Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Yosarian2]

I'm still worried about Yos. I don't like how he's getting so far when nobody seems to be willing to go out on a limb and say they actually have a pro-town read on him. It feels like people are just putting him near the bottom by default, and under no circumstances should he be in the final two. I'd also like to point out to both Shy Guy and Skruffs that if you guys had Yos closer to the top, it would probably help Skruffs make it futher.

Think about this for a minute, though; almost no matter who the scum is, if the third from bottom person was their scumbuddy, they would have figured out a way to get me into the top 2 by now. It wouldn't be that hard. I'm hoping that they're just having a lot of trouble figuring out how to rig the vote because the #3 person is town as well, which makes it a lot harder for them.

[Mr Stoofer]

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw
opie
Thesp
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

[col]

Nocmen

Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs
Shy Guy
opie

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Yosarian2
andersonw
Ectomancer
Sarcastro
opie
Skruffs
Oman
VanDamien

[col]

VanDamian

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

We are now in the deadline window. Day 0 will end without further notice at some point before

Friday 14th March

.

It is vital that you ensure that your votes are correctly recorded in the "Current ballots" summary.

[Nocmen]

Ecto's idea actually somewhat works. However, is it possible that he is doing this as a last minute desparate attempt?

I don't really feel safe putting Skruffs in the bottom 2 right now, especially over opie.

Also Skruffs, I noticed the same thing about andersonw. Not enough real discussion from him, sort of seems like hes just changing his ballot, trying to help him as he sees fit.

[Skruffs]

Well, if I were to 'try and get to final two', I would have to try and target opie, which I am unwilling to do, because my strongest protown feel is on him. If I were to try and take out yos or shy guy, I'd need help from anderson and sarc, which I'm not comfortable doing, because if opie and shy guy are both town, it might open final 3 up to further manipulation. I will say that there is an amount of secondary tiering that has to be done; putting who you think is most town at the bottom of your list is useless if you put everyone else who thinks he's town at the top of your list.

Also, spoiler votes: in more than one situation, someone nominates a player early,and their 2nd choice nominee is also nominated, but because both only had one vote, both are elimmed and the person winds up voting a choice that is much further down their list, sometimes with only themselves as the other option.


I think everyone should look to reordering their lists to a list that would help who they want to get to final two, instead of just scummy to least scummy.
www.condorcet.org may have some software to help run sample elections,though I haven't examined too closely

[Thesp]

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

Personally, I think that one of the scum just did change his ballot; I'm increasingly thinking Thesp is probably scum. His last minute ballot change makes me even more convinced ShyGuy is town.

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

[Ectomancer]

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

Personally, I think that one of the scum just did change his ballot; I'm increasingly thinking Thesp is probably scum. His last minute ballot change makes me even more convinced ShyGuy is town.

Hrmmm, he moved Shy Guy up. Still didn't affect anything? Ok, so that makes whoever is currently in the 3rd slot suspicious.
Im also thinking you are a bit suspicious yourself for bringing up 11th hour ballot changes when we haven't agreed to lock down (though I suggested it when it would actually have been useful)

Ok, so who currently would show up 3rd? And what position is Thesp currently in?

[Ectomancer]

Ecto's idea actually somewhat works. However, is it possible that he is doing this as a last minute desparate attempt?

I don't really feel safe putting Skruffs in the bottom 2 right now, especially over opie.

Also Skruffs, I noticed the same thing about andersonw. Not enough real discussion from him, sort of seems like hes just changing his ballot, trying to help him as he sees fit.

That would assume 3 things Nocmen.
1: That I am scum and
2: We dont yet have a scum partner in the bottom 3.
3: It is unlikely that we will get one us in with small vote changes.

Im paranoid. I tend to believe the other direction. That if scum isn't already in the bottom 2, they are in the bottom 3.

Now, of the possible actions, I would choose mine. If we assume either scenario could be equally possible (I think mine more), then we certainly need to shake things up if I am right. Though we

are

giving scum a 2nd opportunity should the other scenario be true, at least there is a decent chance they

still

wont be able to get into the bottom 2,

and

we have a pattern of voting and relationships to establish that might help us actually pinpoint scum.

