Mini 560: Methodical Mafia 2 -- GAME OVER

[Shy Guy]

I confirm.

[Shy Guy]

Hi guys. I am not new at mafia. I am usually very quiet, even with many things going on or even if I am being found suspicious. This might be the longest post you see from me, and I am being aberrant because I think I have some good ideas about the game that we can work with.

1) I know that typically in mafia, looking for mafia is the best way, because once one is dead you can trace back interactions with other players. But in this game, we never find out if we were right until too late, and the mafia can't kill off people we get right as being town. Also, we don't care if mafia are lynched 5,6,7 as opposed to 1,2,3, as long as they all get lynched. So, maybe starting by looking for who are most likely to be town, and putting them at the bottom of the list, is better.

2) Also, this way this works, I think that maybe we want to eventually agree on a "town list" and have everyone use that, putting people at the top who won't. If we all just have random lists, at first glance, it seems like it would be easier for the scum to manipulate the process.

What do you guys think?

And I am new here, does anyone want to be friends ?

[Shy Guy]

Yosarian2, I try and have lots of content in my posts without dithering and speak only when I have something good to say, if possible. Are you saying you would construe that as suspicious lurking? The answer to your second question will likely vary for each of us, just as it would had you asked how we are to go about looking for mafia.

Opie, why must we go about finding scum? Why not go about finding town? Why would town players evidence themselves in one activity and not the other?

[Shy Guy]

I tentatively suspect that Ectomancer is town because of his apparently sincere attempt to discern the allignments of others and frustration with Sarc when he interefered.

Yosarian2, why did you feel the need to respond to my question directed at opie?

[Shy Guy]

Mafia is about evaluating people's intentions. If you (Yosarian2) interject your opinion before they (opie) are able to answer a question, how am I to evaluate their response if it is at all similar to yours? Feel free to proffer your opinions

after

the person specifically addressed has responded, but doing so beforehand only serves to pollute any information that might be gleaned from their answering of the question.

Can anyone explain why is Yosarian2 at the bottom of everyone's list?

The distinction between relational and alignment information aside, what do you all think about my points on Ectomancer?

[Shy Guy]

Max, I am very interested -- what "newbie mistakes" have I made?

Also, no one has given anywhere near an adequate answer as to why Yosarian2 is trusted by all (now 4/12) players who have made a list. He is mid-range for me at best, I don't see why he is being found so townlike at all.

Yosarian2, why would someone's position on general strategy

not

help me analyze them? How is the onus on me to say that it would help me analyze them? It seems obvious to me that it would.

[Shy Guy]

Nocmen, at least two players have said they find Yosarian2 to be town. I find that completely unjustified.

Yosarian2, "obvious points of general strategy" is a term I'd be very cautious of using here. Scum definitely would like to use this setup to their advantage; I have done some reading here -- I remember that in a very long game called kingmaker, which also had a different lynching method (of kings), scum tried to bend the mechanic to their favor. I see no reason not to suspect scum doing the same here -- and that means that we should very much want to hear from all players on their opinions about "obvious points of general strategy".

[Shy Guy]

I am unnerved by this pledging system, and extremely unnerved by the fact that not one person besides me has expressed a modicum of concern that Yosarian2 is being consistently evaluated as town without any explicit reasoning.

This pledging system is a risky path, in that just a few pledges to a mafia member give the mafia almost as much control over lynches as the town. My previous thoughts on Ectomancer (which many have yet to comment on) not withstanding, I'm somewhat uncomfortable with his idea, and extremely uncomfortable with his application, of this pledging system.

Yosarian2, I contend that this "point of general strategy" is not non-analogous to the point you preempted opie on earlier -- surely you concede that people's opinions on the pledging system can be interpreted in one way or another?

[Shy Guy]

Ecto, roll dice and I'll accept your premise of random selection. Yosarian2 is being selected by choice. Also, what guarantee have we that Yosarian2 picks wisely? The pledging system has problems.

I find it odd Ectomancer didn't realize the game didn't have nights. I'm unsure how a self-educating player could not realize this. The rules are rather clear, to me. Then again, springlullaby also seemed to have missed them... It seems to me that springlullaby's error was more geniune, as he is new, and though I, a new player, caught it, I could see it being missed. Ectomancer's I doubt the authenticity of, somehow.

I am very conflicted on Yosarian2 and Ectomancer right now -- I want to think I was right that Ectomancer is town, and Yosarian2 is appearing very townish recently... but I have the odd suspicion I might be getting burned. Scum definitely would want to have 3 identical ballots -- and pledging seems a great way to achieve that.

Oman, I find a stark contrast:

I put yos2 at the bottom because I believe him to be town.

I'm not happy with the whole Yos going at the bottom of everyones list.

I wanna take a look at him again, because if he is scum we're in trouble.

Could you explain?

VanDamien appears to be trying to be helpful while not being so. His plan to "guarantee a win" didn't amount to anything at all, and his voting list seems to be a rough ranking of most active posters to least.

springlullaby's post seems very, very much like it is coming from a townie.

Max & Yosarian2 have questions of mine to answer.

I'd like to remind everyone we only have a couple of weeks to finish this game.

Code: Select all

VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Max
andersonw
Nocmen
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
springlullaby

Whew. Quite a long post.

[Shy Guy]

Yosarian2, that was the question. I wanted your explicit answer.

Skruffs, your suspicion of me is absurd. My suggestion for how we play the game is not categorically different than the suggestion "let's put scummy players at the TOP". "let's put town players at the BOTTOM" is an obvious point of general strategy in this set up just as its counterpart is, and your finding me scummy for suggesting we approach this game from both sides is rather perplexing. I cannot even comprehend your point of view, and that is remarkable for me.

I don't understand your comments about Yosarian2, either. You aren't making any sense at all to me. Can you explain better?

[Shy Guy]

Max has still not told me what "newbie mistakes" I have made. I would very much like to hear from him to validate that he is not accusing me of making "newbie mistakes" just to cast suspicion on me without reasoning.

I find Sarcastro's discussion of Yosarian2 and Ectomancer to make some sense. I'd like to see his more holistic discussion of the players, though.

Nocmen, why am I at the top of your ballot?

opie continues to make sense, and seem fairly to very townlike.

In general, I like Thesp's entrance post, and buy his excuse. My condolences, sir. However: why is VanDamien a good guy? I want to hear more from Thesp so I can judge him better.

andersonw doesn't seem scummy, but not particularly townie either.

I find it interesting that Sarcastro and Oman are now suspicious of Yosarian2 (Skruffs too? I can't tell); I was early when everyone was finding him townlike, because there was no justification for him being found townlike. These two(three?), however, don't seem to be disturbed by the lack of justification; they are disturbed solely because he is being found townlike. Sarcastro has a substantive point here, but I don't understand where Oman (and Skruffs?) are coming from.

