Mini 535: Pick Your Poison 2 (Game Over!)

[Bookitty]

Additionally, Lulubelle, if the doc protects the wrong person and dies, and the scum nightkill, as is possible in your scenario, we lose two townies. If the doc targets someone as discussed in JDodge's plan and mine, and the scum either nightkill him or refrain from their nightkill, the doc may die (losing one townie) and we may mislynch his target, but that target has a fifty/fifty chance of being scum. So we have a 50% chance of lynching scum, and even then we still only lose two townies.

The scum refraining from their nightkill is NOT a point against either plan. The worst case scenario loses us two townies either way. With your plan (or lack thereof) we would lose two townies with no information gained at all.

If I'm wrong, please point this out.

[Bookitty]

Okay, hopefully last time:

UPDATED AND CORRECTED:

• JDodge: Everyone claims who they would protect AND who they would have protected last night. I think these should be done in separate posts to make more work for the scum in sorting through the targets.
  
  Advantages: Regardless of who the weak doc is, we know who they protected, and the scum may not know who to target. Allows for more autonomy on the part of the doc, who is 100% town.
  
  Disadvantages: If the weak doc lives, he/she needs to claim and out themselves to clear a townie. If the weak doc dies, and there is no other nightkill, then the person they targetted has only a 50/50 chance of being scum and may be mislynched. Players who target scum may be at higher risk. Everyone has to claim their targets (excepting the masons) for this to be a viable strategy.
  
  Worst Case Scenario: Scum kill the doc. We mislynch the doc's target. In this scenario we know who the doc protected last night, but if that's Ether or Mizzy we gain no further information. Narrows down the possible doc targets for scum due to the possibility that people will claim they targeted scum, ruling them out as possible docs.

• BooKitty: Everyone decides by majority who should be protected.
  
  Advantages: This runs little risk of outing the doc. Additionally, the person protected would be the person the majority felt was most scummy.
  
  Disadvantages: If the doc dies, and there is no other nightkill, the person targetted has only a 50/50 chance of being scum and may be mislynched. The scum may unduly influence the choice of target (this is major and should NOT be overlooked).
  
  Worst Case Scenario: Scum kill the doc. We lose the information of who the doc protected last night, and mislynch his/her target.

• Porochaz: The weak doc remains in hiding and protects one of the masons.
  
  Advantages: Least chance of outing the weak doc.
  
  Disadvantages: No chance of finding scum with this method.
  
  Worst Case Scenario: The scum kill the doc. We lose all information.

• Mizzy: The weak doc claims now and reveals his/her innocent.
  
  Advantages: We have one more confirmed innocent (unless they targetted Ether or Mizzy).
  
  Disadvantages: No chance of finding scum with this method. Weak doc dies tonight in this scenario, pretty much guaranteed.
  
  Worst Case Scenario: Guaranteed death of the weak doc.

• Lulubelle: The weak doc protects whoever they like without any claims whatsoever.
  
  Advantages: Possible protection of the person Mafia happens to target.
  
  Disadvantages: No chance of finding scum with this method. Weak doc dies if they target Mafia without having claimed their current innocent, may be nightkilled by scum.
  
  Worst case scenario: The weak doc protects someone who is scum. The scum kill a townie. Tomorrow we have lost all information and two town.

[Mizzy]

There are three scum left in a pool of eleven people. That means that approximately 27 percent of the people voting for any candidate are scum.

There are 3 scum left in a pool of 9 people, if you believe Ether and I are confirmed town.

I also don't like the doc-on-their-own plan, but I don't think that an opinion on a plan here makes someone scum or not...for example, I don't think JD is scum because of his plan idea and opinions, I think he might be scum for other reasons.

I also don't feel like "contributions" are enough to make someone who looks like scum less scum.

If Lulu were scum, I can't imagine that she wouldn't have hammered...it would have been a guilt-free hammer because she announced that she was going to (or thinking about it) before hand. Losing one scum to get two more townies dead seems like it would be a really good trade for scummers, especially right now.

@Poro:

I unvoted you after you had been at -1L for a long while, already. ANYone had a few days to hammer.

@JD:

I feel you might be right, if only because I have a feeling the doc is as good as dead now, anyway. I would MUCH rather have even one night of info than none. If we announce targets for both nights, the doc has a damned good chance of dying. But we do get the information.

