Mini 545 - The Final Stand Mafia - Dramatic Finish!

[OhGodMyLife]

OGML: as a general rule, cases which rely on me being a complete idiot don't tend to work out very well.

You know, that is an even worse way to defend yourself than saying you did something scummy to see what kind of reactions you would get.

[Erg0]

Au contraire, it's a very important tenet of scumhunting, and a question that I always ask myself when I'm trying to build a case. What do you believe was my motivation in voting shaka?

[OhGodMyLife]

It seemed to me like you were using an incredibly WIFOM argument to try and get a misguided bandwagon started and keep the attention off of the questions that had been raised about you on day one.

[Erg0]

Follow-up question: Do you think that I would actually expect that to work?

[OhGodMyLife]

Well apparently you are seen as a complete idiot often enough to need to caution me about it. Mizzy certainly followed up the post where you voted shaka by shining the light of suspicion on him some more, which went right along with you.

[Mizzy]

Well apparently you are seen as a complete idiot often enough to need to caution me about it. Mizzy certainly followed up the post where you voted shaka by shining the light of suspicion on him some more, which went right along with you.

Ah, but I did not vote, and was quite upfront about my motivations once I had the information I wanted.

[Erg0]

Well apparently you are seen as a complete idiot often enough to need to caution me about it. Mizzy certainly followed up the post where you voted shaka by shining the light of suspicion on him some more, which went right along with you.

I tend to get annoyed when people accuse me of hatching incredibly transparent schemes - give me a little credit for cryin' out loud. Underestimating the intelligence of your fellow players is a major impediment to successful scumhunting (of course, there are exceptions).

Mizzy did catch my attention with her FoS after my first post, but she dropped it quickly enough that I figured she was just doing the same thing as me. I didn't really expect to catch anyone, but it was worth a shot.

[Khelvaster]

Vote: Erg0

Given the situation, I feel a scum slip-up and backtrack is likely. Erg0 did something idiotic, and he is trying to WIFOM to cover it up.

[Mizzy]

Vote: Erg0

Given the situation, I feel a scum slip-up and backtrack is likely. Erg0 did something idiotic, and he is trying to WIFOM to cover it up.

But...wouldn't a townie do the same thing? ANYONE who does something stupid would try and backpedal. Getting lynched isn't pro-town or pro-scum, you know. I know it's WIFOM but I think it's a scum OR towntell and voting just on that alone is just silly.

[Erg0]

Mizzy wins the prize.

[Mizzy]

Mizzy wins the prize.

First a cookie, then the prize, now the

world

GAME!

[RetroDucts]

But...wouldn't a townie do the same thing? ANYONE who does something stupid would try and backpedal.

Eh.. I'm pretty surebackpedalling implies being dishonest about your intentions. I think the pro-town reaction to having a slip-up pointed out is not lying about it, AKA backpedalling, but accepting the mistake.

I'm not thrilled about Erg0's vote for TJM if all it's based on is an apparent scumtell. And there's this as well -

OGML: as a general rule, cases which rely on me being a complete idiot don't tend to work out very well.

And gambits that rely on the players of a game being idiots are likely to work well?

What sort of a reaction were you expecting when you voted for shaka? Didn't you think that town or scum were equally likely to call it for WIFOM? Where was the gain and how likely was it to be useful anyway?

@ TheJiveMachine

- In your last post you just outlined and added to discussion since Day 2. I asked for you thoughts on Day 1. What did you think about the Joubert wagon? Anything notable from the day you think is worth bringing up? When Joubert came up town, who were your top suspects?

[Mizzy]

Eh.. I'm pretty surebackpedalling implies being dishonest about your intentions. I think the pro-town reaction to having a slip-up pointed out is not lying about it, AKA backpedalling, but accepting the mistake.

Perhaps, IF you remove the "human" and "ego" elements from the equation. I think, though, that this scenario contains both.