Skruffs not having posted since his first post is annoying; I found his predecessor's exit very townlike, but as of yet Skruffs is completely indecipherable, and that is not a good thing. I'm going to keep him on the bottom for now, but I really want to hear from him.

Code: Select all

VanDamien
Oman
Max
Nocmen
andersonw
Thesp
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
opie
Yosarian2
Skruffs

It is hard to post short posts when the whole game and all analysis of all players takes place in just a few weeks!
Next I am going to write a post about why we need consensus.

[Shy Guy]

[col]

1

9
8
2
3
4
5
6
7
(1)

[col]

2

9
8
1
3
4
5
6
7
(2)

[col]

3

9
8
1
2
4
5
6
7
(3)

[col]

4

1
2
3
5
6
7
8
9
(4)

[col]

5

1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
(5)

[col]

6

2
3
1
4
5
7
8
9
(6)

[col]

7

2
3
1
4
5
6
8
9
(7)

[col]

8

3
1
2
4
5
6
7
9
(8)

[col]

9

3
1
2
4
5
6
7
8
(9)

The above table is a sample where the town (1,2,7 are scum, 3,4,5,6,8,9 are townies) mostly has consensus, but disagrees on the ordering of 1,2 and 3. Every townie except 3 finds 8 and 9 by far the least suspicious and 1, 2, and 3 very scummy.

But, they disagree on the ordering. So, instead of 1,2, and 3 being lynched first, 8 and 9 are!

The scum, by managing to have very minimally coordinated ordering differing from the overwhelming town opinion, eliminated the most "obvious" townies, and allowed 7 to win the game for the scum. Had the townies planned well and gotten consensus, 1,2,3 could have been lynched in order, and 7 would have been lynched just in time for a win!

So, if the scum just have a wee little bit of planning to differentiate from the town's slight disorganization (which presumably would be easy for them to do, since they can talk during the whole game!), and the town is not perfectly organized, then the scum can easily eliminate a few key townies, allowing someone in the scum group to coast by.



The pledging system is not ideal, and I am not sure what is, but I think that consensus is extremely necessary to prevent the above kind of scenario from happening.

[Shy Guy]

Nocmen, thank you for replying. I hope I may allay your concerns.

1) I am experienced at playing mafia. I said so in the sign-up thread. I don't quite understand why you think there is a false impression in this regard; if there is, I ask that all players realize that I am not new at playing mafia and that they don't take my supposedly being new into account for my advantage.

Above and beyond that, as to whether I am experienced playing in

this

particular site, I don't see how that is relevant, and this sentence will be that last comment you here from me on that matter. If anyone chooses to find me suspicious for this, that is your prerogative, but I can't see why it would make sense to do so. opie was entirely correct that I am resolved to try to post only relevant, concise posts in all games, and my doing so here is not an alteration due to alignment.

2) I don't understand how I was using fear-mongering. I could easily have made an example with 3 more townies, I used less for simplicity. I am sorry if you are confused or think you are being misled by my use of fewer players. I don't see how I am insistent that everything needs to be done my way; I have not, in fact, proposed a system under which to form consensus. I am, in part, relying upon others to come up with such a system -- clearly I am not demanding that any system of mine be used as of yet, as I have yet to formulate one. However, I do insist that we strongly consider forming consensus in some manner, as not doing so leaves ourselves at great risk of scum manipulation.

3) I was concerned that everyone was expressing Yos-town for no reason. I now see good reason to think Yosarian2 is town. I believe you are missing a significant difference.

Max, either I am very mistaken about how this setup works, or you are. From my understanding, 8 would be lynched day 1, followed by 9. If this is incorrect, I'd like you to explain further. I'm perplexed as to why my using what you believe to be a faulty example warrants a most-scummy ranking. You have still not explained what, if any, "newbie mistakes" I've made, and until you do so I have no recourse but to assume you said I made newbie mistakes to cast dispersions on me for no reason.

Skruffs, your recent post has done nothing to address mine or Yosarian2's, and I am quite frustrated by this.

[Shy Guy]

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Sarcastro
Nocmen
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
opie

Max, until you explain what "newbie mistakes" I've made, you are going to stay at number one, unless I must move you down to form consensus.

Thesp, I don't see what you see on VanDamien, can you explain more clearly?

Sarcastro, post a ballot and my suspicion of you might be greatly allayed; right now, you seem like scum waiting to spring at the last second, without explicitly revealing your suspicions or defending them. Also, don't you *have* to post a ballot!?

Until Skruffs responds to me and Yosarian2, he'll stay moved up.

opie strikes me as exceedingly townlike, and I agree with Sarcastro, to an extent, that having people other than Yosarian2 lower might be beneficial. I welcome Yosarian2 to rebut this, though.

We desperately need a method of forming consensus, even if it is simply consensus on the top couple names of the list. The best way I can think of so far is that once the mod posts the updated versions, I'll look at the lists and just suggest an ordering that seems to be near consensus.

If our opinions are too varied, or if no one else agrees we need consensus, I'll reluctantly go with the pledging system and join Yosarian2 and Ectomancer -- though I think it has many faults. Yosarian2 may be scum, he may be wrong about who is scum, and if he is scum would just love to hop on.

I highly encourage others to formulate a better consensus forming strategy than the pledging system or what I've just proposed.

We only have a couple of days -- when I am among the most active, something is wrong! Please play people, or I fear we will lose.

[Shy Guy]

Oh! I did not understand the voting system as well as I'd thought!

My previous example is incorrect, and now, truly understanding the voting system, I am much less committed to a consensus forming plan. I apologize to all those I might have confused by this, and to those who might have found me scummy out of my misunderstanding.

Thesp, I guess you were clear, but I don't understand your motivation for believing what you do. I see what you are saying, but I am completely unconvinced. It is as if you said "I think the sun is a ripe banana, because it is yellow and has spots." That is exceedingly clear -- but I still see the position as unjustified. I'd like more explanation for why you think VanDamien's proposal of an "auto-win" system leads you to believe that it is an authentic one.

[Shy Guy]

Hi fellows. Like Thesp asked, I'm still here, just nothing particularly important to say. I've only been "gone" for a few days.

I disagree that shifting votes right now is scummy, but I do think once March 3 hits anyone switching votes is bad.

I'm happy I didn't get lynched, I am trying to think really carefully about the bottom of my list -- I know I am town, and if you guys keep not lynching me, then if I just pick the right other player to keep to the last, then the town wins!

I find it really odd how Oman seemed to move me higher just because I wasn't lynched. I'm not sure what reasonable motivation he might have for doing so.

Skruffs, I actually empathize quite a bit with you now.

