Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Mr Stoofer]

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

--

[col]

Ectomancer

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
springlullaby
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Nocmen
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro
Yosarian2

[col]

Nocmen

Shy Guy
opie
Sarcastro
Oman
Thesp
Skruffs
Max
Yosarian2
VanDamien
andersonw
Ectomancer

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Skruffs
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

--

[col]

Sarcastro

--

[col]

Shy Guy

VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Max
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Skruffs

[col]

Skruffs

Shy Guy
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Ectomancer
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
Max
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro

[col]

Thesp

Max
Yosarian2
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Shy Guy

[col]

VanDamian

Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

opie
VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Note:

• Everyone must post a ballot by
  9am GMT Monday 25th February
  .
  
  
• Day 0 will end between
  Monday 3rd March
  and
  Friday 14th March
  .
  
  
• I will simulate a day or two of voting once everyone has posted a ballot

[Max]

Scum points: (Everyone starts at 5 good townish vibes lower points Bad vibes increase points)

Nocmen - 8
Ectomancer - 7
Shy Guy - 6
andersonw - 6
Yosarian2 - 5 - Moved don't have a clue what I was thinking when I put him at 3
Oman - 5
Thesp - 5
springlullaby - 5
VanDamien - 5
opie - 4
Sarcastro - 3

Since Post 80 Opinions

Nocmen - 8

Post 83 - Says votes were alphabetical (I felt stupid) - -2
Post 87 - Gave some good comments - -1
Post 112 - Agrees with Oman - 0
Post 122 - defends self
Posts 141&142 - Posts new ballot and gives reason - -1

Nocmen now 4

Going to have to do rest tommorow. Got to go

[opie]

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Oman
Skruffs
Sarcastro
VanDamien
Thesp
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[opie]

My top vote is for Ectomancer because as I did a read through, I found my self disagreeing with him the most. I employed a similar strategy that Max adopted. Ectomancer had the fewest points. A few things I noted were: Post 30, when he wanted to know the link between Max and Sarcastro followed by his response to Nocmen in Post 36; Post 91 was a big one, his pledge of Yosarian2 before evening seeing his ballot struck me odd, followed by his cut and paste of Yosarian2's ballot once it was posted; Post 94, I didn't like the logic or the tone.
Nocmen is next on my ballot for his early, I play this game serious posture; Post 47 also struck me odd.

Oman is next because first he felt that Yosarian was town, then was concerned when everyone else thought so too.

I will say that Oman comes in a distant third, but someone had to take that spot.

Addressing my Bottom 3: I found myself agreeing the most with Shy Guy, Yosarian, and Max more often than any other. They seem to me the most active sincere scum hunters.

[Nocmen]

Uh...I just hope that you meant to do the exact opposite of what Max employed, as Max is going about with most points as scum, and the fewest points are at the bottom of his ballot.

Also...someone is scum just because you disagree with them? And you trust the others because you agree with them? That strikes me as pretty awkward, and there have been plenty of times and things you can agree with scum on and disagree with other townies.

Finally, you have anything to say about the middle of your ballots? Personally...I feel this middle ground will have the most influence on deciding who wins, as the first few players will be pretty much preselected by the ballots, and there will probably be at least one person who is in almost everyone's bottom 2-3.

[opie]

Nocmen, I few thought before I have to run:

First, what I did was add points for pro-town subtract for scum. This may be opposite to Max, but similar in the sense of points.

Second, I do not think if I disagree with someone they are scum. I think that is an easy trap to fall into. For example if you compare my ballots with, Yosarian2, Shy Guy and Max, you see that I disagree with them quite a bit.

Third, I do have something to say about the others, however I wanted to get a ballot posted and I did not just want to post a ballot without any explanation and I need to leave. So I covered my top three and bottom three. Plus I may re-arrange the middle slightly. The problem with the point system is that it doesn't effectively take into account inactivity. So, often it seems that the most active are the most penalized and most rewarded.