[Max]

I'm moving thesp up until we see the algorithm he promised

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
Thesp
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

[Ectomancer]

If we decide to change the 2 bottom townies, I'll replace them with a pair of my own, not connected to anyone elses. Fair enough?

[Ectomancer]

Also, just push the list up, so your current bottom 2 becomes 3 and 4. If done right, youve got your top 4 townies in the bottom 4, so all should be good.

[Yosarian2]

Hrmmm, he moved Shy Guy up. Still didn't affect anything? Ok, so that makes whoever is currently in the 3rd slot suspicious.
Im also thinking you are a bit suspicious yourself for bringing up 11th hour ballot changes when we haven't agreed to lock down (though I suggested it when it would actually have been useful)

I don't think locking down is an inherently good plan, but I did, in fact, state that I am not planning to move my ballot from now on except in response to other people changing their ballots.

[Thesp]

I'm moving thesp up until we see the algorithm he promised

I didn't actually have one, I was just trying to make the scum second-guess themselves. I toyed with one for a little bit before deciding it wasn't really feasible. Sorry to get your hopes up.

[Yosarian2]

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

I think he's town, and I think you're scum, so therefore I must be scum with him?

I'm not sure if that's scum logic or just the kind of typical paranoid thinking you get in situations without many hard facts, but either way, it's not helpful.

[Thesp]

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

I think he's town, and I think you're scum, so therefore I must be scum with him?

I'm not sure if that's scum logic or just the kind of typical paranoid thinking you get in situations without many hard facts, but either way, it's not helpful.

I admit there may be some paranoia, but I've been suspicious of you before now, and with my growing suspicion of Shy Guy, founded or not, coupled with my fear that you're his partner, your statement reinforces that suspicion.

Shy Guy, why do you think Yosarian2 is town? Yosarian2, why do you think Shy Guy is town?

[Shy Guy]

Code: Select all

Thesp
Max
VanDamien
Oman
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

I'm on my way out the door, but I find Thesp's talk and those supporting it very suspicious. Expect a more detailed post from me in a few hours, I'm literally leaving my house right now.

[Thesp]

Boo, boo!

I saved you some typing.

[Nocmen]

Hrmmm, he moved Shy Guy up. Still didn't affect anything? Ok, so that makes whoever is currently in the 3rd slot suspicious.
Im also thinking you are a bit suspicious yourself for bringing up 11th hour ballot changes when we haven't agreed to lock down (though I suggested it when it would actually have been useful)

I don't think locking down is an inherently good plan, but I did, in fact, state that I am not planning to move my ballot from now on except in response to other people changing their ballots.

That is the exact same way I feel. Really, I'm quite satisfied with the way this game is right now, and I am pretty certain it will be a town win if it were to end right now.

Im paranoid. I tend to believe the other direction. That if scum isn't already in the bottom 2, they are in the bottom 3.

So wait...you feel that scum very well may be in the third spot right now, and you are suggesting that everyone switches 1 and 2 with 3 and 4?

[Ectomancer]

No, I said that I think scum are already in the bottom 2. At worst they are in the bottom 3. That doesn't mean bottom 3 is likely.
I also did not say to switch 3 and 4 to 1 and 2. I said choose 2 other townies to be in the bottom 2. People will choose for their own reasons, and I dont think it will always be 3 and 4.

[andersonw]

Do you understand? I believe scum already has their buddies in place. The play backs my statement. The stigma of 11th hour vote changes also supports my statement.
So, if they already have buddies in the bottom, they would have to put the other buddy in the bottom. You would find a person near the bottom, putting a person who previously voted them near the bottom. Then, the other scum who also voted for the one near the bottom, will switch his vote to the other scum, so that he and the previous bottom scum are now voting together for the other partner. Do you see?

I now get what you mean, Ectomancer, and I think it would work, but one thing that bothers me is if some people don't change their ballots in time before the deadline, that might not turn out so well.

That is the exact same way I feel. Really, I'm quite satisfied with the way this game is right now, and I am pretty certain it will be a town win if it were to end right now.

I agree with you here, I am pretty sure that opie and shy guy are both town.