Nocmen asked why he should think I'm town -- I responded to all of your points, maybe you could think on it and find me more town? I'm unsure how else -- I've been trying to help out and find scum and town, but not sure what more I could do than to ask you to look at my play and see that I am trying to help.

I am going to look at my whole list comprehensively, and see what I think.

Max - Still most scummy. He said that I had a newbie "vibe" not "mistakes". But didn't point it out. So still top here.
VanDamien - I don't see why people find him town. Nothing real substantial from him.
Oman - His vote shift seemed very arbitrary. I've seen nothing from him to make me think he is town.
Sarcastro - Looked fairly town recently, made some good points about Ectomancer.
Nocmen - Seems to be trying to hunt scum more than he was earlier. I get a better impression.
Thesp - Reasonable play, but only one really substantial post from him so far. Keeps "forgetting" about game.
Skruffs - Makes good sense. Put in a lot of effort on the vote count. I am sad that he puts me so high, because I would potentially like him to be in the last two with me. I am going to shift him down.
andersonw - I find him very town. His recent posts seem distanced, but like town trying to figure things out.
Ectomancer - I think he could be town, but his ideas are overall very off to me. Pledging is an easy way to hide... overall bad vibe here, recently.
Yosarian2 - Still find him pretty town.
opie - Still find him pretty town.

Skruffs, why do you rank me so high? I still don't fully understand your reasons, and while I think I get where you are coming from, it would be much better if

you

, specifically, placed me lower, since I want you to stay around for pretty long, but I don't want you to stay around and help lynch me.

If you moved me to last, I'd move you to last, but I don't see how me moving you to last when you have me at the top makes sense -- it would mean that whoever is in the bottom three with us would ALSO have to be town for us to win, if you lynched me then. So I'd rather have to only be right about one player, than about two. I feel more confident about you than opie or Yosarian2, but keeping you around so you vote me off in the final three doesn't make logical sense.

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

[Shy Guy]

Skruffs, I am not sure what you are misunderstanding. Yosarian2 put it very well: if you are town, why don't you want to make it to the final 2 -- if you are town and make it to the final two with just one other townie, then the town wins.

I find you the most townlike of all the players right now -- and enough voters are evaluating me as very townlike right now such that it seems highly likely that I will make it to the final two. So I am trying to figure out which other player I find most town (you), and try to get them to make it to the final two with me.

You say you find opie townlike -- it seems not unlikely that he would be in the final two, also. And if you are correct in that he is town, and he and I make it, then town would win. But you *think* he is town -- you *know* you are town (if you are town).

I really don't understand why you dislike my attempt to get us to be the final two -- it seems like a more beneficial outcome for your faction, whatever your faction is, if you are in the final two players.

Your baffling reaction is making me wonder about my evaluation of you... but not very much. I still find you very, very townlike. Add that to springlullaby's exit which I found extremely townlike, and if you and I both were the final two players I think it is highly likely town would win the game.

Ectomancer, I really find you coming off badly in these talks with Sarcastro. I can't say I find you more town-like than Sarcastro any longer, and Nocmen's analysis of the players in the game seemed reasonable and genuine as well -- I very much agree with him about Thesp and VanDamian, and while I enjoy placing Yosarian2 lower, I am sympathetic with Nocmen's position on him as well. And I agree with his assessment of opie, and he has been more than reasonable with his treatment of me. It seemed he had genuine suspicion and then that suspicion was reduced.

So, slight change: Ectomancer moves up two slots. This may be the last change I make. Unless Skruffs puts me to the bottom -- then I will very likely put him to the bottom as well in attempts to make it so that we are the final two.

Code: Select all

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

Mr Stoofer, if you could put the lists up again, I'd appreciate it. I might have a try at running a simulation.

[Shy Guy]

Thesp, I guess you were clear, but I don't understand your motivation for believing what you do. I see what you are saying, but I am completely unconvinced. It is as if you said "I think the sun is a ripe banana, because it is yellow and has spots." That is exceedingly clear -- but I still see the position as unjustified. I'd like more explanation for why you think VanDamien's proposal of an "auto-win" system leads you to believe that it is an authentic one.

Thesp, could you respond to this?

I also echo Yosarian2's preceding post on this subject, I came up with that, not VanDamien...

Also, Thesp, why are you bothered by the "buddy-buddy" going on between me and Yosarian2, but not that between me and opie? I've been of the mindset that if all possible I don't want to put Yosarian2 at the very bottom of my list since pretty early on, because of Sarcastro's et. al.'s reasoning.

opie and I on the other hand have had each other both at the bottom for quite a while.

And I am trying very hard to "buddy buddy" with Skruffs, explicitly so.

I'd argue I'm trying to "align myself" with those two players to a much greater extent than with Yosarian2 -- so why did you point out the interaction between me and Yosarian2, and not that between me and the other players?

Ectomancer's rolling the die messes with my mind. I'd found him fairly suspicious because I thought he didn't pick at random, even though I initially got a pro-town read on him. Now that he has officially and actually picked at random, I'm perplexed. I'll probably think on it and try to vote again before March 3.

[Shy Guy]

Current ballots?

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw
opie
Thesp
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

[col]

Nocmen

Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs
Shy Guy
opie

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Nocmen
Yosarian2
andersonw
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
Ectomancer
opie
Skruffs
Oman
VanDamien

[col]

VanDamian

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

I believe these are the correct current ballots. If I'm wrong feel free to point it out.

I want to attempt a simulation because I am intellectually curious about IRV, and I want to see what the results will be with the newest ballots.

Before I do it, some comments:

• I find Thesp's latest posts disingenuous. His voting seemed to move me and Yosarian2 up for little reason, and when I asked him about it, he responded to the other part of my post, but not the part about me & Yosarian2 vs. me & opie vs. me & Skruffs. I don't find his position about VanDamien justified at all, and him apologizing for that doesn't make me find him more townlike.
  
• I want to re-read and re-evaluate opie. Especially if he and I end up being in the bottom two again, I want to make sure I find him more town-like than whomever else is in the bottom three.
  
• I find Nocmen reasonable and more townlike recently. I find that it would be hard for scum to put me and opie at the reverse ends of the ballot for scum if we are both town. So I find that Nocmen is probably town unless he and opie are scum together.
  
• I'm very confused about Ectomancer.
  
• I get a very strong pro-town vibe from Skruffs -- I think I'll probably end up putting him to the 2nd to bottom, and if he puts me at the bottom I'd put him at the bottom. I very much want to hear his response to my recent posts. I'll be terribly annoyed with him if he is pro-town and opie isn't, and we lose because opie and me were in the final two instead of Skruffs and me.

Next post I'll try and run a simulation.