[Ectomancer]

Oh opie, you really cant refute that by my logic, I am doing the best I can to ensure that a townie controls the lynch order as much as possible. Random selection chose Yosarian. I'm not changing my mind. My vote will be changing to match Yosarian's (with his name added and not mine) only when he changes it.
This effectively grants Yosarian the privilege of a double ballot.
Yosarian ended up on your high town list.
If you disagree with those you regard most as town, whose opinion do you believe to be faulty in those matters? Which of you should revise their list to ensure a good lynch?

[Shy Guy]

Max has still not told me what "newbie mistakes" I have made. I would very much like to hear from him to validate that he is not accusing me of making "newbie mistakes" just to cast suspicion on me without reasoning.

I find Sarcastro's discussion of Yosarian2 and Ectomancer to make some sense. I'd like to see his more holistic discussion of the players, though.

Nocmen, why am I at the top of your ballot?

opie continues to make sense, and seem fairly to very townlike.

In general, I like Thesp's entrance post, and buy his excuse. My condolences, sir. However: why is VanDamien a good guy? I want to hear more from Thesp so I can judge him better.

andersonw doesn't seem scummy, but not particularly townie either.

I find it interesting that Sarcastro and Oman are now suspicious of Yosarian2 (Skruffs too? I can't tell); I was early when everyone was finding him townlike, because there was no justification for him being found townlike. These two(three?), however, don't seem to be disturbed by the lack of justification; they are disturbed solely because he is being found townlike. Sarcastro has a substantive point here, but I don't understand where Oman (and Skruffs?) are coming from.

Skruffs not having posted since his first post is annoying; I found his predecessor's exit very townlike, but as of yet Skruffs is completely indecipherable, and that is not a good thing. I'm going to keep him on the bottom for now, but I really want to hear from him.

Code: Select all

VanDamien
Oman
Max
Nocmen
andersonw
Thesp
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Yosarian2
Skruffs

It is hard to post short posts when the whole game and all analysis of all players takes place in just a few weeks!
Next I am going to write a post about why we need consensus.

[Shy Guy]

[col]

1

9
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
(1)

[col]

2

9
8
1
3
4
5
6
7
(2)

[col]

3

9
8
1
2
4
5
6
7
(3)

[col]

4

1
2
3
5
6
7
8
9
(4)

[col]

5

1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
(5)

[col]

6

2
3
1
4
5
7
8
9
(6)

[col]

7

2
3
1
4
5
6
8
9
(7)

[col]

8

3
1
2
4
5
6
7
9
(8)

[col]

9

3
1
2
4
5
6
7
8
(9)

The above table is a sample where the town (1,2,7 are scum, 3,4,5,6,8,9 are townies) mostly has consensus, but disagrees on the ordering of 1,2 and 3. Every townie except 3 finds 8 and 9 by far the least suspicious and 1, 2, and 3 very scummy.

But, they disagree on the ordering. So, instead of 1,2, and 3 being lynched first, 8 and 9 are!

The scum, by managing to have very minimally coordinated ordering differing from the overwhelming town opinion, eliminated the most "obvious" townies, and allowed 7 to win the game for the scum. Had the townies planned well and gotten consensus, 1,2,3 could have been lynched in order, and 7 would have been lynched just in time for a win!

So, if the scum just have a wee little bit of planning to differentiate from the town's slight disorganization (which presumably would be easy for them to do, since they can talk during the whole game!), and the town is not perfectly organized, then the scum can easily eliminate a few key townies, allowing someone in the scum group to coast by.



The pledging system is not ideal, and I am not sure what is, but I think that consensus is extremely necessary to prevent the above kind of scenario from happening.

[Nocmen]

ShyGuy, you are at the top of my ballot for two reasons:
1. From your posts I can tell you have some experience playing Mafia. However, you seem to be using some form of time restraint/newbieness towards your advantage.
2. You seem to be pressuring saying everything needs to be done your way. This is a 12 person set up, meaning that there needs to be at least 2 townies also in order for a 3-way tie to screw up. Nice use of fearmongering though.
3. You say that you are very concerned by everyone expressing town reads of Yos, while at the same time you yourself keep him second last on your ballot.

