Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!

[Jitsu]

Guardian reads mildly protown to me. opie, not so much - his signal to noise ratio is too low.

Since I've generally thought of you as town, I'm interested in your opinions. I'm wondering why Guardian is reading pro-town to you -- the last I remember he was coming up neutral to you. Also, is there any other reason (besides signal-to-noise ratio) why Opie is reading less town to you?

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Votecount #19

opie - 5 (Oman, ChaosOmega, pickemgenius, Guardian, Xylthixlm)

Guardian - 4 (opie, Incognito, Jitsu, Adel)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)

Not voting - 2 (Erg0, Patrick)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
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[Guardian]

I re-read the game.

I see great justification for the wagon on opie, and for suspicion of Matt_S. I'd be happy wagoning either. Of the two, I prefer opie, because of their interactions together that make it look like Matt_S scum might follow from opie scum.

Secondarily, I also think ChaosOmega has been posting extremely minimally, and our eyes should be kept on him.

I am leaning Adel-town after re-read, for the record. She seems to be playing as she usually does as town and trying creative things to get reactions... And her cases and reasons make sense.


I probably should be less lazy and respond to Incognito's case against me, but like I've said earlier, his facts are not wrong, and his interpretation of the facts is not easily arguable. I disagree with his interpretation, and more significantly I am correct as I know my role and he doesn't, but it is not easily arguable.

opie's vote on me still seems like hangover from when I wagoned Erg0 early in the game, and that makes little sense. I also believe that his vote is on me in good part because I am a viable counter-wagon to his, at this juncture.

I feel I owe it to my faction to put up a proper defense against the rest of the suspicion against me, however, mainly Jitsu's case (and Adel's support thereof).

What I can say is this: I don't claim to playing the game perfectly (I'd have spent the time long ago to respond to Incog, I'd also have thought more carefully about Adel's claiming she knew I was town). However, the majority of your suspicion against me is that I reacted badly to a gambit (I am going to assume it was just a gambit, unless Adel says otherwise -- it seems like horrible play for her to remain voting me if she does in fact know I am town)

that was designed to generate scummy reactions

.

Granted, I'm sure Adel was hoping it would generate a certain good reaction from townies, and a certain bad one from scum, and I also grant my thinking about her statements was not particularly clear -- I was very confused, and decided just to leave it alone -- her thinking I was town was not a bad thing, so I thought I'd leave it at that.

However, I don't think the most logical explanation for my reaction is that I am scum -- I posit that it is that I encountered something new and strange in a mafia game, and didn't quite know how to deal with it. I'm not sure how/if my reaction would have been different had I been scum, but as town, I was confused, and after probing once and getting an equally confusing answer from Adel, I just dropped it.

Incognito's and opie's votes I can stand, as I think the former has marginally good reasons and the latter is incredibly scummy and is providing us with some great information about opie's motivations, but Jitsu's and Adel's votes I believe are not quite well thought out, and I believe I've offered a just as plausible if not much more plausible explanation for why I reacted the way I did.

I'll say again for emphasis: reacting in a potentially scummy or seemingly contradictory way to a gambit designed to create potentially scummy or contradictory reactions isn't a scum tell. It's a simple cause-effect.

[Adel]

meh

unvote, vote:opie

[Erg0]

That's -1, yes?

Of the two big wagons I'd lynch opie over Guardian, events elsewhere have led me to conclude that I have a better handle on Guardian's play than I thought I did. My case on opie is a little out of date, so I'll update that while we wait for a claim.

[Incognito]

I

really

dislike this opie wagon because it has three people on it who I'm receiving very scummy vibes from (Guardian, ChaosOmega, and Oman). ChaosOmega and Oman both have contributed very little to the game except to poke their heads in every once in awhile and mention who they think is scummy, and I've already outlined my suspicions of Guardian fairly throughly in a number of posts. Oman has even gone so far as to completely ignore my previous questions that I've asked of him. I can't help but get the feeling that opie is an innocent townie who's being rung up for dubious reasons.

