Mini 536: Heroes Smalltown. Game Over!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

DGb is right. Your thinking here is too convoluted, shaft.ed.

My take: ZA was under lotsa suspicion and the scum took advantage of that. It does make it somewhat more likely that Fonz and/or Yvonne are scum(as it makes it a less risky enterprise for the scum), but not by much.

Now, back to no-lynch. I should have posted yesterday, but I am incredibly lazy on occasion and this was one of those occasions.

I think we can all agree the next lynch is pretty dang important. Yet there certainly doesn't exist a town consensus as to who's scum. I'd say it's fair to call this town conflicted. This is not a good moment for the town to be conflicted. I think this is strongly related to the lack of dead scum and obviously town people. That's why I strongly feel that the odds of mislynching today are significantly higher today than they'll be on any day to come. And I think we can up the chance of lynching correctly by about 10% if we no-lynch. And I hope the town'll be able to pull it together once we've caught one scum.

I consider the next day the major bottleneck in the road to victory. And I would prefer widening that bottleneck.

[cicero]

That didnt actually answer my question. It's because you think it's obvious. You, I think, are pointing out that with one less townie the percentage of the town that is scum goes from 37.5% to 42.8% of town. Correspondingly this gives townies a 5.3% greater "surface area" of scum to hit?

But this fails to take into account the fact that with one less townie it becomes that much easier for scum to lead the lynch. Townies essentially need to be unanimously correct to lynch scum. Scum just need to figure out the one townie that will be easy to trick into joining their chosen mislynch wagon.

I do not see how this provides a net benefit for the town.

Discuss.

[DrippingGoofball]

Discuss.

Agreed.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That didnt actually answer my question. It's because you think it's obvious. You, I think, are pointing out that with one less townie the percentage of the town that is scum goes from 37.5% to 42.8% of town.

You think wrong. I do not expect scum to kill someone we would otherwise lynch, so that's not a particularly important effect. I think we can do 10% better simply by virtue of the extra information. As is, I feel lots of leads and clues, but no coherent case. I think there's a real chance an extra night might get us over the "hump" and give us a solid lynch.

But this fails to take into account the fact that with one less townie it becomes that much easier for scum to lead the lynch. Townies essentially need to be unanimously correct to lynch scum. Scum just need to figure out the one townie that will be easy to trick into joining their chosen mislynch wagon.

Scum can't really afford to band together though, so I would consider this an insignificant effect too.

[curiouskarmadog]

OK have a bit of time to address this thread…christ..got to go back to page 47 to get caught up…if this post gets too long, I will break it up.

You just reversed the bet. Gonna have to go for a double humiliation. Sure. I'm up for it. I bet you're scum and you bet I'm scum. Are you willing to bet that I'm scum? I asked you first and you switched it. So what are the stakes, big guy?

Fine I will take the bet. If I come up town, you have to post in the GD, that “CKD is the most superior scum hunter and mafia player known to this site and I bow at his feet”. The title of the thread should be something like “bet” And that is it, nothing more. If you come up town, I will do the same (except put your name instead of mine)…if for some reason we are both town in this game, we should be ashamed of ourselves, but the bet is nullified. Please don’t try to be sneaky. Post exactly what is indicated. I realize this bet is slightly immature and when you have to post it we will both probably be mercilessly trolled. But hey, that is how it goes I guess…agreed?

I think cicero is likely town. There's absolutely no reason for him to be scum and prevent a mislynch today by defending me, especially since I was the easiest target and we are in some sort of potential lylo.

First of all he did vote you today, second of all, this post is crap if you are scum together.

According to that kind of logic, we shouldn't lynch CKD and Fonz since they can stop NKs and cicero has two confirmed night actions.

I understand this was just an example, but not only can I stop a NK I also have two confirmed night actions. While fonz can prevent a NK and Cicero as one confirmed night action and an action confirmed by shafted, I have both. I am not in the same category. I am not the play today…it seems painfully obvious to me (of course it is my next in the noose).

So I don't understand why CKD thought it was a good idea.

already explained it.

But overall, if I were to place bets, I think he's more likely to be town than scum though he's awfully stubborn and refuses to see things from another point of view. It's almost as if he thinks anyone who disagrees with him is scum and he's also terribly afraid of players whom he claims are trying to direct him.

