And now, for a brief history of Nudude in day 3. I will mention beforehand that this does not constitute the entirety of his posting, but it does constitute the majority thereof. Most of those posts I've skipped are the most recent, as they're easier for people to reference on their own. I will be interjecting every once in a while, based on what Nudude says, but I will do my best not to interject into posts themselves, so that the integrity, what of it there is, of Nudude's posts remains.
Nudude wrote:The sole basis of you thinking I'm scum is that I didn't immeditaely investigate DS. I was the first one to vote for him, and I didn't move my vote even when he was at L1. Doesn't that say anything?
I swapped and changed my votes all through D2, so I had a perfectly good excuse to take him off L-1, and put my vote on someone else.
I really don't know what else I can say.
I also find it very interesting that you are stuck on lynching me. Consider Thanatos for example. I don't believe his role - claim one bit.
Yesterday he said he's going to roleclaim today. What possible advantage could he gain from that? The simple answer is there is no advantage at all.
He needed an excuse to say he was "Role blocked", so he tells everyone yesterday that he was going to role - claim.
Here's the thing though. IF we have a role blocker, why would he block you? You admit your going to role claim, and since it makes no sense for a mafia to role - claim, we can only assume your going to claim a pro - town role. So why would a role - blocker block you? It makes no sense.
I'll make this easy for everyone.
VOTE: Thanatos
If I'm wrong, lynch me tomorrow. I'll vote for myself as the first act of the day.
Ahh, the damning self-sacrificial quote that's been dogging Nudude all day. I feel that it's been discussed quite thoroughly, so I will say nothing further other than to mark its presence here. I would like to point out that, from the very beginning, Nudude has been unprepared to accept the mere possibility that the scum have a RBer on their side. This is a fairly substantial part of why I believe that he is, specifically, that role.
Nudude wrote:
I'm going on the record and saying that at anytime this game you a proven to be a vig, I will vote for myself. I'm not sure what brand of scum you are though. Your either a one - shot mafia assassin, or an SK who thought he'd pull a clever stunt by opting out of his NK. But you are scum, I've no doubt.
At no time yesterday did I advocate a lynch. The closest I came was saying that I was so sure DS was scum, that I wasn't moving my vote. If you will remember correctly I took you off L-1 the other day. I wanted people to talk and discuss things, come up with ideas and theories and see who defended who and how the votes moved.
I pressed just about everyone that day, except for VL because I, along with just about everyone else, believed he was the cop, and liamcool, because if I believed VL was a cop, then I must believe his investigation.
It's possible that liamcool is the GF, but it's also possible to flip a coin twelve times and have it comes up heads every single time. Possible, but very unlikely. I've explained a few times why I didn't grill DS, and the only time I really supported him was when he was looking at DLS.
I'll remind everyone how he started the day attacking you, and then you both very quickly moved to attacking DLS. He was quiet after his initial attack on DLS, so I'm not sure how you drew the conclusion I was backing him "Most of the time", when he was hardly there. Your stretching the facts to suit your story.
I didn't know who scum were, just like the rest of the town. So I pushed and watched what happened. I don't believe scum are just going to come out and saying something incriminating, so I had a look at everyone. The whole time I encouraged people to conduct their own investigations and draw their own conclusions, and I still do.
I don't buy your reasons for claiming one bit. If your objective was to sacrifice yourself to try save VL, you could have claimed cop after DS was hammered. You could have said "I'm the vig, and I will be killing "X" tonight, and Y tomorrow", and then simply not gone through with it, rationlising on the chance you pick a scum, they would've had to have killed you to save themselves.
If your sure I'm scum, and you meant it when you said you were willing to sacrifice yourself, why not let us lynch you today, so then everyone will know I'm scum and lynch me tomorrow?
You won't do it, because the truth is your not actually willing to sacrifice yourself, that your actually scum that cooked up a story that makes you look noble for being willing to sacrifice yourself.
Prove me wrong.
Here's a section of troubling logic that I missed initially, and only noticed on my last read-through. Nudude has here said that he's ready to participate in his own lynch on D4 if his suspicions come up bad, but demands that Thanatos not only play by the same standard, but do so
today
. That's terrible strategy, regardless, and is WIFOM at its most distilled. In essence, Nudude is using his claimed self-sacrificial nature here to try and hammer Thanatos for a claim that he doesn't like. To say the least, I'm not a fan.
Nudude wrote:
It's not at all equal. DS was about to get lynched, and said that to save his neck. Here, it's the beginning of the day, no votes, and if anything it makes me look more suspicious, not less.
I doubt there is a mafia role blocker. If there was, it would have made more sense to block VL, thus making him and liamcool look suspicious, while NK Thanatos, a self confessed power role, which was likely a vig/sk given the two NK's on D1?
Also, his N1 kill made no sense at all. VL and liamcool looked more suspicious then insurgent at that time, so if you were going to take a shot in the dark, why not one them? Why did you kill a guy who had just replaced into the game, that no - one had a read on and had made a grand total of four posts? That was your best guess?