If he is the lynch for today and does turn up scum, then obviously I'm going to have to re-read and see how things look with that new knowledge. I just have a hard time believing that these two people in particular (Oman and ChaosOmega) who both seem to not even be reading the thread can come to this conclusion that opie is scum without even weighing in on the other possibilities.

[Guardian]

Incognito, who do you find suspicious other than me?

[Incognito]

I just said it...

[Guardian]

Grrr, meant to read over posts, and not submit that. I used tabs to get to "Go" for incognito, and messed up and hit submit.

Clearly you are finding CO & Oman suspicious -- and I agree that CO needs and eye kept on. Anyone you want to mention besides them?

[Patrick]

This is basically a check in post, must force myself to do some reread tomorrow when it's not 1 am and decide which I'd prefer here because I'm hazy on it. For now though, Incognito, do you agree with the case that Jitsu made against Guardian?

[Matt_S]

Unvote

Guess these are the only lynches to choose from. Now to wait for opie to claim.

[Erg0]

If we're choosing between them, which would you rather lynch?

[Matt_S]

At the moment, I'd have to say opie. Since Guardian's random wagon he's been acting fairly helpful. The main question about Guardian right now is why he didn't call Adel out, which we'll never be able to know for sure. I don't really see anything that screams scum from either person, but opie seems to have been the less useful of the two.

[Incognito]

Anyone you want to mention besides them?

Not at the moment, no. I'm not going as far as you or Adel had earlier to state that the likeliest scum team is so and so and so because that seems plain old stupid to me, but what I'm stating is that the actions of you, Oman, and ChaosOmega have been the most questionable

thus far

.

For now though, Incognito, do you agree with the case that Jitsu made against Guardian?

I found myself liking the exchange had between Jitsu and Guardian and do think the case Jitsu made against Guardian makes a lot of sense. I'd love to say this politely but for lack of better terms, I feel like Guardian pulled something out of his ass by claiming that Adel had some sort of "role-based information" to determine that he's somehow town. It seems like Guardian was backtracking to me. ChaosOmega's post where he interjects seemed like a "hey, scumbuddy, pick up the slack" kind of post.

Also, I really dislike how Guardian seems to find everyone and anyone scummy just for voicing negative opinion about him. He's gone down the entire list basically: opie, Matt_S, Incognito, Adel, Jitsu... there comes a point where that's clearly too many people to be scum all at once, and if he truly is town, he needs to realize the possibility that perhaps he's playing really badly.

[Guardian]

I found myself liking the exchange had between Jitsu and Guardian and do think the case Jitsu made against Guardian makes a lot of sense. I'd love to say this politely but for lack of better terms, I feel like Guardian pulled something out of his ass by claiming that Adel had some sort of "role-based information" to determine that he's somehow town. It seems like Guardian was backtracking to me.

Like I've said, I had no idea what to think. I thought there were a few good reasons I maybe should leave it alone; looking back I probably shouldn't have.

Also, I really dislike how Guardian seems to find everyone and anyone scummy just for voicing negative opinion about him. He's gone down the entire list basically: opie, Matt_S, Incognito, Adel, Jitsu... there comes a point where that's clearly too many people to be scum all at once, and if he truly is town, he needs to realize the possibility that perhaps he's playing really badly.

Where've I said you were scum? Above and beyond that, this is obviously a mis-characterization of my stance at this point: I just made a post with a paragraph describing why I am strongly leaning Adel town right now. And where is Jitsu in my top three scum prospects? And isn't Matt_S supporting lynching opie over me? And I don't find opie scummy for voting me per se, I find him scummy for voting me because the vote seems very outdated, and not supported by... reason.

You've been making quite a bit of sense, but this last part seems... well like you said, seems a bit like you are pulling it out of your ass.

[Incognito]

Where've I said you were scum? Above and beyond that, this is obviously a mis-characterization of my stance at this point: I just made a post with a paragraph describing why I am strongly leaning Adel town right now. And where is Jitsu in my top three scum prospects? And isn't Matt_S supporting lynching opie over me? And I don't find opie scummy for voting me per se, I find him scummy for voting me because the vote seems very outdated, and not supported by... reason.

