Mini 539: Game over

[kuribo]

Kuribo has ignored the question's I directly asked him. Make of that what you will...

I didn't ignore it. I said why I didn't believe it.

[Xtoxm]

Kuribo has ignored the question's I directly asked him. Make of that what you will...

I didn't ignore it. I said why I didn't believe it.

No you didn't, you responded only to Justin

[kuribo]

I don't believe the claim because it came with nearly no pressure and very early on Day 2. There was absolutely no strategic reason for him to not only claim, but also to out his partner. (If he has done that)

Xtoxm, I answered your question while responding to Justin.

Your attempt to make a mountain out of a molehill is noted.

[Xtoxm]

No you didn't. You answered only Justin's. Our Q's were different. If they weren't Justin wouldn't have needed to bother asking right after me.

[kuribo]

Why don't you believe the mason claim? what makes you doubt it?

Anyway I thought I was your top suspect, how is that possible if you don't believe their claim?

Regarding your first question:

I don't believe the claim because it came with nearly no pressure and very early on Day 2. There was absolutely no strategic reason for him to not only claim, but also to out his partner. (If he has done that)

And as for your second question, I've had a bit of an epiphany about you, and if I'm right, you'd be smart to just let it go for the time being.

[Gorgon]

No, I said that if Incog is telling the truth (and a mason), then Mafia would likely be his true partner. If Incog is lying and scum, then Mafia is likely not his partner.

What I said in a nutshell is that if Incog is scum instead of Mason, he probably hasn't outted his partner.

I don't believe the claim because it came with nearly no pressure and very early on Day 2. There was absolutely no strategic reason for him to not only claim, but also to out his partner. (If he has done that)

I agree that the claim was most likely premature, especially since he named his partner as well, but to suggest that Incog could be scum stating a false partner is pretty silly - SSK would then just say "No, Incog is not my partner", and that would be the end of that.

SSK hasn't denied the claim, so that means they are indeed both masons, or both scum. The second possibility is too remote to address today.

[Nanosauromo]

VoteCount

Apyadg - 2 (Xtoxm, Justin Playfair)
Xtoxm - 1 (Kuribo)

Apyadg has been prodded. I'm seeking replacements for Ho1den and, if he doesn't respond, Apyadg.

[Shteven]

The claim had the beneficial effect, though: we pretty much all agree that they aren't scum, so now the possible list of scum is that much shorter. Knocking two people off is a dramatic improvement from a simple random chance view. With only 9 people living, there's 7 possible scum, and 2 are really scum. About a 28% chance per person, instead of 22%.

So yes, the claim was oddly timed, but in the end I think it helped quite a bit. Can we move on, though? The 28% still won't find themselves.

[kuribo]

2 are really scum.

How do you know how many scum there are, for certain?

Vote: Shteven

[kuribo]

Unvote, Vote: Shteven

if necessary

[Shteven]

Odd, I thought we had settled that a long time ago. About the only person who thinks otherwise is Xtoxm, who's holding out for the possibility of there being an SK. And he said he'd wait for day 3 to see if there were two kills. Anyways, it's been brought up before:

I stand by the connection to holdem, but I since I don't feel SSK is scum, it's just two people who are interacting. Possible scum on holdem, but very low. He probably won't even make top 3 (and since there's 3 scum...you do the math).

How do you know this?

How do you know there's 2 scum in a newbie game? These are balanced setups. This is not a theme game. The kind of people who are afraid to say the obvious for fear of implication are not pro-town. I consider this jab opportunistic, although it's minor.

[Xtoxm]

Kuribo I think you're being a bit silly, I don't see a reason to doubt the mason claims and I would refuse to believe there are anyhting other than 3 mafia in this 12 player game. The only way there could be just 2 mafia is if there were 10 townies, which as we can clearly see is not the case. Stheven could well be scum but if he is that has no bearing on any possible knowledge of a 4th scum SK.

[Justin Playfair]

Kuribo,

This does seem a pretty big jump for a vote. Do you have anything else that makes you vote Shteven? Because he's been making this same assumption throughout the thread.

[kuribo]

Shteven, the difference between a newbie game and this game is that a newbie game is a semi-open setup, whereas this is a closed setup. In semi-open, we're told flat-out from the get-go that there are two scum.

Xtoxm, you shouldn't take anything about the setup for granted. Also, I already said why I don't necessarily believe the claim. I don't particularly advocate their lynch--- because I still find the possibility that it's a legitimate claim. However, I very rarely believe claims at first, especially if they're early.

