mneme wrote:Shanba wrote:mneme wrote:Which means at a minimum, we have 18 votes (possibly 19)
Again, the players I "killed" (myself and tss) do not appear on the still living list, but we are, in fact, still alive - those are the votes you're missing.
There are only 15 players on the living list. I was assuming you were the remaining player, and forgot about TSS. But that only gets us to 17; which still leaves us one vote short.
I think I said that earlier, too... lemme go check.
Regardless, I'm not sure this is important. Either it's a mod error, which the discussion we've had ought to highlight, or it's to do with a role, and any discussion of it is likely to out the role.
Shanba wrote:Well for one thing, I think it's pretty clear I
do
suspect him: I am, you know, voting him.
Noticed. Find some buddies and you can argue your force with more, well force. Me, I'd rather leave the single player mason alone for the moment and give our (probably doomed) doctor a smaller choice of targets to defend. In general, masons shouldn't come out without a good argument; one player ain't it. Anyway, I suspect one can easily figure out who Belgarion is the alter of by looking at who started posting again near when he did.
I'm not putting much store in roles this game. My own role is nigh useless as town, despite my best efforts to gain info with it, but would be great as scum, especially my other ability (which I have no intention of ever using this game.) Even so, a two-role one-man team is not necessarily a town role, and I don't think masons is a fair description of it.
Also, your suggestion is just about the worst way of going about it - scum get enough info so that if he's not scum they can avoid killing him, but town don't know for sure so they can't make any connections or use any evidence they gather.
Sure, then I guess I'll have to rally support somehow, because I want him claimed and eventually dead. Unfortunately for now, that means watching and waiting, because nothing I have yet is going to get him lynched, but I'm pretty sure he's scum.
Shanba wrote:For another, it was not fishing: I was pretty explicit that I wanted him to reveal his role.
You started with fishing. You then got more explicit.
Eh.
It was never intended to be underhand. I can see how you would interpret it that way.
Shanba wrote:
The arguments against him are fundamentally flawed, and I hate craplogic. If I disagree with something, I will say it. (As a sidenote, I tihnk the way you get me to repeat my defence of Jdodge and the accuse me of defending him too hard is disingenuous at best.)
Repeating a bad defense just looks more scummy, not more genuine.
[/quote]
That's ridiculous.
Damned if I do, damned if I don't? You asked me to repeat myself. So I did. Now repeating my defence is scummy. Your insinuation here is catch 22.
Edit - Urm, sorry, that wasn't you. That was TSS. I still think your argument is utterly ridiculous though. Repeating a defence makes it scummier? Bullshit.
Shanba wrote:
Ok, well there are two points here. First, you claim that scum would kill Nocmen because he had a pr, second, you state that because there was only one kill and that kill was town, it was a mafia kill.
That last bit is the usual case, yes. I don't have any info that makes me think it's untrue, do you?
well, the, uh, rest of the arguments I set forth in my post, for a start. Could you please try and keep each point I'm making together? It makes the argument smoother and less difficult to keep track of. Thanks.
Moreover, your argument relies on the assumption that the arguments of a very small number of very loud people against Nocmen were likely to be effective. Since it -was- a very small number of people, that seems disingenous.
It was a plurality, and, moreover, a loud one. No one else was close to accruing the amount of suspicion he was - people were pulling in disparate directions, but none of them were pulling together. The nature of mafia is that we wagon, and as such, pluralities very quickly become majorities if there are no competing wagons, either because of deadlines, because of players who live to join wagons, players who have that player as a compromise or even those who just don't see any real reason not to lynch him will join the wagon and push it to a lynch.
If you dispute that he was the player under the most pressure, who would you state was likely to have been the lynch today? Because I don't see any other reasonable candidate: Oman, maybe, but he was protected by his claim, me, perhaps, but the amount of people suspecting me isn't enough to build a wagon, Zoneace, maybe, but again, a smaller and less vocal group were after him than Nocmen.
Shanba wrote:be anything from double voter to unkillable, and it certainly doesn't mean anything where the setup was not designed by a single mod with full power over balance/role design.
Actually, looking at the roles chosen compared to submision claims, I'll challenge that last bit. There was a single mod who had full power over balance/role design. The fact that MoS farmed out a lot of the brainstorming to us doesn't change the fact that he clearly spent a lot of time and attention making sure the roles were reasonably balanced and playable once assigned.
Ok, fine. And the rest of the argument?
Shanba wrote:Your conclusion doesn't even follow from this assumption, though. Say player x claims cop. However, he has been acting scummy all game
Please leave your straw man in Oz -- Nocmen wasn't even a little scummy; instead, there were a few specific scummy people who wanted to lynch him because he had a post restriction. They might have assumed they'd have better success on later days...but they might as easily have assumed that their ploy had failed and would fail.
See what I said before about vocal pluralities. If a politician only wins 30% of the vote, but none of his rivals win more than 10%, who's most likely to be elected?