[Shy Guy]

[col]

andersonw

Max
Oman
Ectomancer
VanDamian
Nocmen
Opie
Sarcastro
Thesp
Skruffs
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

[col]

Ectomancer

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Shy Guy
Yosarian2

[col]

Max

Shy Guy
Sarcastro
Ectomancer
Yosarian2
andersonw
opie
Thesp
Oman
VanDamien
Skruffs
Nocmen

[col]

Nocmen

Ectomancer
Oman
Sarcastro
Thesp
VanDamien
andersonw
Max
Yosarian2
Skruffs
Shy Guy
opie

[col]

Oman

Nocmen
Max
Shy Guy
Sarcastro
opie
Ectomancer
Skruffs
VanDamien
Thesp
Yosarian2
andersonw

[col]

opie

Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
Skruffs
VanDamien
andersonw
Thesp
Max
Yosarian2
Shy Guy

Sarcastro

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Nocmen
Max
andersonw
Oman
Thesp
VanDamien
opie
ShyGuy
Skruffs

[col]

Shy Guy

Max
VanDamien
Oman
Thesp
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Skruffs

Ectomancer
shy guy
VanDamien
Nocmen
Oman
andersonw
Sarcastro
Max
Thesp
Yosarian2
opie

[col]

Thesp

Max
Nocmen
Yosarian2
andersonw
Sarcastro
Shy Guy
Ectomancer
opie
Skruffs
Oman
VanDamien

[col]

VanDamian

Ectomancer
Yosarian2
Shy Guy
Max
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Oman
opie
andersonw
Thesp
Skruffs

[col]

Yosarian2

VanDamien
Thesp
Skruffs
andersonw
opie
Oman
Nocmen
Sarcastro
Max
Ectomancer
Shy Guy

Day 1

Round 1:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp)
VanDamien (Ectomancer, Yosarian2)
Ectomancer (Nocmen, opie, Sarcastro, Skruffs, VanDamien)
Shy Guy (Max)
Nocmen (Oman)

Round 2:

Shy Guy and Nocmen Eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman)
VanDamien (Ectomancer, Yosarian2)
Ectomancer (Nocmen, opie, Sarcastro, Skruffs, VanDamien, Max)

Round 3:

VanDamien eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman, Yosarian2, Ectomancer)
Ectomancer (Nocmen, opie, Sarcastro, Skruffs, VanDamien, Max)

Tie -- Max had fewer votes in the pervious round, Ectomancer is lynched day 1.

Day 2

Round 1:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp)
VanDamien (Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Nocmen (Oman, opie)
Oman (Nocmen)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Round 2:

Oman eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp)
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Nocmen)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Nocmen (Oman, opie)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Round 3:

VanDamien eliminated:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Nocmen)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Nocmen (Oman, opie, Yosarian2)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Round 4:

Shy Fuy and Yosarian2 eliminated:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Nocmen, VanDamien)
Nocmen (Oman, opie, Yosarian2, Max, Skruffs, Sarcastro)

Nocmen is lynched day 2.

Day 3

Round 1:

Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman)
VanDamien (Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)
Sarcastro (opie)

Round 2:

VanDamien and Sarcastro eliminated:
Max (andersonw, Shy Guy, Thesp, Oman, opie, Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Max, Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien)

Max is lynched day 3.

Day 4

Round 1:

Oman (andersonw)
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Shy Guy)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien, Thesp)
Sarcastro (opie)

Round 2:

Sarcastro and Oman eliminated:
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Shy Guy, andersonw, opie)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien, Thesp)

Round 3:

Shy Guy eliminated:
VanDamien (Yosarian2, Shy Guy, andersonw, opie, Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, VanDamien, Thesp)

VanDamien is lynched day 4.

Day 5

Round 1:

Oman (andersonw, Shy Guy)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)
Sarcastro (opie)
Thesp (Yosarian2)

Round 2:

Sarcastro and Thesp eliminated:
Oman (andersonw, Shy Guy, opie, Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Skruffs, Oman)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)

Round 2:

Shy Guy eliminated (less votes Day 4 round 3):
Oman (andersonw, Shy Guy, opie, Yosarian2, Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp, Oman)

Oman is lynched day 5.

Day 6

Round 1:

Shy Guy (Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)
Sarcastro (opie)
Thesp (Yosarian2, Shy Guy)
opie (andersonw)

Round 2:

Shy Guy, Sarcastro, and opie eliminated:
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro, Thesp)
Thesp (Yosarian2, Shy Guy, Skruffs, opie, andersonw)

Thesp is lynched day 6.

Day 7

Round 1:

Skruffs(Yosarian2)
Shy Guy (Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro)
Sarcastro (opie, Shy Guy)
opie (andersonw)

Tie among all candidates except one, extensive Rule 13 application, we go back and find who has been voted for least recently:
Yosarian2, Day 6, round 2.
opie, Shy Guy, Day 6, round 1.
So Skruffs is eliminated.

Round 2:

Skruffs eliminated:
Shy Guy (Skruffs)
Yosarian2 (Sarcastro)
Sarcastro (opie, Shy Guy)
opie (andersonw, Yosarian2)

Round 3:

Shy Guy and Yosarian2 eliminated:
Sarcastro (opie, Shy Guy, Skruffs)
opie (andersonw, Yosarian2, Sarcastro)

Tie, check previous rounds:
Day 7 round 2, same number of votes.
Day 7 round 1, Sarcastro has more votes.

Sarcastro is lynched day 7.

Day 8

Round 1:

Shy Guy (Skruffs)
opie (andersonw)
Skruffs (opie, Yosarian2)
andersonw (Shy Guy)

Tie among all candidates except one, extensive Rule 13 application, we go back and find who has been voted for least recently:
opie, Day 8 round 3.
Shy Guy, Day 8 round 2.
andersonw is eliminated.

Round 2:

Shy Guy (Skruffs)
opie (andersonw)
Skruffs (opie, Yosarian2, Shy Guy)

Skruffs is lynched day 8.

Day 9

Round 1:

opie (andersonw)
andersonw (Shy Guy, opie, Yosarian2)

andersonw is lynched day 9.

Day 10

Round 1:

Yosarian2 (Shy Guy, opie)
opie (Yosarian2)

Yosarian2 is lynched day 10.

opie and Shy Guy remain.

[Shy Guy]

Assuming my ballots and iterations are correct, opie and me would be the last two, again.

But the balance is very precarious -- there are a number of ballots which, if shifted by one, would alter the outcome in unpredictable ways.

I'd be very suspicious from now on if someone drastically alters their ballot without very good reasoning, and would likely alter my ballot to countermand theirs.

If opie is town, we win the game. I'll be doing a re-read after I make this post to see if I think he should be bottom-most instead of Yosarian2.

