Mini 527 - Doom in Valencia - Game Over!

[Javert]

I am actually prone to voting MBF at this point; the votes on Arakorn from Day One (specifically MeMe's push at the end of Day One) is enough for me to list him as neutral. I

would

, however, like Arakorn to talk more; he has not made an impact me either in terms of towniness or scumminess that I can recall.

I will list out my reasons for wanting to vote MBF later, and if at that time I still believe the case against him looks legitimate (since sometimes my feelings change after an in-depth reread), that is where my vote will go.

Note to soupfly: I would not use the 'rocket of death' on somebody unless you are willing to Vig them. Given that both Tarhalindur and neko2086 can confirm your night-choices, and I find the plausibility of a Scum Inventor very slim (especially after we have seen one dead 'mafia goon'), I am thinking you are very likely to be town.

Vote count;

Arakorn (1) Gorckat

Not voting; Everyone else

[neko2086]

In soupfly's defense, Jenter, you never really set out any official game rules. Of course, it is generally understood that posting PMs is a no-no, but I don't think it's a hard and fast site-wide rule. Also, he didn't put it in a quote box, if that counts for anything...

[gorckat]

Once MeMe came up scum, I hadn't wasted any time on it, neko. I think you're the "nk", but no idea what the "S" means. I'm guessing the "M" was for Mason, which is rather obvious, since he claimed it.

I didn't remember MeMe pushing for Arakorn, but she could done so in the hopes of saving the godfather and buying some bonus distancing points.

[Gorgon]

Well, soupfly's claim seems solid enough, PM posting aside.

I must note, though, that there's still the slight possibility that Tar is mafia. If he is, he's most likely the sole remaining member, and thus would have been forced to carry out the nightkill. In this scenario, the lack of an NK is explained by the fact that Tar was blocked, rather than him having been protected. However, I find this unlikely, especially since this means that Tar essentially sacrificed MeMe yesterday.

Arakorn remains a suspect in my book, although mike is there as well. His 'nice' comment at the beginning of today is classic 'scum trying to look town', although it must be noted that I've seen town do something like this as well (and done so myself as town).

Others are possibilies as well. The only people I see as very probably town right now are Tar, soupfly, and neko. Thankfully we have lots of leeway in our lynches - especially since there doesn't seem to be an SK in this game.

[Arakorn]

mikeburnfire and Arakorn, by a quick skim, are at the top of my list. Srakorn was really worried about MeMe's self-vote counting, and mike didn't make any case on Tar before flipping on MeMe.

I like a

vote: Arakorn

right now.

I wouldn't say that I was "really worried", I just wanted to be sure that it was a real lynch, I've been involved in one game where 7 votes were needed for a lynch and then we thought we reached seven, but we had only 6 (I knew about this, but couldn't post before it). After having read about the 7th vote claim the target then started "crying", and everyone unvoted because they thought that if he was scum and had gotten the necessary votes, he would have admitted.

Don't remember if that guy turned out to be scum in the end, but I feel he had a special role...

Anyway, that's not the point, my point is that I just wanted to ensure that the necessary votes have been collected, and my previous experience says that self votes are not allowed.

BTW, I believe Soupfly.

[soupfly]

well, i'll be quiet until jenter renders a decision on my play today.

[mikeburnfire]

BTW, did anyone figure this stuff out?

MeMe was about to die, and I never take the words of a scum on her deathbed too seriously. It's more than likely just a worthless puzzle to confuse the town.

And I agree with neko that it's not right for the mod to threaten to kill soupfly when he didn't even lay out any rules against PM posting.

I must note, though, that there's still the slight possibility that Tar is mafia. If he is, he's most likely the sole remaining member, and thus would have been forced to carry out the nightkill. In this scenario, the lack of an NK is explained by the fact that Tar was blocked, rather than him having been protected. However, I find this unlikely, especially since this means that Tar essentially sacrificed MeMe yesterday.

I find it unlikely too, though I would note that MeMe's attempt to stop her own lynch wasn't very thorough. Her self-vote near the end is normally categorized as bad play, and I can't help but think she had a reason for it. A gambit like this, while a horrible idea, could explain it. I find it much more likely that Tar was the nightkill who was protected by the bus trip.

The only people I see as very probably town right now are Tar, soupfly, and neko.