I don't really understand JDodge's claimed day/night reversal. Does anyone? Does JDodge? Without knowing how it works, it's impossible to know how useful it is and whether it in itself is worthwhile beyond proving his role. Assuming everything is secret that usually is, it does what? Turn night-cops into day-cops, mafia into day-discussing scum with a daykill, etc; just reversing night and day timing? Beyond making it slightly more likely that cops will be able to talk even if kill-targetted (ie, they may be able to race with day-killing scum and win), I fail to see how this benefits the town significantly.
I kind of agree with you here. It doesn't give us a whole lot of benefit, but then, I can't see that it would hurt us substantially either, and, if it would and Jdodge is scum, why he wouldn't have done it already in secret. But that's kinda WIFOM...
If the scum missed their kill, I'd have expected to see a strong attack on at least one player who wasn't Jdodge. (OTOH, there's a lot of WIFOM there, so hey).
Huh? Why?
Also, I'm still curious re Sir Tornado.
mneme wrote:
Shanba re Oman wrote:
I want confirmation of his role as soon as possible, as people qfted him yesterday and he suddenly came up with an explanation today of why it didn't give him any votes.
Agreed. His role doesn't confirm alignment, but it is indicative, so it's very useful to confirm (or, you know, not).
Mhm. Tbh, I don't see a scum multivoter in game without some serious restrictions.
the silent speaker wrote:Shanba wrote:You think he's lying about being a one-shot vig. I don't see any reason to believe this. It makes much more sense that he would kill Nocmen as a 1-shot than as a scumbag.
I disagree with this both in principle and in specific. In principle, a one-shot's reaction to the notion of using his kill on night 3, on anything less than confessed scum (and possibly not even that), should be, well, "OH, THE HORROR!" In specific, having tried and failed to get Nocmen killed for his post restriction, and with Nocmen an expected power role, I see no reason why scum should not find him an attractive target. To argue otherwise is to say that they should have tried to get him lynched again; but a vig should be no less confident in his persuasive powers than the same player as scum.
No...
if a 1-shot thinks he's found scum, why shouldn't he shoot him? The amount of time is meaningless, it's more the degree of certainty, and Jdodge's actions correspond to the degree of certainty I'd expect from a 1-shot vig before firing.
Secondly, the scum really hadn't had a chance to get him lynched yet. The momentum for the wagon built up on a day where it couldn't have any effect, due to it being kingmaker, so they never had the opportunity to try and fail for the wagon. I'm pretty certain they would have had their Nocmen lynch today if they'd tried.
Your final point is also flawed. As a vig, killinga scummy looking player, even if they're not scum means that you can use the days lynch to hunt for more scum. As scum, killing a lynchable power role does not mean that you can use the day to lynch another lynchable power role, as there may not be one there to lynch. Scum rely much more on opportunities than trying to create lynches, which is the most dangerous part of the game for scum, whereas vig doesn't need to worry about that. As such, whether or not the vig believes in his persuasive powers, he should kill scummy players to limit the amount of mislynches the town makes (a mislynch is more costly than a misvig, as a mislynch entails an extra nightkill), and to get the information on the table quicker. For scum, the opposite is true.
And you can't even play the WIFOM that he killed Nocmen deliberately as scum to claim 1-shot, because he couldn't have known that killing Nocmen would have outed him,
I said nothing about playing WIFOM to claim one-shot; I have no doubt that JDodge had no intention of claiming when he sent in his kill. The thing is, WIFOM is irrelevant ot an ad hoc claim (true or not). A vig would expect not to be implicated in the kill just as much as scum, and therefore they would expect not to have to claim the next morning for exactly the same reasons as he. You are assuming that the action leads willy-nilly to the revelation, and it does nothing of the sort.
I was eliminating the possibilities that made him scum. That was one. In that post, I did not state the logic behind it, as it was a declaration of opinion. Please see my later posts for
why
I believe that.
a Nocmen kill is terrible from other perspectives (killing him makes me look better, deprives the scum of a possible mislynch)
Any
kill deprives the scum of a possible mislynch. By this argument the scum should never kill. Which is fine by me.
In theory, yes, in practice, no. Players who look pro-town are much harder to lynch than players who look scummy, players who are good at arguing are harder to lynch than those who are best known for the copious amounts of craplogic they produce, and confirmed masons are harder to lynch than millers with a guilty on them.
Not every player is a possible mislynch, and it's when the scum run out of easy mislynches that they start getting into real difficulties.
There's a great motive for jdodge town to kill nocmen,
And that would be...?
If Jdodge is town, he clearly believed that Nocmen was scum. As such, it makes sense for him to have vigged him. Um. That's pretty obvious, really.
And it's not like the missing kill is impossible to explain, either.
We've had one kill per night. What missing kill?
The missing kill I am referring to is the one that should be there if Jdodge was town - explaining it is not difficult, hence it is devalued as a reason to suspect jdodge.
Could more people weigh in on the argument, please? Walls of text leave people uninvolved, and I'd rather others began to discuss too rather than the thread being dominated by my arguments with tss and mneme.