There's also the added bonus of having the doc being a confirmed townie, dead or alive. If they find/found an innocent we don't know about, that leads us to 5 confirmed townies. We will also know, looking back at the previous days, MUCH more information than we do now, and the scums might stand out like sore thumbs.

I really don't like sentencing someone unknown to their death, and I wish we had a way to ask them if it's okay with them or not...but we don't have that option currently.

Any other thoughts?

[Bookitty]

There are three scum left in a pool of eleven people. That means that approximately 27 percent of the people voting for any candidate are scum.

There are 3 scum left in a pool of 9 people, if you believe Ether and I are confirmed town.

I do, but you and Ether would still have a vote as to who would be protected. That's where the figures come from. 11 people would be voting.

Assume that Porochaz is town and that my scumteam is correct (which is by no means certain, but for the sake of argument). If Lulubelle hammered (Jordan and Scotmany already being on that wagon) all three scum would be on the wagon, and if Porochaz came up town, we'd all be looking very closely at that wagon. If not for that, all scum would pile onto every townwagon, and experience shows that's not the case. It's too obvious and points out the scumteam far too well when the alignment of the lynched person is known.

So the argument about hammering is a two-edged sword. I could be wrong about Lulubelle, and Porochaz might be scum. But I don't think so at the moment, and I'm not voting for someone I don't think is scum.

And while not agreeing with a plan, or preferring one over another, is not proof of anything, suggesting a plan that has already been discussed as the worst possible plan for town can't be viewed as a pro-town move, can it?

[Patrick]

Votecount

YvonneSeer (4) -- Gorrad, Porochaz, Setael, JDodge
Porochaz (3) -- scotmany12, YvonneSeer, JordanA24
Setael (1) -- Ether
Lulubelle (1) -- Bookitty

Not voting: Lulubelle, Mizzy
11 alive, 6 to lynch.

[YvonneSeer]

So much to read in the few days that my internet was down. Anyway, I remember asking Setael something... let me just go and find her reply...

I think you made a slip up with this comment:

Voila, I'm definitely not delusional when I think these exact three are likely scum. *high-fives Mizzy*

As I said before, you used Mizzy's list as vindication for your own suspicions, and didn't even consider the possibility that Mizzy could be scum. Very much looks like you knew Mizzy was town. This is yesterday, before she claimed as a mason so the only way you could've known her alignment is if you're scum.

I already explained this so-called "vindication" that you speak of. We had the same opinion about likely scum, and it can only be one of a few things as of the time of that post:

1. Mizzyscum + Yvonnetown's rotten scumdar

2. Mizzytown's rotten scumdar + Yvonnescum

3. Mizzytown + Yvonnetown (unknown scumdar status of either player)

4. Mizzyscum + Yvonnescum

I know I'm not scum, so I only have to worry about Mizzy's alignment. If she's town, I'm glad that we share similar thoughts about likely scum. If she's scum, my scumdar needs a lot of work. It's just not gonna be something like, "Hmm, Mizzy might be scum and her list is similar to mine, so I should change my list, just in case she's scum." Do you understand what I'm trying to say? Either way, I have to continue my scumhunt instead of second-guessing myself just because someone else has the same list as me. I never once indicated that I was definitely right because someone else agreed with me, rather I was trying to point out for the non-believers, that I was not making my list out of nowhere.

This statement was not the only thing you did that looked as though you were trying to tie yourself to players we now know are town. Mizzy pointed out the link between you, Bookitty, Ether and Mizzy. Either it's a really big coincidence, or you had insider info and were linking yourself to townies to look good.

This link is only obvious in D2 because we are mostly voting the same players and have similar thoughts on likely scum. I don't think you can even find a single post where I've been following any of them. I was also, in fact, wary of Bookitty trying to buddy up to me (I think I mentioned this in my list post), considering the fact that she was the only one who understood my intent for the bandwagon jump I did in early D1.

And just what kind of "insider info" are you suggesting I have? Mizzy was also pressured quite a lot in D1 and you're somewhat suggesting that I somehow knew she was the masoniser and that I somehow knew she would target Ether, and they would both claim and become confirmed townies the next day, so I buddied up to both of them a day earlier? That's preposterous, unless you're implying that this "insider info" is me cheating at the game.

