I'm feeling you on Jitsu's relative scumminess, Partick. I consider CO far and away the most probable scum, with Oman and then Jitsu following. I'm still going to push for the Oman lynch first because I feel like he could easily slip away following a CO lynch regardless of how it turned out.
So, lemme see if I understand everyone's suspicions.
Oman - He followed the opie wagon and seemed to not be scum hunting.
ChaosOmega - Not playing.
Jitsu - Possibly connected to ChaosOmega for not commenting on the case against him. I think there was more, about his day 1 behavior but I can't recall right now.
Adel - opie wagon all day, hopping on Guardian wagon.
Xylthixlm - Following the opie wagon, and other things I can't recall.
I'm tempted to think Adel is town at the moment, for a variety of WIFOM reasons, plus playing an active role. Of the others, I'd definitely rank ChaosOmega as most likely scum, followed by Oman and Xylthixlm. I'm also having a hard time grasping Jitsu being scum; I can see it but it doesn't seem to fit his actions.
As for the other players, Patrick is about as town as I've seen, and Incognito is iffy, depending mainly on how Oman turns out.
Adel, you played with Jitsu previously in Mini 518. Did you notice if he often spent a lot of time kinda hovering around the Little Italy forum in that game?
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
Incognito wrote:
Adel, you played with Jitsu previously in Mini 518. Did you notice if he often spent a lot of time kinda hovering around the Little Italy forum in that game?
no. I think I know where you are going with this, and I don't think it will work out for you.
No as in you haven't noticed or no as in he didn't do that?
Where am I going with this?
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
indicate that a person is actually online. I have firefox open mafiascum.net as one of a couple dozen tabs at application launch. With auto-login, my name shows up in the forums probably about 16 hours a day. Jistu could easily have been reading past games. There are probably a half-dozen other perfectly legitimate reasons you saw his name but not a post here. That is why I always look at
post frequency by game
. If he is active in other games but not here then you've identified both that the person is online
and
that the person has time to post.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... uthor=Adel
Links you to the first page of my post history. As a rule of thumb, if a player has made more than two pages of posts in other games then you know that player is really lurking. I can't lurk in any game I'm in for this reason. Sometimes I manipulate my rate of posts in several games at the same time to fuck with another player trying to get that kind of read on me.
While nobody's really made any real direct accusations against me, there are some things I'd like to comment on.
In terms of my general playstyle, I tend to check the thread often enough that I look like I'm logged in for a long time, but crafting my posts tasks awhile (I put a lot of thought into them) and I don't always have the time to respond even though I'm relatively caught up. I intentionally do not post unless I have something relatively important to say, as I prefer to keep a very high signal:noise ratio. I am only playing one game at a time because it takes a large amount of time and effort for me just to do that. I do not have the experience or enough free time to handle several games at once.
Before any big post, I'm usually rereading at least a few pages back to get perspective, and if I'm citing something specific, I'll go back to reread to be sure I remember things the way they really are. If not a lot is changing, I can stay relatively caught up and post more often. But if a lot of stuff starts changing really quickly, I get lost and need to reread to get things sorted out in my head. I got a bit lost early on Day 1, and again near the end when people were jumping on and off wagons at a high rate of speed. I always put the effort in to catch up, but I just couldn't do that fast enough at the end of Day 1. I'm sorry.
Regarding the end of Day 1: I am almost never on in the early evenings or weekend days my time, as that is the time I spend with my family (wife and 2 year old). After they go to bed, then I can get on and read. If I remember right, the deadline for D1 hit during early evening Friday night for me, but even so I still made an effort to come on and weigh in on my opinion because I care about this game.
Even if I had more time to consider things, I probably wouldn't have voted for ChaosOmega at the end of Day 1 anyway, simply because I was reluctant to lynch a claimed power role, regardless of how badly timed the claim was. However, I did (and still do) find him scummy for all the reasons I've said previously. So I left my vote on Guardian. Perhaps I should have explicitly stated that, but I wanted my vote on Guardian, so that's where I left it. I really did think he was scum, but I was wrong.
I'll finish up another post I started with a suspect list.
Adel: I've seen Adel play like this in my only previous game, so I agree with the assessment that Adel could do this either as town or as scum. Gambits and traps are a bit part of her playstyle, and she is not afraid to act scummy or get lynched to out the scum. I place a much higher value on winning this game than I do attacking her playstyle. Her playstyle this game is similar to our previous game where she was town, but I'm not going to clear her just because of that. Adel is smart enough and clever enough to pull off a wagon like that and then turn around and bus her buddies to look more innocent. However, that was a big risk for her to admit that the Opie wagon was crap -- she could have been lynched right then and there. And she has been lynched plenty of times before early in games for pulling tricks like this one. Second, I think she did let slip earlier on Day 1 that the Opie wagon was crap. Look at post 436, Adel's first reason. Guardian caught this in the next post, but Adel did not comment on it. Also, I think 456 was a deliberate attempt to feel me out and when I pressed her for reasons, I think she backed off so she didn't have to explain (presumably, that the Opie wagon was crap). So there may be something of a breadcrumb there. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she seems to be more chaotic -- jumping around a lot more with her votes and shifting her allegiences more then I've seen before. I've spent a lot of hours reading this game and trying to figure out what she's really thinking, but I think it's slowly driving me insane. I've wanted to do more reading on her as scum, but it's been difficult trying to to that and keep up with this game. I can see Adel either way at this point. Her willingness to name me as her third best subject raises my eyebrow a bit. Opinion: Neutral.
