Mini 535: Pick Your Poison 2 (Game Over!)

[Gorrad]

If we claim who we would protect, then if the weak doc dies, we'd know who he targetted. Also, during the night, the scum won't know for certain that the weak doc is targetting scum or not, so it'll be less likely for them to no-kill.

Note: For these purposes, I'm assuming Weak Doc. It could be doc, but this argument is assuming it's not.

[Bookitty]

Okay, so the advantage of JDodge's plan over mine, assuming the scum haven't spotted the weak doc, is that they can't be certain of which player is actually being targetted, so they can't no kill if it turns out to be scum. That said, doesn't it put players at higher risk if they do say they're going to protect scum? And we have no way of knowing that.

Plus, if we're going to "protect" the person we find scummiest, doesn't that mean a lot of people will be "protecting" the same people?

[JDodge]

I disagree; weak doc is better as a pseudo-cop than as a protector. Instead of directing a weak doc, I want everyone to claim who they would protect tonight if they were a weak doc.

I'd protect Setael.

We did not decide to do this. You can't just tell us all to do something without discussion or agreement and expect us to do it.

Luckily I don't need your info. Quit being so damn difficult and listen to reason for once, k?

[JDodge]

Okay, so the advantage of JDodge's plan over mine, assuming the scum haven't spotted the weak doc, is that they can't be certain of which player is actually being targetted, so they can't no kill if it turns out to be scum. That said, doesn't it put players at higher risk if they do say they're going to protect scum? And we have no way of knowing that.

Plus, if we're going to "protect" the person we find scummiest, doesn't that mean a lot of people will be "protecting" the same people?

Yes. But the advantage of my plan over yours is that the scum don't know who's being protected.

[Mizzy]

Don't these options basically amount to the same thing? Or am I missing something?

Is one way significantly safer for the doc?

I think they end up being the same thing. Don't they? Town knows who the doc protected, if they die, and if scum kills the doc, we're still not worse off than we would be if they just killed the doc anyway, right?

JDodge's plan and my plan both seem to amount to the same thing. The opposing plan is Porochaz's, to protect the masons (despite his suspicions, it's still a good plan). So there are two plans under consideration. If I'm wrong, please say so, but I don't see any difference (better or worse) between JDodge's plan and my plan, in its general effect. So I don't care which one is chosen between those two.

Mizzy: Or the scum are already all on his wagon (or afraid to hammer?). This can't be ruled out.

A downside to JD's plan is that is gives the scum clues as to WHO the weak doc is. They know who they will target...if that target doesn't die, then we've narrowed down for them who the weak doc is. If we state a name to protect, then it doesn't narrow the field for scum.

[Mizzy]

Luckily I don't need your info. Quit being so damn difficult and listen to reason for once, k?

I will stop being difficult when you stop being a tyrant. So, probably never, in either case.

[JDodge]

Luckily I don't need your info. Quit being so damn difficult and listen to reason for once, k?

I will stop being difficult when you stop being a tyrant. So, probably never, in either case.

If by "tyrant" you mean "correct", then no, I will not cease to be a "tyrant".

[Mizzy]

If by "tyrant" you mean "correct", then no, I will not cease to be a "tyrant".

No, by tyrant, I mean it's proper definition.

[JDodge]

If by "tyrant" you mean "correct", then no, I will not cease to be a "tyrant".

No, by tyrant, I mean it's proper definition.

Glad you agree that my definition is correct.

GRAMMAR NITPICK WOO

[Mizzy]

Like I said, not likely to stop in either case.

As to the pros and cons of the mass-protect-claim, they've already been covered at length. Just go re-read the conversations we had previously...all sides and options were already covered.

The horse is fucking dead now; you can all stop beating it.

[JDodge]

The horse is fucking dead now; you can all stop beating it.

We did not decide to do this. You can't just tell us all to do something without discussion or agreement and expect us to do it.

[Bookitty]

Okay, does anyone think it's likely that in either case, the weak doc should not claim tomorrow assuming he/she is still alive?

There is the flaw in your logic, Mizzy. We can't assume the scum haven't figured out who the weak doc is already. If the weak doc has an innocent to give us tomorrow, we NEED that info, and if the weak doc protects someone and is dead, we NEED to know who they protected.

