Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Ectomancer]

Can anyone explain why is Yosarian2 at the bottom of everyone's list?

I'm pretty sure it's because most people are doing their ballots by alphabetical order.

My opinion on the strategy discussed so far is that it would be a good idea to come to a consensus on the most scummy and least scummy players, because as someone stated earlier, if we do our own ballots, it will be easier for the mafia to manipulate them.

Do as you wish. I'll construct my own ballot, my way. Call it a double blind, as I feel a process by which we collectively agree on the most and least scummy is equally open to manipulation.

[Oman]

I put yos2 at the bottom because I believe him to be town.

[Mr Stoofer]

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

--

[col]

Ectomancer

--

[col]

Max

andersonw
Ectomancer
springlullaby
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
Oman
Nocmen
Yosarian2

[col]

Nocmen

Oman
andersonw
Ectomancer
Max
opie
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
springlullaby
Thesp
VanDamien
Yosarian2

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
springlullaby
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

--

[col]

Sarcastro

--

[col]

Shy Guy

--

[col]

springlullaby

--

[col]

Thesp

--

[col]

VanDamian

--

[col]

Yosarian2

--

Note:

• Everyone must post a ballot by
  9am GMT Monday 25th February
  .
  
  
• Day 0 will end between
  Monday 3rd March
  and
  Friday 14th March
  .

[Ectomancer]

I put some thought to it and with the current political season adding inspiration, I have an interesting way we could do the ballots. Let's talk about the Pro's and Con's, but here's what I had in mind.

Without using [code}, we could discuss what our ballots will look like and why.
Based upon someone else's ballot and their explanation, we can choose to back a player and their list whom we believe to be town. They begin become a Delegate for the balloting and whoever pledged to them will submit an identical ballot to theirs. The more pledges someone gets, the more powerful they become.

The transparency in having us discuss possible ballots beforehand, plus the historical evidence we will have of who pledged to whom and what the ballots were should at least give this method real evidence to work on in the long run.

[Max]

andersonw:

Only two posts not much to go on here claiming people are going alphabetically yet one person has a vote for adele near the bottom.

My opinion on the strategy discussed so far is that it would be a good idea to come to a consensus on the most scummy and least scummy players, because as someone stated earlier, if we do our own ballots, it will be easier for the mafia to manipulate them.

If we come to a consensus it's like having a dictator in mafia the reason some days last longer than others is because difference in opinion. and if everyone has the same ballot the chances of winning will be decreased

Nocmen:

Claiming to find me scummy moves only one player, Adele, to the top of the list, Lyncher maybe? I think some rearrangement will be done.

Questions & Concerns About Nocmen

Yes, I am asking questions a lot this game because I can. Why would you doubt this claim?

Ever thought that in the first post of a game I might be random voting?

However, if I just went and called someone clearly scum, I would probably be criticized for it.

Not true how many people do you know that call people clearly scummy during the first 2 pages of any mafia game? in large game expect maybe 5 or 6 smaller game 2 or 3.

[Max]

Ectomancer:

Trying to come up with a system, defends Nocmen saying "I view Nocmen's question as a valid attempt to move beyond the random stage.".

If you do not believe this, why then would you ask Max about his comment on andersonw? If you were asking because you were trying to determine whether his comment was suspicious, what are you wanting to get from his response that would allow you to make that determination?

Interesting question that I hope Nocmen will answer.

Oman: 2 proper posts one giving no reasons for either me or nocmen being exclusively scum

opie:
Good posting so far no scum vibes here.

Why are you taking is so seriously at this point?

Nocmen gave a politicians answer to this question either he has something to hide or he is being indirect. Either way I want more from Nocmens answer.

Sarcastro:

Sweet Zombie Jesus, am I the only sane person here? What possible answer could Max give? It was the first post of the game. It is impossible for him to have any logical reason for voting for Anderson unless he (Max) is scum, which he obviously wouldn't admit.

:good posting:

t's not possible to create a combination of lists that would work that way. It would require the lists to be affected by who's scum and who's town. But given any list, we can figure out in advance, no matter who is scum and who is town, who will be left at the end of the game. So no, there's no possible way of breaking the game in that way. Given any combination of votes, there will always be someone who would win the game for the scum if he is scum.

More good posting

Shy Guy: One insane guy, definately a few newbie mistake maybe worth thinking about later but nothing serious now.

SpringLullaby: No read, 2 posts neither about finding scum

Thesp (N/A) (1 Post)

Van Damien (1 real post useless one at that)

Yosarian2: no bad vibes.

