Mini 523 - Game Over!

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Vote Count

Thanatos (1) - Nudude
Nudude (1) - Thanatos
liamcool (1) - Gorgon

Not Voting (4) - Dark_Lady_Shaiann, liamcool, Infinitive, CoolBot

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Well...let's think about this...from Gorgon's perspective...

DLS isn't scum
Charter/CoolBot isn't scum
Infinitive is not scum/undecided
Nudude is not scum/undecided
Than is Vig/SK
Liam is scum


So...there are only 2 people Gorgon can really choose from for Liam's buddy: Infinitive and Nudude, considering he is undecided on them. Unless he panics and decides to change his mind at the last moment and drag Coolbot or myself back into his scum list like Nudude did with me.

Hopefully Coolbot can give us a new perspective on what is going on. I really can't wait for what he comes up with

[CoolBot]

Well, I think Nudude is almost certainly scum. Coming after Thanatos like that reeks of desperate scum trying to get rid of the vig. For his sacrifice to work, that means the town would have to lynch him after Thanatos (and most likely, one more townie) is dead. At that point, scum would have a strong advantage, and it would be idiocy to lynch Nudude simply because he was wrong about Thanatos. Therefore, his sacrifice is pretty much unenforceable, and he probably knows this.

Further, Nudude suggested there's a Nurse or Thanatos targeted the God Father. Neither of these make any sense. The Nurse would've protected DL, not Nudude. And God Father's are not generally immune to SK's. In fact, I don't think I ever heard of that. It looks like he's just shooting random theories out just hoping one sticks. Oddly, the one he doesn't shoot out is that Thanatos targeted DL. This makes sense with Nu as mafia, though, since he'd probably be fixated on the fact he targeted DL.

Finally, whenever someone makes a case against Nu, he does not defend himself except by demand further "investigations." He certainly doesn't address the scumminess of his play.

I want a claim from him.

vote: Nudude

[Nudude]

I have to give it to you coolbot, those are some good points. I've had a bit of a hard time trying to figure out what DLS is hanging on to, but your points make sense.

In regards to Thanatos, if he is the vig, it is likely that he is the last power role left, and if I was scum and there was a scum RB, I could RB him every night, so there wouldn't be any need for me to stick my neck out and accuse him of lying, and in fact it would be foolish of me to do so. It would have been better to have just kept quiet and let the town stew over the "What if's" than draw attention to myself, and in fact I thought that the RB would have been better used to block VL and have instead just NK Thanatos and removed his, at the time, "Mystery role", with his suspicion levels he would have almost certainly been lynched.

I don't believe he was trying to save VL with his claim, if he had really wanted to sacrifice himself, it probably would have been better to say he was a vig. "I'm a vig" gets far more attention than "I'm going to role - claim tomorrow". Scum may have considered letting VL survive the night, knowing that people were very suspicios of him already. I think he was just trying to give his role - block story plausability.

Thanatos's claim sounds to me to be false, so I stood up and told everyone why I thought so, and defended my logic. Why would I draw the completely unneccesary attention to myself? I've advocated slow, considered play this whole game, don't mix up me pushing the "Thanatos is scum" bandwagon for the "Hurry up and lynch someone" bandwagon, bearing in mind there were some people on that yesterday, which included DS, Infinitive and Thanatos.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Godfather is where I got my info from, and though not always, they can be immune to NK's. The only way to be certain is if you got the rolecard. You quite right about the nurse though, they would have almost certainly protected VL. I'm just considering that if Thanatos is the SK or a mafia assassin, then there may be another power role to offset that. Bear in mind the reason I think it failed wasn't because of an intervention, I feel it's either Thanatos only gets one bonus NK this game because of his scum role, or because he's an SK who skipped it. I'm leaning to him being mafia though, because SK doesn't make alot of sense.

I have made a few posts in my defense, well specifically in defence of my logic, but I feel I present my case to DLS, and she didn't accept it. That's her perogative of course, but I feel I did my best to explain myself.

I feel it is fair to say that Thanatos hammered DS, and you could ask why a scum would have hammered his buddy. Just bear in mind it has happened plenty of times before, either to distance, plain impatience, or if Thanatos was afraid of what might come out of DS's mouth if given the chance.

I've pushed that Thanatos is scum hard, because I feel certain he is. He killed a guy who had made four posts in the game, who had replaced in for just a little over 24 hours, while ignoring two more likely suspects, because, I think, it's in an scum's best interest to leave suspicious people in play.

