Mini 554 - Mafia in Vollville - Over!!


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Post Post #300 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:00 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

pickemgenius wrote:you should be reading Guardians response to Incognito please.
Pros: Guardian isn't being overdefensive. He doesn't use crap arguments to derail the case on him.

Cons: He is doing it deliberately, rather than naturally (which makes it less of a town tell). He seems to be paying attention to how many people suspect him.

Overall I'd say that post is solidly neutral on the tell-o'-meter.


=======================================
Votecount #12

opie - 4 (Adel, Oman, Guardian, ChaosOmega)

Guardian - 2 (opie, Incognito)
Oman - 1 (Jitsu)
Xyltixlm - 1 (Matt_S)
TrustGossip - 1 (pickemgenius)
Jitsu - 1 (Erg0)
Matt_S - 1 (Xylthixlm)

Not voting - 1 (TrustGossip)

With 12 alive, it's 7 to lynch.
Deadline for D1: Saturday March 1, 10:55AM GMT+10
=======================================
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Post Post #301 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 5:13 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

pickemgenius: Is TrustGossip scum?
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Post Post #302 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:06 pm

Post by Erg0 »

I take it that my case on Jitsu hasn't set anyone's world on fire? Comments would be nice.
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Post Post #303 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:10 pm

Post by pickemgenius »

Xylthixlm wrote:pickemgenius: Is TrustGossip scum?
not sure.

i thought i didn't have my vote on anybody tbh... guess i did.

TG is likely my #2-#3 atm. i'm waiting on something from my #1 before I react.
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Post Post #304 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:13 pm

Post by Guardian »

Oman, why do you think my fos is for bad/the wrong reasons?
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Post Post #305 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:16 pm

Post by pickemgenius »

Erg0 wrote: Jitsu - Reaction to Oman's daykill is neither here nor there, I don't think anyone really falls for that one any more. Post 129 set off major alarm bells for me, as he tries to paint himself as having been aware for some time that the wagon on me was non-serious, and was simply waiting for someone to admit it. The tone of his previous posts, such as 98 (where he responds seriously to Oman's joke case), don't tally with this assertion. His subsequent defence against Incognito's case smacks of revisionism, as he was obviously attempting to give the impression in 129 that he'd known for a while, whereas in 180 he says that he only realised this when Oman said it was a joke (in 120). Overall, 129 looks like a massive backdown brought on by the realisation that the position he has taken is seen as suspicious by the town as a whole. I wouldn't be surprised at all if opie is town caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, and Jitsu is the scum that was lucky enough to be given the opportunity to run away.

Vote: Jitsu
I'm not big on the tone part. because it's neigh impossible to tell a persons actual tone on the internet, as it is really easy to make up tones on the internet.
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Post Post #306 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:18 pm

Post by Erg0 »

Subsitute "content" for "tone", then.
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Post Post #307 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:23 pm

Post by Guardian »

Erg0, my world has not been set on fire. I don't really see the inconsistency that you claim to see.

Adel, you lied, this opie lynch is taking way longer than 6 pages :(.
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Post Post #308 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:24 pm

Post by Guardian »

Also Adel is your 289 completely serious?
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Post Post #309 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:34 pm

Post by ChaosOmega »

opie: A lot of your responses to things just seem kind of...off. You're one of the most suspicious people I've seen in my re-read, and you had the most votes. Figured it was a good place to put my vote. Besides, you were only at L-4 before my vote. I thought you needed more pressure.
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Post Post #310 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:36 pm

Post by Guardian »

What do you think of other players besides opie, CO? Who is next in suspiciousness? Is opie the most suspicious, or only got your vote because he has the most?
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Post Post #311 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:53 pm

Post by ChaosOmega »

He had the most. He's in the top 3 on my list. I don't know if I'd rank him the most suspicious, but he's definitely close. A lot of his posts seem really...passive. I guess that's the best word. Like he's just trying to smooth things over. It could just be that he happens to be under the most heat and he's being defensive because of it, but he was posting like that before he got the wagon going on him.