[Max]

Scum points: (Everyone starts at 5 good townish vibes lower points Bad vibes increase points)

Nocmen - 8
Ectomancer - 7
Shy Guy - 6
andersonw - 6
Oman - 5
Thesp - 5
springlullaby - 5
VanDamien - 5
opie - 4
Sarcastro - 3
Yosarian2 - 2

Code: Select all

Nocmen
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
springlullaby
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro
Yosarian2

Strategy:

Everyone discusses like in normal mafia showing positive and negative points for each person. Personally I believe in this system because the group voting needs only one mistake and the we lose.

[Yosarian2]

Opie seems to mostly be repeating things other people have said. Not sure if this is scummy or just a sign of inexperence, but I'd like to see some thoughts of his own.

VanDamien hasn't said much yet. Neither has springlullaby. Definatly need to hear more from them.

[Nocmen]

Don't have time for a real post, but Max:

My ballot was made in alphabetical order, excluding myself. That is all.

[opie]

I just wanted to notify that I may be V/LA until 19 Feb.

[Shy Guy]

Max, I am very interested -- what "newbie mistakes" have I made?

Also, no one has given anywhere near an adequate answer as to why Yosarian2 is trusted by all (now 4/12) players who have made a list. He is mid-range for me at best, I don't see why he is being found so townlike at all.

Yosarian2, why would someone's position on general strategy

not

help me analyze them? How is the onus on me to say that it would help me analyze them? It seems obvious to me that it would.

[springlullaby]

I haven't posted much because the vote system is really throwing me off. Although I can't think of a system that could be more advantageous to the town, Max's seems as good as any. I'll do a reread and post my list shortly.

[Nocmen]

I haven't posted much because the vote system is really throwing me off. Although I can't think of a system that could be more advantageous to the town, Max's seems as good as any. I'll do a reread and post my list shortly.

Could you at least have gone and posted something? Anything is better than nothing...95% of the time at least. Also, are you just going along with a system in order to say you agree with someone?

Ecto, what would happen if we all pledged to someone, and then sort of all just didn't all of a sudden? What if just one person went against everything? The main problem with your idea is it requires way too much coordination, if we can't get people together for a plan needing 2 or 3 people, how can we get 12 working?

Max: As I said before, did you realize that my ballot solely was in alphabetical order, before Adele left? Yea, because I totally did that because I'm an lyncher towards Adele. Also, are you even reading this game? I said I just wanted to get any information we could from your random voting. I also answered Ecto's questions that you quoted if you noticed. Why do you think ShyGuy is insane?

Opie: Is there any chance you could , before you leave, or soon after your return, to go and say a true opinion? I have noticed that as Yos said, your posts are pretty short and don't really show an opinion.

ShyGuy: If you noticed, my list is in alphabetical order. Sadly, Y is near the end of the alphabet, so Yos is last on the list in alphabetical order. Why do you want an adequate answer, when it has been stated before?

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian2, why would someone's position on general strategy

not

help me analyze them?

Um...because an obveous point of general stratagy like that could quite easily be made by anyone of any alignment?

[Shy Guy]

Nocmen, at least two players have said they find Yosarian2 to be town. I find that completely unjustified.

Yosarian2, "obvious points of general strategy" is a term I'd be very cautious of using here. Scum definitely would like to use this setup to their advantage; I have done some reading here -- I remember that in a very long game called kingmaker, which also had a different lynching method (of kings), scum tried to bend the mechanic to their favor. I see no reason not to suspect scum doing the same here -- and that means that we should very much want to hear from all players on their opinions about "obvious points of general strategy".

[Yosarian2]

Well, of course we want to hear everyone discussing stratagy. I'm just bemused that you're annoyed that I answered a question as basic as "how does looking for scum help us figure out who is town". That is a "obveous point of general stratagy", and it's not one that's really affected much by the mechanics of this game.

[Ectomancer]

[Ecto, what would happen if we all pledged to someone, and then sort of all just didn't all of a sudden? What if just one person went against everything? The main problem with your idea is it requires way too much coordination, if we can't get people together for a plan needing 2 or 3 people, how can we get 12 working?

Then of course you would just be individual delegates. This idea doesnt require that everyone participate (though they will in their own right just by playing the game).

It is not difficult to implement. I, for example, could simply pledge to vote Yosarian's ballot. Before the deadline, I just copy/paste Yosarian's ballot and submit it as my own.

If someone decides to back out, so what? It is an action that can be called into question later, one way or another.

