Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[andersonw]

/confirm

Now I wish my username started with z.

[andersonw]

Can anyone explain why is Yosarian2 at the bottom of everyone's list?

I'm pretty sure it's because most people are doing their ballots by alphabetical order.

My opinion on the strategy discussed so far is that it would be a good idea to come to a consensus on the most scummy and least scummy players, because as someone stated earlier, if we do our own ballots, it will be easier for the mafia to manipulate them.

[andersonw]

Statistics tell me that he is

more likely to be town

than he is to be scum.
So my question is to you, why sir do you protest? Can you refute the logic? As this event has occurred naturally, and without the contrivance of any of the players, is it not to be taken advantage of, and in fact, attempting to oppose this without proposing an equally favorable statistical probability is anti-town?

Unless if I read your post wrong, I believe your argument is moot because you could use it on any person to say that they are more likely to be town than scum, so there is no point in using statistics and probability here.
Also, why do you say "Perhaps after a night's events, that may change" if there are no nights and we don't change our ballots after day 0 is over?

[andersonw]

@Andersonw - No, its not moot because not just any of us was listed as the most townie, only one of us was. That person was chosen at random, not in a manner manipulatable by us, the players. Probability states that Yosarian2 is more likely to be town. The point about Day 0 is that nothing has happened. After night new information is gained. We submit new ballots every day. Did you think we only submit one ballot for the entire game?

As I think you have learned already, we do not submit new ballots every day and there is no night.
About your probability, you say that a randomly chosen person is likely to be town. So what if I was randomly chosen, then would you pledge me because there's a greater chance that I am town?

In regard to my second post, after thinking about it, I do think the point scale thing is a better idea than a general consensus, for the reason that if we make one mistake, we lose.

Also, (this is completely offtopic) somehow, my title changed to goon. How did that happen?

[andersonw]

andersonw is looking for consensus.

*points to post 107* Apparently, many people ignored it.

Just got home from school, working on my ballot now.

[andersonw]

ShyGuy, you are at the top of my ballot for two reasons:
1. From your posts I can tell you have some experience playing Mafia. However, you seem to be using some form of time restraint/newbieness towards your advantage.
2. You seem to be pressuring saying everything needs to be done your way. This is a 12 person set up, meaning that there needs to be at least 2 townies also in order for a 3-way tie to screw up. Nice use of fearmongering though.
3. You say that you are very concerned by everyone expressing town reads of Yos, while at the same time you yourself keep him second last on your ballot.

Two reasons? That doesn't look like 2 to me.

Anyway, here's my ballot. Explanation to follow.

Code: Select all

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[andersonw]

Second, the scum will have night choices. What happens if Yosarian2 is night killed tonight?

There are no night choices. We discussed that a few pages ago.

Btw, I'm not going to be around tomorrow because of a math contest lasting the whole day, and I have been preparing for it.

[andersonw]

Skruffs, about the tiebreakers, the third tiebreaker is:

[14] If all candidates not eliminated have the same number of votes, I will eliminate the player with the fewest votes in the previous round.

So it would not be exactly like you stated. I think that means in day 7, thesp would have been eliminated since he had the fewest votes in day 6. Then that would add another vote to both you and opie though, and surprise, you two both would have the same number of votes in day 6. Which means I have no idea what would happen next.
Sorry if I'm being confusing, I'm just about to go to sleep since the American Math Contest is tomorrow.

Oh yeah, and my basic reasons for my list were that I just tried to see who looked like they were scumhunting the most and who I got vibes from. If anyone wants to ask for clarification, I can provide a few examples of posts.

*goes to sleep*

[andersonw]

Andrew still hasn't posted all that much. Waiting to see the promised explination for his list.

Oh yeah, and my basic reasons for my list were that I just tried to see who looked like they were scumhunting the most and who I got vibes from. If anyone wants to ask for clarification, I can provide a few examples of posts.

I guess I will also provide a few examples of the people at the top of my right now.
Max-don't like his explanations of ballots. I don't understand what he means in this post, next to Ectomancer

Sarcastro ^moving up to top (buddying up claimed only to be doing that till changing vote not yet done so)
Ectomancer ^Moving higher up see sarc

Sarcastro's and ectomancer's reasons for "buddying up" were completely different.