In retrospect, saying I would vote for myself tomorrow may have been a little hasty. I was trying to show people how confident I am he is scum, so confident I am right that I didn't consider the possibility of being wrong, but on the off chance I am there would be a good chance of LYLO.

So instead I will offer this. I will go to the noose today, thus proving my innocence if

everyone

agrees to lynch Thanatos next. Don't let him open his mouth or try to justify himself, just lynch him.

Bear in mind, I offer this, and the reason I made my previous offer, because I am so very, very certain Thanatos is scum. I don't know what else I can do to prove it if the evidence I've presented so far isn't good enough for everyone.

Once I'm lynched, it will become clear that Thanatos's claim is false, but everyone has to be on board for this. I don't want to get lynched today just to see him wriggle out of it D3.

[Infinitive]

Before I get started, welcome to the game, Coolbot. Sounds like you're fairly experienced; we'll have to see how well you fill Charter's shoes. So far, at least, I'm liking what I'm hearing.

I have to give it to you coolbot, those are some good points. I've had a bit of a hard time trying to figure out what DLS is hanging on to, but your points make sense.

In regards to Thanatos, if he is the vig, it is likely that he is the last power role left, and

if I was scum and there was a scum RB, I could RB him every night

, so there wouldn't be any need for me to stick my neck out and accuse him of lying, and in fact it would be foolish of me to do so.

GOTCHA!

Bolded emphasis mine, of course. I'd like you all to read the bolded section carefully; I think that Nudude made a Freudian slip here- he says "If I was scum and there was a scum RB (note that he deliberately distances himself from the RB part of the hypothesis here), I could RB him every night (and here he makes the opposite jump of claiming that if he were scum he would be the RB)." I think Nudude slipped up here and, despite his best efforts at distancing himself from the RB suspicion that I've been leveling at him, accidentally gives away the fact that he is, in fact, the scum RBer.

It would have been better to have just kept quiet and let the town stew over the "What if's" than draw attention to myself, and in fact I thought that the RB would have been better used to block VL and have instead just NK Thanatos and removed his, at the time, "Mystery role", with his suspicion levels he would have almost certainly been lynched.

This is poor logic. The cop is always, always, always the scum's first priority, no matter what. A jumpy vig can do more harm than good, especially if the scum are articulate. There is never a downside for a cop investigation, ever.

I don't believe he was trying to save VL with his claim, if he had really wanted to sacrifice himself, it probably would have been better to say he was a vig. "I'm a vig" gets far more attention than "I'm going to role - claim tomorrow". Scum may have considered letting VL survive the night, knowing that people were very suspicios of him already. I think he was just trying to give his role - block story plausability.

See above paragraph re: logic on cop vs. vig. The only thing I have to add here is that vig is the most likely claim in our position, given the game's composition thusfar; anything more powerful/unusual would, I believe, have sparked a more aggressive scum spread which, given DS' generig thug role, seems unlikely.

Thanatos's claim sounds to me to be false, so I stood up and told everyone why I thought so, and defended my logic. Why would I draw the completely unnecessary attention to myself? I've advocated slow, considered play this whole game, don't mix up me pushing the "Thanatos is scum" bandwagon for the "Hurry up and lynch someone" bandwagon, bearing in mind there were some people on that yesterday, which included DS, Infinitive and Thanatos.

Fair point here, though I'd like to point out that, for my part at least, I think I addressed this one already yesterday. Until DS voted, nothing new had happened for something like two weeks; at the very least a lynch would have given us information, which it did. Still, it turned out all right.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Godfather is where I got my info from, and though not always, they can be immune to NK's. The only way to be certain is if you got the rolecard. You quite right about the nurse though, they would have almost certainly protected VL. I'm just considering that if Thanatos is the SK or a mafia assassin, then there may be another power role to offset that. Bear in mind the reason I think it failed wasn't because of an intervention, I feel it's either Thanatos only gets one bonus NK this game because of his scum role, or because he's an SK who skipped it. I'm leaning to him being mafia though, because SK doesn't make alot of sense.

How so does SK make little sense, Nudude? Pardon my presumption, but you've said this a few times, but I don't recall you giving any particular reason why. SK makes sense to me for a pretty simple strat: given the events in day 2, Than is seriously staring a noose in the face. Almost immediately, he claims vig, knowing that if there's an actual vig (which is incredibly unlikely at this point), the correct response for that vig is to NK him for the false claim and that,

even absent that

, the scum will toast him to get control of the game and to prevent any random chance killings on their side, which can unceremoniously end the game.