Day 8 is a pivotal point for me in that if Skruffs and I had each other listed bottom most, I think Skruffs and I would progress to the final 2. So again, I await his input there.

Skruffs, really think hard: I don't see how it could possibly be disadvantageous to you to make it to the final 2 -- do you really think opie has a better chance of being town than of you being town?

After doing that simulation, I empathize more with Ectomancer's view. I don't think I'll be shifting my ballot unless:

1. Skruffs shifts me to bottom and explains why he resisted doing so earlier, then I'd shift him to the bottom.
   
2. I read opie and Yosarian2 and am struck drastically at how Yosarian2 is more town than opie and should be in the final 2 with me instead of opie, then I'd shift Yosarian2 down one slot to below opie.
   
3. Someone shifts their ballot, and I feel like I should shift mine to rank them higher, to countermand their last minute switching.

[Shy Guy]

I skimmed the game, and re-read opie and Yosarian2 fully, and a few of their more controversial posts in context. I can't say one sticks out as significantly more likely to be scum than the other. The one thing that really irks me is opie's mention of Methodical Mafia 1 and how the scum had night choices.

opie, how did you know that? And why did you think it would apply here?

Yosarian2 there is nothing specific I want to point out as scummy, but no compelling reason to put him below opie.

I welcome other's opinions and thoughts about opie vs. Yosarian2, and welcome them to share their thoughts on each other.

In general, I am very comfortable and pleased with my ballot, and especially since I think it is bad in general to change late (and will be suspicious of those who make significant changes late) I am going to leave it for now.

---

However, I re-read Skruffs and springlullaby, and while I disagree with Skruffs on many things I am pretty confident he is town. I repeat, if he puts me at the bottom, I'd put him at the bottom, because I am most confident we would win if Skruffs and I made it to the final 2.

Skruffs, I will say it again for further emphasis and clarity: I can't see why it would be bad for you to put me last and have me put you last. Living longer = pro-your team. And I believe that your team is town, so I want you to live longer. Why do you not want to live longer??

[Shy Guy]

Sarcastro, I am insistent Skruffs put me lowest, because of the Day 10 scenario. opie's name could be replaced with any player, but you get the point:

If my ballot is:
opie
Skruffs

opie's is:
Skruffs
Shy Guy

and Skruffs's is:
Shy Guy
opie

Then at Day 10 we have a 3 way tie, and have to resort to tie-breakers. If tie-breakers make me lynched, that is a horrible scenario for me -- I'm much more comfortable having to be correct that one person is town rather than two.

If tie breakers would make Skruffs lynched, there is no reason to have done it in the first place.

Only if tie breakers made opie lynched would it be a benefit to put Skruffs last -- and I'm not willing to rely on tie-breakers on the last day to ensure a town win.

I understand Skruffs has found me scummy... but I'm terribly unsure how that makes sense. Even that aside, assume he does find me very scummy: right now, he would be lynched day 8 or so, and I would make it to the final two.

He has two options: do nothing, or put me last. If he does nothing, I'll still make it to the final two, and he won't.

If he puts me last, I'll still make it to the final two (zero change) but he has a greater chance of making it to the final two. Simply from a costs-benefits analysis, he has nothing to lose by putting me last, and potentially a great gain.

---

Nocmen, why do you find opie more townlike than Yosarian2 and Skruffs?

All players, if you could point to substantive reasons and arguments for your placement of opie, Yosarian2, Skruffs, I'd appreciate it. Especially with Yosarian2 and opie, I'm trying hard to figure out who to trust.

---


I've been thinking about this game in the back of my mind, and an opie-Nocmen-Thesp group is not terribly unlikely to me, partially because they've both changed their ballots recently to support opie.

Thesp & Nocmen's recent ballot changes support this -- Nocmen moves me and opie down -- since I have opie last, keeping me around is good. Thesp moves Yosarian2 way up and me slightly up -- also a reasonable scum strategy -- removing opie's competitors from the bottom two, and making it more sure opie stays around.

Then again a Yosarian2 scum group doesn't seem terribly unlikely either; many have him low, and they might be hoping a slight shift near the end will knock Yosarian2 into the final two for the win.

---

Something that bugs me is that if scum don't have someone making it into the final two right now, they have no reason NOT to be frantically changing their ballots -- Day 0 is our only time for voting and impacting the game, and it now could end any time; it doesn't matter how scummy we find the ballot changers, if they don't change their ballots and there isn't scum in the bottom two (currently that means opie would have to be scum -- or me but I'm not) they lose. So the fact that there hasn't been a massive flurry worries me, it indicates the scum might be winning.

Maybe this is just paranoia on my part -- maybe the scum are Max Oman and VanDamien and they are just screwed, and that's why there isn't a flurry of ballot changes. But since there isn't, either scum are out of reach of winning, or ARE winning, and the second prospect worries me greatly.

---

All this contributes to me wanting Skruffs in the final two with me rather than Yosarian2 or opie, in addition to me having a very strong pro-town read on Skruffs.

Skruffs, I again greatly encourage you to put me last, so I'll then put you last.

[Shy Guy]

I don't find Ectomancer's suggestion to be viable.

Yosarian2, I find it interesting that you say that you are OK with not being in the final two -- that could be you just saying that to make me think you are more town though. I find it odd that you aren't more desirous of being in the final two. I'm also incredibly paranoid about your whole post -- what if you and opie are scum together? Then you'd be very OK with opie being bottom two instead of you, and you'd be perfectly fine keeping it that way. Then again, you could just be a townie who finds me and opie to be townish and are trying to give me good solid advice. Oh, mafia makes me go insane sometmes...

Yosarian2, explicitly, what do you think about Skruffs, and why?

opie's explanation makes sense.

[Shy Guy]

Code: Select all

Thesp
Max
VanDamien
Oman
Ectomancer
Nocmen
Sarcastro
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

I'm on my way out the door, but I find Thesp's talk and those supporting it very suspicious. Expect a more detailed post from me in a few hours, I'm literally leaving my house right now.

[Shy Guy]

I will make a few posts. The first is in response to Ectomancer's plan:

We dont want to do it twice.

Do you honestly believe that scum is holding out until the 11th hour? When the 11th hour is when we are [/i]most[/i] interested in altered ballots? I dont buy that arguement. Balloting has settled down, and we are experience very minor adjustments.

I disagree strongly -- look at Thesp's post right above you.

You clearly dont understand the idea, or the concept. Everyone chooses 2 different people

than their current bottom 2

.

I understand very much indeed. I like Yosarian2 and opie as the bottom -- I could see putting Skruffs and andersonw there -- but unless Skruffs and I would be the final two, then I don't like switching my final 2 at all.

So yeah Andersonw and ShyGuy, I dont think you've actually looked at the idea, or maybe just didnt understand it.