Fuck, I have to agree with this statement. This game (especially today) I have thought that almost everyone could be scum at one point or another. Usually at this point in a game, I have a feeling that someone might be town. I was leaning toward Shea/CEG, shafted, and DGB being town, but I don’t understand why DGB targeted Shea (there wasn’t a point) and CEG has his vote on me (and I am sort of confused why, but that could be OMGUS setting in). Shafted, has been one of the only people who has (slightly agreed with me)..but it is common scum practice to have at least one scum play opposites to the others. At this point I am down right paranoid.

-----
Interesting conversation between Cicero and shafted about their night conversation (page 48). Cicero trying to make shafted look bad referencing mathcam, but shafted misrepresented me later by saying I was avoiding the thread…guess it is Karma…both are scummy actions…again paranoia.

Glad Yvonne is participating now. The fact that Yvonne did help lynch Gorgon has no indication of her alignment. What bothered me was the fact she tried to (along with Adele) suggest that I continue jailing him, thus keeping me busy. That set off alarms!

In short, it looks like one must at least accept that what was being articulated was based on fear of mislynch without realising the implications of tying up a jailkeeper. At that point in time, we were 50/50 on Gorgon and Yvonne piped up with an off the cuff suggestion of how we might become more sure.

You are suggesting that the odds are stacked against the town and it looks townie for Yvonne to not want to lynch quickly. Well if you are going to defend her using that argument, why did she so hastily jump on the Oman wagon (a wagon you were the last vote on). Yvonne, feel free to jump in on this question too.


Cutting this post…another one coming.

[curiouskarmadog]

Unvote, vote: ckd

, 'cause I'm realizing I'd be voting for ckd come 'morrow if we no-lynch anyhow. I still think no-lynch is generally speaking a good idea here.

silly reason vote to jump on a bandwagon, what if I were to turn up dead tomorrow? You dont know what could have occured and you dont seem to be factoring in the claims tomorrow either...to say you are voting me now, because you will probably be voting me tomorrow, seems very short sighted. so, you got to have a better reason.


Adele’s vote and lack of reasoning is not surprised, 2 votes little reasons, so I get this straight, everyone knows we could be in a LYLO situation now right? If you think I am scum, you should be at least putting forth reasons why to help the town come to your same conclusion. Shouldnt you actually be, I don’t know, trying to scum hunt?



I think what is bothering me about Cicero and Yvonne right now, is the fact that Cicero is really going out on a ledge of Yvonne (someone who he did vote early in the day). At this point in the game, I am super paranoid of everyone and cant say I would say anyone was absolutely town. This bothers me.

Cicero’s vote on DGB was not expected, but again he strengthens that link between he and Yvonne.

I anyone going to address the whole cicero defended yvonne issue btw?

Man I brought this but days ago. The fact that he is defending her so at this point means one of 3 things. 1.) they are both scum together, trying to defend each other and each other’s actions (strength in numbers) 2.) Cicero is town, and is way too over confident in his town reads (note that Yvonne’s alignment doesn’t really matter here) 3.) Cicero is scum, and knows that Yvonne is town...ugh, that means that Yvonne would be town, which means I was off on my reads for the past 2 game days.

3 to me sounds like the most likely option…so, I guess that means my vote will stay where it is…(got to finishing reading though).

So if I was scum and wanted to go with the flow wagon, I would have picked Yvonne in a heartbeat.

unless she was (fill in the blank).

I've already stated I had no confirmation that Adele was blocked. I made this statement after cirero said he couldn't talk to Adele. I didn't think cicero could have been jailed because I was able to chat freely with him at night. Therefore my knowledge of Adele's jailing was purely from my interactions with cicero and had no bearing of my targeting Adele.

Actually this brings up a question I haven’t even thought about.

Mod: can someone jailed still talk at night if they have the ability to do so? If not, at what point are the stopped from talking?

Shaft.ed, I'll be able to talk to you if I'm in jail. I mentioned that already.

ok nevermind

DGB your case was based largely on Mathcam ties.

Also meta Yvonne. She rarely votes, it's not really a useful tell in regards to her play re the Gorgon lynch.

tell that to poor Oman

DGb is right. Your thinking here is too convoluted, shaft.ed.