What Than gains by falseclaiming Vig (if he's SK) is one last chance at a NK, now that he knows there's a RBer.

And if he's

actually

a vig? Then he's kept the town off of a non-scum player for the day. If he's

scum,

then he pretty much certainly gets lynched tomorrow for surviving the night. In all seriousness, Nudude, this is a win/win/win scenario- the town leaves alone someone who ought to be left alone, the scum get to kill the last non-scum power role, and the town narrows their focus on who may or may not be scum.

I have made a few posts in my defense, well specifically in defence of my logic, but I feel I present my case to DLS, and she didn't accept it. That's her perogative of course, but I feel I did my best to explain myself.

I feel it is fair to say that Thanatos hammered DS, and you could ask why a scum would have hammered his buddy. Just bear in mind it has happened plenty of times before, either to distance, plain impatience, or if Thanatos was afraid of what might come out of DS's mouth if given the chance.

A fair analysis of why Than might have hammered DS if Than were scum. In the greater context of what's going on here, however, I feel that this is rather less than likely.

I've pushed that Thanatos is scum hard, because I feel certain he is. He killed a guy who had made four posts in the game, who had replaced in for just a little over 24 hours, while ignoring two more likely suspects, because, I think, it's in an scum's best interest to leave suspicious people in play.

In retrospect, saying I would vote for myself tomorrow may have been a little hasty. I was trying to show people how confident I am he is scum, so confident I am right that I didn't consider the possibility of being wrong, but on the off chance I am there would be a good chance of LYLO.

So instead I will offer this. I will go to the noose today, thus proving my innocence if

everyone

agrees to lynch Thanatos next. Don't let him open his mouth or try to justify himself, just lynch him.

Bear in mind, I offer this, and the reason I made my previous offer, because I am so very, very certain Thanatos is scum. I don't know what else I can do to prove it if the evidence I've presented so far isn't good enough for everyone.

Once I'm lynched, it will become clear that Thanatos's claim is false, but everyone has to be on board for this. I don't want to get lynched today just to see him wriggle out of it D3.

This last section seems to me to be just more of the same, only Nudude is now using the logic that the town has previously presented to refute his self-sacrificial plans in reverse. Rather than saying "I'll vote myself tomorrow if I'm wrong," which is an obviously bad plan, he's saying "I'm so certain of my convictions that I'll cheerfully meet the hangman today," knowing the town's reluctance to have people participate in their own lynches.

Nudude, your day 3 has been marked by a series of terrible logical disconnects that were entirely absent earlier in the game, before you came under investigation. I'm not a big fan of dropping a vote yet, given how early it is in day 3, but I'm not seeing any other compelling options right now.

[Nudude]

Before I get started, welcome to the game, Coolbot. Sounds like you're fairly experienced; we'll have to see how well you fill Charter's shoes. So far, at least, I'm liking what I'm hearing.

I have to give it to you coolbot, those are some good points. I've had a bit of a hard time trying to figure out what DLS is hanging on to, but your points make sense.

In regards to Thanatos, if he is the vig, it is likely that he is the last power role left, and

if I was scum and there was a scum RB, I could RB him every night

, so there wouldn't be any need for me to stick my neck out and accuse him of lying, and in fact it would be foolish of me to do so.

GOTCHA!

Bolded emphasis mine, of course. I'd like you all to read the bolded section carefully; I think that Nudude made a Freudian slip here- he says "If I was scum and there was a scum RB (note that he deliberately distances himself from the RB part of the hypothesis here), I could RB him every night (and here he makes the opposite jump of claiming that if he were scum he would be the RB)." I think Nudude slipped up here and, despite his best efforts at distancing himself from the RB suspicion that I've been leveling at him, accidentally gives away the fact that he is, in fact, the scum RBer.

You make some fair points in your post Infinitve, but this isn't one of them. Presenting a hypothetical does not make me scum, but using it as a point against me may be.

It would have been better to have just kept quiet and let the town stew over the "What if's" than draw attention to myself, and in fact I thought that the RB would have been better used to block VL and have instead just NK Thanatos and removed his, at the time, "Mystery role", with his suspicion levels he would have almost certainly been lynched.

This is poor logic. The cop is always, always, always the scum's first priority, no matter what. A jumpy vig can do more harm than good, especially if the scum are articulate. There is never a downside for a cop investigation, ever.