And as I've already said, I have a big problem with you derailing the doc statements. As I said:

I think Yvonne intentionally tried to keep the rest of the players from saying who they would've protected last night in order to stop the doc from saying it in thread and therefore keep us from having another confirmed townie if the doc gets NKd.

I recognize that this is based upon other assumptions I've made, and can't really be discussed further but I'd be shocked if I'm wrong. So, ironically, part of why I think you're scum is the same reason Ether thinks your town. It would be nice to know which of us is correct, but I'm willing to stake my vote on my confidence that I'm right. And if I'm wrong, I'm going to have some words with certain players...

So, you can't reveal this part of the reason why you're voting me. It better be a damn good reason and you're gonna have to be prepared to be wrong and have those words with those certain players.

I don't like Porochaz basically telling mizzy not to talk anymore. Her insight is very helpful - there's a difference between asking someone to let others answer for themselves and what he did. I think one or the other of Yvonne and Porochaz is scum - Porochaz' play toward Yvonne and vice versa looks nothing like potential scum buddies.

I agree that Gorrad and Porochaz are linked - either both town or (in the unlikely even that I'm wrong about Yvonne), both scum.

This is good to know. I hope you will look at them a lot more closely as well as the posts where I'm talking about them, if I'm lynched and the unlikely event that you're wrong about me happens.

[JDodge]

The only plans without the huge drawbacks of the others are mine and Mizzy's, and mine is an enhanced version of Mizzy's.

Get with the claiming.

[JDodge]

Quick question: Who thinks that the weak doc claiming will help the town through confirming 2 more players?

[Bookitty]

All of the plans have drawbacks. I think your plan is better than mine, but I think mine is better than Mizzy's because it at least gives the chance of another investigation.

And in response to your question, I vote for your plan, JDodge. It has bad risks, but at least it's not going to lose us information we could already have. It doesn't definitely confirm two more players, but it certainly could.

vote: JDodge's plan

[scotmany12]

I would prefer jd's plan over everyone else.

@JD, do you feel that you still caught scum in Lulu? If so are you still unwilling to release the tell that you think you got from her?

[Setael]

vote: JDodge's plan

I can see it possibly leading to a mislynch tomorrow, but this is the closest we can get to turning our weak doc into an investigation role.

[JDodge]

I would prefer jd's plan over everyone else.

@JD, do you feel that you still caught scum in Lulu? If so are you still unwilling to release the tell that you think you got from her?

I think I overreacted a bit. She's still one of my top suspects, but there are others who are scummier.

[Mizzy]

I can see it possibly leading to a mislynch tomorrow, but this is the closest we can get to turning our weak doc into an investigation role.

We will just need to take everything with a grain of salt tomorrow, no matter what happens.

[Bookitty]

Vote count on plans so far:

JDodge's plan

: JDodge (obviously), Bookitty, Scotmany, Setael

All other plans

: No one voting yet.

Corrections, additions requested and welcomed.

[Gorrad]

I believe I also stated I support JDodge's plan.

[Bookitty]

Vote count on plans so far:

JDodge's plan

: JDodge (obviously), Bookitty, Scotmany, Setael, Gorrad

All other plans

: No one voting yet.

Corrections, additions requested and welcomed. Thanks, Gorrad!

[JDodge]

SOMEONE HAMMER MY PLAN WILL YOU

[Mizzy]

SOMEONE HAMMER MY PLAN WILL YOU

Oh FINE I vote JD's plan too. (My first hammer ever!)

[Gorrad]

I would have protected Ether yesterday

I would protect Yvonne tonight

[Bookitty]

I would have protected JDodge last night.

I will protect Jordan tonight.

[Setael]

I already said who I would have protected last night.

If Yvonne is not lynched today, I would protect her tonight. If she is lynched, I would protect Lulu.

[scotmany12]

JD last night, jordan tonight.

[Ether]

Sorry. I'll post recent thoughts once the other protection choices are out of the way.

Setael (JDodge)
Jordan (Ever, Bookitty)
Yvonne (Setael, Gorrad, Ether)

Unnecessary (Mizzy, Porochaz)
Unspecified (Yvonne, Lulubelle, Jordan)

[Gorrad]

I would have protected Bookie.

From his first bout of claiming.

[Ether]

I'd protect Setael.