Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Mr Stoofer]

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
opie
andersonw
Skruffs
Thesp
Nocmen

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Shy Guy
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Day 0 will end between

Monday 3rd March

and

Friday 14th March

.

[Skruffs]

P.S. - Any new ballots submitted should move everyone who submits a new ballot after the recent result breakdown to the top. They can be right under me, I dont care, but changing your ballot at this point deserves a penalty, IE, you get moved up.

If you do that, you will prevent scum from making a move that put themselves in a better position. Their best hope is to position their

buddies

. That also means their buddies cant change

their

ballots, or suffer the same fate.
It binds scum. We have many more town, so binding a townie in such a manner isn't as big a deal.

That is absolutely insane. Are you literally threatening EVERYONE in the game that if they attempt to do ANY FURTHER scum hunting that they should be lynched???
I'm glad I have you at the top of my list.

[Skruffs]

Also, for hte record, the results aren't accurate : I believe at least one player has changed their ballot since I did the run down AND it has ben explained that my tie-breaking setup isn't accurate either.

[Ectomancer]

P.S. - Any new ballots submitted should move everyone who submits a new ballot after the recent result breakdown to the top. They can be right under me, I dont care, but changing your ballot at this point deserves a penalty, IE, you get moved up.

If you do that, you will prevent scum from making a move that put themselves in a better position. Their best hope is to position their

buddies

. That also means their buddies cant change

their

ballots, or suffer the same fate.
It binds scum. We have many more town, so binding a townie in such a manner isn't as big a deal.

That is absolutely insane. Are you literally threatening EVERYONE in the game that if they attempt to do ANY FURTHER scum hunting that they should be lynched???
I'm glad I have you at the top of my list.

Yep.

Only scum knows how the list needs to be maniplulated. The rest of you are just making a guess. The list is far more likely to be manipulated in a manner that benefits scum.

Leave it alone.

[Max]

because sacastro has still yet to move votes my votes stands

[Skruffs]

So not only do YOU not want to post your OWN list, you also want to keep everyone ELSE from posting their own lists as well? ANd coincidentally the person you are following after just happens to make it to final three?
And, also coincidentally, you being lynched first still results in your scum team winning if ANY of them make it to final three?

[Ectomancer]

You all have posted lists. Let it stand.

Scum must be in the final 2 to win.

Methinks there is much protesting right now because Scum is not there yet if the breakdown goes as projected earlier.

Let it run.

[Sarcastro]

Sweet zombie Jesus, Ectomancer, are you listening to yourself? You're acting like a complete idiot. You ignored my entire explanation of how your plan is terrible

even if you're town

. Now you're demanding that nobody change their ballots at all, because the game would currently proceed in a way you like? Get your head out of your ass. I haven't even submitted a ballot that properly reflects my suspicions yet, and you want to deny me that right

just because

?

Seriously, Ectomancer, you have no goddamn idea what you're talking about, and it's really getting on my nerves.

[Ectomancer]

Seriously, Ectomancer, you have no goddamn idea what you're talking about, and it's really getting on my nerves.

That's too bad. Scum.

[Thesp]

I've not forgotten about this game - I'll try to get a good, substantive post in tomorrow. I think Ectomancer is a distraction.

Where did Shy Guy go?

[Sarcastro]

Seriously, Ectomancer, you have no goddamn idea what you're talking about, and it's really getting on my nerves.

That's too bad. Scum.

Oh, clever. I don't agree with your blatantly anti-town play, so I'm scum.

Why are you so sure that the people currently left alive at the end are all town? Do you even know who they would be? I don't (the lists have changed since Skruffs analysed them).

Is this another thing about probability? Because given any two players, it is almost as likely that at least one of them is scum (43.75%) than that they are both town (56.25%). That's not even taking into consideration that scum are able to manipulate their votes a lot more effectively than the town are.

So yeah, if you're town, you're being an idiot. And of course, if you're scum (which looks even more likely to me now), you might already know that the current configuration of votes would give you a win.

Do you actually expect anyone to take you seriously, Ecto? You're not making any sense at all.

Here's my real list now (I decided not to change anything after all):

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[Ectomancer]

I think Ectomancer is a distraction.

It's quite simple Thesp. Ballots arrived at by various methods, and then left unmanipulated, period, allows town the best probability for a win. Random is in our favor. Unmanipulated is in our favor. Only one group is informed in this game, and it is the minority one. Their entire power lies in their ability to manipulate the ballots. Random is their enemy.

In point of fact, I would be equally happy to list our entire town in alphabetical order and then generate a random number list for the order in which to place them. You can scrap the entire current list if you like, I dont care.

But I certainly dont feel like giving Sarcastro time to "organize his list properly" now that he can see what the rest of you have done. Oh my gosh, but isn't it just terrible of me to say he shouldn't be allowed to do it? Or anyone else for that matter?