A cop is scum's first priority, but a RB cop is essentialy a townie. The scum may have come to the conclusion Than is a vig based on the N1 kill. Seeing as how they were allegedly planning on blocking him anyway, I doubt they considered the "jumpy vig" factor. They have allegedy denied him the ability to be a vig, and in doing so advertised the fact there may be a RB in play, when blocking VL would have most likely bought them another day at least while we accused VL of lying. This is scraping in WIFOM, but it seems a very poor scum play. Possible, of course, but it just seems a silly thing to do.

Than killed a guy who had been in the game a little over 24 hours. Doesn't that seem a little strange to you? Than said he was going to NK me. Of all the people yesterday, I was the best guess? I can appreciate people being suspicious, but do my actions yesterday make me the scummiest player in the game? There are too many stretches required for Than to be the Vig, and I don't think he's the SK, simply because it doesn't make sense for him to make a play like this. I admit I thought he was an SK at the start of the day, but as the hypotheticals were explored, I conceded it didn't make much sense. Him being a one - shot mafia makes sense though.

I don't believe he was trying to save VL with his claim, if he had really wanted to sacrifice himself, it probably would have been better to say he was a vig. "I'm a vig" gets far more attention than "I'm going to role - claim tomorrow". Scum may have considered letting VL survive the night, knowing that people were very suspicios of him already. I think he was just trying to give his role - block story plausability.

See above paragraph re: logic on cop vs. vig. The only thing I have to add here is that vig is the most likely claim in our position, given the game's composition thusfar; anything more powerful/unusual would, I believe, have sparked a more aggressive scum spread which, given DS' generig thug role, seems unlikely.

This is a fair point. A role blocker may be included in a game to offset the advantage of a vig. It is also just as likely there is another power role of some kind in the game to off - set the mafia's one - shot kill ability, and I have written off this possibility. I've pointed out why I don't think the pieces fit for Than to be a vig.

Thanatos's claim sounds to me to be false, so I stood up and told everyone why I thought so, and defended my logic. Why would I draw the completely unnecessary attention to myself? I've advocated slow, considered play this whole game, don't mix up me pushing the "Thanatos is scum" bandwagon for the "Hurry up and lynch someone" bandwagon, bearing in mind there were some people on that yesterday, which included DS, Infinitive and Thanatos.

Fair point here, though I'd like to point out that, for my part at least, I think I addressed this one already yesterday. Until DS voted, nothing new had happened for something like two weeks; at the very least a lynch would have given us information, which it did. Still, it turned out all right.

Actually I remember D1 when you made what you thought was a hammer vote, and when you explained your mistake it was Thanatos that stepped up and said basically "It's ok, don't worry about it, lets not worry about it and move on". Post 319 to post 324. You've always been keen to end the day.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Godfather is where I got my info from, and though not always, they can be immune to NK's. The only way to be certain is if you got the rolecard. You quite right about the nurse though, they would have almost certainly protected VL. I'm just considering that if Thanatos is the SK or a mafia assassin, then there may be another power role to offset that. Bear in mind the reason I think it failed wasn't because of an intervention, I feel it's either Thanatos only gets one bonus NK this game because of his scum role, or because he's an SK who skipped it. I'm leaning to him being mafia though, because SK doesn't make alot of sense.

How so does SK make little sense, Nudude? Pardon my presumption, but you've said this a few times, but I don't recall you giving any particular reason why. SK makes sense to me for a pretty simple strat: given the events in day 2, Than is seriously staring a noose in the face. Almost immediately, he claims vig, knowing that if there's an actual vig (which is incredibly unlikely at this point), the correct response for that vig is to NK him for the false claim and that,

even absent that

, the scum will toast him to get control of the game and to prevent any random chance killings on their side, which can unceremoniously end the game.

What Than gains by falseclaiming Vig (if he's SK) is one last chance at a NK, now that he knows there's a RBer.

And if he's

actually

a vig? Then he's kept the town off of a non-scum player for the day. If he's

scum,

then he pretty much certainly gets lynched tomorrow for surviving the night. In all seriousness, Nudude, this is a win/win/win scenario- the town leaves alone someone who ought to be left alone, the scum get to kill the last non-scum power role, and the town narrows their focus on who may or may not be scum.

That makes sense, but there are alot of "What if's" in there. You readily accepted his claim earlier today, perhaps on reflection, we can't be so sure if his claim is true?

I have made a few posts in my defense, well specifically in defence of my logic, but I feel I present my case to DLS, and she didn't accept it. That's her perogative of course, but I feel I did my best to explain myself.