I'm fairly sure I understand it, and I disagree with it -- in your original presentation, I disagree strongly with your first assumption.

Assumption #1: Scum has their list prepared properly. Oh, they might shift people around a bit, but in ways that wont affect the overall outcome.

I strongly disagree with this -- I think scum are about to try and get a shift going to make their buddies last to the final two. Thesp's shift is indicative of this to me -- as is your proposition, honestly. What's not to say that you are trying to dislodge townies from the final 2 and hopefully get scum there?

Also, Ectomancer, we might get caught by the deadline with our pants down -- what if half of us have switched and half haven't, and deadline hits? Such a patterned, wholesale rearrangement of ballots is something I do not support at this stage.

[Shy Guy]

This post is in response to Thesp's suspicion of me:

I find Thesp's latest posts disingenuous. His voting seemed to move me and Yosarian2 up for little reason, and when I asked him about it, he responded to the other part of my post, but not the part about me & Yosarian2 vs. me & opie vs. me & Skruffs.

I didn't think it worth commenting on. After all, when I've been unable to reproduce precisely why I feel VanDamien's approach was more townlike than yours (though note that Sarcastro has seen the same), you've skewered me for it. Why bother here?

If you can't make any argument for

why

you find VanDamien's idea to be a pro-town one, I don't just think you are wrong to assert it,

you are wrong

to assert it. Me not buying your assumption doesn't mean that I am unjustified, your are unjustified not to explain the reasoning behind your assumption. As Yosarian2 pointed out, VanDamien didn't even propose the thing you are attributing to him -- and you didn't even really address this. I've asked you to speak in detail many times about

why

VanDamien's way of talking makes sense, or

why

his proposal makes him seem like a townie -- and you've categorically refused to do so.

I'd be very suspicious from now on if someone drastically alters their ballot without very good reasoning, and would likely alter my ballot to countermand theirs.

Does this set up red flags for anyone else?

He's strenuously arguing for the status quo

largely because he's in the bottom two

That is an entirely unjustified assumption. I support the status quo because after running a simulation, I realized just how easy this process is to scum manipulation. I also empathize with Ectomancer's 223, again after running a simulation and seeing all the close calls.

and is outright threatening towards anyone who is uncomfortable with it.

This is precisely the sort of thing that mafia would want to do in this position, if they're one of the final two.

Is this not the sort of thing town would do if they were in the final two and afraid of mafia influence? Wait -- yes it is, and you admit that:

I can understand that town might make the same comment

Even admitting that town might make the same sort of statement I am, you use it as evidence to find me scummy. Thesp, do you not, in self-reflection, find it the least bit peculiar to do so?

but it coupled with creeping uncertainty of Shy Guy, this worries me greatly.

Feel free to justify this creeping uncertainty. You haven't. You are either townie playing on a bad gut instinct, or scum without any valid reason to think I'm scummy. I'm leaning the latter, you've refused to explain and respond to many things in this game, and have tried to explain away your absence numerous times by saying you forgot about the game. I find you disingenous.

I'm moving him to the top of my list with prejudice - I don't think Shy Guy should be in the bottom two

Again, feel free to provide arguments for this. The most I've seen is a sneaking suspicion about me + Yosarian2 -- which when I responded to and asked why you didn't see a connection between me and opie, you couldn't find any way to respond to.

and his insistence that things not change worries me greatly, especially as seen here:

In general, I am very comfortable and pleased with my ballot, and especially since I think it is bad in general to change late (and will be suspicious of those who make significant changes late) I am going to leave it for now.

This is a thinly veiled threat towards anyone who thinks Shy Guy should not be in the last two, as is this:

I don't understand how my threat is at all thinly veiled -- I've explicitly said that if anyone changes their ballot in absence of great reasoning to do so, they're scummy. And I'd have found you just as scummy if you decided to move Skruffs to the top -- or Yosarian2 to the bottom -- or anyone, for a lack of reasoning. You moving anyone would be just as suspicious as you moving me.

Something that bugs me is that if scum don't have someone making it into the final two right now, they have no reason NOT to be frantically changing their ballots -- Day 0 is our only time for voting and impacting the game, and it now could end any time; it doesn't matter how scummy we find the ballot changers, if they don't change their ballots and there isn't scum in the bottom two (currently that means opie would have to be scum -- or me but I'm not) they lose. So the fact that there hasn't been a massive flurry worries me, it indicates the scum might be winning.

It poisons the well, and it suggests not only that if there's anyone who challenges the status quo, they are likely to be scum, but that it should cement the idea that Shy Guy is town. I don't like it one bit.

I'm not sure how I'm trying to cement the idea that I am town there -- or how a "well" is being "poisoned" (idiom?). However, I am asserting that anyone who challenges the status quo at this point in the game, without explicit good reasoning for doing so, is scummy. I'm not suggesting that, I'm outright saying it.

I still strongly, strongly support VanDamien as one of the last two (as I trust him way the heck more than any of you), and would recommend people give it serious consideration.

Yet you've never justified this or explained more clearly, and have in fact brushed aside numerous requests on my part that you do so!

I'm moving thesp up until we see the algorithm he promised

I didn't actually have one, I was just trying to make the scum second-guess themselves. I toyed with one for a little bit before deciding it wasn't really feasible. Sorry to get your hopes up.

Thesp, are you admitting to lying here?

I'm a bit more convinced in my suspicion of Yosarian2/Shy Guy.

I think he's town, and I think you're scum, so therefore I must be scum with him?

I'm not sure if that's scum logic or just the kind of typical paranoid thinking you get in situations without many hard facts, but either way, it's not helpful.

I admit there may be some paranoia, but I've been suspicious of you before now, and with my growing suspicion of Shy Guy, founded or not, coupled with my fear that you're his partner, your statement reinforces that suspicion.

Here, Thesp admits his suspicion may be completely unfounded and/or based on paranoia. I wonder, why make such a drastic ballot shift based on such shaky suspicion if you are town, Thesp?

Shy Guy, why do you think Yosarian2 is town?

I'll respond to this in a subsequent post.

In summation, Thesp has accused me of being scummy with little to no reasoned evidence for doing so -- his posts on a whole have a lack of reasoned thinking. He has failed on numerous occasions to respond to questions directly addressed to him, instead ignoring it or brushing it aside and responding only to those points which he might use to further his own motives. Finally, he has tried to stir the pot at the last possible moment, ostensibly in attempts to get Shy Guy-scum out of the final two -- but from his selective attention to arguments and lack of logical clarity, I believe it is more likely that he has an anti-town agenda. At the very least, he is extremely misguided in his assumptions about who is town and who is not.

