Open 64 - Vengeful Mafia - (Game Over!!) before 551

[TheStranger]

I think TSPN is too certain I'm scum, after I've made only three posts. My questions were intentionally over-aggressive, and I particularly don't like a few of his responses to this "preassure."


Btw I'm glad the wiki was mentioned, because I did not knonw there was one. I see now that the mod even hyperlinked it in the first post. But the numbers you refer to, TSPN, don't really apply to the current situation. They're based on random votes and random vigs which is certainly not how the game is played, and it's not how a quicklynch like that would work either.

I want to hear something from Yvonne...

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

It did occur to me that your certainty was making me overly certain myself, which is a trap I don't really want to fall into.

However, I disagree about the numbers not applying. In the scenario of a townie quicklynch, even assuming an accurate vig kill, we still only have a 33.3 percent chance of winning. If we lynch scum, we have a 50 percent chance of winning immediately and even then have three more lynches in which to get the last remaining scum. Its seriously not in the town's interest to encourage self-lynch, which is why xtoxm's play was anti-town, which, no, does not necessarily make him scum, but still a bad play.

And yeah, I'd like to hear more from xtoxm and yvonne. As much fun as arguing with you is. . . I'd particularly like to hear xtoxm's thoughts on our argument over his play.

[Xtoxm]

I didn't realise the statistics were like that...I thought one scum for one town would be a good trade off. That's why I didn't think i'd be hammered on page 1, because if I did the scum would have been outing themselves for an easy trade off.

[TheStranger]

Well it's not quite that the numbers don't apply at all, they do provide a general picture. But I think it's a mistake to base our decicisons on how random voters would fair.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Alright, whatever. Apply your own numbers. What do you think the odds of two townies lynching one mafia are? Then ask yourself what the odds of three mafia lynching one townies are, and add them to the same odds of two townies lynching one mafia are. Then consider the odds of the first lynched townie guessing wrong. Then factor in the possibility of lynching the godfather day 1. Then come back and tell me we shouldn't worry about lynching scum day 1.

[YvonneSeer]

Hmm, I'll post in a few hours' time. I need to gather my thoughts first.

[TheStranger]

looking for some new input, if anyone has any.

[Xtoxm]

Hmm, I'll post in a few hours' time. I need to gather my thoughts first.

You said few hours it's been a few days now.

[Kinetic]

All of the watches simultaneously start ringing. A highly distorted voice emits from the small speaker on the side in a rather loud voice:

"You must continue your discussion and make a decision! If I see another lull like this I'm going to set a countdown timer. And when that timer hits 0, someone will die. One way or another."

[Lloyd]

While we wait for YvonneSeer to gather her thoughts...

What does everyone think Mayor Gruden? I liked the hot chocolate that he served us.

I hope that generator lasts us remainder of winter.

[Xtoxm]

While we wait for YvonneSeer to gather her thoughts...

What does everyone think Mayor Gruden? I liked the hot chocolate that he served us.

I hope that generator lasts us remainder of winter.

I don't have a clue what you're on about?

[YvonneSeer]

While we wait for YvonneSeer to gather her thoughts...

What does everyone think Mayor Gruden? I liked the hot chocolate that he served us.

I hope that generator lasts us remainder of winter.

I don't have a clue what you're on about?

Lloyd's talking about the game's opening flavour.

Sorry I stalled the game but my wireless internet has been really unstable. Anyway, my thoughts have been gathered at last and here's the long-awaited post.

---

Basically, TSPN is right. Xtoxm's self-vote was not a pro-town thing to do if he's a townie. A vig kill from a lynched townie is not as good as lynching scum instead and you can do the math yourself with some help from the wiki. I had read the wiki beforehand because it was a different setup and I didn't want to screw-up. Xtoxm claims he didn't realise the statistics were like that and I might be inclined to believe him, since prior to having read the wiki, I thought it was a good trade-off as well to vig a scum after being lynched.

