Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Incognito]

Reading is tech.

What exactly do you mean by that?

Guardian,

Watcher

, was shot Night 1

I'm assuming you're an SK.

======================================================

Votecount #29

ChaosOmega - 3 (Erg0, Adel, Incognito)

Not voting - 6 (Matt_S, Oman, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Patrick, Jitsu)

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.
Deadline for D2: Friday April 5, 11:30AM GMT+10
================================================

[ChaosOmega]

I read it. I'm curious why the mafia would kill Guardian, when I thought a lot of his play Day 1 was very suspicious. In terms of sanity, it means I'm either insane or paranoid.

[Incognito]

A sanity challenged cop in a mini-game?

[Erg0]

I doubt very much that you're paranoid, since that's still an information role (just reversed).

Overall, I'm unsurprised and unmoved - this is exactly the claimed result that I would expect from fakeclaiming scum in this situation. If you're an insane cop then you're

really

unlucky, because there's no way that I'm moving my vote based on that claim.

[Incognito]

In addition to what Erg0 said, why not just come out and say something like - "I got a guilty on Guardian but since he turned up town, obviously I'm sanity challenged"? When you say it after I called you out about it, it basically looks like you're backtracking.

[Xylthixlm]

Even I can figure out that ChaosOmega is probably scum here.

I say we wait for everyone to check in, then lynch him.

[Oman]

Vote ChoasOmega

I think we all know why.

[Incognito]

A little hasty there...

Unvote

Not yet.

[Erg0]

I think Jitsu's the only person we haven't heard from now.

[Oman]

Oh, damn. I was going to vote erg0.


Hmm...This disturbs me more, but if there is no other development, erg0 is next.

[Erg0]

I do so love it when being right is treated as a scumtell. It was especially nice of the scum to make a point of setting me up with their nightkill.

[Oman]

I don't look at nightkills for scumtells. Its too easier to WIFOM.

[Erg0]

Me neither (obviously), but I thought it was interesting that both of the players that I opposed lynching yesterday are now dead. Obviously opie was a communal decision, but I doubt that it was a coincidence that Guardian was killed last night (unless he was giving off power role tells that I missed).

[Adel]

I'm not liking the wifom noise that is comming from Erg0 right now.

[Incognito]

Me neither (obviously), but I thought it was interesting that both of the players that I opposed lynching yesterday are now dead. Obviously opie was a communal decision, but I doubt that it was a coincidence that Guardian was killed last night (unless he was giving off power role tells that I missed).

I don't understand why you feel this way, Erg0. It's not like you were the only one who was opposed to lynching Guardian yesterday. Why do you feel like this night-kill of Guardian was somehow used to set you and only you up?

[Jitsu]

Something's really wrong here, people.

We have three townies dead. If I'm reading the night scene correctly, the Mafia took out Guardian, and an SK took out PEG. Guardian was the "obvious" investigation target, since other than ChaosOmega (who would not investigate himself), and Opie, Guardian was the only one to get more than a couple of votes, I believe.

But here's the thing that bothers me most. Right after the day started and ChaosOmega declared Guardian guilty, ChaosOmega's wagon steamed off and put him at L-1 before Incognito unvoted. Day 2 is still only a few HOURS old (real time), and already we had someone get to L-1 with very little discussion?

NO! THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SCUM WANT!

In my opinion, we are focusing way too much on the cop claim right now. I suspect that Incognito is thinking the same thing I am -- the scum are trying to speedlynch ChaosOmega. This could be true regardless of CO's alignment. If CO is town, then the scum have a lynch without a lot suspicion. If CO is mafia, then they have cut loose their damaged goods and distanced themselves from a fakeclaim, while looking town in the process. If CO is the SK, well, then the mafia would have gotten rid of a threat they'd have needed to deal with eventually anyway. Regardless of the situation, a quicklynch would deprive the town of a lot of information. So a CO lynch is a win-win-win situation for the Mafia right now. That's why I want to put the brakes on it -- at least for now.

I'm not saying we shouldn't lynch ChaosOmega's today -- his claim is a little hard to believe at this point. But what's the hurry? He's not going anywhere, and we can always lynch him later today. If he really is the right play, then that should hold up after some significant discussion today. If he doesn't hold up, well, that tells us something too. I say we put ChaosOmega on the back burner for the moment and revisit him later today.

The other thing that ISN'T being discussed is the Opie wagon, which is something that we really should be talking about. Six people were on that wagon for a while at one point, keeping him at L-1 for some time. As far as I can see, seven of the players voted for Opie at some point after the random phase: Oman, ChaosOmega, PEG, Xylthixlm, Guardian, Adel, and Matt_S. Two of those players (Guardian, PEG) are now confirmed innocent (nothing is 100% in mafia, but this is probably as close to that as we can hope for). That leaves Oman, ChaosOmega, Xylthixlm, Adel, and Matt_S. The only people that did not vote for Opie after the random phase are Erg0, Patrick, Incognito, and myself. I'm still making up my mind about Erg0, but I feel that Patrick is probably town, and I'm leaning toward Incognito being town, especially after he unvoted to disrupt the speedwagon on ChaosOmega. Since I know I'm town, then that leads me to believe that Opie's wagon is where most/all of the scum were. Also, remember that Opie sat at L-1 for a long time without getting lynched. Meta says that we are dealing probably with SK + 2 or 3 Mafia here (i.e., 3 or 4 scum total).


