Mini #556 - The Most Excellent People Ever - Called.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Vote: Korlash

For having an animated avatar. Those things are dangerous, I tell you.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Woah, going a bit fast here, aren't we? First of all,

unvote

. I'm not comfortable with lynching anyone I have a completely random vote on. (<magic> Let alone one who can pay 1B to regenerate. </magic>)

Trying to set a speed record doesn't seem like a very towny move to me, so for now I'll

vote: RangeroftheNorth

. What was that about?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Well... I, personally, being relatively new on the site, wouldn't know who to vote for in a "get rid of bad players" vote. I would, however, consider such a lynch (even if it means me not taking part of it) to be better than a strictly random one, assuming that better players means a better chance for the town (and hopefully a more enjoyable game; I'd consider a scenario where the game dies of lack of interest as the absolute worst case scenario.)

Of course, there's the possibility of that (getting rid of bad players) would lead to the strongest personalities directing the lynch, which would be bad if those people were scum... But I guess that's statistically unprobable? I feel like I'm missing/forgetting something here, if you find something wrong, please point it out.

I'd like to see some more statistics about whether early or late day one lynches is more likely to catch scum, and I started gathering some info before realizing that if it should be done, it should be done right, and I don't really have time or energy for that. Furthermore, it probably belongs in Mafia Discussion?

Sidenote: In the 15 games I did check (six scum day-one-lynches and nine pro-town), the average page scum were lynched was page 8.7, whereas the average for lynched pro-town was 12.4; median values were 9 (scum) and 10 (pro-town) (there were some high numbers on the town side, including a game which went to page 29 before ending day one). Just if anyone's interested. You might be inclined to say that preliminary results indicates that long discussions actually favor scum, but the sample size really is too small to draw conclusions. I mostly mention this because I was expecting scum-lynches to be after more discussion than pro-town-lynches, so I was a bit surprised. Also because I spent some 45 minutes or so on it, and I don't want it wasted. If anyone's going to want to do something bigger on this, elsewhere, let me know.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I guess the thing is that if you're trying to wait for someone to truly behave scummy, you can drag on day one for months. The thing is, I'm not sure whether dragging on for an indefinite amount of town is assured to shake out the scum; a reasonably good player might be able to convince the town of his innocence time and time again, even if we go for years with multiple wagons on everyone. If anything, I guess longer day ones would lead to the lynch of people who get bored/frustrated or just are bad, rather than people who are scummy.

A lynch of a reasonably scummy person comparativey early on (IE after we've had at least SOME discussion, so we have something to discuss day two) might provide us with more information than an indefinitely long day of discussions. Correct me if I'm wrong. Not a

random

lynch though; that's just wrong. There has to be reasons for voting for someone. Sure, you might still be able to draw conclusions from the people on a random wagon, but I'd view them as much weaker.

Also, I don't think people around here act very much in the spirit of the game. Be excellent to each other!

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Don't need a prod.

Waiting for Urzassedatives to respond to Panzerjager's post 165.

Also, Panzerjager, you didn't unvote earlier.

Very excellent point you very excellent person. (Better? )

Moving on, what do you suggest for discussion than?

Much better, you very excellent person!

For discussion... Well, how about UltimaAvalon's latest post? It looks like it was completely pointless, unless the dots were a code or something. UA, what's that about? Are codes excellent?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I think Jester's at three votes now, actually. UA decided to vote for Korlash instead.

UA: Dots not being code noted. Don't really understand your vote. Please explain further.

At this point, I'm somewhat confused by this game. I've reread, but I'm not much wiser; I can't tell what the near-lynch of Korlash was, but I'd be surprised if there weren't at least a few scum on that wagon trying to get a quick lynch. Since RotN isn't here to defend himself, I don't see much point in keeping my vote on him right now.

Unvote

.

The Jester; you DID keep your vote on Korlash in what was almost a quick lynch. Quick lynches are not excellent.

FoS: The Jester.

As for Thanatos' claim, I'm confused. There are like six or seven more or less excellent Kiras on wikipedia ranging from several anime characters to a Star Trek character to someone in a Mortal Kombat game to a softcore porn star... Which one are you claiming? And why are you even claiming at this point? Also, quick lynches aren't excellent, nor is the retroactive questioning of a lack of one.