I will point out that Anderson winds up 'changing his votes' more often than ANYONE else in the game; I doubt he's 'cleaver eough' (no offense intended) to intentionally set up his list to put 'dummy accounts' up top (like opie) with intentions of helping to vote out 'townie' players towards the end, but there's something about how he's in the middle of everyone's list but still makes it to final four that bugs me.

Could you explain better what you mean by "changing his votes more often than anyone else"? It appears to me that I've only made two ballots so far.
(no offense taken)

[Ectomancer]

I think its too late as well. Here's hoping opie and Shyguy are town

[Shy Guy]

I will make a few posts. The first is in response to Ectomancer's plan:

We dont want to do it twice.

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

I disagree strongly -- look at Thesp's post right above you.

You clearly dont understand the idea, or the concept. Everyone chooses 2 different people

than their current bottom 2

.

I understand very much indeed. I like Yosarian2 and opie as the bottom -- I could see putting Skruffs and andersonw there -- but unless Skruffs and I would be the final two, then I don't like switching my final 2 at all.

So yeah Andersonw and ShyGuy, I dont think you've actually looked at the idea, or maybe just didnt understand it.

I'm fairly sure I understand it, and I disagree with it -- in your original presentation, I disagree strongly with your first assumption.

Assumption #1: Scum has their list prepared properly. Oh, they might shift people around a bit, but in ways that wont affect the overall outcome.

I strongly disagree with this -- I think scum are about to try and get a shift going to make their buddies last to the final two. Thesp's shift is indicative of this to me -- as is your proposition, honestly. What's not to say that you are trying to dislodge townies from the final 2 and hopefully get scum there?

Also, Ectomancer, we might get caught by the deadline with our pants down -- what if half of us have switched and half haven't, and deadline hits? Such a patterned, wholesale rearrangement of ballots is something I do not support at this stage.

[Yosarian2]

Shy Guy, why do you think Yosarian2 is town? Yosarian2, why do you think Shy Guy is town?

I have a feeling that whatever I say here, your plan is to use it as "proof" that me and Shy Guy are linked, but I'll answer the question anyway.

Well, he's acted in a very pro-town way, in my opinion. Starting with his suggestion that we should be trying to figure out who is town (dispite your earlier comment, he was the first one to suggest that), and his almost immediate attempts to start asking people questions and try to figure out people's alignments. Right away, I got a distint feeling he was trying to figure me out by asking me a series of leading questions, and while it seemed like he didn't trust me, he really struck me as someone who seemed like a pro-town person honestly trying to figure out who the scum was right from the start.

He then continued to do some of the best scumhunting I'd seen so far in the game; this post is one good example of that.

Ecto, roll dice and I'll accept your premise of random selection. Yosarian2 is being selected by choice. Also, what guarantee have we that Yosarian2 picks wisely? The pledging system has problems.

I find it odd Ectomancer didn't realize the game didn't have nights. I'm unsure how a self-educating player could not realize this. The rules are rather clear, to me. Then again, springlullaby also seemed to have missed them... It seems to me that springlullaby's error was more geniune, as he is new, and though I, a new player, caught it, I could see it being missed. Ectomancer's I doubt the authenticity of, somehow.

I am very conflicted on Yosarian2 and Ectomancer right now -- I want to think I was right that Ectomancer is town, and Yosarian2 is appearing very townish recently... but I have the odd suspicion I might be getting burned. Scum definitely would want to have 3 identical ballots -- and pledging seems a great way to achieve that.

Oman, I find a stark contrast:

I put yos2 at the bottom because I believe him to be town.

I'm not happy with the whole Yos going at the bottom of everyones list.

I wanna take a look at him again, because if he is scum we're in trouble.

Could you explain?

VanDamien appears to be trying to be helpful while not being so. His plan to "guarantee a win" didn't amount to anything at all, and his voting list seems to be a rough ranking of most active posters to least.

springlullaby's post seems very, very much like it is coming from a townie.

Max & Yosarian2 have questions of mine to answer.

I'd like to remind everyone we only have a couple of weeks to finish this game.

Code: Select all

VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Max
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
springlullaby

Whew. Quite a long post.