My take: ZA was under lotsa suspicion and the scum took advantage of that. It does make it somewhat more likely that Fonz and/or Yvonne are scum(as it makes it a less risky enterprise for the scum), but not by much.

Now, back to no-lynch. I should have posted yesterday, but I am incredibly lazy on occasion and this was one of those occasions.

I think we can all agree the next lynch is pretty dang important. Yet there certainly doesn't exist a town consensus as to who's scum. I'd say it's fair to call this town conflicted. This is not a good moment for the town to be conflicted. I think this is strongly related to the lack of dead scum and obviously town people. That's why I strongly feel that the odds of mislynching today are significantly higher today than they'll be on any day to come. And I think we can up the chance of lynching correctly by about 10% if we no-lynch. And I hope the town'll be able to pull it together once we've caught one scum.

I consider the next day the major bottleneck in the road to victory. And I would prefer widening that bottleneck.

I am sorry, where is your vote again? And why?

[YvonneSeer]

Well if you are going to defend her using that argument, why did she so hastily jump on the Oman wagon (a wagon you were the last vote on). Yvonne, feel free to jump in on this question too.

How was I hasty on Oman's wagon? I was the first vote if I remember correctly.

[curiouskarmadog]

do you know what hasty means?

[YvonneSeer]

Apparently not. Kindly explain please.

[curiouskarmadog]

hasty= impatient; impetuous; thoughtless; injudicious; unduly quick; precipitate; rash

Cicero impies that you could be townish by not wanting to jump on the Gorgon wagon so quickly, if you want to use that defense, please explain the hasty Oman vote.

[Seol]

Mod: can someone jailed still talk at night if they have the ability to do so? If not, at what point are the stopped from talking?

For clarification - jailing prevents nightchoices. Night talk, where permitted, is not a night choice, and as such jailing has no effect on a player's ability to night talk.

[Seol]

vote count:

curiouskarmadog: 2 (cogito ergo sum, adele)
drippinggoofball: 2 (yvonneseer, cicero)
yvonneseer: 2 (drippinggoofball, the fonz)
cicero: 1 (curiouskarmadog)

not voting: shaft.ed

five to lynch, which means you're miles from a lynch.

[cicero]

I think what is bothering me about Cicero and Yvonne right now, is the fact that Cicero is really going out on a ledge of Yvonne (someone who he did vote early in the day). At this point in the game, I am super paranoid of everyone and cant say I would say anyone was absolutely town. This bothers me.

Cicero’s vote on DGB was not expected, but again he strengthens that link between he and Yvonne.

I may yet vote her again before this game or even day ends. I like her answers but she absolutely refuses to play offense which I take as a major scumtell. She makes a reasonable case against DGB but has no interest in following it up. She's playing to survive not win, and I hate that. She also has a tendency, I think, to just parrot Adele.

I'm in the middle of yet another re-read from the start. This inevitably changes my opinion but we'll see where I come out at the other end. Adele, similarly writes very good posts with excellent tactical advice in them, which I like, but doesnt aggressively pursue anything. I found the way she jumped on the CKD wagon after being so blaze about it out of the gate rather telling. Remember, in my mind I made CKD an easier wagon, and once it seemed like she could ride my efforts to a lynch on she climbed.

Fonz has also been interesting. I'm fairly convinced of his scumminess at the moment, pending a re-read. He got more active once I accused him of playing careful and he has those +2 scum points I mentioned before. He's also free to be the shooter.

CKD though, you aren't forgotten. Your passion says townie to me but your choices and (imho) hypocrisy say scum.

Shaft.ed feels town to me but since I don't trust my gut I'll be reading him even more carefully. He did include Mathcam in his suggestions to me to target but if I couple that with the fact that he can sometimes be less than careful (evidence at beginning of the game) it might just be that he hadnt figured out that the low value players were the ones most likely to get hit last night. But I figured that out so why didnt he?

DGB's pursuit of Yvonne and insistence that her case stood when it had already been blown apart would doom any player that wasnt named DGB. The Gorgon remnants dont feel real to me.

So, CKD, if you're town and feeling paranoid, I can't really blame you.