It fits better if your an SK, because it's in your best interests to leave suspicious people in play, whereas a Vig taking a shot in the dark would probably go for someone more suspicious than a guy who was in the game just a little over 24 hours?
My vote stands, and as you all know, I'm betting my life on it.
I'd like people to pay attention to the bolded part right here- again, this is something that I myself missed. However, Nudude is on record here as saying that it's much more likely that Thanatos is SK than Vig. It was only after the town started saying "Ok, we're fine with that, since the scum still would want to kill him" that Nudude recanted this and said that it's very unlikely that Than was an SK.
Some people play by a very simple creed in this game- Lynch All Liars. I'm not sure if Nudude's reversal in this matter constitutes a lie, but it's extremely suspicious to me.
Nudude wrote:
By all means, think about it for yourself and take your time, no rush.
It's impossible to be 100% certain wether or not someone is scum untill they go to the noose, but comparing the stretches of thinking required to justify Thanatos is an Vig, versus how the pieces fit together if Thanatos is an SK, I feel certain he the SK.
I also think of the consequences of being wrong if he is an SK. There are seven players, I'd say 4 townies and 3 scum (2 mafia + 1 SK). Now if we lynch a townie, and Thanatos is an SK, we could lose 3 townies in one day/night, making 1 townie and 3 scum, meaning the the town will almost certainly lose, as the mafia will kill Thanatos, and even if Thanatos picks a mafia to kill, that leaves 1 townie and 1 mafia, which means town lose.
No matter how I look at it, I don't trust Thanatos enough to put the game in his hands. If we lynch Thanatos, we know for a fact only one townie will die tonight, and if turns out we were wrong and he is a vig, you'll have confirmed me as scum (which I'm not!) and will know who to lynch.
The question is, do you trust Thanatos enough to risk only having one townie tomorrow?
Again, bolded part for emphasis- Nudude is certain here that Thanatos is the SK.
Nudude wrote:
Did you even read my last post?
In it I explained why it's more risky trusting that Thanatos is a vig.
There's a few people that haven't posted in a few days.
I've presented my theories and ideas, and explained why. Some people have said they dis - agree, but don't present any alternative theories either.
If you don't agree with me, fine, but at least do something about it! Post some thoughts you have, alternative theories, do some investigating. It's like everyone says "I'm not sure, I want to think about this" but then does nothing about it!
Come up with some ideas and evidence supporting your case. It frustrating for me because I've done my research and have concluded Thanatos is scum, but everyone else is just waiting for some magical piece of evidence to fall in our laps.
Give me something to change my mind, or vote for Thanatos and knock another scum out of the game.
Do something, anything!
More WIFOM logic here, but it's interesting to note that Nudude is here ignoring himself as a viable target of suspicion- in essence, he's accusing everyone else that's not against Thanatos of slacking and/or lurking. Given the fact that, by this point, there were several long and well-articulated posts of suspicion regarding Nudude, I find this odd, but not necessarily damning.
Nudude wrote:
If you read my posts, I've been saying I am convinced that Thanatos is an SK, and presented my case, and that if people didn't agree with that, to do their own investigating.
Can you explain why he killed someone who was in the game a little over 24 hours after they entered the game, while ignoring a slew of suspicious characters?
Can you explain how he knew he'd been roled - blocked? My understanding is that most of the time you don't told why your attempt fails. I could be a GF, there could be a back - up doc, there could be many reasons, but he was sure he'd been role - blocked....how?
Can you explain why you said that an SK is counted as a townie in an end game situation, when this thread:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... +killer%2A
Would seem to indicate that is false? The only true way to know a win condition is by reading your role PM, but it's clear that a SK is not consdiered a townie in an end game situation....why mis - represent the facts?
Can you explain why you finished off DS yesterday before he had a chance to say anything, a stark contrast to today where your calling for calm, rational consideration. I agree that people should take their time and analyse the info.....so why did you yourself rush to the lynch yesterday? Because you were sure he was scum? How is me being sure your scum any different, except that I'm calling for people to prove me wrong, not neccesarily agree with me and rush to the lynch?
In summary,
1. His best guess D1 was a guy with four posts and who had replaced into the game a little over 24 hours before the lynch, despite there being more suspicious characters.
2. He cannot possibly have known he was role - blocked.
3. He claimed that an SK is counted as a townie in an end game situation. This is false, unless a role PM says otherwise.
4. He killed DS before he had a chance to open his mouth. It turned out he was scum, but I'd hardly call that a carefully considered act. I feel if your going to ask for carefully considered acts, then you should also carefully consider how you act, but twice this game you've been quite brash with your decisions.
Just so were clear, I have no problem with everyone taking their time to look things over. I'm just saying I'm pretty damned sure he is scum, and I'm presenting my case. I encourage everyone to present their own.
Nothing particularly interesting here, except to contrast against his very first statement in his very next post.
Nudude wrote:
I have to admit, you make some good points. It doesn't make alot of sense if your a SK.