FoS Thanatos.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

One of the Kiras are a Power Ranger... Much like one of the villains. Hmm hmm. In any case, if a 6000 year old villain (Ivan Ooze, and yes I had to look it up... Btw, the wikipedia entry for Ivan Ooze doesn't say if he's a mutant used-to-be-human or alien or what, but judging from some pics I found off the internets he's purple and has tentacles on his chin ) can qualify as people, then I wouldn't be surprised to see some fictional characters on the excellent side.

Then again... I'm not sure how reliable this is, but the queue thread had information that seems to suggest it's real people only. Not sure if this applies though, given the intro post.

Then again again, speaking of the intro post:

I'm talking real legends here

Now, obviously Kevin Federline is a MOST un-excellent dude and can't be relied on, but the fact that none of the Kiras seem to be very legendary seems odd.

I really don't mind sharing that I'm in fact non-fictional.

Thanatos, care to share some light on the situation?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Still waiting for Thanatos to provide an explanation for weird claim.

Lloyd: *presents Lloyd with a giftwrapped Preview button* Use it wisely, you should. Much power it possesses, hmm.

Concerning long/short day ones... For me, as a humble apprentice of the noble art of playing Mafia online, it would seem that information is good, and that a longer day one provides more information than a short one. Of course, after some arbitrary point it presumably just becomes a hassle, what with people presumably losing interest and the information hidden beneath layers within layers of disinformation and rants and I don't even know how to classify UA's posts (no offense.) I don't think very long day ones necessarily means a more likely scum lynch (especially after going through a bunch of them and seeing signs to the opposite, see a post of mine way back wherever), but I do think that we should have some options when lynching and not just lynch the first one to get a big enough wagon.

Glad to see you back, Ranger. Still waiting for you to defend that L-1 vote.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

There are s many people I want to kill....

Oh really? Could you tell us who?

interesting choice of words. 2:3 chance your scum now UA. Makes you the second best lynch!

How'd you arrive at that number? I'd say at least 1/2 chance he just wants to kill someone and don't have any power to do so (assuming this isn't a setup with a huge amount of scum, vigs, SK:s and what-not, but these are excellent people here, going around with lots of weapons is surely not excellent? Hmm, come to think of it I can think of a lot of excellent super heroes, but those usually don't actually kill people, they just smack people around and leave 'em for the cops. Also assuming basic probability theory and stuff; people are generally less likely to be scum than town. Oh, and thirdly, he's been dropping weird comments all game, not to mention the site.)

Do I really have to make a case?

Yes please, that way it's much easier to find gaps in your logic in case anyone would feel so inclined.

I just noticed, Thanatos has a grand total of three (short) posts in this thread, the last of which was five days ago. Lurking much?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Korlash: Fair enough, I'll try to lighten up a little (or make it more obvious).

UA: That's not very excellent. Some might interpret that as a SK claim.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Thanatos: Way to distract the town and then disappear for a week. >_>

Tyhess hasn't posted for more than two weeks. That's some heavy duty lurking right there...

Mod: Prod tyhess, please.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

The reason I'm not voting is because I'm still confused by the game. Too much joking, not enough sharing reasons for suspicions. I would've voted Tyhess, but I thought a prod would be more useful in this situation. Voting lurkers does nothing if they don't even see it. That being said, I do find lots of people more or less suspicious. In alphabetical order:

Guardian: Went after Tyhess for lurking, abandoned him for another lurker (Thanatos; Guardian's words not mine) for no apparent reason, and is now after me for being after lurkers (among other things).

RangeroftheNorth: Was willing to have a quick lynch and didn't respond to why, returned briefly before he conveniently disappearing again after promising to add something meaningful. That was two weeks ago.

Thanatos: Made an odd claim, disappeared for two weeks and explained it away with having been on holiday for a week (note discrepancy). Hasn't added anything to the discussion since he got back.

The Jester: A joker. Seemed willing to do a quick lynch at first, seems less suspicious of late.

Tyhess: A lurker.

UA: A bigger joker. If he's got reasons for doing anything, he's not sharing them. Doesn't make him scummy as such, but adds to the confusion which I don't regard as pro-town playing. Is it so much to ask that you post things that aren't just distracting?



Regarding Lloyd: The person with the biggest wagon right now. Maybe this is my inexperience showing, but I don't see the big thing he's done wrong. The biggest thing on him seems to be that he thought Thanatos claimed to start discussion. Panzerjager seems to base a lot of his reasoning on a gut feeling (and ignored my plea to lay out his case) and Guardian's reasoning that "words are scummy"... No, I honestly don't understand what you mean. Would you care to clarify?