You want to redo the list? Random it up. I wont support any other form of manipulation (especially from Scumcastro)

[Ectomancer]

[Oh, clever. I don't agree with your blatantly anti-town play, so I'm scum.

You're scum because your PM says so, duh.

[Nocmen]

Sarcastro...why should I not put you near the top for what seems to me as you going to set things up so you will have crap logic for making a ballot benficial to you and your scum buddys?

[Sarcastro]

Ecto, stop being foolish. Random lists do

not

give the town the best chance at winning any more than random lynches do in regular games. The whole point of the game is to

hunt for the scum

, not to roll the dice and hope that we win. Even if we

did

have a better chance that way, I still wouldn't want to, because it

removes the entire point of the game

. It would suck all the fun and all the challenge out.

In any case, this isn't even relevant, because

the lists aren't random

. My list was not random, it was copied from ShyGuy at the last minute because I needed a list. All that does is make ShyGuy's (also not random) vote worth more. Your list isn't random, either; it's based on Yos's list, which is also not random. Again, if you're town and Yos is scum, you've put the town in a terrible position.

All you're saying is that you like the lists people have right now. Why on earth should I use a list that in my opinion

makes the scum more likely to win

when I could change it to a better list? Just because you prefer me to have a list I consider inferior? Think about what you're saying.

Of course, I'm also rather amused that you're the one threatening people. As long as you're Yos's list-clone, you can't even follow through on your threat unless Yos does. So you have to choose which one of your ludicrously anti-town schemes to stick to. This should be interesting.

[Sarcastro]

Sarcastro...why should I not put you near the top for what seems to me as you going to set things up so you will have crap logic for making a ballot benficial to you and your scum buddys?

I have no idea what you're attempting to say. What did I do that you think is scummy?

[Nocmen]

Sarcastro...why should I not put you near the top for what seems to me as you going to set things up so you will have crap logic for making a ballot benficial to you and your scum buddys?

I have no idea what you're attempting to say. What did I do that you think is scummy?

I see the way your post 219 is just you setting up any way to get the people on the top of your ballot without increasing as much suspicion.

[Yosarian2]

Ecto, stop being foolish. Random lists do

not

give the town the best chance at winning any more than random lynches do in regular games. The whole point of the game is to

hunt for the scum

, not to roll the dice and hope that we win. Even if we

did

have a better chance that way, I still wouldn't want to, because it

removes the entire point of the game

. It would suck all the fun and all the challenge out.

Oddly, I agree with sarc here. I don't think that randomness is in the town's best interest here. If everyone voted at random, then that would give the town a, um, I think a 9/16 chance of winning, only slightly better then 50/50. But I doubt the scum are voting at random, I would guess they're voting to help themselves, so that makes the odds even worse.

ANd this "no one should move their votes at all" thing is just silly. I would hope pro-town votes will get better and better over time as we get more information.

[Yosarian2]

In fact, I'm going to shift my votes a bit right now.

Opie: Was previously at the top of my list for "me-too" play. He has stopped doing that, and in general his recent posts make more sense. Going to move him down a bit on the list.

VanDamien: Scummy. Has posted very little, seems to have very poor and seemingly illogical choices; I can understand people suspectecting ecto, but he keeps refusing to explain why shy guy is so high on his list. Hasn't really explained anything. And honestly, even if I wasn't sure he was scum, I would still want to get him out of the voting pool early, just because the bottom two people on his list are Thesp and Skruffs, who are currently my other two top suspects. It's also worth noting that VanDamien is currently (and strangly) quite low on Thesp's list, no reasons given.

Sarc: Bah. Still really no bad vibes from him, but it seems like he's, well, wrong about a lot of stuff. Could you explain why you have Skruffs at the bottom of your list, Sarc? Also, you have VanDamien somewhat low on your list (fourth from bottom); what do you think about him, specifically?

Thinking about this, it really seems to me that the key is going to be those last few survivors, and if I think someone has scum at the bottom of their lists, then I might want that person out of the voting pool early no matter what their alignment is just to help prevent a scum win. I'm not certain if that's right, though...this voting system still kind of confuses me.

Thesp: You said you're now a bit more wary of Skruffs, but you still have him second-from-bottom on your list. Could you be a little more specific? I'm also wondering why you have VanDamien so low on your list.

Ecto: If I had to guess, I'd still think he's a pro-town guy trying out wierd stratagies for a wierd theme game. I don't really agree him much here on stratagy, but I have trouble figuing out how anything he's done could help him as scum. I'll still leave him fairly low on my list, I think.

Andrew still hasn't posted all that much. Waiting to see the promised explination for his list.

So, mostly just some cosmetic changes from my previous list for now. VanDamien up from #2 to #1, Opie down several notches, down to under Thesp and Skruffs. Expect more changes once Thesp and Sarcastro answer my questions.