As for other people I'm suspicious of, the top 3 would also include Xylthixlm and Incognito.
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Post Post #312 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:12 pm

Post by pickemgenius »

Erg0 wrote:Subsitute "content" for "tone", then.
that's better.
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Post Post #313 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:21 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

ChaosOmega wrote:He had the most. He's in the top 3 on my list. I don't know if I'd rank him the most suspicious, but he's definitely close. A lot of his posts seem really...passive. I guess that's the best word. Like he's just trying to smooth things over. It could just be that he happens to be under the most heat and he's being defensive because of it, but he was posting like that before he got the wagon going on him.

As for other people I'm suspicious of, the top 3 would also include Xylthixlm and Incognito.
You forgot to provide your reasoning.
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Post Post #314 (ISO) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:30 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Erg0 wrote:I take it that my case on Jitsu hasn't set anyone's world on fire? Comments would be nice.
I don't see Jitsu's reaction as scummy.

But if you wanted to set my world on fire, you could vote Matt_S or TrustGossip.
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Post Post #315 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 3:55 am

Post by Incognito »

Erg0 wrote:I take it that my case on Jitsu hasn't set anyone's world on fire? Comments would be nice.
Erg0, I actually like your case against Jitsu. It's basically what I was picking up also when I called him out in one of my earlier posts about how he was trying to wipe his hands clean of his earlier actions around your mini-wagon. I'd certainly love to see his response to everything recent also.
ChaosOmega wrote:As for other people I'm suspicious of, the top 3 would also include Xylthixlm and Incognito.
Can you explain why? It really irks me when people make unsupported statements like this.
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Post Post #316 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 4:25 am

Post by Jitsu »

Everyone, I'm very sorry that I've been away for a number of days. I've been sick and haven't had a lot of time to analyze the thread.

I will post some comments in a little bit for Erg0/Incognito and try to catch up on all the other goings on as well.
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Post Post #317 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:42 am

Post by Jitsu »

Jitsu - Reaction to Oman's daykill is neither here nor there, I don't think anyone really falls for that one any more. Post 129 set off major alarm bells for me, as he tries to paint himself as having been aware for some time that the wagon on me was non-serious, and was simply waiting for someone to admit it. The tone of his previous posts, such as 98 (where he responds seriously to Oman's joke case), don't tally with this assertion. His subsequent defence against Incognito's case smacks of revisionism, as he was obviously attempting to give the impression in 129 that he'd known for a while, whereas in 180 he says that he only realised this when Oman said it was a joke (in 120). Overall, 129 looks like a massive backdown brought on by the realisation that the position he has taken is seen as suspicious by the town as a whole. I wouldn't be surprised at all if opie is town caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, and Jitsu is the scum that was lucky enough to be given the opportunity to run away.
I admit that my phrasing in the first part of 129 was very poor and gave an incorrect impression of my thoughts. I apologize to the town for that, but it was unintentional. I don't fault Incognito or Erg0 for pointing that out that inconsistency. Erg0's case on me was well explained.

I'll try to explain. I absolutely did bite on Oman's joke case as being serious. This is my second game of Mafia ever, and I really was unprepared for an opening game stuffed full of that many gambits, joke cases, fake dayvig's and the like. I really wasn't expecting that all along that the case wasn't serious. If I had, I would not have attacked Oman like I did. In post 98, I thought there might be a chance that Oman wasn't completely serious, but I really wasn't sure. *At that point in time*, I did expect that if it were a non-serious case, that Oman would have admitted it as such. I miscalculated though, because I admit Oman was right that there was really no reason for him to jump off the wagon at that point. Post 180 is a more clearly worded explanation of what I was thinking. When Oman did finally confirm that the case was not serious, I realized that at least some of my assumptions were wrong, so I went back and reread to try to get a fresh perspective on things.