@Adel: I want to hear that explanation you promised us yesterday, in regards to the Opie wagon and what you were thinking. I'd actually like to hear your opinions of all the remaining players.

[Patrick]

Ok. So if ChaosOmega is a cop, he's either insane or paranoid. Assuming there's no other cop claim, does anyone know whether vollkan is a bastard mod type of guy? Having a single non sane cop in any game is very very rare, I'm not sure I've even seen a case of it happening. ChaosOmega choosing to claim so close to deadline looks terrible for him; he knew when the deadline was, and it looks entirely too convenient that he claimed when he did, at a time when scum would obviously want to do it as a last minute confusion tactic. If he's legit, that's awful play, as is the rest of his play in general. Investigating Guardian is plausible for him to have done as cop, but that's about the only thing going for him.

I don't really think Guardian was killed as a way to setup Erg0, and don't find that avenue particularly interesting. I do think Erg0 is probably town if ChaosOmega is mafia; I think he's been acting generally town all game and the vote on ChaosOmega doesn't hurt. Same for Incognito, who sounded particularly genuine to me yesterday. I'm not sure how much to analyse the scummier people for possible buddies of ChaosOmega, which would be a total waste of time if ChaosOmega is actually a cop, or even an SK as has been suggested. I have to say when I read the opening flavour of the game I felt like it emphasised a town v mafia kind of game and there would be no SK, but after last night it definitely seems possible.

I too would like Adel to explain what she chose not to explain yesterday, and why she chose not to.

If CO is mafia, then they have cut loose their damaged goods and distanced themselves from a fakeclaim, while looking town in the process.

I guess this is possible. I won't be giving any credit for being on his lynch if he turns out to be mafia though. The real information is from yesterday, especially with two innocent wagons going on.

[Adel]

I'll explain later.

This is vollkan's first modded game on mafiascum.net.

[Patrick]

I'll explain later.

How much later?

[Adel]

When I am at home and have my notes in front of me. Off of the top of my head I can't remember what it was that I was supposed to explain today... I only know that I said it to wifom the scum into either killing me or not killing me last night. I won't say if it worked or not

[Incognito]

I have a few things to add here.

Oman, I still really, really,

really

dislike your play from Day 1. Aside from your question avoidance (btw, you

still

never answered my questions that I repeatedly copied over and over) there were other things about your play that struck me as scummy. You can give yourself a pat on the back for being the third vote on opie. I don't have an issue with this. But let's have a look at your vote:

Unvote Vote Opie

Adel has convinced me with a majority of her arguments (I feel some are incorrect, but confirmation bias explains those).

In conclusion: TrustGossip must stop posting. Opie must stop breathing.

You placed your vote on opie despite the fact that you conceded that Adel's case on opie wasn't water-tight. Then on February 25th after mentioning that you approve of the opie wagon, you made it a point to mention the following:

I'm the first.

No lip from you or I won't "happy scumday" you tomorrow.

which is an interesting post to me. Yes, you became "the first" vote on opie because both Adel and Xylthixlm (the two people who voted for opie prior to you) had unvoted but the fact that you would even

mention

that seems odd. I'm trying really, really, really hard not to read this post as: "Yes, I know opie will come up as town but since I was the first vote, I obviously can't be scum. First voters aren't scum."

Then your actions following your vote got even weirder and more anti-town to me. There were plenty of other things that happened after you placed your vote on opie that you probably could have and

should have

talked about if you were town but you chose not to. All we got from you were statements like this:

Adel, how about Big Love mafia?

Eww. Please don't mention that game.

Getting a strong town read off Adel.

I approve of the Opie wagon.

It could've been someone else, I didn't check.

which really don't amount to anything at all. In my opinion, if you were town, even if you felt like your vote on opie was completely warranted (which, by the way, I find it hard to believe since you even conceded that Adel's case wasn't water-tight) you probably should have commented on the other developments that were going on. In fact, you even promised that you would comment on these developments but instead you never did:

Xyl and ChaosOmega have already been allowed to get away with majorly wagonny votes on opie

I will review these.

And by the time the deadline drew to a close, it was too late.

So now my questions:

1) Can you please review these "wagonny votes" mentioned previously by Erg0 and provide your thoughts about them?

2) Can you please finally respond to my question that I only asked what three or four times in the thread?

3) Can you please explain why you agreed with a case that wasn't water-tight and why you didn't feel the need to comment on everything else that was going on in the thread throughout Day 1?