I agree with this sentence. I sincerely doubt that Tar, Fly, or Neko are scum. Fly, you should just keep playing.If you are killed then so be it, but until then you can still provide your own insights.

It looks like a lot of people are suspecting me. I don't know why. The only things that I've done so far are vote Tarhalindur (pre-claim), confuse this game with a different game I'm in, vote MeMe (post cop claim), and try to find out why Tarhalindur believes four unnamed players are clean. There's nothing damning in there, though I concede nothing daftly pro-town, either.

I, like Napoleon over there, will need to read the game completely to determine where my suspicions lie.

[Tarhalindur]

Current player reads:

Definitely town: Tarhalindur (DUH!)
Almost certainly pro-town: Soupfly (all-but-cleared by claim and neko)
Strong town read: Arakorn (pro-town play + MeMe attack D1), Pra (I still can't see Sammich's play as coming from scum, and he replaced Sammich), Gorckat (leading role on DR lynch)
Town read: Neko (decent play + role in DR lynch), Javert (can't really see Archaist as scum with DR/MeMe)
Scum read: Gorgon (amazingly under-the-radar, was on the Arakorn wagon with MeMe, is still trying to cast suspicion on me despite me claiming a role that has caught scum and is INSTANTLY confirmable)
Strong scum read: Mikeburnfire (SirWario's play looks especially scummy, seems to be tied to MeMe and Sikario - look at his posts, MeMe and Sikario were practically the only two players he responded to

and Sikario explicitly asked for a prod on him

, SirWario as scum makes the Guardian kill make even more sense, attacked me for attacking MeMe)

My mason partner (who I would still prefer to leave unnamed, but note that I have breadcrumbed in a fashion) is one of the players who I am claiming to have a strong town read on.

I'm willing to lynch Gorgon today if necessary (and I want to lynch Gorgon tomorrow if MBF is actually town), but I'm pretty sure that MBF is the correct lynch for today.

Vote: Mikeburnfire

[mikeburnfire]

If SirWario's actions and interactions are what you find the most suspicious about me, then I can't fix that.

I may very well be the lynch for today. It could be inevitable. Regardless, I'm going to go back and give my predictions for the last scum.

[gorckat]

In my quick skim of various parts of the game at lunch I thought Gorgon might be scum as well.

In addition to the aforementioned Arakorn pushings, there was the way sikario used the smilies when random voting deathguise. It seemed a little chummy.

unvote

till I decide which way to run.

[Arakorn]

I still don't understand how me checking the rules is scummy? I mean if she already confessed, why - if I were scum - would I try to keep defending her???

[Jenter Brolincani]

I'm still thinking about modkilling, it WAS my fault for not posting rules and I aplogise but I may need to modkill to stop people posting or pretending to post PMs in future...

I'm sorry guys, in other words.

[neko2086]

You can modkill... or... you can post rules saying that anyone else posting pms in the future will be modkilled

Also, what's up with Pra?

And soupfly, I think you ought to share your thoughts as long as your still alive.

I need to do more rereading, then I'll be able to contribute something relevant.

[Jenter Brolincani]

After consideration and talk with people outside the game, I declare that suop will not die by modkill.

Obviuosly in future real or fake PM posting will result in death.

[Tarhalindur]

Okay, I think I know how this should go down.

We lynch MBF today. Soupfly uses Rocket of Death on Gorgon tonight (I'd be surprised if the rocket isn't a 1-shot vig), while I investigate one of the players I have a town read on (probably Javert). Second mason (and just so everybody is clear, there are exactly 2 masons - after watching how the Replicators won SG-1, I'm going to make damn sure that scum don't get to claim third mason FTW) claims tomorrow should he/she survive the night (pointing out my funky breadcrumb for confirmation) and I reveal my result should I survive the night.

Even in the worst-case-scenario (MBF + Gorgon town, I get killed tonight), we enter D4 with 6 alive, of which 2 are all-but-cleared (mason partner + soupfly) and two more are very likely to be town (gorckat, who came down heavily on sikario, and neko, who was also on the sikario wagon, seemed to play very pro-town concerning me yesterday, and seems to have been investigated town by Soupfly). That leaves Javert and one of {Arakorn, Pra} as the best options for lynch - lynch Javert D4 and whichever one of {Pra, Arakorn} isn't cleared by mason claim gets lynched D5, which should lead to a town win (unless one of Gorckat and Neko is playing an incredibly good game as scum).