If I paraphrased your reply, Nocmen, it might read something like this: Gee Ecto, that sounds way too hard for us to do. Maybe we should just drop it?
I'm not liking the lack of a pioneering spirit.


Putting my money where my mouth is, this Yosarian thing is somewhat interesting. I can see why he ended up at the bottom of the list, and I have to say that it really is a somewhat random method of selecting a townsperson. Probability states that, if truly random, I have a greater chance of Yosarian being town than scum. By a corrollary, by giving my vote to Yosarian, I also have a greater chance of town being control of the lynch than scum.

pledge Yosarian2

[Ectomancer]

In the interest of being fully disclosed, here is my personal list:

Sarcastro
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
springlullaby
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
Shy Guy
Oman
Yosarian2

[Shy Guy]

I am unnerved by this pledging system, and extremely unnerved by the fact that not one person besides me has expressed a modicum of concern that Yosarian2 is being consistently evaluated as town without any explicit reasoning.

This pledging system is a risky path, in that just a few pledges to a mafia member give the mafia almost as much control over lynches as the town. My previous thoughts on Ectomancer (which many have yet to comment on) not withstanding, I'm somewhat uncomfortable with his idea, and extremely uncomfortable with his application, of this pledging system.

Yosarian2, I contend that this "point of general strategy" is not non-analogous to the point you preempted opie on earlier -- surely you concede that people's opinions on the pledging system can be interpreted in one way or another?

[Ectomancer]

Shy Guy, you may feel unnerved, but can you refute the logic?
Mathematically, there are more town than scum in a given game. Therefore, if you take a random sampling of the players in this game, you are more likely to choose a town member than scum.
The lists were compiled from the primary list generated by the mod, in alphabetical order. It was done that way, because alphabetically is a standard practice.
Assuming that the mod did a random.org for roles, then the probability spread across that list remains standard, giving no single position more likelyhood of being scum (or town) than any other.
Yosarian happened to be at the bottom of that list. At this stage of the game, I, and others it appears to me from the evidence we have, are inclined to move players

up

the list as they appear scummy to us, rather than

down

the list. Perhaps after a night's events, that may change, but

today

the proclivity is to concentrate on the scummy.

So, we have Yosarian2, by all rights chosen randomly as the most townie from the entire list, simply because *scum* are represented by a higher position on the list and *town* are represented by the bottom of the list. Statistics tell me that he is

more likely to be town

than he is to be scum.
So my question is to you, why sir do you protest? Can you refute the logic? As this event has occurred naturally, and without the contrivance of any of the players, is it not to be taken advantage of, and in fact, attempting to oppose this without proposing an equally favorable statistical probability is anti-town?

[Mr Stoofer]

Just to bump this above the locked threads...

Current ballots

:

[col]

andersonw

--

[col]

Ectomancer

--

[col]

Max

Nocmen
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
springlullaby
VanDamien
opie
Sarcastro
Yosarian2

[col]

Nocmen

Oman
andersonw
Ectomancer
Max
opie
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
springlullaby
Thesp
VanDamien
Yosarian2

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
springlullaby
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Shy Guy
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

--

[col]

Sarcastro

--

[col]

Shy Guy

--

[col]

springlullaby

--

[col]

Thesp

--

[col]

VanDamian

--

[col]

Yosarian2

--

Note:

• Everyone must post a ballot by
  9am GMT Monday 25th February
  .
  
  
• Day 0 will end between
  Monday 3rd March
  and
  Friday 14th March
  .

[andersonw]

Statistics tell me that he is

more likely to be town

than he is to be scum.
So my question is to you, why sir do you protest? Can you refute the logic? As this event has occurred naturally, and without the contrivance of any of the players, is it not to be taken advantage of, and in fact, attempting to oppose this without proposing an equally favorable statistical probability is anti-town?

Unless if I read your post wrong, I believe your argument is moot because you could use it on any person to say that they are more likely to be town than scum, so there is no point in using statistics and probability here.
Also, why do you say "Perhaps after a night's events, that may change" if there are no nights and we don't change our ballots after day 0 is over?

[Yosarian2]

While I'm flattered by the whole pledging thing, Ecto, I will agree that it's a little unnerving, even when it's me you're following. For one thing, it seems like that might make it harder for us to figure out your alignment, if you just copy/paste my list and post it; I mean, I haven't even posted a list yet, how do you know if you'll at all agree with mine?