As for the turnaround on Opie, my earlier explanation is accurate. I liked his initial thoughts on Guardian in post 73 and when he pointed out in 75 that he thought Guardian intended "Those of you not voting for Erg0, explain yourself" in his post 65, it explained my suspicions well. But when he made the FoS on Adel, I disagreed (I even said such in 77). In retrospect, I probably should have asserted my disagreement more forcefully. It was a difficult line for me to walk because I thought some of Opie's observations had some merit (I still do think that some of them did), but I didn't agree with some of his other conclusions. It looked like Guardian was trying to lump me together with Opie at that point and since I didn't agree with everything Opie said, I tried to distance myself from Opie a bit, but I feel I explained why I was doing it.

When Adel presented her case on Opie, I did agree with her point that Opie seemed to overreach a bit by extending his suspicion from the person he really thought scummy (Guardian) to Oman and Adel largely by association. I agreed less with some of Adel's other points.

(Another post to comment on more recent events will be more forthcoming.)
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Post Post #318 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 5:56 am

Post by ChaosOmega »

Xylthixlm wrote:You forgot to provide your reasoning.
I didn't forget. I'm just not going to follow up on it too much yet. Besides, there's more of day 1 for me to watch your actions without me saying what actions of yours I'm watching.

Also, you only have 1 vote. Even if I provided a fantastic case, I doubt I could pull enough votes to you to cause a lynch. The plurality is focused on opie, and I think it's a good place to look at the moment, as I haven't liked the tone of his posts. I'll follow up with my suspicions of you once more things clear up.
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Post Post #319 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 6:14 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

ChaosOmega wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:You forgot to provide your reasoning.
I didn't forget. I'm just not going to follow up on it too much yet. Besides, there's more of day 1 for me to watch your actions without me saying what actions of yours I'm watching.
I hope I'm not the only person who finds this scummy.
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Post Post #320 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:10 am

Post by TrustGossip »

Ok. I realize I basically have not been playing this game at all.

Mod: I would really like a replacement


I'm really sorry everyone, but I couldn't follow the arguments anyways.
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Post Post #321 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 9:30 am

Post by Adel »

Guardian wrote:Also Adel is your 289 completely serious?
yes. I am all about keeping the signal to noise ratio down. If I didn't know that you were town I would probably take a different stance.
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Post Post #322 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 10:51 am

Post by Jitsu »

Okay, I have taken notes on the rest of the game, and I am caught up on reading, but I still need to analyze and sort out what's been happening as there's been a lot of finger pointing going on.

I do have some preliminary questions:

@Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum? Also, how do you know that Guardian is town (post 321)?

@Xylthixlm: What specifically about Opie's post 184 gave you a townie reaction on him?

@Guardian: Why specifically do you find Erg0's joking scummy (post 217)?

@Incognito: In 99, you ask Oman to provide links to the games he cited in 87. Did you ever look at this meta and draw any conclusions from it?
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Post Post #323 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:14 am

Post by Adel »

Jitsu wrote: @Adel: Can you explain why you think Matt_S's probability of being scum is dependant on Opie being scum? Also, how do you know that Guardian is town (post 321)?
1. I forget, but I know.
2. I forget, but I know.
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Post Post #324 (ISO) » Fri Feb 15, 2008 11:46 am

Post by Incognito »

Jitsu wrote:@Incognito: In 99, you ask Oman to provide links to the games he cited in 87. Did you ever look at this meta and draw any conclusions from it?
I did look at this meta. As for conclusions drawn, I think the two instances were somewhat different. In this game, he seemed more confident and sincere about his day-vig abilities whereas in the game he cited, it seemed more clear that he was bluffing about these abilities.
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ChaosOmega wrote:
Xylthixlm wrote:You forgot to provide your reasoning.
I didn't forget. I'm just not going to follow up on it too much yet. Besides, there's more of day 1 for me to watch your actions without me saying what actions of yours I'm watching.
I hope I'm not the only person who finds this scummy.
I didn't like this post either, especially when you couple that with the fact that he completely overlooked my post where I asked him almost the same question.

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