JP, A handful of other things about Shteven. He was on Claus' "Nice" list, which while trivial, bears noting. His predecessor, Jayhawk, got very defensive and even quit while under pressure. Shteven was one of the early driving forces behind the DS-lurker lynch. Shteven tried to gloss over Day 1 interactions by saying:

How about, instead, you tell us what you think of day 2 events?

Then, as Xtoxm (who I've disagreed vehemently on many occasions with) pointed out, Shteven and Claus didn't seem to interact with one another--- and for that matter, I've noticed that when they did, it was a bit "in passing:"

@Stephen
About Justin:
It is not the length of his posts. It is the fact that I can't really feel that he is attacking anyone (other than his earlier Ythill attacks). Reading him in this game (don't wanna read your link now), I feel I'm listening to a politician about non-popular matters.

That right there seems like he's saying, "I should respond, but I don't want to draw a possible link between us."

Then, there's the post following Claus' NK:

As for looking over the list, it's a good idea, but I'd go about it a slightly different way. Scum usually hinge their bets on such lists; so it's likely the the other scum are spread out on the list. Focusing on just the nice or just the naughty won't help much.

Gee, I wonder why we should disregard his Naughty/Nice designations? Could it be because he made a mistake in listing his scum partner as nice? Maybe, maybe not.

[Hjallti]

I am replacing Ho1den. Don't thank me, but Justin Playfair, who replaced in in my own game under condition I play here. I will reread not later than tuesday.

[Xtoxm]

Thanks Justin! Just need 2 more of us to do that.

I am discounting SSK he doesn't deserve to be called active.

[Nanosauromo]

Hjallti replaces Ho1den.

[Shteven]

Shteven, the difference between a newbie game and this game is that a newbie game is a semi-open setup, whereas this is a closed setup. In semi-open, we're told flat-out from the get-go that there are two scum.

That's true, this is a closed setup. But I wonder if you'd like to wager a guess as to how many scum we have? Something like "5% chance of 2 scum, 90% chance of 3 scum, and 5% chance of 4 scum" maybe. Of course, I don't see us having 4 scum at all, but 2 scum could be a (very remote) possibility. Perhaps going ahead and calculating exact probabilities off assuming a 3 scum team is a bit extreme, but I really don't see how you can assume we don't have one.

Shteven tried to gloss over Day 1 interactions by saying:

How about, instead, you tell us what you think of day 2 events?

This was addressed to MafiaSSK, who hasn't posted anything helpful all day. I am not trying to get anyone to not talk about day 1, I was trying to get him to say SOMETHING. Your attack here is a clear distortion. I generally consider talking about the ending of day 1 to be day 2 discussion as well, but that doesn't really come into play here when I was just trying to get our here-but-not-posting MafiaSSK to contribute something.

That right there seems like he's saying, "I should respond, but I don't want to draw a possible link between us."

It was more that I just didn't have anything much to talk to him about. We happened to have a fairly compatible view of who was innocent and who wasn't. If I wanted to get away with not talking about him, I think I would have simply not mentioned that, rather than explicitly stating it.

Then, there's the post following Claus' NK:

As for looking over the list, it's a good idea, but I'd go about it a slightly different way. Scum usually hinge their bets on such lists; so it's likely the the other scum are spread out on the list. Focusing on just the nice or just the naughty won't help much.

Gee, I wonder why we should disregard his Naughty/Nice designations? Could it be because he made a mistake in listing his scum partner as nice? Maybe, maybe not.

Funny, that was exactly my point. Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Claus is a cross dresser*, maybe he isn't. You have to -show- that he is or isn't. Just saying "Well he might be" is not helpful in the least. Guessing that he put scum partners in the nice list is fine, but then let's take it to it's logical conclusion. What do you think of Xtoxm/Charter because of their inclusion on the nice list? How do you feel about Apyadg being in naughty, when many people consider him scum (or any of the other naughty players)? What the hell should we do about the unlisted players? And why should we trust what you have to say about the unlisted players when you are one of them?

And finally, just because you seem so intent to give me hell about it, you said "his scum partner," singular. So, there's a two mafia team, and Kuribo is the second mafia? Don't you mean partners?

*I am not claiming Claus is a cross dresser.

[kuribo]

And finally, just because you seem so intent to give me hell about it, you said "his scum partner," singular. So, there's a two mafia team, and Kuribo is the second mafia? Don't you mean partners?

Why, when did he out another one? I said singular because if you're scum, then he hasn't outted partner

S

, just a partner.

[Xtoxm]

Shteven you are a single person as is all the players here so you refer to any player as Claus's scum partner in that content rather than the plural, which would imply you are 2 or more persons. This does not mean there isnt another scum partner.