Anyway, remember, anyone who hasn't posted a ballot before the 25th is modkilled. I'm about to go and read through everyone's posts and put together a first draft of my ballot right now, and I'd suggest everyone else do the same; once most people puts down some kind of non-random (or at least not completly random) ballot, then I think we'll be better able to see where we stand and start to look for patterns and such.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so here's my analysis so far. I’m going to do sort of a “point scale” thing here to show who I think is more pro-town and who is more scummy. Positive points means I think you’re looking more pro-town, negative points means I think you’re looking more scummy. Also note that, right now, people who haven’t posted content at all yet tend to be ranked at -1; this will continue to drop the longer they go without posting content. There’s only 4 pages so far, so there’s very to go on and so most of these ratings aren’t based on that much and I expect them to change a lot before deadline, but this seems like the best way to get content started and to get the ball rolling here, and we’ve got a very limited time scale, so here goes.


Andersonw: 3 posts so far. Post 1, conformation post, no content. Post 2, a few minor strategy points, and post 3, a somewhat interesting response to a post of Ecto’s. Neutral vibe on him so far, no real data. +0

Ecto: Quite active, which seems to be normal for him. Seems to be trying right from the start to look at players and relationships between players, and to be trying to get reactions out of people. Has given his personal opinion on a number of players, and they generally make sense to me. I don’t know if It the “pledging” strategy he’s suggested, but generally looks pro-town to me at the moment. +3

Max: Started with a random vote. One of the first people in the game to make a list of what he thinks of everyone else in the game; and while there’s not much to go on, in general his analysis posts of other playesrs make sense so far. Moderately pro-town vibes, +2

Nocmen: A lot of content. His question of Max’s page 1 early “andrew is clearly scum” comment is a bit odd, but probably harmless. Some strategy discussion. No strong sense on him yet, but at least he’s active and I could see a pro-town person making the kind of posts he’s made, so +1.

Oman: Posted a list, hasn’t really explained it yet or said all that much. Could you explain why you think Max and Nocmen are both suspicious looking but are probably not scum together, Oman? At the moment, neutral vibes on him, +0

Opie: Like I said, a lot of his posts feel like they’re echoing what other people have already said on strategic points. He also hasn’t really said anything about what he thinks about other players, or said anything that’s really impacted the game. That feels scummy to me. -2

Sarc: Good strategy discussion so far. Generally giving off good vibes. I would like to hear more about what he thinks about other specific players, though. For the moment, I’d say +1.

Shy Guy: Seems pretty pro-town to me. Interesting strategic thoughts early on. Seems rather paranoid (especially of me, heh), but that can be a sign of a nervous townie. Seems to be seriously trying to figure out who is scum long before anyone else is. I think he’s probably pro-town. +3

Springlullaby: Still hasn’t posted any content. Am waiting to see that “reread and list” she promised to post “shortly” on Friday. Until she does post some content, -1.

Thesp: Hasn’t posted content yet. Confirmed and said he would “check in more later”. Is he on vacation or something, does anyone know? -1

VanDamien: Also hasn’t posted any real content. Suggested that there might be some complicated mathematical way to break the setup; I don’t think there is, and he hasn’t yet came back to explain it. -1

Results:

Most scummy -----> least scummy

Opie -2
VanDamien/Thesp/springlullaby -1
Andersonw 0
Sarc/Normcon +1
Max +2
Shy Guy/Ecto +3

[Ectomancer]

@Andersonw - No, its not moot because not just any of us was listed as the most townie, only one of us was. That person was chosen at random, not in a manner manipulatable by us, the players. Probability states that Yosarian2 is more likely to be town. The point about Day 0 is that nothing has happened. After night new information is gained. We submit new ballots every day. Did you think we only submit one ballot for the entire game?

@Yosarian - I posted my list. The fact that you have not posted yours yet lends further support to my belief in relying on the probability inherent in a town/scum makeup at the beginning of a game. I know for certain that I didn't allow your posted list to influence my decision in following this path. I will admit though, since you are unnerved, if <name withheld> were in your seat, or perhaps <name withheld>, I might be alot more hesitant to blindly follow their list, even if I were told 100% that they were town.

Remember folks, I was not the one who suggested that we might break this ballot using math. I simply came up with the most statistically probable method for that ballot to be controlled by

town

. I do not believe that, beyond that, we can somehow use a pattern of voting that would somehow systematically unearth the scum.

I will concur that Yosarian doesn't have enough information generated yet to really make a good list, and that if everyone simply jumped onboard right now, there would be reduced opportunity for that information to materialize.