Oman-hasn't posted anything with content and says that because everyone thinks yos is town, it makes him think that yos is not town. I agree with yosarian that it is illogical thinking.
Ectomancer-definitely don't like the pledging thing, and his logic is completely wrong sometimes, as stated by Sarcastro already.

VanDamien-has posted even less than me, also barely any content at all



It appears to me that Skruffs has been posting a lot of his opinions and is actively scumhunting since I last made my ballot, moving him down.

Code: Select all

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[andersonw]

EBWOP:
"I guess I will also provide a few examples of the people at the top of my right now. "
should be
"I guess I will also provide a few examples of the people at the top of my ballot right now. "

[andersonw]

Ectomancer: Why is Sarcastro fourth from last on your list, even after changing it after you made all of your posts saying he was scum?

I also don't understand what this part of your post means: "Still, read back up again, and see that he is destined for the middle anyhow. I cant put him in the top 3 with this playstyle, but I can keep him from winning, and that dear sirs, is the name of this game. "

Can't put him in the top 3 with this playstyle? Could you explain it better?


[offtopic] I've asked this question in one of my posts already, but it was ignored, so I'll ask it again. What do the "townsperson", "goon", "mafia scum" etc. mean?[/offtopic]

[andersonw]

My code stays the same, since it was already set to Yosarian2.

Is that random enough for you Thesp? Or are you adamantly opposed to the fact that it turned up Yosarian2 again? If so, I'll chop my name and Yosarian2's name off the list, and do a dice 1d10 with the remaining names. (Had my name come up, I would have created my own ballot FYI)
My problem with chopping our names off, is that the odds are no longer in town favor. I would prefer to leave the ballot at Yosarian2, but if asked to do it, (by Thesp, not one of you other jerks), then I'll do another random dice and that result will be final.

Ectomancer, I still don't see why random is good. Random can be manipulated by the scum, as stated many times before. Also, as sarcastro said, you doing this is like making a 10 dollar bet with 75 percent chance of making 11 dollars and 25 percent chance of losing everything.
Also, if you chop yosarian and your names off, the probability that town would win would still be the same because the probability of you or yosarian being mafia stays the same if it is random.

[andersonw]

Assumption #1: Scum has their list prepared properly. Oh, they might shift people around a bit, but in ways that wont affect the overall outcome.

Assumption #2: 2 of the scum are working together with their ballots to get the 3rd into the bottom 2. 1 of these 2 scum might also be working together with the 3rd scum to get the 1st scum into the bottom 3 as well.

Question: What would happen if we forced

everyone

to choose 2 completly different people that they believe to be town, to be in their bottom 2? If in the above equation, we labeled them scum #1, #2, and #3, they would need to change roles, so that #3 becomes #2, #2 becomes #1 and #1 becomes #3 (or reverse that).
That would create a pattern in our ballots that might be discernible.

Question #2: If the above act would create a pattern, would not doing it twice further refine that pattern?
Answer to Question #2: Yes, but not if Scum knows another will follow (or can arrange one).

Problem: This would only truly be effective if we ordered a lockdown on the bottom 2 candidates. If scum can change those later, they wont have to make sure their ballot is good again. They can slip someone else in to spoil the pattern, then slip their candidate back in again at the 11th hour.

Viable?

First of all, the scum do not know when the 11th hour is because Mr. Stoofer said that the deadline was unknown to everyone.
It's also not possible for everyone to choose two different people because some of those people would overlap and the scum could just overlap their two most townie people, so I don't think it's viable unless if I misunderstood your idea.
And I don't understand how we can do it twice, either.

[andersonw]

Do you understand? I believe scum already has their buddies in place. The play backs my statement. The stigma of 11th hour vote changes also supports my statement.
So, if they already have buddies in the bottom, they would have to put the other buddy in the bottom. You would find a person near the bottom, putting a person who previously voted them near the bottom. Then, the other scum who also voted for the one near the bottom, will switch his vote to the other scum, so that he and the previous bottom scum are now voting together for the other partner. Do you see?

I now get what you mean, Ectomancer, and I think it would work, but one thing that bothers me is if some people don't change their ballots in time before the deadline, that might not turn out so well.

That is the exact same way I feel. Really, I'm quite satisfied with the way this game is right now, and I am pretty certain it will be a town win if it were to end right now.