[andersonw]

ShyGuy, you are at the top of my ballot for two reasons:
1. From your posts I can tell you have some experience playing Mafia. However, you seem to be using some form of time restraint/newbieness towards your advantage.
2. You seem to be pressuring saying everything needs to be done your way. This is a 12 person set up, meaning that there needs to be at least 2 townies also in order for a 3-way tie to screw up. Nice use of fearmongering though.
3. You say that you are very concerned by everyone expressing town reads of Yos, while at the same time you yourself keep him second last on your ballot.

Two reasons? That doesn't look like 2 to me.

Anyway, here's my ballot. Explanation to follow.

Code: Select all

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[Max]

Shy Guy in you example infact

1st is 1
2nd is 2
3rd is 3
4th is 4
5th is 5
6th is 6
7th is 7

So town wins

For that post my rearrangement is as follows

Code: Select all

Shy Guy
Ectomancer
Thesp
Yosarian2
Oman
VanDamien
andersonw
Skruffs
Nocmen
opie
Sarcastro

In a second I'm going to find out who'd lynched in what order

[Mr Stoofer]

.........

REMINDER

....

Anyone who has not posted
a ballot by 9am GMT Monday
25th February will be replaced

(That means you, Sarcastro).

[Skruffs]

apologies for the delays here, fellas, I replaced in out of gratitude towards stoofer for letting me play in pirates vs ninjas which is at the moment a much mroe dynamic game.

I need to update my voting ballot, etc. I will , too. Workign outside restricts what i can post in this gmae (cuz i'm using my cell while outside) so i am more reluctant yo post to this game. should be changing soon though.


i will post to this game officially sometime after lunch today.

[Thesp]

It feels like I'm about to get lynched here just because a few people thought I looked pro-town early on, and that's basically insane.

I understand why you might feel that way reading over responses so far, but it seemed to me that during significant conversations between several players, you chose to focus (largely to the exclusion of others) on a conversation with Shy Guy which I thought didn't really say much of anything significant. I thought you were deliberately avoiding interaction with other players.

Random selection chose Yosarian. I'm not changing my mind. My vote will be changing to match Yosarian's (with his name added and not mine) only when he changes it.

I'm not sure that playing by way of dice is very wise or helpful. Not only is there a >25% chance of him being scum (from your position, giving scum

4 ballots

, which likely outright loses us the game), there's also the possibility that he could be incorrect (sorry Yosarian2), and there's also the fact that your actions here (in-?)deliberately obfuscate your own motives, making it more difficult for your alignment to be discerned, which is anti-town if you are town (you want to be divined as town), and anti-town if you are scum (it makes it hard for us to find you as scum).

However: why is VanDamien a good guy

I think his attempts to break the game are genuine. His "find pro-town players" strategy he proposed resonates strongly with the theory I had coming into the game, which I think is the optimal strategy, and thought it would be more likely to be proposed by town.

[Ectomancer]

Random selection chose Yosarian. I'm not changing my mind. My vote will be changing to match Yosarian's (with his name added and not mine) only when he changes it.

I'm not sure that playing by way of dice is very wise or helpful. Not only is there a >25% chance of him being scum (from your position, giving scum

4 ballots

, which likely outright loses us the game), there's also the possibility that he could be incorrect (sorry Yosarian2), and there's also the fact that your actions here (in-?)deliberately obfuscate your own motives, making it more difficult for your alignment to be discerned, which is anti-town if you are town (you want to be divined as town), and anti-town if you are scum (it makes it hard for us to find you as scum).