[Erg0]

Eh.. I'm pretty surebackpedalling implies being dishonest about your intentions. I think the pro-town reaction to having a slip-up pointed out is not lying about it, AKA backpedalling, but accepting the mistake.

Perhaps, IF you remove the "human" and "ego" elements from the equation. I think, though, that this scenario contains both.

Once again: your theory is that I was unaware that nightkill WIFOM is a bad idea? I'll find a game where I specifically argue against drawing conclusions from nightkills if that helps.

[Mizzy]

Eh.. I'm pretty surebackpedalling implies being dishonest about your intentions. I think the pro-town reaction to having a slip-up pointed out is not lying about it, AKA backpedalling, but accepting the mistake.

Perhaps, IF you remove the "human" and "ego" elements from the equation. I think, though, that this scenario contains both.

Once again: your theory is that I was unaware that nightkill WIFOM is a bad idea? I'll find a game where I specifically argue against drawing conclusions from nightkills if that helps.

What I meant was that I don't think he made a slip-up, and I don't think that dishonestly is always a valid scumtell. It's nice to go on when you have other forms of proof, too, but I think you guys are reaching a bit. If you don't agree with me, then show me some proof.

I have lied as town...who hasn't? I'll do it again, too, if that's what it takes to win.

I'm not saying that Erg0 is totally scumless...I don't like some of his actions.

Can I quickly throw in here that this smacks of being too confident of info a townie couldn't be 100% sure of?

Glork's town alignment means his suspicions were exactly that... just suspicions. Yes, he's a good scum hunter, and it was

almost definitely his reputation that got him NKed and not any suspicion on the scum's part that he was a power role

, but in the end he had exactly as much information as any other townie.

[Erg0]

Hmm... yes and no. Glork can be a bit scary, but the main thing that I drew from the nightkill was that at least one of the scum is aware of Glork's reputation as a scumhunter.

[Mizzy]

Hmm... yes and no. Glork can be a bit scary, but the main thing that I drew from the nightkill was that at least one of the scum is aware of Glork's reputation as a scumhunter.

It's hard to miss his reputation...all you need to do is look at his badge and his wiki page.

[Erg0]

True enough, it doesn't really narrow the field of suspects very much. As such, his death doesn't really give any helpful information. Jive's reaction, on the other hand, is quite revealing.

[Tarhalindur]

I'm back, and I've taken the time to reread the thread, during which a few recent posts really jumped out at me. Let's take a look at the scummy, shall we?

Official confirmation from the mod would be good, but I think that was the hammer vote from killa seven just now. I don't like the policy lynch, but if the last vote count from Glork was right then thats what just happened. Shaka, you may have done it in the past, but it still makes me uncomfortable, since its an easy way for mafia to make sure of a mislynch.

I'm sorry that last flurry of votes happened before I finished reading through everything I had missed and could comment. I think killa is a big newb so everything he say should be seen through that light, and as a result I'm happy that its joubert who seems to be the one getting lynched here. Asking for a no lynch was scummy no matter how he defends it, as was bringing up all that jester BS. Overall his whole tone was just rubbing me the wrong way, and making him come off as scummy.

FoS: Shaka

for pushing the policy lynch

First, let us take a look at a late D1 post, courtesy of OGML.

Observe how OGML is trying to have it both ways. He is explicitly supporting the Joubert lynch ("happy that Joubert is being lynched"), but he finds shaka!! scummy for... get this...

supporting the Joubert lynch

. That's a direct contradiction, and that's seriously scummy.

The post-lynch support for the lynch wagon is also pinging my scumdar, but it's nowhere near as strong a tell as trying to have your cake and eat it, too.

Actually, it is worth bringing up. If I'm reading it correctly, it wouldn't give anything away that scum don't already know.

Town aligned doc implies to me that there may be a scum Doc. "Sire" implies to me that there's probably a Godfather type role in the scum, but given the presence of a scum Doc, they're probably investigation immune rather than unnightkillable. A scum Doc also implies a second night killing role/faction, which may be pro-town or scum.