JDodge is presenting his ideas, I'm presenting mine, Porochaz is presenting his and you are presenting yours. I'd like to hear what other people think too, but no one is being a tyrant and preventing other people from doing just what they want to do. If they don't want to claim who they would protect, JDodge can't make them do so.

And I don't feel it's beating a dead horse, because, what's the useful alternative? Are you supporting Porochaz's plan?

[JDodge]

And I don't feel it's beating a dead horse, because, what's the useful alternative? Are you supporting Porochaz's plan?

Of course she's supporting Prozac's plan, she wants herself alive tomorrow so she can continue making baseless, unquestioned leaps of logic because "she's confirmed".

[Mizzy]

We did not decide to do this. You can't just tell us all to do something without discussion or agreement and expect us to do it.

I said CAN...as an option. Not as an order.

@Bookitty:

If you are going by that logic, then having the doc claim

now

would get us the same information without the possibility of the scum killing the doc before we get to hear it. If the scum might already know who the weak doc is, then going to night without them telling us who they protected LAST night is just as shitty for the town.

What I'm saying is that they have an innocent NOW. If you're worried about risking the innocent they might get tonight, why aren't you worried about the innocent they got yesterday?

So the question is, do we want the information we have now or do we want to fish for more? IF we fish for more, do we want to do so giving the scum more info or less info?

[Bookitty]

What if they have an innocent on you or Ether?

That's the problem.

I'm trying to outline the plans so they're clear, with their advantages and disadvantages, and when I've done that, I would ask EVERYONE to pick them apart and find the mistakes in them, so that they are correct and complete before we ask people to choose between them.

If there are other plans, I'll include those as well. But we need to be clear on the advantages/disadvantages/ramifications of ALL the plans before we choose any of them, in my view.

[Mizzy]

If there are other plans, I'll include those as well. But we need to be clear on the advantages/disadvantages/ramifications of ALL the plans before we choose any of them, in my view.

That's why I unvoted Poro, for more discussion, and that's why I don't like what JD did (again). We ALL need to help decide.

So before we decide something, why don't we wait for everyone to tell us what plans or ideas we have and put them in posts with conceivable pros and cons? We can discuss those easier without all the lil posts getting in the way.

[Bookitty]

Okay. The plans, as I understand them.

• JDodge: Everyone claims who they would protect.
  
  Advantages: Regardless of who the weak doc is, we know who they protected, and the scum may not know who to target. Allows for more autonomy on the part of the doc.
  
  Disadvantages: If the weak doc lives, he/she needs to claim and out themselves to clear a townie. If the weak doc dies, and there is no other nightkill, then the person they targetted has only a 50/50 chance of being scum and may be mislynched. Players who target scum may be at higher risk. Everyone has to claim their target (excepting the masons) for this to be a viable strategy.

• BooKitty: Everyone decides by majority who should be protected.
  
  Advantages: This runs little risk of outing the doc. Additionally, the person protected would be the person the majority felt was most scummy.
  
  Disadvantages: If the doc dies, and there is no other nightkill, the person targetted has only a 50/50 chance of being scum and may be mislynched. The scum may unduly influence the choice of target (this is major and should NOT be overlooked).

• Porochaz: The weak doc remains in hiding and protects one of the masons.
  
  Advantages: Least chance of outing the weak doc.
  
  Disadvantages: No chance of finding scum with this method.

• Mizzy: The weak doc claims now and reveals his/her innocent.
  
  Advantages: We have one more confirmed innocent.
  
  Disadvantages: No chance of finding scum with this method. Weak doc dies tonight in this scenario, pretty much guaranteed.

PLEASE pick these apart and tell me if I've made mistakes or overlooked something.

[Mizzy]

@Kitty: Yes, like that! Perfect! Okay, I'm going to shut up now for a while and just read as conversation comes in.

[Patrick]

Votecount

YvonneSeer (4) -- Gorrad, Porochaz, Setael, JDodge
Porochaz (4) -- scotmany12, Bookitty, YvonneSeer, JordanA24
Setael (1) -- Ether

Not voting: Lulubelle, Mizzy
11 alive, 6 to lynch.

[JDodge]

We did not decide to do this. You can't just tell us all to do something without discussion or agreement and expect us to do it.