It's an unusual setup and this is the way I chose to play. Taking the inverse of your probability, I have a > 74% chance of him being town. That gives town a stronger position to work from, and those are pretty good odds. I would go all in in poker every time with those odds.
As for Yosarian possibly being incorrect...and I am more of an expert at picking scum, how? This argument would only hold water if you believe that I am a better scum picker. Otherwise, at worst it is a wash, and right or wrong, I'd prefer town all be pulling in the same direction.
As for my alignment, and how town feels about it, I don't care about that either. My only goal is to have the bottom 2 players be town. That's it. I can be lynched along the way and it makes little difference.
As for town gathering my opinions, I provided my list prior to Yosarian posting his, and so have given an isolated opinion. I am still reading everyone else and will be attempting to sway the balloting according to my opinion, but if I hope to change my own ballot, I will have to convince Yosarian2 as to the wisdom of my words.
I dont plan to obfescute anything. If you would like my opinion on someone or something, I am more than happy to answer a direct question. I'll give unsolicited opinions, rest assured. If I see bullshit, Im calling it.

[opie]

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
ShyGuy

I moved Sarcastro up to third. I reviewed his posts and found them to be a bit lacking in attempts to hunt for scum. He's posted enough to stay active but little to pressure anyone.
Skruffs through Thesp are all pretty close to me. I have them all in a neutral category, so its little things that dictated their place order. I put Skruffs the highest because of Post 134. I don't like his reasoning there. Van Damien I'm the most neautral towards, so he get the middle spot. I put Thesp slightly ahead of andersonw because I've like what he's had to say since replacing in.

Shy Guy, I must admit, I'm a little more than confused by Post 158.

Nocmen: I have my suspicions too that Shy Guy may be an alt. But I'm not sure why that's a scum tell. Presumably he's adopted this persona before receiving his role in this game. So I consider it a null tell. I also do not see the fear mongering that you are refering to.

[Thesp]

Shy Guy, are you an alt?

[Skruffs]

I don't care where I am on the lynch list, the only thing that matters is making sure that there are two townies at the bottom. I discredit any 'wholesale' attempts at ordering people, though.

Thesp and ectomancer's percentage talk is odd.
Why would you use 25% and 75%?
1st of all, there's only 11 roles outside of ectomancer's, not 12, and he doesn't include himself as scum (whether he is or not), so yosarian's chances are actually 27.3%. (Big whoop)

Similarly, both of you seem to be taking the position that ectomancer, as town, would be more willing to give up his vote to 'another townie' than ectomancer as scum would be. Basically ectomancer's tact is one i would consider to be used by a survivor, in a regular game; follow the wagons. Not only is ectomancer not inputting his own 2-cents, he's also putting the impetus on yosarian to 'find scum' for him. If he is scum, this effectively get yosarian lynched along side him, without leading back to scum partners directly (unless yos figures them out on his own).

If they are both town, ecto's play is still not very helpful.

*note to self, put ecto up top and drop yos a spot*

[Ectomancer]

If they are both town, ecto's play is still not very helpful.

*note to self, put ecto up top and drop yos a spot*

That's hilarious. "If they both are town" then Yosarian2 has 2 town votes and town controls them both. Exact numbers aside (which I never calculated, I just flipped Thesp's), it is still more likely that I am consolidating a townie ballot.

The beauty of this is, the one's arguing cant argue with the logic and have no idea what to do about it. Move Ecto up and Yosarian down? How is suddenly Yosarian more town in your eyes based upon my actions? Or, how does doing that counteract the move? I clearly believe you are just guessing and have just have no idea what to do. That is what makes it hilarious. I've chosen a path that gives me a reasonable probability of affecting town's chances in the positive, yet the clueless among us feel obliged to criticize.

[Shy Guy]

Nocmen, thank you for replying. I hope I may allay your concerns.

1) I am experienced at playing mafia. I said so in the sign-up thread. I don't quite understand why you think there is a false impression in this regard; if there is, I ask that all players realize that I am not new at playing mafia and that they don't take my supposedly being new into account for my advantage.

Above and beyond that, as to whether I am experienced playing in

this

particular site, I don't see how that is relevant, and this sentence will be that last comment you here from me on that matter. If anyone chooses to find me suspicious for this, that is your prerogative, but I can't see why it would make sense to do so. opie was entirely correct that I am resolved to try to post only relevant, concise posts in all games, and my doing so here is not an alteration due to alignment.