In short, I'm not at all sure who deserves lynching today. You've got a point though, I should use my vote.

Vote: Thanatos

If you want to get away from the Kira claim, post something of value to make us think it's less interesting. If you want people to post more content, lead by example.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Was it really 2 weeks though? I could have sworn I made the kira joke shortly before break.

Yep. You made the Kira claim February 19 and returned from your vacation March 3.

Um, about lloyd, I meant he has a pattern of using too many words when fewer would have sufficed.

His doing so was suspicious because it is easy to obfuscate the meaning of one's posts when they're too elongated.

Okay, I think I get what you mean.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Thanatos, you wanted a vote count and you've got it (except that I should be voting you on it), what now?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Sorry for not posting lately, I didn't want to post until I felt I could add something substantial to the discussion. In any case, I'll be out of town for a week starting tomorrow, and I'm not sure what my Internet access will be like. I'll check in when/if I can.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

*goes to retrieve giftwrapped Preview button from Lloyd's body, hands it to Guardian* Five posts in a row?

I don't really like how Guardian played yesterday. It seems he pretty much flailed around wildly until he finally latched onto the guy with the biggest wagon, who did turn out to be scum and who essentially gave up at L-2. I'm not sure if that was good tactics, pure luck or a bus, but I don't like the fact that Guardian was very triggerhappy (read: votehappy) yesterday but still failed to actually vote Lloyd, instead repeatedly expressing a desire to hammer. And not doing so when given the chance, I might add. What was your plan, Guardian?

As for the Lloyd-Korlash-bus-thing, it looks like WIFOM paradise to me. It's impossible to take it very seriously though; for one thing, Korlash wasn't even voting Lloyd at that point, so he must've felt VERY suicidal to drag a fellow scum with him... But yeah, WIFOM paradise. Who knows. IMO it's useless for case as well as defense.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I've read the book and seen the movie Starship Troopers (book is excellent btw, and not at all like the movie) although both were years ago, but I can't really understand why Rico would kill helpless/incapacitated people. In fact, killing helpless people seems like a very un-excellent thing to do. If anyone has the movie (it was the character from the movie, correct?) in recent memory and can explain this, that'd help.

Anyway, I don't see why we can't just try that claim, if someone indeed has a way of incapaciting people (night ability, I guess?). How about we vote for two people, lynch one of them, and see if the other one is incapacitated and so can be killed tomorrow? That way we'd confirm a townie (out-of-ammo-vig), and if there's an incapacitator (?) out there they wouldn't have to reveal their identity. If it's not a role but the effect of something else (ie nobody is incapacitated tomorrow), we lose nothing, except the chance to confirm Guardian. The only real downside to this that I can think of is that we would "waste" the dayvig; I'm not experienced enough to judge how much of a loss that would be or if there's a "best" way to use them.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

WhoMe?: If that's how the role works, at least we'd have a confirmed excellent person/townsperson. Plus it's almost like he'd have two votes.

I dunno though... Guardian, your pm indicates that it would be obvious if a person is incapacitated, right? Well, I don't think we've had a votecount with anyone at L-1 (Lloyd went from L-2 at one votecount to lynched at the next) so that would be easy enough to check if that's it, we just have to get someone to L-1 and avoid to hammer that person before we've had a votecount. I kind of doubt it though; incapacitated seems to me like it's a status that would prevent the person from taking action, and that's something the person would have to know about. If being put at L-1 makes you incapacitated, I'm thinking it'd be in the rules.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Mmkay, so let's see if I got this right...

Guardian with the dubious claim is following Oman on a WhoMe? wagon, possibly because of Whome?'s attack on said dubious claim, Jester and Korlash are talking nonsense with the latter one also annoying the mod, Panzer wants stuff to happen but doesn't do much himself, DizzyIzzyB13 is fishing for Panzer's role, lovo14 is quiet and Thanatos is gone.

This is a mess. I barely know where to begin.

IMO, we can skip the Guardian lynch for today. If there's a town-friendly role capable of incapacitating people, that person can hopefully do something about it 'till tomorrow. People on the Guardian wagon, your thoughts on this?