[Shteven]

Look at what Kuribo said precisely:

Gee, I wonder why we should disregard his Naughty/Nice designations? Could it be because he made a mistake in listing his scum partner as nice? Maybe, maybe not.

He's not singling me out by name, Xtoxm. He never said "Shteven is his scum partner" which would be singular, but rather "Claus listed his scum partner" which means that Claus only has one scum partner in the game. It is exactly the "mistake" he's after me for. He should have said "Claus listed one of his scum partners". Normally I wouldn't care at all about such a mistake; it's utterly trivial. But he's being a hypocrite because he's trying to hang me over the same thing.

He's using the Nice list to look for scum, and then conveniently settling on only one person. What about the rest of the list? What about the third scum? Is the third scum on the nice list? Do you want to dispute their being three scum?

Ythill's already dead, and was pro-town. The nice list doesn't have many other choices. It only leaves Charter(Gorgon) and Xtoxm. How do you feel about Charter(Gorgon)/Xtoxm, Kuribo? Do you really feel that it would make any sense for scum to place his team entirely in one category rather than spread them out?

The point of all this is that chopping the list in half (or 1/3) is just blinding you to half of the players. It's no solid basis for a case. You can mention it sure, but the case shouldn't depend on it in the least. It's entirely WIFOM.

Why, when did he out another one? I said singular because if you're scum, then he hasn't outted partnerS, just a partner.

Please explain how my mere existence on the nice list "outs" me. And how then he has not also "outted" Ythill, Xtoxm, and Charter(Gorgon).

[Xtoxm]

I have to agree that that particular argument is completely meaningless. However I think he brings up some other good points. As i've stated before I could see you being Claus's partner Stheven...But like i've been saying all along I think there's one on the naughty one on the nice. And I want to lynch Apyadg today.

[Hjallti]

I just went reading day 1, a long read!

I will comment when I have time.

This meta argument is false use of statistics

Firstly, it seems unlikely for lightning to strike twice.

chances that two players are linked scum in two games are indeed very small, but the chance that two players are linked twice GIVEN THEY ARE LINKED ONCE is equal to the chance they are linked once.

[kuribo]

Look at what Kuribo said precisely:

He's not singling me out by name, Xtoxm. He never said "Shteven is his scum partner" which would be singular, but rather "Claus listed his scum partner" which means that Claus only has one scum partner in the game. It is exactly the "mistake" he's after me for. He should have said "Claus listed one of his scum partners". Normally I wouldn't care at all about such a mistake; it's utterly trivial. But he's being a hypocrite because he's trying to hang me over the same thing.

The point of all this is that chopping the list in half (or 1/3) is just blinding you to half of the players. It's no solid basis for a case. You can mention it sure, but the case shouldn't depend on it in the least. It's entirely WIFOM.
Please explain how my mere existence on the nice list "outs" me. And how then he has not also "outted" Ythill, Xtoxm, and Charter(Gorgon).

It's not just the "Nice list," it's several other things I pointed out in response to JP, which you've chosen to ignore. Rather, you're focusing on one part of my argument and making it seem as if the only reason I'm voting you is because you were on Claus' nice list.

Of course it wouldn't make sense to list all of his scum partners on the nice list, but I'd bet my left testicle that there's a scum in that list. Listing Ythill as anything but "Nice," after an uncountered vig-claim would have drawn too much attention to himself--- especially when he knew they'd get him that night, anyway.

What about the rest of the list? What about the third scum? Is the third scum on the nice list? Do you want to dispute their being three scum?

Ythill's already dead, and was pro-town. The nice list doesn't have many other choices. It only leaves Charter(Gorgon) and Xtoxm. How do you feel about Charter(Gorgon)/Xtoxm, Kuribo? Do you really feel that it would make any sense for scum to place his team entirely in one category rather than spread them out?

How do you know there are 3 scum? How do you know whether or not he put the entire scum team in one category? I never said that he did, nor did I even imply it--- I said that I found some of your actions scummy, and I found you on the Nice List.

You make it seem as if I went over the list, saw your name listed under "Nice," and said--- AHA! He's scum, but rather quite the opposite---

I saw some suspicious behavior on your part, (started by your comment about the number of scum in the game) then saw your name on the nice list, and that got the wheels a-turnin'.

As for the fact that I've "ignored" charter and Xtoxm, charter hasn't been very active, now has he? And if you think I've ignored Xtoxm, then maybe we have an entirely different opinion of what "ignored" means.

[Incognito]

Hi. Sorry for neglecting the game. I promise to catch up and get posting again very soon.