ChaosOmega: I've already stated why I didn't like him, and I agree that the chance of an Insane or Paranoid cop in the game with two other investigation roles is slim, at best. He hasn't seemed to care enough about the criticism against him today either. I agree that a claimed cop who nearly got lynched for lurking on Day 1 should not be lurking on Day 2. I'm still wondering where that summary is that he promised. Opinion: Likely scum.
Erg0: Still a possible suspect, but I'm not as concerned with him as I am the three above. He was right about Guardian and Opie and wasn't afraid to say so. I'm still undecided about him, but I keep thinking if he were mafia, far less people would be agreeing with his scum picks. My top suspects now are the same three he named yesterday, so I have to give him a few townie points for that. I need to read him more. Opinion: Neutral.
Incognito: He correctly avoided the Opie wagon and questioned the reasons behind it. He wasn't afraid to state his opinions and boldly criticized the Opie wagon for what it was. True, he was on the Guardian wagon pretty heavily, but I can't blame him for that because I thought Guardian was acting pretty scummy myself. I liked how he put the brakes on the CO lynch to allow more time to think -- a slight town tell in my opinion. He seems to be actually scumhunting, unlike a number of players. Opinion: Likely town.
Matt_S: An enigma. Early on D1, he seemed desparate to have something to say and made some really bad FoSes with horrible reasoning. I don't like his simplistic view of the game, which seems to be roughly categorizing people due to simple factors like how nice or aggressive they are. He looks like a newbie to me, either way. He's done a number of scummy things, but every once in a while, he surprises me with something that comments that sound seasoned and relatively well-reasoned. In spite of the inconsistency of his play, he had chances to jump on bad wagons or rush to conclusions against townies, and he did not. I can't tell if he is a scum playing it cool, or just a somewhat confused townie. Opinion: Neutral.
Oman: I agree with Patrick's and Incognito's earlier comments. Did anyone notice how I largely stayed away from Oman (and didn't lean on Adel too heavily either) after the first part of Day 1? There's a reason for that. I thought starting around the middle of D1 that Oman and Adel could have been masons. Oman jumped on Adel's Opie wagon without a lot of explanation and stayed on it all day. When we asked Adel why we thought Oman was town, her answer was a bit evasive, and I thought that could have been a mason tell. Also, when Adel made the comment about her and Oman drinking the same Kool-Aid in response to the wagon on me, that's when I really thought it were possible. Adel has now openly said he was scum, said that she needs Oman dead to survive herself, and
mentioned that she likes seeing him wiggle. Adel may be unconventional, but I don't think she would go after a Mason-brother like that. Since that was really the only thing stopping me from attacking Oman, the emergency brakes are off now. Opinion: Likely scum.
Patrick: His logic has been good, he has stayed away from Opie's wagon, with good reasons why. He seems to be considering all of the evidence well and seems to be making good judgments without jumping to conclusions. I don't have a lot to say about him, mainly because he has generally just not acted very scummy at all. I find in general that I agree with a lot of what hehas to say. Opinion: Likely town
Xyl: I agree with Patrick's comments on him. I mentioned late yesterday how I didn't like Xyl's play the latter half of Day 1, and his posts today have not made me feel any better about him. Part of me doesn't believe his "I wanted to save Guardian" reason for staying on Opie, but when I checked on it, his vote behavior is at least consistent with it. It still sounds a little funny though. I stated that I didn't like Xyl's "let's lynch CO when everyone checks in" post either. And I don't like how he is supporting Oman now. Opinion: Slightly scummy.
My top suspect is ChaosOmega right now, Oman is second, with Xylthixlm a more distant third. I'm not sure yet which lynch would give me the most information. I want to reflect on that.
Adel wrote:I'm still going to push for the Oman lynch first because I feel like he could easily slip away following a CO lynch regardless of how it turned out.
It sounds like you've thought about this might have a guess how Oman could slip away. Are you willing to share?
Oman wrote:So...you think CO and I are mutually exclusive scum now?
no.
if Co is scum then Oman may be scum
if CO is not scum then Oman may still be scum
if Oman is scum then Co may be scum
if Oman is not scum then CO may be scum
Oman wrote:So...you think CO and I are mutually exclusive scum now?
no.
if Co is scum then Oman may be scum
if CO is not scum then Oman may still be scum
if Oman is scum then Co may be scum
if Oman is not scum then CO may be scum
Ok, I have two parallel arguments to make here:
1. I disagree that there is a risk of Oman slipping away if CO is scum. If the town's first suspicion proves correct then it tends to reinforce the idea that the second suspicion is also correct, regardless of whether there is an actual link between the two. Hence, Oman is likely to be the next lynch choice if CO is scum.
2. I didn't go back and read your 850 when I wrote 860 - I was responding to Jitsu's post immediately above mine. Even so, what I said in post 860 is exactly the same as what you said in the quote above, just not spelled out as explicitly. Why did you think that I was assuming CO to be town, when I simply said that Oman's alignment wasn't tied to his?
"You were doing well until everyone died."
V/LA most weekends.
I stand by what I've said. The FoS is valid. You simplified my case down to what you all ready knew to be true: that CO is not scum. You wrote your post based off of that assumption.
Adel, could you explain how you think Oman could slip away? I think I know what you meant, and I
think
I know how you think it could possibly happen but I'd like to hear it from you first before saying.
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
Oman wrote:So...you think CO and I are mutually exclusive scum now?
P.S. For the record, I do think that you and CO are mutually exclusive (unlike the opie/Matt_S arguments brought up earlier in the day).
[ooc][color=black]patrickgower2006 (8:12:03 PM): all beer tastes same to me
patrickgower2006 (8:12:07 PM): like dish water
If you see Patrick drinking dish water, please try and stop him. Friends don't let friends drink dish water.[/color][/ooc]