[Shy Guy]

This post is to respond to Sarcastro's uncertainty about me:

Thesp's analysis of Shy Guy worries me a bit, though. I really felt that Shy Guy was town before

Could you point out what about Thesp's "analysis" you find appealing? I'm troubled by your (potential) change of heart, though it does seem to be genuine.

but his weird attempt at a bargain with Skruffs just seems, well, weird. He did provide some justification for it, but I'm wondering if I wouldn't prefer Opie and Skruffs or VD and Skruffs (or Opie and VD, for that matter). Any of those three combinations for the final three is fine with me (as is any combination of one of them with me, but I don't think that's going to happen). If that's not possible, Shy Guy could be substituted for one of them.

I'm not going to change my vote yet, because I don't want to screw up people who are in the middle of some kind of analysis, but I think I'm going to move Shy Guy up a couple spots pretty soon. Of course, Opie and Shy Guy in the final two is still good, so I don't want to move Shy Guy up if it would cause anyone but Skruffs or VD to move into the final two.

I'd obviously prefer to be in the final two, but of those three, I'm most okay with an opie-Skruffs pairing. Thesp has greatly failed to do so -- can you explan why you find VD townlike?

I'm still worried about Yos. I don't like how he's getting so far when nobody seems to be willing to go out on a limb and say they actually have a pro-town read on him. It feels like people are just putting him near the bottom by default, and under no circumstances should he be in the final two. I'd also like to point out to both Shy Guy and Skruffs that if you guys had Yos closer to the top, it would probably help Skruffs make it futher.

As I've said, I am loathe to make major adjustments at this time, without incredibly great reasoning to back them. However, this

may

merit some consideration. It seems it might be of more use to have Yosarian2 consider moving Skruffs down further.

[Shy Guy]

This post is in response to Skruffs's doubt about my plan:

Skruffs, perhaps I was incorrect -- I was fairly sure that if I put you to the bottom, day 8 you would not be lynched, and then move on to the final 2. If that is an incorrect simulation... I am displeased, because I think it is regrettable that you are not in the final two. Maybe it was true back when you I ran the simulation, but not true currently? Possibly I was just wrong. Perhaps andersonw and Yosarian2 might be willing to consider placing you down further? If not, that's a shame... I feel pretty good about opie, so if it is myself and him, I am not extremely troubled -- but you and me would be the ideal scenario, for me.

Skruffs, I'm not sure what are trying to make of me ranking highly those ranking you low -- while I do believe you are town, I don't at all believe that believing you to be town is a town tell or something of that sort -- I don't think ordering my ballot in terms of those most suspicious of you to least has much sense. Those who are more suspicious of you I find to be townlike for reasons independent to their ranking of you.

[Shy Guy]

In this post, some general thoughts:

I find Nocmen's posts to be eminently reasonable recently. I feel like he reevaluated the game and really got his act together. His positions and statements make sense now, to me.

I find Max's post and suspicion of Thesp to also make good sense. My main reason for being suspicious of Max was his marking me as making "newbie mistakes" without ever justifying it despite my numerous requests that he do so -- maybe I am relying on that too strongly. To be fair, though, he has never gone back and justified that statement.

I'm unnerved by Sarcastro's sympathy to Thesp's suspicion of me, as I don't think his suspicion has much merit.

Ideally, were I to re-order my ballot, it would be something like:

Thesp
VanDamien
Oman
Max
Ectomancer
Sarcastro
andersonw
Nocmen
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

However, I am internally conflicted, because while I think the above would be a more ideal ballot, at this point I don't think votes should be changed unless it is a policy response to an arbitrary ballot change, OR if there is very good reasoning supporting the ballot change, and the result of the ballot change has been simulated and understood.

Especially of late, my posts have been rather elongated, which surprises and unnerves me. I think the nature of this game -- compacting a full game into a month -- is causing this to be so. There has just been so much to respond to -- and we are nearing the end of the game, and I don't want us to become derailed and lose in the last moments. Also, I've been using the quote feature a bit more than I usually do -- so my posts appear unnaturally long to me. Part of why I try to make my posts short is because I think logic is more transparent when it is concise -- I think everyone making shorter posts would be good, in general. The other part is that typing too much and thinking too much about who might be "scum" aren't particularly useful expenditures of my time.

In any event, I'm off for a bit now, too much typing and thinking! I'll try to outline why I find Yosarian2 to be town-like at my next opportunity.

[Shy Guy]

Sarcastro, I re-read your posts, and you've done similar to what Thesp has done, which for me is not good enough to come near convincing me VanDamien is town, or even that your opinions have basis. You both have said that his proposal feels genuine, natural, and flowing from his thoughts about the game. I want to know

why

it feels like that to you guys. I myself have the exact opposite reaction -- he proposed something to look helpful, and then nothing came of it! No matter how he proposed it, it came out to nothing. For me, his proposal is a null tell, at best. What about his proposal makes you feel this way? Why does it seem like it is town motivated? What do you think of nothing coming from it? What about his phraseology leads you to believe he is honest town? What about the rest of his play?

---

Thesp, your recent post comes off as a frustrated explosion. I'm not sure what I could have said that would cause a different reaction; your post 365 seems to have pre-judged any response I might have made before I made it. I disagree with many of the assertions you've made in your response. I don't think it is at all ludacrous to say we should ignore things you can't provide explanations for -- if you can't provide reasons for thinking something, we can't evaluate its truth or lack thereof, or assess the legitimacy of the position you hold. I don't think I'm mis-characterizing your response, I disagree that a calculated approach is indicative of a scum approach... I could go on, in a little more detail. But with your current attitude, I'm not sure what good I'd be doing. If you think some good might come of me responding to your post in a detailed way, let me know.

Your emotional reaction makes me believe you are grasping scum. At best, you are a player playing on little more than feelings and hunches, whose evaluations can't be based on much more than the same.

---

On Yosarian2:

He's been cautious of everyone. Even coming out of the gates, in his post 3, he was suspicious of my alleged play-style, not willing to let anything slide. He was particularly critical of me early -- for good reasons (unlike some other's later-formed suspicions...). He didn't want me to lurk, he found my selective questioning to make sense, he continued beating on both doors until he was satisfied -- he seemed very much to be legitimately trying to determine my alignment.

As the game progressed, he called out lurkers (post 11 of his), reacted naturally to Ectomancer's pledge to him, pointing out several substantive problems with it, even though Ectomancer was pledging to him.

He reacted very reasonably (31) when Oman and Skruffs, among others, decided to find him suspicious for being found townlike, explaining how it is a fallacy to find someone scummy solely because others find them to not be scummy.

Even recently, when I prodded him about why he didn't want to be in the last two, and criticized my logic about the scum changing their ballots at the last minute in a reasonable way.