In fact, the one theory I came up with is that if you are an SK, it's in your best interests to kill scum tonight if we lynch a townie, in which case we should let you live one more night at the very least just in case we get it wrong today.
The thing is I'm certain your scum, well as certain as anyone can be who isn't psychic. There are some things in your story that just don't add up, which I've pointed out. Everyone will have to draw their own conclusions from that.
Here are a couple of alternatives I have:
1. Scum = 1xGF 1xRB 1xOne shot assassin.
This is a powerful mafia group, but there would probably have to be another pro - town power role to offset this. Thanatos could be the one - shot assasin, say he's a blocked vig, and if the role blocker gets lynched it will lend alot of weight to his claim.
2. Scum = 1xGF 1xGoon 1xRB.
A little less powerful, but another pro - town role would probably be justified in this setup.
Did you see that? In the space of one post, Nudude reversed his stance on how likely Thanatos was to be a SK. Literally, one post he was certain that Than was a SK, and the next he was pretty sure that he wasn't. Not only that, but there was only one post in bestwwn these two, and that one came from Thanatos himself.
Be careful, or you'll get whiplash from the logical reversals here.
Nudude wrote:
I feel most of the players in this game are playing it cautiously at the moment, waiting for other people to post, and hoping that it will be the post that clears everything up.
I don't feel this is likely to happen. Most players have already stated the things they believe, and why they believe them. If there was going to be something said to set you on your course, I daresay it would already have been said.
I suggest everyone takes the time to read back over the thread. It may take about an hour, give or take, but I think it will help everyone get a better idea of where they stand.
Try to do it with an open mind. Pretend your not actually in this game, your just perusing it from an outside view. Try to figure out what each person is trying to accomplish when they post.
I know we were waiting on gorgon to post, but it seems like we're not coming up with many new ideas and evidence, as much as waiting for someone to say something that incriminates them. I don't believe scum are just going to come out and say something stupid. I feel we need to come up with theories, run them by people, and see how people respond to them.
I've been doing my fair share of that this game. I would like to see someone else try it. I don't mind doing it myself, but last time I did I got two votes for it.
So, who's going to generate some discussion?
Finally, Nudude begins to address the suspicion levied against him. His response? "Go and reread the thread," even though the
entirety
of the case against him is based on his most recent behavior. This seems to me to be a very thinly veiled attempt to try and clear himself for recent missteps by leveraging a more townish past history.
Nudude wrote:
I drew this conclusion from Gorgon's post.
He's eager to explore new possibilites. His post is well though out and he presents rational evidence. As for myself, IRL my work revolves around statistics, and statisical it is unlikely liamcool is the GF, so I will need something very compelling to vote for liam. However, even though statiscally it's unlikely liamcool is the GF, I don't feel any problem with gorgon exploring the possibility if he feels it's an avenue worth persuing.
As for me, you critisied me for my narrow pursuit of Thanatos, yet you are just as narrow minded, if not more-so, in your pursuit of me, your just using less words than I did.
I am going to suggest having a read over the thread, pulling up some evidence, and presenting some theories to us. Hell, investigate me if you want, just do something more than pick apart individual posts.
Again, Nudude is trying to trade off his past behavior to clear himself. He supports an investigation that he feels unlikely and, finally, attacks his accusors for focusing on him. In short, he says "Go look at anyone else but me." That's scum talk.
I've posted recently on Nudude's more recent items, and they're mostly a continuation of the end of this. The inconsistencies in Nudude's stance on just about everything have officially put him over the top for me. Nudude, you accused us all of being unwilling to come out and formally accuse someone of being scum, for fear of looking scummy tomorrow. Well, here's what you asked for.
Nudude, you're scum. The first red flag was the fact that the only person you refused to spearhead an investigation on in day 2 was the one that turned up scum. The second was when you then attacked Thanatos, and nobody else that was a part of that 5-person lynch, for lynching him (though I agree that i would have liked to see it take longer). The third was when you refused to consider any of the several reasonable scum team composition scenarios that various members of the town put forward, so long as any of those spreads included a scum RBer.
You encourage discussion, so long as it's not about you. You oppose the prevailing thinking on Thanatos' role, whatever it may be, so long as it damns him to the noose. As suspicious as I was of Thanatos yesterday (and remember, I voted on him towards the end of the day with the intent of moving him towards a lynch), your dogged pursuit of him in the face of all logic and, dare I say, common sense defies explanation. Your logic is not only dangerous for yourself, but terrible for the town. I would go so far as to say that the only way that your logic makes any sense whatsoever is that you're scum.
On top of this persistent, bahavioral scumminess, you've made several slip-ups today that, to me, serve to highlight the dangerous logic, poor judgment, and suspicious calls for action that you've made the whole day through.
If anyone does not
wholeheartedly
agree with my logic on Nudude, I heartily encourage them to unvote
immediately
, and continue the town's discussion. I say this because 24 hours from right now, regardless of the vote count at that time, I will vote for Nudude.
Ha! I'm being snarky and condescending to you on an internet forum! Take that, some guy I'll never meet!