Or perhaps it could be a roleblocker of some sort? That's in a sense what a doctor is...hrm. I honestly hadn't noticed that. The "sire" I DID notice...but I didn't think much of it.

I wonder then if we have some sort of cop?

Now consider this gem of a post, courtesy of Mizzy. (Yes, I just switched from analyzing OGML to analyzing Mizzy. The reason will become clear shortly.)

Speculating about power roles and setup details is generally anti-town, as it does not contribute to scumhunting (the exception - intricate theme games with questionable balance - is not relevant here). The way in which Mizzy speculates about power roles, however, is outright scummy (specifically naming power roles, raising out of nowhere the possibility of a powerful role that would be a priority target now that the Doctor is dead). Mizzy is rolefishing, either intentionally or inadvertently, and she needs to be called out on it.

Vote: Erg0

Glork's town alignment means his suspicions were exactly that... just suspicions. Yes, he's a good scum hunter, and it was almost definitely his reputation that got him NKed and not any suspicion on the scum's part that he was a power role, but in the end he had exactly as much information as any other townie. However, given that he was also suspicious of you, I find it extremely scummy for you to use that against Shaka. I also don't buy the "I was looking for a scummy response" defense of a retarded vote.

Minor FoS: Mizzy

because speculating about town power roles is not so good. Seems like you're fishing for information. On that note, RD, you probably shouldn't be doing so much set-up speculation either, though doing so about mafia roles is not as much of a problem.

@killa seven, why did you hammer joubert rather than letting him be lynched at deadline as was on its way to happening anyway? It would have given at least a little more time for useful discussion.

Now let us return to the scumminess that is OGML.

There are two HUGE problems with this post. First, OGML seems to know WAY too much about the reasons why Glork was killed. Why is this scummy? Well, there's a reason why the Mafia is also known as the informed minority, and it doesn't just cover knowing exactly who is Mafia and who is not.

The second, even more noteworthy problem is that OGML FoS'es Mizzy for a very valid reason, but diverts attention away from this by voting for Erg0 (with far weaker reasoning) and attacking RetroDucts in a way that suggests that Mizzy's setup speculation isn't really that bad (it is). In other words, OGML is pointing out Mizzy's scummy actions without actually attacking Mizzy. In my experience, this kind of play usually indicates distancing scum.

Eh.. I'm pretty surebackpedalling implies being dishonest about your intentions. I think the pro-town reaction to having a slip-up pointed out is not lying about it, AKA backpedalling, but accepting the mistake.

Perhaps, IF you remove the "human" and "ego" elements from the equation. I think, though, that this scenario contains both.

Once again: your theory is that I was unaware that nightkill WIFOM is a bad idea? I'll find a game where I specifically argue against drawing conclusions from nightkills if that helps.

What I meant was that I don't think he made a slip-up, and I don't think that dishonestly is always a valid scumtell. It's nice to go on when you have other forms of proof, too, but I think you guys are reaching a bit. If you don't agree with me, then show me some proof.

I have lied as town...who hasn't? I'll do it again, too, if that's what it takes to win.

I'm not saying that Erg0 is totally scumless...I don't like some of his actions.

Can I quickly throw in here that this smacks of being too confident of info a townie couldn't be 100% sure of?

Glork's town alignment means his suspicions were exactly that... just suspicions. Yes, he's a good scum hunter, and it was

almost definitely his reputation that got him NKed and not any suspicion on the scum's part that he was a power role

, but in the end he had exactly as much information as any other townie.

Yeah, that was a rather scummy action, wasn't it, Mizzy? But then again, you're bringing up a legitimately scummy action while trying to pass it off as an "afterthought" - and, therefore, without following up on it. Looks like distancing to me.

Here's what I think. I think that at least one of OMGL and Mizzy is scum, and that there is a fairly high chance that they are, in fact, scumbuddies.