To sum up, he seemed to really be trying to discern my alignment, and did not let me off easily at all in the beginning of the game. He has treated other's similarly. He has defended himself well, with logic, and has had reasonable positions about game-theory type stuff throughout the game. Also, he has reacted in what seems a very town-like way to Ectomancer's pledging to him, initially being very suspicious but then later having a reasonable suspicion that Ectomancer is town because he couldn't see scum pleding to a townie (ostensibly Yos2 is a townie from his POV) in the way Ectomancer did.

Even so, I am extremely hesitant to put him last, for Sarcastro's reason that Yosarian2 is very tricky and may be deceiving us.

---

Of note in the above -- I've demonstrated how I could find someone's suspicion of me very reasonable, unlike Thesp claims in 378 (Thesp: "I suspect there will never be anything which will reach your level of "reasoned evidence" to suspect you, even if there is actually good reason"). I in fact find Yosarian2's suspicion of me a town-tell -- he didn't want to let some things slide, and had good reasons for prodding me.

Also, I again plead Thesp to answer why he was not at all bothered by the connection between myself and opie, and was instead bothered only by the connection between myself and Yosarian2. I've asked you to respond to this numerous times, and you never have.

GAH. Too much text.

[Shy Guy]

Thesp, you didn't ask me to elaborate in critiquing 378, I assume we at least agree that that wouldn't serve much use?

I find your allegation that I am "full of crap" amusing and unjustified.

However, truly, I am sorry for any way I've contributed to your poor mood. I hope you feel better.

Do you want me to talk about the other players, or am I being ignored?

My most recently posted ideal ballot is a good indication of

who

I think is scummy and town-like, and I'd be willing to explain

why

if people are interested and listening.

[Shy Guy]

This is a judgment call, and I find it kind of ridiculous that you're not willing to just take my word for it that he sounded to me like he believed what he was saying.

I find this sentence completely absurd. You find it ridiculous that I am not willing to just take your word for something in mafia!?!? Taking something at someone's word is in direct contrast to the basic tenets of this game! Being annoyed at me or finding me suspicious for not taking you at your word on something is insane!

For you, that is one of few points I have against you, so it is less of a big deal. But with Thesp, his reliance on me taking him at his word is a part of a bigger picture of scumminess -- including a last minute huge vote swing.

Sarcastro, you have been more reasonable, and your vote change is more moderate, but for real? Not taking you at your word?

Note: If you find the above unpersuasive, and think I should have taken you at your word: I am town. You have my word.

Shy Guy - Why have you waited until now to go on the initiative and start attacking people?

I wouldn't say I've not scumhunted this game, I don't think that is an at all reasonable categorization. Why have I gone positively offensive against Thesp? He switched his ballot monumentally just now. I find the interpretation that he is scum making a last ditch effort extremely appealing. No one has done something as monumentally suspicious as Thesp's shift -- until Ectomancer.

Ectomancer, you've committed yourself to a random pledging system. Going against that merits you the #1 spot. You've supported your choice of a random pledging system all game; switching your vote at this late hour because it suits you is hypocrisy of the greatest sort, you definitely can't say you are randomly picking now. There is nothing you can say or do that will convince me you're not scum grasping towards victory. You've used a random picking system all game so as to not have to defend your ballot, and now are straying away from it. It is inconceivable to me that a townie would do such a thing.

Code: Select all

Ectomancer
Thesp
VanDamien
Oman
Max
Sarcastro
Nocmen
andersonw
Skruffs
Yosarian2
opie

I made the Nocmen and Max changes as well because of the reasons I stated, I think they are excellent reasons. I'll defend those changes vigorously if asked about them. Even if Max keeps me high and Nocmen is misled into putting me high, I believe those two are more likely to be town than I'd previously though, and should stick around longer. I'm a fair bit too busy to run a simulation, but with the recent shifts, I believe I'm no longer in the final 2, currently. That's not a step forwards for the town.

Oh, and Max -- of course I'd like you to move me down. Ultimately its your decision.

I strongly strongly advise against moving Ectomancer down. I highly encourage everyone to place Ectomancer first. Again, it is inconceivable to me that Ectomancer is town and abandoned his strongest held position all game.

[Shy Guy]

Sarcastro, I vehemently disagree on both counts.

Let us take an extreme example: I could claim that I have a horribly hard time articulating my suspicions, and ask you to take my word that all my suspicions in this game are my honest suspicions. X looks pro town because this post seems honest. Can't say why though. Y seems scummy because this post seems like he is lying. Can't say why though. Z's bit of game theory stikes me as coming from town. Can't say why though.... etc.

I would not be asking you to take me at my word that I am *right* -- but I would be asking you to take me at my word that I am truly representing my suspicions. In sum, I would be asking you to premise that I am town, and trying to honestly play the game.

Similarly, asking me to take your word on a suspicion is asking me to assume that you are a townie and trying to honestly play the game. That is not an assumption I am comfortable making.

---

Ectomancer's main tenet of play this game has been his pledging system. That's the one thing he's argued for, stood by, and claimed was the best idea because it was immune to scum manipulation. He didn't have to do nearly as much defending of his suspect lists as most other players, because most of what anyone talked with Ectomancer about was his *concept* of random pleding.

If his break away from it is to be accepted, we are establishing optimal scum play in this game:

1) use a quacky, hard to believe, random system for all of day 0 before deadline window.
2) spend all your time defending that system.
3) then at the last minute change your ballot to best serve the interests of the mafia.
4) Profit.

I believe Ectomancer is employing that exact system.

Accepting his departure from the random pledging system is extremely misguided.

[Shy Guy]

Just for complete truthfulness -- I thought I'd be eliminated early with the new ballots -- but some quick mental simulation shows Ectomancer eliminated day 1, and then some non-me person eliminated day 2, etc.

However, if Sarcastro translates finding me absurd to finding me scummy, or Nocmen finds me disingenuous, or someone else puts me higher, then I'd be eliminated early. Right now there is a great deal of town polarity re: me, 6 players have me near the bottom, 6 have me near the top. The 5 non-me players that have me near the bottom have the significant distinction of being

right

, but obviously as scum I'd be lying about that.

[Shy Guy]

Argh. Why is everyone changing their votes now? I think the town would probably have won the game the game if it had ended two days ago, but there's a lot of wierd stuff going on now.

Indeed.

Well done scum. I was pretty much categorically wrong about who the scum were -- but then again I was right on Yosarian2 and opie.

I meant what I said about Thesp's and Ectomancer's switches, that was not me trying to townify OMGUS. I'll have to think about this game and see if I can modify my play so people don't, for reasons not understandable to me, suddenly decide me and the people I think are town are scum at the last minute of games.

I'm very disappointed with how the last couple of in real life days played out.

Sigh. Oh well. Well done scum. Skruffs and springlullaby had me completely fooled.