More later~

[Erg0]

Me neither (obviously), but I thought it was interesting that both of the players that I opposed lynching yesterday are now dead. Obviously opie was a communal decision, but I doubt that it was a coincidence that Guardian was killed last night (unless he was giving off power role tells that I missed).

I don't understand why you feel this way, Erg0. It's not like you were the only one who was opposed to lynching Guardian yesterday. Why do you feel like this night-kill of Guardian was somehow used to set you and only you up?

I'm being egocentric again, ignore me if you'd prefer.

I don't particularly want to rush the CO lynch, but there's a limit to what we can achieve today whilst talking around the elephant in room. Those with something relevant to say should say it, but everything turned out pretty much how I expected yesterday so I don't have much more to add right now. My opinions at the end of yesterday are basically unchanged.

[Oman]

Me neither (obviously), but I thought it was interesting that both of the players that I opposed lynching yesterday are now dead. Obviously opie was a communal decision, but I doubt that it was a coincidence that Guardian was killed last night (unless he was giving off power role tells that I missed).

NO! You say "me neither...BUT!!!" Do you or don't you?

I say we put ChaosOmega on the back burner for the moment and revisit him later today.

I agree entirely.

You placed your vote on opie despite the fact that you conceded that Adel's case on opie wasn't water-tight.

No case is ever water tight. As town, we do the best we can. Overall, it was the best we had.

Yes, you became "the first" vote on opie because both Adel and Xylthixlm (the two people who voted for opie prior to you) had unvoted but the fact that you would even mention that seems odd.

I was looking at the votecount at the time. I meant first as in L-5. The "first" vote. Kind of like the third vote, no matter what actually number it is, if there are two people on before you, its the third vote.

if you were town, even if you felt like your vote on opie was completely warranted you probably should have commented on the other developments that were going on.

I can't believe you thought you'd get away with that. You didn't quote my erg0 situation or anything, you just quoted my 1 liners.

1) Can you please review these "wagonny votes" mentioned previously by Erg0 and provide your thoughts about them?

2) Can you please finally respond to my question that I only asked what three or four times in the thread?

3) Can you please explain why you agreed with a case that wasn't water-tight and why you didn't feel the need to comment on everything else that was going on in the thread throughout Day 1?
1) Can you please review these "wagonny votes" mentioned previously by Erg0 and provide your thoughts about them?

2) Can you please finally respond to my question that I only asked what three or four times in the thread?

3) Can you please explain why you agreed with a case that wasn't water-tight and why you didn't feel the need to comment on everything else that was going on in the thread throughout Day 1?

I'll do this later.

does anyone know whether vollkan is a bastard mod type of guy?

I know him to be a bastard <3 Samuel!

Unvote

I intend to vote CO again, but later.

[Erg0]

I don't look at nightkills for scumtells. Its too easier to WIFOM.

Me neither (obviously), but I thought it was interesting that both of the players that I opposed lynching yesterday are now dead. Obviously opie was a communal decision, but I doubt that it was a coincidence that Guardian was killed last night (unless he was giving off power role tells that I missed).

NO! You say "me neither...BUT!!!" Do you or don't you?

The "but" was in reference to your original statement about looking for scumtells. I agree that looking for scumtells in nightkills is usually futile (certainly in the early game), but I wasn't really talking about scumtells, just making a general observation on possible motivations for the Guardian kill. I don't think that this really leads back to anyone in particular.

[Matt_S]

Player by player mini-analysis after a quick reread of most of the stuff.

Adel
I never really understood why Adel was so sure that opie was scum, and so early on. However, I'll wait for Adel to give the promised explanation.

Oman
Not the nicest player, but he did state suspicions on more than one person. I'd say overall Oman's been useful and protown.

Erg0
It's probably because I was so opposed to the first wagon on him, but I've thought of Erg0 as being protown, and it seems to fit. He contributes to the discussion a lot.

ChaosOmega
If tracker and watcher mean what I think they do, then a cop doesn't seem likely. Especially an insane or paranoid cop. Hasn't contributed much.

Xylthixlm
Also isn't the nicest player. While there were things he did I disapprove of, he did ask a lot of questions of players and their suspicions. Xylthixlm could go either way.

Incognito
Seemed to be very influential day 1. I can't recall him doing anything scummy on day 1. However, today Incognito did seem to either miss or ignore how Oman had named Erg0 suspicious quite often, as well as me. I'll have to see his reply to this though.

Patrick/TrustGossip
TrustGossip looked to be helpful and fairly active. Patrick is definitely helpful and active. I can't think of anything else to say.

Jitsu
The main thing people brought up against him was that he backtracked. I've never looked at that negatively like everyone else did, but I guess I can see why they would find it suspicious. However, Jitsu is another person who asks questions, which I like.

Btw, I'm guessing that knife stabbing isn't likely to be a vig kill?