Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[cicero]

None taken at all DGB. That's one more person than I trust in here.

In favor of dice popcorn

Cicero (that's me!)
Shaft.ed
curiouskarmadog
Yvonne
DGB

Opposed
Adele
CES

Silent
Fonz (who's been V/LA most of this week)

[curiouskarmadog]

CKD is the only player I'd trust. No offense, cic.

But yeah. Popcorn should work.

I have no desire to do a list, but thanks

[cicero]

In fairness to the opposition some earlier arguments they've made so they don't need to write them down again.

Adele
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 734#940734

I support a chainclaim tomorrow (including Fonz). Chaimclaims (popcorn?) my fave, and I've always supported their use in claims such as this. I'm okay with dice though.

she advocates the "Watchers Go Last" policy as statistically optimal in that post as well but seems more flexible than in the most recent post.

CES
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 314#941314

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

how will a listmaker favor the town?
By making scummier people claim before less scummy people.

And so I assume you ARE in favor of an idea that the mafia CAN influence versus one they can not?

Ceteris paribus, no, of course not. But in practice it comes down to finding a compromise between limiting scum influence and helping the town. I feel my plan does that best.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES: I'm asking you for the examples about Adele. Show me how it's consistent. Back up your assertion.

I don't remember specific examples of Adele supporting chainclaims, but I have seen her do it, certainly. I'll defer this one to Adele, as she's probably aware of at least one game in which she did.

Not to mention scum would have 3 of the 4 votes needed to annoint the listmaker.

Well, if they want to band together at that point in the game, that's fine by me.

[cicero]

Since no one is going along with your plan, CES, you cool with ours?

(note it doesnt really matter since CES doesnt have anything to claim and the only real holdout is Adele).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Well, fine, but I'll claim last out of protest!

*shakes fist defiantly*

[cicero]

Fonz is all over the site today but ignoring this game, which has had lots of activity and which has a controversial issue for him to weigh in on that affects him personally.

Noted.

Fonz is scum. I'd bet my left arm.

[YvonneSeer]

I'd bet your left arm too.

[cicero]

I'd bet your left arm too.

You bet your own damn arm, woman.

[curiouskarmadog]

vote no lynch

..if I havent already.

[YvonneSeer]

Okay, so I thought about it a little bit more and No Lynch is not as bad as I anticipated it would be. I'm now fine with a No Lynch but I would still prefer a DGB lynch by far.

[cicero]

I want Adele and Fonz on record before the No Lynch goes through and I want people willing to lynch them for not going along with the town's claim will. Otherwise this is a useless exercise.

[curiouskarmadog]

I think fonz said he would claim? I dont think he has commented on the dice thing.

Adele said she would only go first or last, lets role the the dice and see where she falls before making a huge deal out of it...maybe she will go first or last and it wont be a problem...I think we should worry about that tomorrow.

[cicero]

hmm. interesting.

[Adele]

CES: I'm asking you for the examples about Adele. Show me how it's consistent. Back up your assertion.

I don't remember specific examples of Adele supporting chainclaims, but I have seen her do it, certainly. I'll defer this one to Adele, as she's probably aware of at least one game in which she did.

Ugh. This, I find difficult, since I

tend

to forget details of games as soon as they end, so mostly only remember games that I can't point to as they are ongoing. However:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=298
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=201
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=165

Whenever people push a massclaim of any sort, I

always

press for chainclaiming; if more than 50% of the claimers are town, it seems better than chance to me. Just the same as if we

had

to lynch today, we'd be better off voting than picking the victim from a diceroll because "that way the scum can't influence it" - with more town than scum here, it seems obvious to me that the balance of influence is on the town side.

However, the bulk of opinion seems against me. I'll abide by that, in terms of not going on about chainclaiming any more - but can anyone present reasoning why it's better for watchers to ever go in the middle than at one or other end? I think earlier CES proved with game theory that the optimal behaviour is for the watchers to always go last, and I don't want sub-optimal play to rule

now

of all times because we're following what the majority feels most comfortable with rather than what hard logic shows to benefit the town the most.

To clarify - yes, I'd rather take a risk of having to present my findings

first

, than probably go in the middle and so have them potentially useless both to check other peoples' claims

and

to check

mine

.
If you follow.

[cicero]

Adele - if you are town it is BEST for you to go last. If you are scum, you going last is the WORST option for town. Especially because you are possibly going to be able to watch twice. It is, essentially, a high risk-high reward strategy. The inverse is true about going first.

If your play had been so good and so aggressive and so inquisitve and generally obv-townie I might be persuaded to go for it. But that simply hasn't been the case. I haven't played with you before so my meta isnt very good, but I see you as fairly suspicious.

