claim or should we wait a day?

Gonna re-read some.

[SensFan]

I think we need to mass claim, since we could be in LyLo.

Assuming 1 Mafia 1 SK 1 Vig:

1/1/4 -> Lynch Town - 1/1/3 -> Double Nightkills on Town 1/1/1 (Town loses)

[thinktank]

This is hardly a LyLo. Even if we do accidentally lynch town tonight, we most likely have 1 -2 protection roles as well as the probability of there being a vig. Theres a very good probability that the town does not lose by tomorrow. A mass claim is not viable, and is not at all necessary especially considering we don't know possibly two protection roles. A Mass claim should only be done in worst case scenario because it generally backfires on the town..

FoS: SensFan

We're quite far away from a LyLo and pushing for a massclaim is a terrible move.

[SensFan]

Did you

SEE

the math I posted above?

[thinktank]

I think we need to mass claim, since we could be in LyLo.

Assuming 1 Mafia 1 SK 1 Vig:

1/1/4 -> Lynch Town - 1/1/3 -> Double Nightkills on Town 1/1/1 (Town loses)

Yes, I see the math, but the assumptions you've made make the case seem like what its not. Firstly, you're completing skipping out on the possibility of a role protector and what you've given is a worse case scenario. You're pushing for a massclaim because you believe we could be in a LyLO. a LyLo is Lynch or Lose, which means if the town does not kill scum that day its an auto lose for town no matter what, NOT based on just a somewhat likely worst case scenario. You've completely ignored the fact that if there are 3 pro-townies going into the night then it is probable that someone will be saved not to mention the probability of a cross kill between the SK and the mafia, nor the prbabiltiy that both target the same person and a protector blocks the kill. We are not in a Lylo by any means and pushing that only causes unneccessary chaos among the town, not to mention how much chaos would be caused by an unwarranted massclaim. This is NOT a LyLo.

[SensFan]

If we lynch incorrectly today, it is possible that the Town will lose overnight. Therefore, the Town must lynch correctly today, lest we leave the game in the hands of the scum.

[Battle Mage]

This is hardly a LyLo.

Even if we do accidentally lynch town tonight

, we most likely have 1 -2 protection roles as well as the probability of there being a vig. Theres a very good probability that the town does not lose by tomorrow. A mass claim is not viable, and is not at all necessary especially considering we don't know possibly two protection roles. A Mass claim should only be done in worst case scenario because it generally backfires on the town..

FoS: SensFan

We're quite far away from a LyLo and pushing for a massclaim is a terrible move.

A mass claim is only a good idea if we have more than 1 scumbag left, which is doubtful at this point.
On the other hand, the part highlighted in red bothers me slightly.
What self respecting townie considers killing people at night? Let alone lynching them?

FoS: Thinktank

On the flipside, a mass claim could break this game open, if past experience is anything to go by.

Thoughts?

BM

[Joubert]

Mah, I don't think it's hardly significant, Town can't

lynch

during the Night, it's probably a mistake on terminology. ThinkTank probably meant lynching at the end of the current day...

Now, if there's a Vig (and considering the forces against the Town, it's very likely), what information can he use to kill successfully next Night? It's easy to target someone (only because you can) and kill a Townie. It must be something more than gambling. Keep the gambling for the Poker tables...

And there's this quote from aioqwe:

torn to pieces and scarecrows didn't kill tonight. Could we have 2 mafia, scarecrows and werewolves? 2 each and we've taken out one group? Or do we have 3 maf, an sk and both groups were blocked, doc'd? Or do we have something else? Reading back at stuff...

Why do you say "torn to pieces" when the narration says "kicked out of the casino"?

[aioqwe]

5. ryan, Cocktail Waitress, Vanilla Townie, modkilled day 1

6. armlx, Surveillance System, Tracker,

stuffed full of straw Night 1

4. Unity, Scarecrow Goon,

torn to pieces Night 1

2. Greasy Spot, Undercover FBI Agent, Nervous Cop, kicked out of the casino Night 1

3. Rosso Carne, Scarecrow Goon, lynched Day 2

12. Lloyd, High Roller, Vanilla Townie, kicked out of the casino Night 2

Notice the kills present Night 1 (in bold) that aren't present night 2. Kicked out of the casino was present both nights.

[Joubert]

Ah okay... I thought you were referring only to the last events. So basically, we have seen 4 types of deaths... Here are my guesses:

Stuffed full of straw -> Mafia kill...
Torn to pieces -> Serial Killer kill...
Lynched -> Town kill...
Kicked out of the casino -> Vig kill...

If this is correct, it would mean the SK and Mafia couldn't kill during Night 2. Either the target was protected, or the killer was blocked. With all these power roles, the possibility of 2 anti-Town factions is not likely at all. Unless we consider Serial Killer a "faction", which I don't...

[aioqwe]

SK an anti-town "faction" imo. He's not with mafia, and he wants the town dead. Thus, he's a faction. Furthermore, Thinktank, we SHOULD be prepared for the worst case scenario. If we are at least conscious of the worst case scenario then we at least have a clue as how to act in that scenario, as oposed to running around thinking it's okay to lynch/vig who ever and end up with a major loss.

FOS: Thinktank.

[Battle Mage]

Mah, I don't think it's hardly significant, Town can't

lynch

during the Night, it's probably a mistake on terminology. ThinkTank probably meant lynching at the end of the current day...

Now, if there's a Vig (and considering the forces against the Town, it's very likely), what information can he use to kill successfully next Night? It's easy to target someone (only because you can) and kill a Townie. It must be something more than gambling. Keep the gambling for the Poker tables...

And there's this quote from aioqwe:

torn to pieces and scarecrows didn't kill tonight. Could we have 2 mafia, scarecrows and werewolves? 2 each and we've taken out one group? Or do we have 3 maf, an sk and both groups were blocked, doc'd? Or do we have something else? Reading back at stuff...

Why do you say "torn to pieces" when the narration says "kicked out of the casino"?

you answered ur own question. 'torn to pieces' didnt kill, hence it wasnt in the narration. Obviously the Vig on the other hand, did.

I dont understand post 543 atall.

I agree with Aioqwe in all except vote. I dont understand that either. 0.o

[thinktank]

The reason why I'm emphasizing that its a worst case scenario is because I don't want a mass claim because mass claims should only be utilized in a worst case scenario, its fine to be prepared for a worst case scenario but we aren't in a LyLo or a known worst case scenario so theres no reason for a massclaim. Thats all that I was stating. Ofcourse we don't want to lynch pro-town players but thats true in ALL scenarios not just a worst case.

[aioqwe]

@BM: what vote? 543 was rather pointless as it stated the obvious.

Worst case scenario is that this is our last day. Thus, it may be wise to act as though we are at lylo. Yes, we can rely on luck, however, I would rather not...

[SensFan]

thinktank, there is a possibility that the Town will wake up tomorrow morning having lost. Why do you refuse to call this LyLo?

[aioqwe]

It's not necessarily lylo per say because we can lynch inncorrectly, have all kills blocked or something to that nature and still win.

Also, we have had 2 cops pop up. I dunno too much about vegas but do you think we may be playing a cop heavy variant and a RBer of sorts?