If Soupfly's rocket turns out to be something besides a vig, then we make up for it by lynching Gorgon tomorrow and proceeding with the plan as intended (mason still claims tomorrow, and I still reveal my result if possible).

Anyone see any gaping flaws with the plan which I'm being blind about?

[mikeburnfire]

I can't say that I advocate my own lynch, but I also wouldn't be too dismayed by it either, since I only recently replaced into this game.

[gorckat]

Here's Tar's plan broken out with a full town list:

Code: Select all

mikeburnfire: lynch
Gorgon: rocket o' doom by soup

Javert: investigate by Tar
Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien
Arakorn

soupfly
Tarhalindur
neko2086
gorckat

I like lynching Gorgon first and offing mbf at night, but really, either way we proceed the same if neither one is scum.

[Javert]

If it turns out to be the case that neither MBF nor Gorgon are scum,

and

Tarhalindur dies overnight so that he cannot confirm me as an innocent, I am afraid I will not be able to acquiesce with being lynched tomorrow. I have

never

been lynched while I am pro-town, and I don't mean for it to happen in this game either.

It seems incredibly unwise to simply discount two unconfirmed players from even

possibly

being lynched for the entire duration of a game based on a relatively short two game days of playing: there is no reason the town should be so willing to risk throwing the game when it is difficult to imagine a better position to be in.

I am not

so

confident that neko2086 and gorckat are town that I am willing to risk losing the game based on the possibility of being wrong.

Additionally, I am not even so sure that Gorgon is as 'scummy' as many of you are trying to portray; reading his posts, he seems to share some of the same worries I also had concerning Tarhlindur's initial claim (although I clearly find no reason to fault it at this point in time).

I will point out that the town does not 'gain' a lynch by using the 'rocket of doom' tonight; right now, there are four lynches available to us (assuming singular nightkills). This plan allows for three lynches and a vig kill. Both scenarios result in the town deciding four deaths.

Given that, it might be wiser to see if soupfly can use one of his

other

inventions to gain more

information

instead of doing something the town can already do (kill a player via lynch).

[Tarhalindur]

First: After reviewing the events at the end of yesterday, one thing stood out - as it turns out, I misread the vote count, and neko, not Gorckat, was the leader on the Sikario lynch. This elevates neko to "all-but-confirmed town" in my eyes, and drops Gorckat down to "likely town" along with whichever one of Pra and Arakorn I'm not lying about due to mason-ness.

Now: To follow up on my original plan, I think I found something that should remove the last vulnerability in the plan.

In addition to his Rocket of Death, Soupfly has claimed a horn-like object. I (like Soupfly himself) think that this item is likely a roleblock. If this is, in fact, the case, then we are all-but-guaranteed a town win, because in the current situation a roleblock is as good as an investigation.

Assume that we lynch MBF as town, Soupfly successfully vigs Gorgon as town, and I am NK'ed as town (obviously). Town lynches Javert as town, and then Soupfly uses his third ability to attempt to attempt to roleblock whichever one of {Pra, Arakorn} is not the second mason.

If the third item works as expected and there is a kill, then a town win is guaranteed because Soupfly's target is confirmed town (since said target couldn't have made the mafia kill), leaving 3 out of 4 players all-but-confirmed (assuming that Soupfly is killed N4, then my mason partner, Soupfly's N3 target, and neko) and we lynch scum FTW. (D3 lynch MBF, N3 Tar mafia killed, N3 Gorgon vigged, D4 mason claims (clearing another player), D4 Javert lynched, N4 {Pra, Arakorn} RB'ed, N4 Soupfly mafia killed, D5 lynch Gorckat ftw (Arakorn, Pra, neko clear) - note that this scenario

assumes

optimal play by the scum)

If there is no NK on N4, then town enters D5 with 5 alive (Arakorn, Pra, Soupfly, neko, gorckat). Lynch whichever of {Arakorn, Pra} was RB'ed; if that fails, lynch Gorckat ftw.

If Soupfly is killed tonight instead of me and I get another innocent, then we have 4 of 6 living players all-but-confirmed town (me, Javert, neko, mason partner) and win the game in 2 lynches.

Of course, if one of {MBF, Gorgon, Javert} is the last scum, then the game ends early with a town victory.