CES is correct in saying that it is optimal for watchers to go last over a large number of possible games, but we aren't playing a large number of games. We're playing one. And we are in the unfortunate position of having both our watchers be players who have a rather low post, tentative posting style (for whatever reason) that certainly reads as scum playing defensively.

Now that, certainly, has something to do with your schedule and Yvonne's style of play. But there is enough evidence against you both that we simply cannot just let you go last. And your very useful powers are at their weakest if we let you go first.

So the least best option is to let the dice decide when you both go. As far as I'm concerned the middle is a FINE place for you to go. Because it leaves you AND someone else capable of being caught in a lie. Just not as many people.

So Is it perfect? No. Will it

definitely

catch scum? No. But it is townside's least-bad option weighing all possible evidence and options. The watchers get in the queue like everyone else and let the chips fall where they may. Believe me, I wish I could say just go last.

The only other idea I thought of requires a fair amount of trust in me (and both of us staying alive) But if I target you tonight to join my network I will get 24 hours after your choices have been submitted to talk to you. I will be unable to affect anything with those choices but I can act as a repository for the information. But the problems with that are obvious. You don't know my alignment. Scum in such a situation could win the game with a bold lie, since it's LYLO. (We're dangerously close to a "No, Spock, I'm the Real Kirk!" situation in this game).

More importantly, I don't really want to be the mafia's alibi when they accuse me of shooting you dead.

[DrippingGoofball]

Adele - [...]

More importantly,

I don't really want to be the mafia's alibi when they accuse me of shooting you dead.

If you thought that Adele is mafia, then you would know that she wouldn't be nightkilled by her buddies, right?

The underlying assumption behind that sentence is that you KNOW that Adele is town, and that if she is nightkilled, which you might be thinking about doing, you don't want it to look bad on YOU.

Is there any other interpretation, other that you KNOW Adele is town, for you to write the above sentence the way you did?

[cicero]

omg, DG.

You are so...

think it through.

Seriously.

[DrippingGoofball]

What? What am I missing?

[cicero]

No. If someone that isn't you decides there's something in what I said that's a bloody glove, I'll talk to them. But I'm not going down the rabbit hole into your wonderland. Sorry.

Here's some hints for you though: Explore the concepts of

possible outcomes

vs.

certain outcomes.

And since you're parsing text for subtle clues:

More importantly, I don't really want to be

the mafia's

alibi when

they

accuse

me

of shooting you dead.

[The Fonz]

Will read, and post tonight.

[Adele]

Adele - [...]

More importantly,

I don't really want to be the mafia's alibi when they accuse me of shooting you dead.

If you thought that Adele is mafia, then you would know that she wouldn't be nightkilled by her buddies, right?

The underlying assumption behind that sentence is that you KNOW that Adele is town, and that if she is nightkilled, which you might be thinking about doing, you don't want it to look bad on YOU.

Is there any other interpretation, other that you KNOW Adele is town, for you to write the above sentence the way you did?

Oh my God, DGB. If he were

certain

I was scum, he'd be voting me. As it is, he merely thinks it

somewhat probable

, and is therefore worried

both

about me hiding my scummy night actions,

and

about me being the target of the NK tonight. These are

not

mutually exclusive concerns to have, simply because they can't both come to pass, just as I can (in RL) both be worried about dying of cancer and abouth dying in a car crash. They can't

both

happen, but I should take precautions about them both.

Adele - if you are town it is BEST for you to go last. If you are scum, you going last is the WORST option for town. Especially because you are possibly going to be able to watch twice. It is, essentially, a high risk-high reward strategy. The inverse is true about going first.

If your play had been so good and so aggressive and so inquisitve and generally obv-townie I might be persuaded to go for it. But that simply hasn't been the case. I haven't played with you before so my meta isnt very good, but I see you as fairly suspicious.

CES is correct in saying that it is optimal for watchers to go last over a large number of possible games, but we aren't playing a large number of games. We're playing one. And we are in the unfortunate position of having both our watchers be players who have a rather low post, tentative posting style (for whatever reason) that certainly reads as scum playing defensively.

Now that, certainly, has something to do with your schedule and Yvonne's style of play. But there is enough evidence against you both that we simply cannot just let you go last. And your very useful powers are at their weakest if we let you go first.

So the least best option is to let the dice decide when you both go. As far as I'm concerned the middle is a FINE place for you to go. Because it leaves you AND someone else capable of being caught in a lie. Just not as many people.

OK. I'm not convinced it's optimal - but it doesn't make me totally toothless, I see that now. You win.

[curiouskarmadog]

thinking back..

Adele, at the start of the day when we were all claiming, you were about to claim who you targetted, of course you couldnt have targetted anyone because I jailed you. But you did submit that you were going to target someone last night. I assume it was a watcher ability...at what point were you told that that action had failed?

[DrippingGoofball]

You just crashed my cerebral hard disk. True, it was a TRS-80, but it was a step up from punch cards.