Code: Select all

VanDamien 
Thesp 
Skruffs 
andersonw 
opie 
Oman 
Nocmen 
Sarcastro 
Max 
Ectomancer 
Shy Guy 

[Shy Guy]

Hi fellows. Like Thesp asked, I'm still here, just nothing particularly important to say. I've only been "gone" for a few days.

I disagree that shifting votes right now is scummy, but I do think once March 3 hits anyone switching votes is bad.

I'm happy I didn't get lynched, I am trying to think really carefully about the bottom of my list -- I know I am town, and if you guys keep not lynching me, then if I just pick the right other player to keep to the last, then the town wins!

I find it really odd how Oman seemed to move me higher just because I wasn't lynched. I'm not sure what reasonable motivation he might have for doing so.

Skruffs, I actually empathize quite a bit with you now.

Nocmen asked why he should think I'm town -- I responded to all of your points, maybe you could think on it and find me more town? I'm unsure how else -- I've been trying to help out and find scum and town, but not sure what more I could do than to ask you to look at my play and see that I am trying to help.

I am going to look at my whole list comprehensively, and see what I think.

Max - Still most scummy. He said that I had a newbie "vibe" not "mistakes". But didn't point it out. So still top here.
VanDamien - I don't see why people find him town. Nothing real substantial from him.
Oman - His vote shift seemed very arbitrary. I've seen nothing from him to make me think he is town.
Sarcastro - Looked fairly town recently, made some good points about Ectomancer.
Nocmen - Seems to be trying to hunt scum more than he was earlier. I get a better impression.
Thesp - Reasonable play, but only one really substantial post from him so far. Keeps "forgetting" about game.
Skruffs - Makes good sense. Put in a lot of effort on the vote count. I am sad that he puts me so high, because I would potentially like him to be in the last two with me. I am going to shift him down.
andersonw - I find him very town. His recent posts seem distanced, but like town trying to figure things out.
Ectomancer - I think he could be town, but his ideas are overall very off to me. Pledging is an easy way to hide... overall bad vibe here, recently.
Yosarian2 - Still find him pretty town.
opie - Still find him pretty town.

Skruffs, why do you rank me so high? I still don't fully understand your reasons, and while I think I get where you are coming from, it would be much better if

you

, specifically, placed me lower, since I want you to stay around for pretty long, but I don't want you to stay around and help lynch me.

If you moved me to last, I'd move you to last, but I don't see how me moving you to last when you have me at the top makes sense -- it would mean that whoever is in the bottom three with us would ALSO have to be town for us to win, if you lynched me then. So I'd rather have to only be right about one player, than about two. I feel more confident about you than opie or Yosarian2, but keeping you around so you vote me off in the final three doesn't make logical sense.

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

[andersonw]

Andrew still hasn't posted all that much. Waiting to see the promised explination for his list.

Oh yeah, and my basic reasons for my list were that I just tried to see who looked like they were scumhunting the most and who I got vibes from. If anyone wants to ask for clarification, I can provide a few examples of posts.

I guess I will also provide a few examples of the people at the top of my right now.
Max-don't like his explanations of ballots. I don't understand what he means in this post, next to Ectomancer

Sarcastro ^moving up to top (buddying up claimed only to be doing that till changing vote not yet done so)
Ectomancer ^Moving higher up see sarc

Sarcastro's and ectomancer's reasons for "buddying up" were completely different.

Oman-hasn't posted anything with content and says that because everyone thinks yos is town, it makes him think that yos is not town. I agree with yosarian that it is illogical thinking.
Ectomancer-definitely don't like the pledging thing, and his logic is completely wrong sometimes, as stated by Sarcastro already.

VanDamien-has posted even less than me, also barely any content at all



It appears to me that Skruffs has been posting a lot of his opinions and is actively scumhunting since I last made my ballot, moving him down.

Code: Select all

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[andersonw]

EBWOP:
"I guess I will also provide a few examples of the people at the top of my right now. "
should be
"I guess I will also provide a few examples of the people at the top of my ballot right now. "

[Oman]

Mod

My ISP shit itself, I should be back at some time over the next few days.

If not, I'll get Mackay and Casinopete to post for me .

[Yosarian2]

I disagree that shifting votes right now is scummy, but I do think once March 3 hits anyone switching votes is bad.

I'm not sure that's true either. After "deadline" is when the quality of information we get is going to go up, and people should be willing to modify their votes based on new information.

[Ectomancer]

Anyone can make good points against Ecto, Shy Guy. That's not townie, that's someone looking for an easy way to

look

townie. I literally laughed when Sarcastro asked how I could threaten anyone while copying Yosarian2. I laughed because he is clearly

feeling

threatened, and his last posts, rather than sounding townie, sound like scum falling apart.

Let's assume that the ballots were indeed locked, all except for two people. Thesp and Skruffs.

How would you change your ballots to influence the outcome, and why?