If we are correct in believing that Soupfly's noise maker is a roleblock, then the only way that the Mafia have any chance of winning is if one of Gorckat, Pra, or Arakorn is a Mafia Roleblocker (and even then we have a 50% chance of winning based on random chance alone) or if we are dealing with a second mafia (unlikely given known information). If Soupfly's third ability does not RB and we reach LyLo, then we have a 50% chance of winning even if we flip a coin (neko + mason partner clear, Gorckat and one of {Pra, Arakorn} uncleared - and even in the worst case scenario [Soupfly inadvertently motivates scum] we have a 3 player endgame with 1 player cleared)

Acceptable changes to the plan: lynching Gorgon today and killing MBF tonight, placing Gorckat ahead of {Pra, Arakorn} in the lynch order (and therefore having Soupfly block Gorckat N4).

[Tarhalindur]

EBWOP: Wait, two more considerations (one is a pretty big flaw... oops)

1) If the trumpet-like object is not a RB and it hits scum, then scum can skate through to endgame on the night result. Has to be factored into consideration.

2) Mafia Strongman could screw this up royally, too.

2) Using the trumpet-like object tonight (for a virtual double investigation) may be the better play (it should nullify a Mafia Roleblocker, come to think of it). Soupfly block Gorgon, I investigate Javert (or vice versa), vig a player N4 if no better action is available?

Need some time to think through things thoroughly.

[soupfly]

i think the trumpet like thing is a protection.

i think the bus was the role block.

its clear that tar was protected and roleblocked on N2. i know i used the bus on tar and then the mod told tar that i was responsible for the roleblock. this means that the bus was also protection (in addition to the roleblock) or someone else protected tar.

i think its likely that there's a doc out there who protected you tar.

[Javert]

Please let's not speculate about the existence / non-existence of Doctors.

I think I am going to throw out a slightly different suggestion. Although I

do

agree soupfly should try to gain information if possible (as I noted above), I am not sure it is wise to publicize all the night actions. Publicizing night actions only means that the scum can with 100% accuracy decide on what strategy will best suit their interests; if we keep it hidden who Tarhalindur investigates, as well as who soupfly uses his ability (whatever ability he chooses) on, then the town loses little to nothing.

The only possible "loss" with this plan is if soupfly is killed and we have no way of discerning who he targeted. However, we

do

know that his previous two night choices were made very clear to the people being targeted, so I imagine the same will be true of his other inventions as well - so I am inclined to think that "losing information" with this set-up is nearly impossible. Even if we

did

lose exactly what soupfly's action was, in that situation Tarhalindur would still be alive

and

have an investigation to use, which still results in more information than we would otherwise receive by publicizing night actions.

[soupfly]

known townies:

tar
soupfly
neko

possible scum

Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien
Gorgon
Javert
gorckat
mikeburnfire
Arakorn

of these possible scum one of them is tar's mason buddy (though i don't care to specify which).

the important thing at the moment is for tar to be kept alive and for us to not target his mason partner. for this to happen i believe that we should let tar pick the lynch for today so that we don't accidentally go after his mason partner which would needlessly cause him to claim. also tar has a 1/5 chance of lynching scum whereas the rest of us have a 1/6 because we don't know who his mason buddy is.

over night tar should choose his own target. i will use my trumpet thing on him as i believe that is an alarm/security system which will protect him. if there is another doc then they'll have to decide whether to use it on me or tar considering that the trumpet may not work like i'm anticipating and may not protect tar.

in any case i think we should agree to let tar decide today's lynch.

[soupfly]

i recommend you consider lynching Pra a Funkee Homo Sapien who has hardly posted and is just lurking.

[Gorgon]

Well, I admit that I forgot that of course Tar's partner can back him up whenever he feels like it, and in a regular mini, it's unlikely that masons aren't confirmed townies.

Also, there's most likely only one scum left. If that's Tar, falsely claiming mason with no backup would be very stupid.

So, Tar's not the remaining scum. There's almost no way that's possible. I admit that.

However, the mason-cop thing still bothers me. It sounds extremely powerful. We have this, an inventor ... while the mafia have a goon, a godfather, and probably one more member with unkown powers. It all sounds pretty unbalanced.

Anyway, I agree with soupfly that we're better of with letting Tar decide today's lynch. Also, I have some reservations about a mike lynch, but I can't say I'm dead set against it.