Mini #556 - The Most Excellent People Ever - Called.

[PJ.]

I disagree that no one brings up Day 1 discussion in following days, and if Rosso gives me premission I will link you to at least 5. I know I can find 5 Becaus a game I'm currently in just did it and a few other I have been in in the recent past, that have sense ended. Also Day 1 breadcrumbs are easier to find when there is time to actually breadcrumb, ok Einstein?


Anyway,

Unvote, Vote: Jester

He seems to be going with the flow and trying to make himself more credible by bring up "something mith posted 100 years ago" I really haven't liked Jesters play at all. It seems he has a plan. Town doesn't have very distinct plans, sure they plan to lynch scum but that is more a goal then a plan.

[Urzassedatives]

Whart of Korlashes play makes you think him town?

[RangeroftheNorth]

Generally, I hate game play on day 1. It accomplishes very little save for random discussions of nonsensical crap. I'm happy to be involved in any attempt to change day 1 into something that doesn't last for 20 pages and is instead over in less that than 10. I honestly would be happy with any plan that involves trying a new way to play day one. Maybe a quick lynch would be worse for the town in the long run, but there's also a possibility that it will give us just as much information with the huge amount of hassle that day 1 generally tends to involve.

Panzerjager's last post incorporates an idea that I really hate. Why on earth should townies not try to have a plan? Pro-town players should always be looking for new ways to find scum, and simply talking randomly and hoping that scum will reveal themselves to you seems truly naive. Especially when you assume that anyone who is actually trying to improve the town's chance of winning must be scum. Jester's ideas may be far off of anything correct, but that doesn't mean he's scum just for having some.

[Urzassedatives]

I agree almost 100%.

When I play in a game of mafia, every move I make is calculated to have some sort of effect on the game, right down to being abusive and abrasive... I swear I'm a nice guy IRL. I tend to use a lot of traps and the like to generate my reads. Does that make me scum, mr. Panzer?

[PJ.]

It's alright that you use traps and "new tactics" to try to catch scum, but in my humble opinion, those traps have more of a chance of catching the stupid then the scummy. The very idea of trapping someone and creating this grand scheme seems like you think you a much smarter then everyone else who plays mafia. I'd much rather be patient and trudge through random discussion and try to manage a decent lynch out of Day 1. Being patient and waiting for an opening to attack has done be pretty well over the years(In addition to playing mafia, I'm a semi-pro MMA fighter). In short, trapping people only works when your either far more experianced and/or more intelligent then those you're trying to trap and generally those that meticulously plan are the ones with more information. I think I just had an epiphany.

Unvote, Vote:RotN

for the original putting Korlash at -1.

P.S. I think Korlash is town due to not seeing anything that I would consider scummy. I am not gonna vote/lynch korlash at this point but may consider it in the future.

[RangeroftheNorth]

You can vote for me if you would like. It sure as hell is a lot more logical than your last vote, but I stand by my action. I don't think vast amounts of discussion on day one accomplish anything.

I just did a brief analysis of past mini games. According to my random sampling of thirty past games, 76.67% of those lynched on day one are pro-town.* Assuming and average of three scum in a 12 player game, this is no better than picking a random person day one and lynching them. The only thing it is possible to gain from day one is a huge amount of random conversation about nothing. In this huge amount of random discussion, it's likely that someone will say something stupid, and will thus be lynched. This stupid comment will not indicate that he is scum. It's more likely to indicate that he's sick and tired of how completely pointless everything that's been going on has been. Alternatively, someone will become tired of reading pages and pages of completely useless posting, stop reading the thread, and be lynched for lurking. This doesn't seem productive to me. To me, it seems boring.

*My analysis was conducted fairly quickly at 2:00 in the morning. It wasn't very thorough, and didn't differentiate between games that started in night and those that started in day, something which should be taken into account. I will consider extending this research when it is not the middle of the night.

[PJ.]

Some then you wouldn't mind if I rolled a Dice and we lynched that person, instead of Korlash?


For future purposes this will be the dice

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (11) = 11

[PJ.]

To further my question, Would you be lynch Who Me? and Do you think that my dice roll was is/was better then any/all of the conversation we have pulled from today?

[Urzassedatives]

Well, to be honest I picked korlash because he's annoying and stupid, and seeing as there are only like 4 players in this game whose play I respect and whome is not one of them, no I do not mind. I still prefer korlash though,

[WhoMe?]

Well, to be honest I picked korlash because he's annoying and stupid, and seeing as there are only like 4 players in this game whose play I respect and whome is not one of them, no I do not mind. I still prefer korlash though,

i dont quite understand the reasoning behind this. people are not more or less likely to be scum based upon your respect or lack thereof.