I'll post up a more general analysis when I get some more time (probably tomorrow), including a bunch of votecounts for vote pattern analysis. There's no reason to wait until tomorrow to go after the scummy, though.

Vote: OhGodMyLife
HoS: Mizzy

[TheJiveMachine]

First, let us take a look at a late D1 post, courtesy of OGML.

Observe how OGML is trying to have it both ways. He is explicitly supporting the Joubert lynch ("happy that Joubert is being lynched"), but he finds shaka!! scummy for... get this...

supporting the Joubert lynch

. That's a direct contradiction, and that's seriously scummy.

I agree with this part wholeheartedly, largest point against OGML

Vote: OhGodMyLife

[Mizzy]

Speculating about power roles and setup details is generally anti-town, as it does not contribute to scumhunting (the exception - intricate theme games with questionable balance - is not relevant here). The way in which Mizzy speculates about power roles, however, is outright scummy (specifically naming power roles, raising out of nowhere the possibility of a powerful role that would be a priority target now that the Doctor is dead). Mizzy is rolefishing, either intentionally or inadvertently, and she needs to be called out on it.

I am not the only one who did it, so why then am I the only one to be called on it? Besides, I already WAS called on it. Not smart of me, perhaps,

Yeah, that was a rather scummy action, wasn't it, Mizzy? But then again, you're bringing up a legitimately scummy action while trying to pass it off as an "afterthought" - and, therefore, without following up on it. Looks like distancing to me.

The reason that it seemed like an afterthought interjection was because it actually WAS an afterthought. I was getting ready to go to bed (not really a valid excuse, I know) and when I was answering Erg0, I saw OGML's post again and that part stood out at me. It hadn't before. I had planned on waiting a bit to see if OGML responded to it before saying anything else on it.

I'm sure you guys know by now that I'm a cautious player. I don't vote unless I wouldn't mind seeing that person dead, and I also use FoSes pretty rarely. That's why I didn't do more about it...I wanted to be sure, first. I also didn't want a response from me to come off as OMGUS since he'd just fingered me, which also would make made me look scummy.

[Mizzy]

Here's what I think. I think that at least one of OMGL and Mizzy is scum, and that there is a fairly high chance that they are, in fact, scumbuddies.

And it also could be that he is attempting to link himself to a townie so that if he were to die and come up scum, you'd then lynch me. Funny thing is, if he dies and turns up town, you might ALSO lynch me because "OGML was right about her all along!" Such linking actions could be townie or scummy. Hell, Tar could be scum trying to make that happen to two townies.

WIFOM, but still something to keep in mind.

[killa seven]

Vote: Erg0

@killa seven, why did you hammer joubert rather than letting him be lynched at deadline as was on its way to happening anyway? It would have given at least a little more time for useful discussion.

honestly i didnt know it was a hammer vote, i wanted to get one in before the deadline he seemed the the best option at the time he didnt really defend himself well, i guess i should have paid attention to the vote count ive been overloaded at work.
anyone else have any other questions for me

[Mizzy]

honestly i didnt know it was a hammer vote, i wanted to get one in before the deadline he seemed the the best option at the time he didnt really defend himself well,

i guess i should have paid attention to the vote count

ive been overloaded at work.
anyone else have any other questions for me

Yes, you should have.

Can you catch up a bit and tell us your take on current events in the game?

[shaka!!]

Here's what I think. I think that at least one of OMGL and Mizzy is scum, and that there is a fairly high chance that they are, in fact, scumbuddies.

And it also could be that he is attempting to link himself to a townie so that if he were to die and come up scum, you'd then lynch me. Funny thing is, if he dies and turns up town, you might ALSO lynch me because "OGML was right about her all along!" Such linking actions could be townie or scummy. Hell, Tar could be scum trying to make that happen to two townies.

WIFOM, but still something to keep in mind.

This is seriously alerting.

You do know that scum often use WIFOM to try clear there name, right?

vote: Mizzy

Also,

since he'd just fingered me

Lol.