As for me if you want to meta me buddying up to scum as town, check out Mini 499 and my play with a guy named Pwayne vs. Skruffs. I've definitely been fooled before. I'm not perfect. But personally, I thought the town ignoring what you did at night, and sleepwalking to an Yvonne lynch with no discussion at all, was a serious problem. I'm also naturally contrarian. It's a curse. So I shoved my fist down your throat for a while. Now I need to go back and figure out what I believe after la deluge. Everyone else should too.

Oh and CES, you seem town... which is making me stare even harder to make sure I'm not getting tricked. TSQ really seemed pissed at Zoneace, but so what. I'm still not convinced on the No Lynch wisdom and I had expected a more robust response on the subject, really.

[Adele]

you're miles from a lynch.

Oh joy.

That didnt actually answer my question. It's because you think it's obvious. You, I think, are pointing out that with one less townie the percentage of the town that is scum goes from 37.5% to 42.8% of town.

You think wrong. I do not expect scum to kill someone we would otherwise lynch, so that's not a particularly important effect. I think we can do 10% better simply by virtue of the extra information. As is, I feel lots of leads and clues, but no coherent case. I think there's a real chance an extra night might get us over the "hump" and give us a solid lynch.

But this fails to take into account the fact that with one less townie it becomes that much easier for scum to lead the lynch. Townies essentially need to be unanimously correct to lynch scum. Scum just need to figure out the one townie that will be easy to trick into joining their chosen mislynch wagon.

Scum can't really afford to band together though, so I would consider this an insignificant effect too.

I disagree with both of these claims. When 3/7ths of the players are scum, they can influence the wagons much more effectively - perhaps by banding together, but potentially by playing the politics. Can you tell one from the other? Cicero's convinced me, and I'm against a no-lynch today. While I still believe that CKD is the pick for today, I'd support a lynch on DGB or Yvonne over a no-lynch.

[shaft.ed]

I'd support a lynch on DGB

Forgive me if I missed it, but have you mentioned suspicions of DGB prior to this?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Can you tell one from the other?

Yes.

Also: this is an useless argument.

[Adele]

I'd support a lynch on DGB

Forgive me if I missed it, but have you mentioned suspicions of DGB prior to this?

I'd support a lynch on DGB over no-lynching, as an act of relative desperation. I don't think it's likely that she's scum, but I consider the town odds being better with a 30% lynch on DGB today than a more scum-lead lynch tomorrow following a no-lynch, since if DGB is scum we'll have that data to work from.

right now I'm CKD>Yvonne>DGB, with everyone else just looking vanishingly unlikely.

[Adele]

Can you tell one from the other?

Yes.

Also: this is an useless argument.

My point is, you can't point tomorrow to 3 people saying "X is scum" to those 3 being scum, as they may be the few townies pushing for actual scum or the last townie, or could be part-town part-politicking-scum, or could in fact be the three scum pushing a wagon on a townie. So I find the claim that "scum can't really afford to band together though" to not be true, as there's camouflage aplenty for them to potentially do just that.

[curiouskarmadog]

I'd support a lynch on DGB

Forgive me if I missed it, but have you mentioned suspicions of DGB prior to this?

I'd support a lynch on DGB over no-lynching, as an act of relative desperation. I don't think it's likely that she's scum, but I consider the town odds being better with a 30% lynch on DGB today than a more scum-lead lynch tomorrow following a no-lynch, since if DGB is scum we'll have that data to work from.

so then the answer to shafted's question was "no, you havent mentioned suspicions of DGB prior to this"..you seemed to avoid his direct question.

[curiouskarmadog]

and instead of saying you would support my,yvonne's, or dgb's lynch over a no lynch..what you are really saying is your would support anyone's lynch (other than yourself) over a no lynch..right?

[shaft.ed]

Hmm I find it interesting that Adele's list contains the two popular bandwagons with the third most recent movement towards a lynch, and that DGB has been the next closest thing to a bandwagon we have had today. Will reread Adele to see if she was purposefully avoiding my question or if she has in fact cast suspicion on DGB prior.

[cicero]

Is Adele generally this obvious as scum? Anyone got a meta?