I don't like Dizzy's fishing attempt. Why would it be beneficial to know someone's role, and why Panzer?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

The Buddha was pretty excellent, even if he did spend a lot of time under a tree as I remember it. Seems odd with a handicap that "feels" like something, though, and I have no idea what kind of connection Buddha would have to a mafiascum player. More info, please.

Newbie speaking: I gather Battlemage has a certain reputation around here, but I'm not really sure what to make of it, so could someone break it down for me?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Hmm. The above reasoning makes sense. The probability of a townperson faking a claim seems lower than Dizzy making all this up.

Before I vote, I still would very much like some insight on Battle Mage. I looked around, and came to the conclusion that he's, well, widely considered to not be a very good player? Or at least hasn't been historically? (It IS the player Battle Mage and not some kind of title or role of Battlemage, correct?)

Dizzy and Panzer? Clear this up a little?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Backstreet Boys are excellent?

Seriously?

I'd like to see Panzer replying, instead of Guardian trying to answer for him.

Also, Dizzy, have you investigated someone else? No need to answer which one or say which name you got (at least not yet), but if you have, does that result make you doubt (or not doubt) your sanity? Also, does your role give any hints about you not getting the exact role (instead of, e.g., some kind of hint about the role?)

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I dunno... It seems like a powerful role, but at the same time, day 5?
It's day two now, with ten left. Assuming one lynch and one NK each day/night, at the dawn of day five, there'd be four people left. Not very good odds.

What kind of bothers me is that all the arguments against Panzer are meta arguments.
One point is that he didn't claim immidiately, but even a fake claim can be made in advance.
Another point is the role name, but I have no idea if it even means anything. Battle Mage seems a reasonably excellent person to me now, but I would've expected Backstreet Boys to be un-excellent (no offense to anyone, but when I grew up, listening to Backstreet Boys was decidedly uncool), so that's pointless.
Third point is how much Panzer was told about the handicap, and that's impossible to find out since there's a rule against quoting pm:s, and so the rest of you can go on experience from normal pm:s. I can't. I guess I could meta Rosso's old games, but I don't like doing meta reads (especially not on mods.)
A fourth point is that the claim is convenient, and while true, that doesn't mean the claim is fake (although probably more likely to be fake).

So the question is, are the points above (or did I miss something? I'm not counting the possibly misspelled role name here) enough to lynch? I'm leaning towards "maybe", but I'm not convinced. More information needed.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Oman has a valid point, it does overly complicated. Add to that that it's not just an ordinary miller - it's a rolename miller. (Of course, seeing as how there's a rolecop, maybe there's nothing odd about that.)

Besides, now that the secret is out, I doubt that the omniscient thing would be useful, so we're not losing very much even if it's true. No more than we would if we lynched a townie, anyway. Which means it wouldn't be a very good fake claim, either.

I'm going to sleep on this. >_>

[Cavebear with a toothache]

If he was a genuine rolemiller, wouldn't you expect him to come back as someone who's obviously unexcellent? Personally, I'd be expecting, like, Adolf Hitler or Robert Mugabe or something.

Valid point... But then again, apparently Backstreet Boys are excellent, and according to the intro, Steve Jobs isn't.

Also, if you want to expand on the point about overcomplication... his rolename. He is roleclaiming Buddha. Why is is rolename not just "Buddha"? Maybe that's overthinking, but still... worthy of consideration, IMO. Especially if you lynch him.

Actually, Buddha is sort of a title, meaning "enlightened one". There has been several if I remember correctly, but the most famous one, and the one you usually mean by saying "the Buddha", was Siddharta Gautama.

Okay, so the claim stinks. It's just... weird. The Battle Mage thing doesn't make sense, the Buddha role seems a bit off, the timing of the claiming and the circumstances surrounding it reeks.

I've reread Panzer, trying to make up my mind. About the only thing stopping me from voting him at this point (I'm not sure the claim is fake, but when I get to choose between a needlessly complicated explanation and a simple one, I prefer the simple one, which is that Panzer was caught with his pants down and had to make up a claim) is the fact that it means that there was some serious busing going on with Lloyd day one. That makes me pause. Does anyone have a good meta read on Panzer, is that something he'd do? Is he ruthless?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I'm suspicious of pretty much everyone. >_> Except Dizzy, I guess. I'm leaning towards voting Panzer, but mostly in lack of better targets; I'm not really convinced he's scum.