2) I don't understand how I was using fear-mongering. I could easily have made an example with 3 more townies, I used less for simplicity. I am sorry if you are confused or think you are being misled by my use of fewer players. I don't see how I am insistent that everything needs to be done my way; I have not, in fact, proposed a system under which to form consensus. I am, in part, relying upon others to come up with such a system -- clearly I am not demanding that any system of mine be used as of yet, as I have yet to formulate one. However, I do insist that we strongly consider forming consensus in some manner, as not doing so leaves ourselves at great risk of scum manipulation.

3) I was concerned that everyone was expressing Yos-town for no reason. I now see good reason to think Yosarian2 is town. I believe you are missing a significant difference.

Max, either I am very mistaken about how this setup works, or you are. From my understanding, 8 would be lynched day 1, followed by 9. If this is incorrect, I'd like you to explain further. I'm perplexed as to why my using what you believe to be a faulty example warrants a most-scummy ranking. You have still not explained what, if any, "newbie mistakes" I've made, and until you do so I have no recourse but to assume you said I made newbie mistakes to cast dispersions on me for no reason.

Skruffs, your recent post has done nothing to address mine or Yosarian2's, and I am quite frustrated by this.

[Oman]

I'm still reading guys.

I'm considering a rearrangment in my ballot, but are unsure where I feel shy guy falls.

[opie]

The beauty of this is, the one's arguing cant argue with the logic and have no idea what to do about it.

I guess I can't argue with your logic because, I must admit, I don't fully understand it.

[Yosarian2]

I understand why you might feel that way reading over responses so far, but it seemed to me that during significant conversations between several players, you chose to focus (largely to the exclusion of others) on a conversation with Shy Guy which I thought didn't really say much of anything significant. I thought you were deliberately avoiding interaction with other players.

Eh? Shy Guy was asking me why I answered a question directed at another player. How is that "not significant" in a game where the only thing we've got to go on is interaction between players? Would you rather I ignored the question there?

And I hardly think I'm "avoiding interactions" with anyone.

By the way, Thesp, could you explain why you think Skruffs is pro-town?

[Ectomancer]

The beauty of this is, the one's arguing cant argue with the logic and have no idea what to do about it.

I guess I can't argue with your logic because, I must admit, I don't fully understand it.

Im sorry then, in that respect I do not mean to be a jerk. My position is one that evolved, admittedly, because I did not examine the rules until after the fact, and then roughly skimmed over them.
The basic premise is this:
1: We have to make a list today that will determine everyday after this.
2: People are trying to come up with a way to break this mathematically (which I dont believe is possible when you dont know which positions to weigh)

My own version of giving myself the best mathematical odds of winning is to go with the odds. Fate did that by placing Yosarian at the bottom of an alphabetical list that also happens to be a "most scum" to a "most town" list. Fair enough, that's random. 2 people subsequently left him at the bottom of their ballot, by virtue of habit, we tend to move people

up

a scum list, rather than down. That's a pretty good random selection, and also places him at the "most townie" slot, which is where you would want your townie you supported to be. Yosarian is a perfect storm.
(If you are still wondering about the math, there are more town than scum at the beginning of the game. Any random selection is statistically more probably a town member than scum, even leaving me out, they are still good odds in my favor)
So, placing my bets on a Yosarian townie, I'm also tying my ballot to him. This double gambit not only places him high on the town list, but makes him a "super delegate". Why? I think town needs to be in control of the ballot. I've already gambled that he is town, now this is the equivalent of going "all in" on Yosarian. (Yes, I play poker a moderate amount)

You are free to decide your own way of giving town the best shot of influencing the ballot. You could toss your cards all in with me on Yosarian too, or you could draw names randomly from a hat (that's actually a pretty good one), or you could form a coalition, or things could just fall as they have been (seriously, consider the names from a hat).
I'm sticking with my way. Good luck to us.