Now, on to some player analysis with what's going on so far:

TSPN:

I was very pleased with his Post 14 because it looked like he knew Xtoxm's self-vote was a bad move as well, perhaps also from having read the wiki. However, he got immediately sidetracked by TheStranger, which I have two different opinions about:

1. It was understandable that he suspected TheStranger considering that TheStranger was taking heat off Xtoxm when TSPN had a reasonable suspicion of Xtoxm's self-vote.

2. It was very hasty to immediately jump on TheStranger considering that Xtoxm's self-vote should have been examined more closely but instead TSPN went on with a debate with TheStranger while Xtoxm got out of the mess.

I don't know for sure which one it is, but I'm kind of leaning towards the second one.

FoS TSPN

. TSPN, you started off well but I'm currently most suspicious of you.

TheStranger:

I didn't like his Post 17 at all. He baited TSPN for whatever reason he had, and TSPN decided to bite. I can't say much about the debate between the two because TheStranger didn't read the wiki and the math part of him is still rather confused about it all but I do agree with him when he says TSPN is rather certain about him being scum after so few posts, which contributed to my FoS on TSPN as well. However, looking back, I can also see TheStranger doing the same as TSPN but a slightly more toned-down version instead. This makes me wonder if TSPN and TS are scum together, both having heavily bussed each other in the early game over a matter

regarding another player

. Something to think about for now.

Xtoxm:

Need I say anything else further about his self-vote? My initial thought: Scum trying to pull off some kind of a gambit. Then I wondered whether he didn't read the wiki and thought it was a good 1-for-1 trade just like I did, before I read the wiki. I gave him the benefit of the doubt and tried to coax him into revealing his reason for that self-vote. Now, I'm still rather on the fence with this guy. I'll need to see some substantial posts from him for now.

Lloyd:

You barely posted much (yes, the same can be said for myself, but I'm posting something now) and the posts which you do have contain nothing where you truly scumhunt. And no, I didn't overlook your analysis, which I must say, is quite ambitious, since it came after only 9 game posts, only 1 of which contained any real content. Why are you so eager to pair everyone off with nothing whatsoever to go on? Are you waiting to take control of town? I await more posts from you so that I can see where you stand.


This is how I currently see the rest of the players. Respond as you see fit.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Fine, I

will

respond as I see fit.

At this point, I'm leaning toward letting xtoxm off the hook. Evidently he wasn't the only person who didn't think through the numbers. Which is not to say he isn't scum, because he hasn't really contributed much to the game except for that (possibly inadvertent) anti-town play.

I still think thestranger's scum. I know, I'm too certain, etc, etc. But I feels it in my bones.

Yvonne and lloyd have also been semi-lurking, so there's not a lot to read off of them. But in general, although I'm not a big fan of yvonne's conclusion (obviously), I like her analysis, so that's a small point in her favor.

[Lloyd]

Don't like Lloyd's analysis. Hints at a pairing with me and Yvonne, then FOS's someone else for not posting yet.

I do agree that I don't terribly like lloyd's analysis, but I think he might have been just trying to jumpstart the game.

Lloyd:

Why are you so eager to pair everyone off with nothing whatsoever to go on?

I stand by my post. In other games that reach size of 5, postings with pairings eventually happen. Doing so in this game help generate discussion, which I find more useful than alternative of placing a random vote that I had considered initially.

[Lloyd]

I still think thestranger's scum. I know, I'm too certain, etc, etc. But I feels it in my bones.

Between you, TheStranger, Xtoxm, and YvonneSeer, I actually find TheStranger to be the least scummy, which contributes to my suspicion of you.

Is your argument against TheStranger mostly based on the other game that you referred to earlier? Your meta-gaming reference seems Wifom-ish, because you seem to be accusing TheStranger of doing something in this game that you find similar to what you did in the other game.

[Lloyd]

Oh, hello! Are you scum?

Yeh

Ah, putting yourself at L-1. A classic townie move.

What?

Sarcasm aside, explain your reason for a self-vote and why you think it's a pro-town move.

While we wait for YvonneSeer to gather her thoughts...