You've been making quite a bit of sense, but this last part seems... well like you said, seems a bit like you are pulling it out of your ass.

Oh you're really asking for it now aren't ya? Let's look at the thread locations where you've done exactly as I've mentioned above:

First indication:

Opie's post actually heightened my suspicion there -- I'd really like a good explanation from both opie, and Jitsu who categorically "liked opie's post" to explain why everyone voting Erg0 is worthy of suspicion.

Opie and Jitsu suspicions.

Second indication:

I find an opie-Matt_S scum-group not unlikely.

Incognito might be a good third, I don't see I straw-man'd him significantly, just pointed out an inconsistency that he didn't refute.

What's that? Incognito a good third? I guess you

did

label me as scum previously.

Third indication:

I've seen a scum say this like 3 times and never a townie.

That seems rather definitive, no?

Fourth indication:

Thinking about the last page with a clearer mind...

Both Jitsu and Adel still seem very scummy.

And then Jitsu and Adel suddenly become scummy also.

So let's count: 1 - Opie and Jitsu. 2 - Opie and Matt_S with Incognito a third possibility. 3 - Incognito more definitive. 4 - Jitsu and Adel.

That's the five players that I mentioned in my post. I'm not talking about your current stance on players; I'm talking about the stances you've taken on players

after

they've voiced their negative opinions about you.

[Guardian]

Hm, so me having two posts about you, commenting in 2) on a specific outline by Adel, and in 3) by a tell I've seen work before -- are construed as me finding you scummy?

By that same standard, I'd be surprised if there are many players in the game I haven't "found scummy".

However, your whole post could have just been

I'm not talking about your current stance on players; I'm talking about the stances you've taken on players after they've voiced their negative opinions about you.

That I actually agree with, with the exception of my suspicion of you, and of Matt_S (I really can't recall Matt_S being suspicious of me, though he may have been) -- prima facia, everyone's suspicions of me, besides yours, seemed like bullshit. And I'm going to find people scummy for bullshit logic in mafia, whether they're trying to railroad me, or anyone.

opie's vote of me was for trying to get the game going, and Adel & Jitsu's vote for me were for reacting scummily to a probe designed to incite scummy reacions. Adel had 180 degree switched from saying I was def town to prob scum.

I later changed my mind -- I can see how Adel & Jitsu may have a point. But all three of them, at first glance, seemed like bullshit. And I found that scummy.

[Erg0]

Tum te tum.

Xyl: Can you please explain your vote on opie a little more? The last time you mentioned him you didn't seem to find him particularly suspicious, so your recent vote looks pretty wagonny.

[Xylthixlm]

Guardian reads mildly protown to me. opie, not so much - his signal to noise ratio is too low.

Since I've generally thought of you as town, I'm interested in your opinions. I'm wondering why Guardian is reading pro-town to you -- the last I remember he was coming up neutral to you. Also, is there any other reason (besides signal-to-noise ratio) why Opie is reading less town to you?

Guardian's recent posts seem to be moving the game forward - he gives opinions, looks for scummy people, and picks out significant points of other people's posts. This post and this post both give me a good feeling about him. I think he's more likely than average to be town.

As for opie, I can't figure out what his opinions are from a casual read. He types a lot that looks important, but by the time I get to the end of the paragraph I'm not sure what his point was. That makes me nervous.

[Xylthixlm]

Tum te tum.

Xyl: Can you please explain your vote on opie a little more? The last time you mentioned him you didn't seem to find him particularly suspicious, so your recent vote looks pretty wagonny.

It is wagonny. I'm trying to deflect the lynch away from Guardian, who I think is more pro-town.

[Oman]

I approve of the Opie wagon.

[Erg0]

That's hardly surprising, given that you're on it.

[Oman]

I'm the first.

No lip from you or I won't "happy scumday" you tomorrow.

[opie]

I believe that Adel's vote puts me at L-1.

I am a townie, I have no special abilities.