All game, he's been quite active, he's been acting in a pro-town way, he hasn't acted in a way that feels to me like he has something to hide or like he's afraid of being connected to any specific people. He continually analyzes other people's play, gives constructive stratagy advice, and basically reacts in ways I would expect a pro-town person to react.

(shrug) Of course, we don't have anything solid on anyone this game. However, I will say that I think Shy Guy is less likely to be scum then pretty much anyone else in the game; if he is scum, he's really damn good at it.

[Ectomancer]

Also, Ectomancer, we might get caught by the deadline with our pants down -- what if half of us have switched and half haven't, and deadline hits? Such a patterned, wholesale rearrangement of ballots is something I do not support at this stage.

I think that would benefit town more than scum. Scum would have to weigh getting their ballot in vs waiting to see what everyone else does first.

[Shy Guy]

This post is in response to Thesp's suspicion of me:

I find Thesp's latest posts disingenuous. His voting seemed to move me and Yosarian2 up for little reason, and when I asked him about it, he responded to the other part of my post, but not the part about me & Yosarian2 vs. me & opie vs. me & Skruffs.

I didn't think it worth commenting on. After all, when I've been unable to reproduce precisely why I feel VanDamien's approach was more townlike than yours (though note that Sarcastro has seen the same), you've skewered me for it. Why bother here?

If you can't make any argument for

why

you find VanDamien's idea to be a pro-town one, I don't just think you are wrong to assert it,

you are wrong

to assert it. Me not buying your assumption doesn't mean that I am unjustified, your are unjustified not to explain the reasoning behind your assumption. As Yosarian2 pointed out, VanDamien didn't even propose the thing you are attributing to him -- and you didn't even really address this. I've asked you to speak in detail many times about

why

VanDamien's way of talking makes sense, or

why

his proposal makes him seem like a townie -- and you've categorically refused to do so.

I'd be very suspicious from now on if someone drastically alters their ballot without very good reasoning, and would likely alter my ballot to countermand theirs.

Does this set up red flags for anyone else?

He's strenuously arguing for the status quo

largely because he's in the bottom two

That is an entirely unjustified assumption. I support the status quo because after running a simulation, I realized just how easy this process is to scum manipulation. I also empathize with Ectomancer's 223, again after running a simulation and seeing all the close calls.

and is outright threatening towards anyone who is uncomfortable with it.

This is precisely the sort of thing that mafia would want to do in this position, if they're one of the final two.

Is this not the sort of thing town would do if they were in the final two and afraid of mafia influence? Wait -- yes it is, and you admit that:

I can understand that town might make the same comment

Even admitting that town might make the same sort of statement I am, you use it as evidence to find me scummy. Thesp, do you not, in self-reflection, find it the least bit peculiar to do so?

but it coupled with creeping uncertainty of Shy Guy, this worries me greatly.

Feel free to justify this creeping uncertainty. You haven't. You are either townie playing on a bad gut instinct, or scum without any valid reason to think I'm scummy. I'm leaning the latter, you've refused to explain and respond to many things in this game, and have tried to explain away your absence numerous times by saying you forgot about the game. I find you disingenous.

I'm moving him to the top of my list with prejudice - I don't think Shy Guy should be in the bottom two

Again, feel free to provide arguments for this. The most I've seen is a sneaking suspicion about me + Yosarian2 -- which when I responded to and asked why you didn't see a connection between me and opie, you couldn't find any way to respond to.

and his insistence that things not change worries me greatly, especially as seen here:

In general, I am very comfortable and pleased with my ballot, and especially since I think it is bad in general to change late (and will be suspicious of those who make significant changes late) I am going to leave it for now.

This is a thinly veiled threat towards anyone who thinks Shy Guy should not be in the last two, as is this:

I don't understand how my threat is at all thinly veiled -- I've explicitly said that if anyone changes their ballot in absence of great reasoning to do so, they're scummy. And I'd have found you just as scummy if you decided to move Skruffs to the top -- or Yosarian2 to the bottom -- or anyone, for a lack of reasoning. You moving anyone would be just as suspicious as you moving me.