I agree with you here, I am pretty sure that opie and shy guy are both town.

I will point out that Anderson winds up 'changing his votes' more often than ANYONE else in the game; I doubt he's 'cleaver eough' (no offense intended) to intentionally set up his list to put 'dummy accounts' up top (like opie) with intentions of helping to vote out 'townie' players towards the end, but there's something about how he's in the middle of everyone's list but still makes it to final four that bugs me.

Could you explain better what you mean by "changing his votes more often than anyone else"? It appears to me that I've only made two ballots so far.
(no offense taken)

[andersonw]

Why it is Andersonw. Concidence?

It is coincidence. I don't know why Oman has me as #1 townie.

Just for complete truthfulness -- I thought I'd be eliminated early with the new ballots -- but some quick mental simulation shows Ectomancer eliminated day 1, and then some non-me person eliminated day 2, etc.

Actually, I'm running a ballot right now, and you were lynched day 2. :O Will post it up when I am finished.

[andersonw]

Okay, here are my results.



Day 1

Ectomancer-|||||
Shy Guy-|||
Yosarian2-|
VanDamien-|
Max-|
Nocmen-|

Yos, VD, Max, Nocmen eliminated.

Ectomancer-|||||||
Shy Guy-|||||

Ectomancer is lynched.

Day 2


Shy Guy-|||
Yosarian2-||
Nocmen-||
Thesp-| (Shy guy)
Oman-| (Nocmen)
Vandamien-| (Yosarian2)
Max-| (andersonw)

Thesp, Oman, vandamien, max eliminated.

Shy Guy-||||
Yosarian2-||| (Vandamien, sarcastro, nocmen)
Nocmen-||||

Yosarian2 eliminated

Shy Guy-||||||
Nocmen-|||||

Shy Guy is lynched day 2 :O

Day 3

VD-||
Yos-||
Nocmen-||
Max-||
Oman-| (nocmen)
Thesp-| (max)

Oman, thesp, eliminated.

VD-|||
Yos-|||
Nocmen-|| (Oman, opie)
Max-|| (andersonw, Thesp)

Nocmen, max eliminated

VD-||||||
Yos-||||

VD is lynched.

Day 4

Nocmen-|||
Max-||
Thesp-||
Oman-| (Nocmen)
Yosarian2-| (Sarcastro)

Oman, Yosarian2 removed.

Nocmen-||||
Max-|| (andersonw, thesp)
Thesp-|||

Max removed

Nocmen-||||||
Thesp-|||

And nocmen is lynched.

Day 5

Max-|||
Thesp-||
Oman-| (Skruffs)
Sarcastro-| (opie)
Yosarian-| (Sarcastro)

Oman, sarcastro, yosarian eliminated.

Max-|||||
Thesp-|||

And Max is lynched, this time day 5 instead of day 1.

Day 6

Sarcastro-||
Oman-||
Yosarian2-||
Thesp-| (yosarian)

Thesp is eliminated.

Sarcastro-|||
Oman-|| (Skruffs, andersonw)
Yosarian2-||

Now I don’t know who would be eliminated, but back in Day 3, Yos had more votes, so I will eliminate Oman.

Sarcastro-|||||
Yosarian2-||

Sarcastro is lynched day 6.

Day 7

Oman-|||
Opie-| (Oman)
Yosarian-|
Thesp-| (Yosarian2)

Opie and thesp are eliminated.

Oman-||||
Yosarian-||

Oman is lynched.

Day 8


Every candidate has exactly one vote.

Skruffs and I are eliminated, for having no votes last round, I think.

Yosarian-|
Thesp-|||
Opie-|

Thesp is lynched by majority.

Day 9

Skruffs-||
Andersonw-|
Opie-|

I think I am eliminated now, because opie had one vote last round.

Skruffs-||
Opie-||

Another tie, this time opie is eliminated, so skruffs is lynched.

Day 10

I am lynched.


Final two- opie and Yosarian2.

Mod

: by the tiebreakers, if more than 3 people are tied for least, than does just 1 person get eliminated or more? If only one person gets eliminated, then I may have messed up in day 7.

[andersonw]

Nice job skruffs, I wasn't expecting that.

And yay, this is my first finished game on mafiascum!:)