What does everyone think Mayor Gruden? I liked the hot chocolate that he served us.

I hope that generator lasts us remainder of winter.

I don't have a clue what you're on about?

Lloyd's talking about the game's opening flavour.

Xtoxm and YvonneSeer,

It feels like there are two conversations going on in this game:

There is the main one between TheStranger and TheSweatpantsNinja, first discussing Xtoxm's self-vote, and now about each other's accusatory posts.

In the background, there seems to be a separate one between you two in a casual manner. In larger games, I would think that you are masons subtly answering each other's questions in the background.

In this game, since we don't have masons, your banter seems suspicious to me.

[Lloyd]

Well it's not quite that the numbers don't apply at all, they do provide a general picture. But I think it's a mistake to base our decicisons on how random voters would fair.

I agree. Instead of math of random voters, I would rather focus on posts in this game.

Random

vote: Xtoxm

Is your vote still random, or is now for Xtoxm's self-vote?

In hindsight, your random vote seems precarious for a game this small (potential for a quick lynch), but the same can be said for Xtoxm's self-voting.

It seems a little suspicious that you have been accusing TheSweatpantsNinja, yet voting for someone else.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

I disagree with TheStranger not voting for me as being suspicious. That would put me at L-1, and as I hope I've bludgeoned into everyone,

a quicklynch is in the scum's favor.

Doesn't matter how obvious it is, a town lynch is bad news. We shouldn't lynch or even put anyone at L-1 until we're sure. As much as I usually despise FOS's, they are the way to go today.

I agree. Instead of math of random voters, I would rather focus on posts in this game.

The random math becomes relevant when two players are arguing that we're no worse off with two mafia/one townie than our current situation.

2. It was very hasty to immediately jump on TheStranger considering that Xtoxm's self-vote should have been examined more closely but instead TSPN went on with a debate with TheStranger while Xtoxm got out of the mess.

Well, xtoxm wasn't around, and my examination of xtoxm's vote was being directly challenged. I don't really see him as out of the mess. I am leaning toward him being town, but I haven't forgotten that he put himself at L-1 and no one hammered, which, to be honest, is still somewhat inconceivable to me unless, of course, he is scum. But

evidently

I have to consider the possibility that the scum were not aware of the benefits to the quicklynch.

And yvonne: WIFOM, I know, but as scum, why would I do what I did? What are my motivations for calling out xtoxm's vote as a bad idea?

And xtoxm: Going back to vote of me: Look at my reaction and Yvonne's reaction. Between the two of us, am I really the one who seems uncertain in that situation?

Man, for some reason this game really gets my blood up. Sorry for more long rantish posts.

[TheStranger]

I've accused TSPN of doing a few scummy things, but I'm by no means convinced he's scum.

And my vote is still random.

[TheStranger]

that was in reference to lloyd's post

[Xtoxm]

And xtoxm: Going back to vote of me: Look at my reaction and Yvonne's reaction. Between the two of us, am I really the one who seems uncertain in that situation?

Yvonne may well be uncertain too, but after I read through all your reaction's, your's hit me as uncertain.

[Xtoxm]

Something i'd to point out, the banter between TSPN and TS was a bit too reaching in my eyes for them to be distancing as a scum pair. If one of them came up scum i'd be pretty convinced the other was innocent.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Yvonne may well be uncertain too, but after I read through all your reaction's, your's hit me as uncertain.

At what point, in your eyes, did I become certain? Could I ask you to be more specific?

[Xtoxm]

Yvonne may well be uncertain too, but after I read through all your reaction's, your's hit me as uncertain.

At what point, in your eyes, did I become certain? Could I ask you to be more specific?

I didn't say you sounded certain at any point...I don't see how a single post can change it's perspective from uncertain to certain.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

Well, it seems to me, between having a multiple post argument, linking to the wiki, and spelling out the exact statistical reasoning why town lynch = bad, at some point I became pretty damn certain. Truth be told, I was always certain, so I'm really questioning your original diagnosis.