Korlash, you pressed pretty hard for The Jester yesterday, do you think he's still the lynch today?

Panzer, if you're not scum, who do you think should be lynched?

To spark some discussion: What does everybody think about Panzer's/Guardian's/Dizzy's claims?

(Me: about Panzer I'm undecided, the claim seems a bit off and the Battle Mage thing is just weird; Guardian I'm willing to believe for now, waiting for someone to become incapacitated; Dizzy I believe.)

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Korlash, you pressed pretty hard for The Jester yesterday, do you think he's still the lynch today?

No, But I still think he is scum.

Who, then? Panzer?

Guardian: You missed that Panzer is now voting WhoMe? in your inofficial votecount.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Re: Panzer (not) voting WhoMe: My bad, read too fast.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Not giving much for Panzer blaming Guardian; same as the Lloyd naming Korlash thing, I'd consider this a null tell as well. As for Guardian repeatedly defending Panzer... Well, there are at least two ways of confirming his claim (Dizzy investigating (absolute confirmation) or the presence of someone who's incapacitated (very strong indication of Guardian telling the truth)) so I guess we'll see.

So Lloyd really was a bus then? o_O

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I'd really like to know what's going on, too. >_>

Of course, that's pretty much been true the entire game.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I can't really believe Panzer is/was a jester. Partly because a jester would seem a bit off in a small game, but mostly because almost nothing in the way he played suggests, to me, that he's a jester. Well, I guess if the Lloyd wagon was a guess at who he thought

wasn't

scum but was wrong, that would qualify, as he would've looked much worse had Lloyd been town... But that's about it, I think? If Dizzy hadn't investigated him, he probably wouldn't be anywhere near a lynch right now.

Then again, this is twilight, he has nothing to lose from lying right now. But then again

again

, nothing to gain either. Not that I can think of, anyway. Except possibly the fun of messing with us. So yeah, odds of him being a jester are pretty low.

Bah. Even thinking about this is probably a waste of time. I support remaining scum (or the mod ) telling us what's going on.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

I'm seriously considering taking the over right about now. :p

Alright, you're on. I'll bet you a cookie.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

... bet... a cookie... ?!? What are you betting on? Red?

... hmmm... I'll raise you a dime...

I'm betting on our esteemed mod making it back to the thread before friday.

I don't have any dimes, do you accept Swedish crowns?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Now now, what you need is an impartial judge to decide whether or not there's any money in there. *takes case, slams it shut*

For no particular reason, I may have accidentally sent you both my account number in an offshore bank. Just mentioning it. Now, then, let's seeeee... *makes big deal out of opening the case very slowly and away from anyone looking*

[Cavebear with a toothache]

Dizzy is a communist? >_>
Korlash is a ninja? <_<
The Jester is... I have no idea what he is? <_>
And Rosso is missing. ._.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

It is Saturday. The over wins!

Bah. Looks like I owe you a cookie.

I'm no one carebear....no one...

That's CAVEbear, with a 'v'. >_> Maybe I really should change my avatar.

So who do we contact about missing mods? Mith? Before that, has anyone actually pm:ed or otherwise tried to contact Rosso?

[Cavebear with a toothache]

There's no delayed culting... Or if there was, I wasn't told about it.

I was the third mafia; Bob Dole. (Bob Dole!) I wanted to keep going; I wanted to see all the roles play out... And see how long I could stay alive. With all the theories going around about who was scum and who wasn't, I felt like I had a decent shot.

We were told that there'd be a whole bunch of weak (mostly one-shot or delayed) roles, and given two safe claims (Siddharta Goutama and Albert Einstein). I was thinking like crazy about crazy enough fake claims.

[Cavebear with a toothache]

You said the word excellent way too much to be town. I was like, seriously, who would keep saying that? I'm onto you!

Pshaw, you were totally getting lynched anyway, who'd listen to you?

I was just consistently replacing "town" and "towny" with "excellent" in this game... But yeah, maybe you're right. >_>

EBWOP: Whose turn is it to claim next?

Tea at my place after the mass-claim?

Tea sounds good. Who's left? Lovo14 and Thanatos? First to claim gets a cookie at The Jester's tea party!

WhoMe?: Who'd you choose, then? Dr. Mario? Fox McCloud? Yoshi might've been fun; eat your enemies and "insert" them into an egg. ^^