[The Jester]

I think he's implying that he would rather get rid of someone he doesn't want to play with vs. someone he doesn't know that well or someone he likes playing with. Than as he said, use the bandwagon information with the alignment of who was lynched to discuss things.

It's very simple reasoning.

[Korlash]

Ouch... to be called stupid by an idiot... harsh... tsk tsk and here I was just planning on ignoring it.

Than as he said, use the bandwagon information with the alignment of who was lynched to discuss things.

This makes almost as much sense as stabbing your eye with a fork....

i dont quite understand the reasoning behind this. people are not more or less likely to be scum based upon your respect or lack thereof.

There is no reasoning with Urza. It is all about making the game suck as much as possible. I just try to ignore everythign It says and jsut let a vig take care of it tonghit.

[tyhess]

Urzaaedatives.....couple of things:
1) I posted thursday. Today is Saturday. Sorry if I'm not a god and post whenever I feel like it.
2) Are you always this full of yourself?
3) I don't care how expendable Korlash is, a page 5 lynch with so little info and people who haven't posted yet is NOT good. I don't want like 100 page days, but give it a break. Do you happen to be an alt of sarcastro?

1) generally most mods prod after 48 hours of inactivity and replace after 72. I think thats pretty much how most do it. If you're trying to imply that one post every three days is "good enough" then get the fuck out of this game.

2) Care to address my points, rather than attacking me personally? You'll notice that I have no problem with attacking personally (I did it in my last point) so long as you address the points. You did not, so you have not earned the right to insult.

3) Refer to my post where I tell you the only relevant info we get out of d1 IS the lynch. Please tell me if you disagree with the stone cold LOGIC I lay out. If you do, please tell me why. If you do not, please shut the fuck up.

1) I went 1 day without posting becasue I had no internet access. So if that offended you.

2)What points do you want me to address??

3) There is no stone cold logic in this game, especially what you said. I don't care if 75% or whatever ofthe time we lynch town Day 1, it still gives us more info than random voting and lynching quickly. It would also increase our chances of getting scum.

[The Jester]

It than seems that to go through day 1, sometimes you must stab your eye with a fork.

More reason my vote stays.

[PJ.]

Jester, What information do you get about how people reacted from an arbitrary random wagon? How do you cipher peoples intention when all they are doing is saying "Vote __" in bold?

Well, to be honest I picked korlash because he's annoying and stupid, and seeing as there are only like 4 players in this game whose play I respect and whome is not one of them, no I do not mind. I still prefer korlash though,

First of all, I don't appreciate you answering a question directed to RotN. Second(more serious), Am I one of those 4 players?

[Korlash]

I woudl guess the four to be, maybe Ranger... UA for sure... maybe you... hmm no idea who the fourth would be...

Also don't mind jester. hes pissed i outed him this early. It's a record on my part. but no worries, he wont be around too much longer.

[lovo14]

tripple post ftw..turns out this is the right thread. i need to read those numbers not the title....my vote and suspician stands

I disagree with you that The Jester's no lynch vote is similar to a random vote.

i think we were beyond that

FOS rangerofthenorth

day 1 should last til town is happy with the lynch. a rushed day 1 can see town not learning too much info and scum getting into a quick kill.
i feel there is lots you can learn from day 1. people who jumped on bandwagons. etc. can be extremely helpful at lylo as well

[Urzassedatives]

Jester, What information do you get about how people reacted from an arbitrary random wagon? How do you cipher peoples intention when all they are doing is saying "Vote __" in bold?

Well, to be honest I picked korlash because he's annoying and stupid, and seeing as there are only like 4 players in this game whose play I respect and whome is not one of them, no I do not mind. I still prefer korlash though,

First of all, I don't appreciate you answering a question directed to RotN. Second(more serious), Am I one of those 4 players?

Yes.

[The Jester]

Yeah, I can see this day taking a long time already.

@Panzer: First off, you remind me of the first Zoids with Bit Cloud, I thank you good good memories watching that show. Second off, well some of it may or may not be false text of assuming he is mafia regardless of what he says. Of course, he's always scummy in his playstyle and he's one of those play by himself regardless of his side, and will act scummy and he does have his funny record of fake-claiming an SK. So if that doesn't give you a good reason to lynch him Day 1, I guess you want to be stuck with him for awhile longer.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Well... I, personally, being relatively new on the site, wouldn't know who to vote for in a "get rid of bad players" vote. I would, however, consider such a lynch (even if it means me not taking part of it) to be better than a strictly random one, assuming that better players means a better chance for the town (and hopefully a more enjoyable game; I'd consider a scenario where the game dies of lack of interest as the absolute worst case scenario.)