I said CAN...as an option. Not as an order.

@Bookitty:

If you are going by that logic, then having the doc claim

now

would get us the same information without the possibility of the scum killing the doc before we get to hear it. If the scum might already know who the weak doc is, then going to night without them telling us who they protected LAST night is just as shitty for the town.

What I'm saying is that they have an innocent NOW. If you're worried about risking the innocent they might get tonight, why aren't you worried about the innocent they got yesterday?

So the question is, do we want the information we have now or do we want to fish for more? IF we fish for more, do we want to do so giving the scum more info or less info?

Which is why I want to finish with last night's protection target claims as well; it provides all the benefits of your plan with the added bonus of not telling the scum who the weak doc is yet.

[Porochaz]

Hmmm... I like how you claimed Im scum because I hadnt been lynched yet except you were the one to unvote me, (for valid reasons of your own, Ill admit) however if I hadnt Im sure Lulu would have by now.

Ok I think I am the most likely lynch today (obv) but I am still going to contribute as much as I can to tomorrow... looking at the plans I feel you have a stronger foothold with my idea in general with my idea that was missed out in the pro's and cons... if the weak doc gets targeted by scum is unlikely... however I do take on board other peoples plans... Mizzy's plan I feel is not good, it doesn't give us any discernable advantage, I dont think. I still feel mine is a good idea, however I can see the risks involved in it. I also feel JDodges plan is to risky. I vote for Bookittys Plan. I feel its the most safe and advantageous to the town.

[Lulubelle]

Im sure Lulu would have by now.

If I had wanted you hammered post haste, I would have during the three days you were on L-1. So long as discussion is going somewhere, it's fine by me.

As far as these little plans go they're all terrible. JDodge's is the only one that

might

produce worthwhile, reliable information although the odds of that happening are probably low. Bookitty's and Porochaz's have nothing going for them at all.

The best thing to do would be to let the doc do what docs are supposed to do: try to protect people. Let the doc try to avoid scum and prevent the nightkill tonight, and let them decide whether or not to claim on day three. On day three they'll have prevented a kill and confirmed two townies if they're alive. If they hit scum or are nightkilled, we'll still have their night one result from the last round of claims. There is very little chance for us to learn of their target in a reliable way beforehand because

a weakdoc is simply not a cop

. The odds of us getting a reliable guilty verdict that we can act on without chance of a mislynch is vanishingly small.

[Porochaz]

I disagree and still find Bookie's plan better... however its another option to add to the list of options...

[Lulubelle]

Bookitty's plan is completely pointless. If the target is scum, the scum will not nightkill. The doc dies and we get no actionable information. If the target is town, we will not confirm the existance of a weakdoc (I remind you that though many seem to consider it a foregone conclusion Gorrad considered it a foregone conclusion that we had no cop), so we do not confirm the alignment of the target and we get no actionable information.

It is a waste of time.

[Bookitty]

Currently I prefer JDodge's plan to my own because of this fact:

There are three scum left in a pool of eleven people. That means that approximately 27 percent of the people voting for any candidate are scum. If we allow the doc to choose their own target, the percent of scum choosing the target to be protected is zero. That seems to me to be a big advantage for his plan. My opinion is that the best case scenario involves getting one more night of information from the doc before he/she claims, and the worst case scenario is... well, Lulubelle's plan, actually.

Lulubelle's plan (let the doc actually try to protect someone without giving us any information at all) is the worst of the lot. It actually is ANTI-town, as was previously discussed with Mizzy, because it combines gaining no information from the doctor with the high risk that he/she will either be nightkilled or will protect the wrong person. Additionally, it assumes that the doc would protect someone who would otherwise be targetted for the nightkill, which is an extreme long shot in my view.

Actually, this makes me feel better about something I've wondered about for a while. I have become less and less certain that Porochaz is scum due to his contributions, and I've wondered about a Scotmany/Jordan/Lulubelle scumteam. These people (with the exception of Lulubelle, who seemed to come under suspicion that didn't go anywhere) have mostly flown under the radar. I could be wrong, but Lulubelle's suggestion of a plan that not only doesn't gain town any further information, but also threatens to lose us the information we've already gained, is very telling in my view.

unvote; vote Lulubelle