And for the record my vote for Guardian is not simply a hold over from earlier in the game. My vote has remained for you response and you game play this whole day. Reasons that have already been articulated by Incognito and others. I have stood in support of these arguments but did not feel a "me too" post would have been much of a contribution. And I continue to feel that he is the best lynch candidate today.

[Guardian]

I wouldn't have believed a power role... I like 80% don't believe this.

Does anyone want to try and find a new lynch in under a week? I'm going to re-read and see, but I highly doubt it.

[Jitsu]

I've done a reread, focusing on Opie.

I still agree with Adel's initial point against him, namely his overreaching from Guardian onto Adel and Oman. In mid-day, he wasn't around a lot (mostly due to V/LA, I guess). I didn't think his questions were particularly effective in midday, but I also think several people had pegged him as scum by then though and seemed unwilling to entertain his questions seriously because they didn't believe him.

In the later part of the day, he still didn't post an awful lot, even though there was a lot of content Guardian (his prime suspect) exchanged with the other players. Some analysis and some back and forth with Guardian as of late though. I'm a bit concerned why he hasn't posted much lately (after his V/LA), and I think he should have been taking the votes against him more seriously. Also, there was something I didn't like about his 184, in response to Adel's case. He does summarize her points fairly well, but even though what he said about Adel's case is correct, he doesn't seem to ever explain/address the assertion that Adel's central point against him (overreaching from his vote on Guardian to FOSes on Oman and Adel).

Still though, I also think that Guardian is scum, so I have to ask myself if it makes sense that Opie bussed Guardian all day without ever switching to another candidate. With how early he started bussing, and with all of the potential lynch candidates for Opie to hang a vote on, I have to lean toward it being somewhat unlikely. I have asked several people now why they think Opie is so scummy, and most of it has been a rehash of earlier stuff. I have not heard any attempt to make a strongly worded case against Opie since Adel's 136.

People say that he is a great candidate and some seem pretty sure he is scum, but I've yet to hear something really compelling. I agree with some of the points against Opie, and while I think it's possible he could be scum because of them, but I just can't find the smoking gun on him. I very well could be missing something, but I still can't help but wonder if people were THAT sold on Opie then why aren't they trying to sell his lynch to the other townies better by presenting a strong case on him?

I think Guardian really blundered in response to the "Adel knowing he's town bit", and his reactions afterward made me pretty sure that he is scum. I just got the impression after my 407 that Guardian was desperately trying to find some way out of the lynch by attacking and defending various people and looking for a place to hang a vote somewhere to get out of the spotlight. I think a townie would not have accused Adel of knowing too much and then not follow through with it. I also think he as townie, would have owned up to the mistake and apologized sooner without trying to deny what happened or spread the blame around to cover his own mistake.

Guardian is my top suspect, and his 498 sounds like a poor attempt to not be caught on the Opie wagon if he comes up innocent. Guardian wouldn't have believed a power role, and he 80% doesn't believe vanilla townie? What the hell? What was there left for Opie to say? What *would* you have believed, Guardian?

ChaosOmega is my next best suspect. He's lurked for most of Day 1, dropped a vote on Opie without explaning why, and even now, he's still has not given a real reason for it. When asked about it previously, his reasons were very weak, and when asked to explain them further, his response in 318 is to say he "hasn't liked the tone" of Opie's posts. Then in 420, he has what seems like much stronger criticism on Guardian, saying "your past couple posts have been terrible", which were ChaosOmega's stronges comments of the entire game so far. He says "I'm keeping my vote where it is, but I'm more suspicious of Guardian [than I was before, according to a later clarification]. You've just made a lot of posts that strike me the wrong way." Then in 450, in response to my question, he says that he is more confident in Opie being scum than Guardian, without explaining why. Frankly, I'm tired of his votes without any reason and what seems like a really poor attempt at distancing from Guardian in 420.

I will echo my comments from before. I am pretty happy right now with my vote on Guardian. If people want me to change my vote to Opie, I need to hear a convincing case to that effect.