Of course, there's the possibility of that (getting rid of bad players) would lead to the strongest personalities directing the lynch, which would be bad if those people were scum... But I guess that's statistically unprobable? I feel like I'm missing/forgetting something here, if you find something wrong, please point it out.

I'd like to see some more statistics about whether early or late day one lynches is more likely to catch scum, and I started gathering some info before realizing that if it should be done, it should be done right, and I don't really have time or energy for that. Furthermore, it probably belongs in Mafia Discussion?

Sidenote: In the 15 games I did check (six scum day-one-lynches and nine pro-town), the average page scum were lynched was page 8.7, whereas the average for lynched pro-town was 12.4; median values were 9 (scum) and 10 (pro-town) (there were some high numbers on the town side, including a game which went to page 29 before ending day one). Just if anyone's interested. You might be inclined to say that preliminary results indicates that long discussions actually favor scum, but the sample size really is too small to draw conclusions. I mostly mention this because I was expecting scum-lynches to be after more discussion than pro-town-lynches, so I was a bit surprised. Also because I spent some 45 minutes or so on it, and I don't want it wasted. If anyone's going to want to do something bigger on this, elsewhere, let me know.

[Urzassedatives]

Well, I'm not really advocating that we direct all subsequent lynches by that principal. However, I am saying that day one, you're essentially going to get no information except from the lynch, the actions, etc. The quicker we get to that and to day 2, the better.

I picked Korlash because he accumulated a lot of votes quickly, and he's also a bad player. It could have been anyone, really, even me, although I would disagree with that from my own perspective.

After we get some information out of todays lynch and possibly tonights night actions, we can have a non random d2.

[Korlash]

I picked Korlash because he accumulated a lot of votes quickly, and he's also a bad player. It could have been anyone, really, even me, although I would disagree with that from my own perspective.

I will say... that to my recolection... you might actually be the first person to call me a "bad player"... Although it probably happened at some point and I jsut don't remember it... I almost want to ask what makes me a "bad player" but then again I also don't care what you think... Hmmm...

Your not someone I got killed before are you?

[UltimaAvalon]

In general, the "get rid of bad players bandwagon" very rarely works. Otherwise ABR wouldn't be able to live longer than 2 pages in any given game.

[tyhess]

Well, I'm not really advocating that we direct all subsequent lynches by that principal. However, I am saying that day one, you're essentially going to get no information except from the lynch, the actions, etc. The quicker we get to that and to day 2, the better.

I picked Korlash because he accumulated a lot of votes quickly, and he's also a bad player. It could have been anyone, really, even me, although I would disagree with that from my own perspective.

After we get some information out of todays lynch and possibly tonights night actions, we can have a non random d2.

The reason you get things from actions is from the words that are spoken. If we all just voted and went to Day 2, all we would have would be like 10 votes, none of which would be telling us anything except for that they voted for him. You wouldn't know who pushed hard for the lynch, who snuck on, etc. It'd be another day one but with a wasted day.

[Urzassedatives]

Well, I'm not really advocating that we direct all subsequent lynches by that principal. However, I am saying that day one, you're essentially going to get no information except from the lynch, the actions, etc. The quicker we get to that and to day 2, the better.

I picked Korlash because he accumulated a lot of votes quickly, and he's also a bad player. It could have been anyone, really, even me, although I would disagree with that from my own perspective.

After we get some information out of todays lynch and possibly tonights night actions, we can have a non random d2.

The reason you get things from actions is from the words that are spoken. If we all just voted and went to Day 2, all we would have would be like 10 votes, none of which would be telling us anything except for that they voted for him. You wouldn't know who pushed hard for the lynch, who snuck on, etc. It'd be another day one but with a wasted day.

An excellent point! If this meta were the most common meta on day one, and were extended to it's logical conclusion, day ones would become completely meaningless. Lucky for us, it isn't the dominant meta. The only reason I can propose this strategy is because it isn;t commonly accepted. If it were, then it would not be viable.

However, it is viable because we've already gotten plenty of actions to analyze with regard to korlashes alignment, because people were not doing what you said.

Also, the first part is almost completely false. Words give us some context for actions, yes, but they are also seperate from those actions. For instance, words are lies in mafia a large minority of the time. Actions are never lies. Analyzing words can thus lead you astray, whereas actions never will if you know what you're looking for.