[Adele]

Not necessarily

anyone's

; I've been suspicious of you and Yvonne for a while and have always found DGB unreadable (rather, she always looks scummy as Hell to me, and I tend to avoid playing with her for that reason - so you can imagine how chuffed I was when she replaced into a game I'd already committed to), so I could live with that better than a no-lynch too. I'm not on board for a cicero-lynch, though; nor shafted. I'd take some convincing on CES or Fonz, though my opinions on both are relatively unformed at this time.

Hmm I find it interesting that Adele's list contains the two popular bandwagons with the third most recent movement towards a lynch, and that DGB has been the next closest thing to a bandwagon we have had today. Will reread Adele to see if she was purposefully avoiding my question or if she has in fact cast suspicion on DGB prior.

Apologies. No, I have not "cast suspicion" on her. I certainly

could

, if you wanted me to. However, I could just as easily in any of her games you could point me to, including those where she is town. To my eyes, she

is

sheer undiluted scummyness, and she thusly maketh my scumdar impotent with rage. In this game, I've been trying to not let her draw me in too much; where she's illogical, I sit back, roll my eyes, mutter "DGB", and get on with my life.

And, yeah, shocker, I find the two scummiest players scummy. I don't know offhand if I was a leader on these wagons or not, but I don't see their position as vote-leaders as being causational on my suspicion of them; rather, I credit the absurd behaviours they've been showing yesterday and today (well, last night and today for CKD).

Is Adele generally this obvious as scum? Anyone got a meta?

I...
Wait, that doesn't even make sense. If I weren't usually scummy-looking when scum, and you think I'm scummy-looking now, would you therefore assume I'm not scum because when I'm scum I don't look so scummy? Because that's wifom.

/sigh... see, that's why I don't want to engage DGB. Because when what makes sense damages me, I still want to say it.

[shaft.ed]

Sorry Adele that is not going to cut it. You haven't said a single word about DGB all day. Yet you claim that you always think she is scummy. WHy on earth would you want to lynch someone for which your scumdar doesn't work when you must lynch correctly? This makes no sense. Add in you flipping back and forth between Yvonne and CKD at the whim of the town today, your stating that since CKD is only at L-3 it's "safe" to vote for him, and your unexplained Gorgon hammer. I think you warrant a vote.

vote: Adele

[Adele]

Sorry Adele that is not going to cut it. You haven't said a single word about DGB all day. Yet you claim that you always think she is scummy. WHy on earth would you want to lynch someone for which your scumdar doesn't work when you must lynch correctly? This makes no sense. Add in you flipping back and forth between Yvonne and CKD at the whim of the town today, your stating that since CKD is only at L-3 it's "safe" to vote for him, and your unexplained Gorgon hammer. I think you warrant a vote.

vote: Adele

que?

OK, in reverse order:

Gorgon had a 50-50 chance of being the SK, so he was the right pick for D1. Hence the hammer, and hence his actually being the SK. Yay mathcam and so forth.

It

is

"safe" to vote someone at L-3, in that they are not in imminent danger of quicklynch.

I have not been flipping back and forth at the whim of the town. There are fairly solid arguments against both and I've said for a long time that I do think they are both scum. I've tended to vote the one that's been acting slightly scummier in recent posts, the one that I think is more likely scum, but since I think they're both scum anyway (and have been perfectly upfront about this) I am willing at this point to go with either over a no-lynch that'll likely put us in a slightly worse position tomorrow morning than we're in today.

If our next lynch victim is town we're likely done for

no matter what

. We're in a tough spot. We have to do what we can to maximise our chances, and that might involve lynching someone you find it difficult to read, because what's the alternative, giving them a free card? Yes, she seems scummy

to me

. But, since I have an imperfect scumdar on her (for example, pursuing people after her arguments against them have been refuted is something she'll happily do as town), I'm disregarding my scumdar to some extent, and not getting into the argument.

I've been there

. I've spent weeks of my life arguing back and forth with her, tearing my hair out and not helping the town at all. If it's between lynching her and no-lynching, yeah, I choose lynching her. That's where I think the best odds lie.
And if you don't believe that I always find her scummy... I'm sure there are several players here, including DGB, who can back me up on that. I think I called her my "nemesis" at one point in GD.

I think each of the points that you raise is significantly flawed.