Something that bugs me is that if scum don't have someone making it into the final two right now, they have no reason NOT to be frantically changing their ballots -- Day 0 is our only time for voting and impacting the game, and it now could end any time; it doesn't matter how scummy we find the ballot changers, if they don't change their ballots and there isn't scum in the bottom two (currently that means opie would have to be scum -- or me but I'm not) they lose. So the fact that there hasn't been a massive flurry worries me, it indicates the scum might be winning.

It poisons the well, and it suggests not only that if there's anyone who challenges the status quo, they are likely to be scum, but that it should cement the idea that Shy Guy is town. I don't like it one bit.

I'm not sure how I'm trying to cement the idea that I am town there -- or how a "well" is being "poisoned" (idiom?). However, I am asserting that anyone who challenges the status quo at this point in the game, without explicit good reasoning for doing so, is scummy. I'm not suggesting that, I'm outright saying it.

I still strongly, strongly support VanDamien as one of the last two (as I trust him way the heck more than any of you), and would recommend people give it serious consideration.

Yet you've never justified this or explained more clearly, and have in fact brushed aside numerous requests on my part that you do so!

I'm moving thesp up until we see the algorithm he promised

I didn't actually have one, I was just trying to make the scum second-guess themselves. I toyed with one for a little bit before deciding it wasn't really feasible. Sorry to get your hopes up.

Thesp, are you admitting to lying here?

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

I think he's town, and I think you're scum, so therefore I must be scum with him?

I'm not sure if that's scum logic or just the kind of typical paranoid thinking you get in situations without many hard facts, but either way, it's not helpful.

I admit there may be some paranoia, but I've been suspicious of you before now, and with my growing suspicion of Shy Guy, founded or not, coupled with my fear that you're his partner, your statement reinforces that suspicion.

Here, Thesp admits his suspicion may be completely unfounded and/or based on paranoia. I wonder, why make such a drastic ballot shift based on such shaky suspicion if you are town, Thesp?

Shy Guy, why do you think Yosarian2 is town?

I'll respond to this in a subsequent post.

In summation, Thesp has accused me of being scummy with little to no reasoned evidence for doing so -- his posts on a whole have a lack of reasoned thinking. He has failed on numerous occasions to respond to questions directly addressed to him, instead ignoring it or brushing it aside and responding only to those points which he might use to further his own motives. Finally, he has tried to stir the pot at the last possible moment, ostensibly in attempts to get Shy Guy-scum out of the final two -- but from his selective attention to arguments and lack of logical clarity, I believe it is more likely that he has an anti-town agenda. At the very least, he is extremely misguided in his assumptions about who is town and who is not.

[Shy Guy]

This post is to respond to Sarcastro's uncertainty about me:

Thesp's analysis of Shy Guy worries me a bit, though. I really felt that Shy Guy was town before

Could you point out what about Thesp's "analysis" you find appealing? I'm troubled by your (potential) change of heart, though it does seem to be genuine.

but his weird attempt at a bargain with Skruffs just seems, well, weird. He did provide some justification for it, but I'm wondering if I wouldn't prefer Opie and Skruffs or VD and Skruffs (or Opie and VD, for that matter). Any of those three combinations for the final three is fine with me (as is any combination of one of them with me, but I don't think that's going to happen). If that's not possible, Shy Guy could be substituted for one of them.

I'm not going to change my vote yet, because I don't want to screw up people who are in the middle of some kind of analysis, but I think I'm going to move Shy Guy up a couple spots pretty soon. Of course, Opie and Shy Guy in the final two is still good, so I don't want to move Shy Guy up if it would cause anyone but Skruffs or VD to move into the final two.

I'd obviously prefer to be in the final two, but of those three, I'm most okay with an opie-Skruffs pairing. Thesp has greatly failed to do so -- can you explan why you find VD townlike?

I'm still worried about Yos. I don't like how he's getting so far when nobody seems to be willing to go out on a limb and say they actually have a pro-town read on him. It feels like people are just putting him near the bottom by default, and under no circumstances should he be in the final two. I'd also like to point out to both Shy Guy and Skruffs that if you guys had Yos closer to the top, it would probably help Skruffs make it futher.

As I've said, I am loathe to make major adjustments at this time, without incredibly great reasoning to back them. However, this

may

merit some consideration. It seems it might be of more use to have Yosarian2 consider moving Skruffs down further.