I feel it is fair to say that Thanatos hammered DS, and you could ask why a scum would have hammered his buddy. Just bear in mind it has happened plenty of times before, either to distance, plain impatience, or if Thanatos was afraid of what might come out of DS's mouth if given the chance.

A fair analysis of why Than might have hammered DS if Than were scum. In the greater context of what's going on here, however, I feel that this is rather less than likely.

That's also true, just pointing out the possibilites.

I've pushed that Thanatos is scum hard, because I feel certain he is. He killed a guy who had made four posts in the game, who had replaced in for just a little over 24 hours, while ignoring two more likely suspects, because, I think, it's in an scum's best interest to leave suspicious people in play.

In retrospect, saying I would vote for myself tomorrow may have been a little hasty. I was trying to show people how confident I am he is scum, so confident I am right that I didn't consider the possibility of being wrong, but on the off chance I am there would be a good chance of LYLO.

So instead I will offer this. I will go to the noose today, thus proving my innocence if

everyone

agrees to lynch Thanatos next. Don't let him open his mouth or try to justify himself, just lynch him.

Bear in mind, I offer this, and the reason I made my previous offer, because I am so very, very certain Thanatos is scum. I don't know what else I can do to prove it if the evidence I've presented so far isn't good enough for everyone.

Once I'm lynched, it will become clear that Thanatos's claim is false, but everyone has to be on board for this. I don't want to get lynched today just to see him wriggle out of it D3.

This last section seems to me to be just more of the same, only Nudude is now using the logic that the town has previously presented to refute his self-sacrificial plans in reverse. Rather than saying "I'll vote myself tomorrow if I'm wrong," which is an obviously bad plan, he's saying "I'm so certain of my convictions that I'll cheerfully meet the hangman today," knowing the town's reluctance to have people participate in their own lynches.

Nudude, your day 3 has been marked by a series of terrible logical disconnects that were entirely absent earlier in the game, before you came under investigation. I'm not a big fan of dropping a vote yet, given how early it is in day 3, but I'm not seeing any other compelling options right now.

As I said, I feel I've presented a strong case against Than, and the town seems to have reservations about it. We're getting to the point where either I'm scum trying to off the last power role (even though if I was scum I wouldn't really need to make such a noise about it since he's pretty much a townie while being allegedly role blocked) or Thanatos is scum. I believe very, very strongly Than is scum, but I can't think of anything more to add to the case. This way, the town can be certain they get scum no matter what.

[Thanatos]

What really strikes me is Nudude's Unwillingness to consider that I'm an SK. There's nothing I can do to disprove it. My actions and abilities as an SK are the same as a vig. It's simply a matter of trust. If we kill 3 scum, and the game isn't over, I suspect that I will be in big trouble.

Why, then, in the face of the most likely possibility, as said by now 4 people (Me, coolbot, Infinitive, and DLS) where I am a scum, does Nudude discount it?

One reason, at least, makes sense. If I'm an SK, I'm a potential asset in the short run. As Nudude helped me prove, killing me, regardless, puts the town in Lylo.

So tell me, Nudude, why can't I be an SK? And what was with that Slip up, anyways?

[Thanatos]

I've given my reason for insurgent.

And you of all people should know, yes, you were, are, and will be in the future, the best guess I have for a vig kill. If you weren't, why would I go out of my way to say so, regardless of Alignment. That's hardly an argument in your favor. You should know better.

And infinitive had a point. You just referred to yourself as the RB, where the hypothetical you were just teamed up with one. I don't build cases on Freudian slips, but that's a bad one.

So, once more, give me a reason why I can't be an SK.


And mod, please answer my previous question.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

If I remember correctly, Nudude wouldn't shut up about Than being the SK vs the Vig. When and why did that change all of a sudden?

[Nudude]

It's not impossible that Than is an SK, but I feel it would be a silly play for him to make if he was an SK. The scum now know exactly who is the other party that get's NK's, and there is no way they're going to let him make it to end - game, so for an SK to do that is to essentially making his own chances of winning extremely slim. I also hadn't considered that someone who gets a bonus NK may be mafia aligned, and when I learned about it and weighed them up, it makes more sense for a mafia aligned player to make this play, knowing that he's not going to get NK'ed, than an SK intentionally slimming his chances of winning.

The reason my thought's changed about him being SK, is because I'm open to information and ideas. I admit when I'm wrong, and have done so a few times this game. Just because there are some ideas I'm dead certain of and won't budge on doesn't mean I'm not open to new info. However, what I am certain of is that Thanatos is scum.

[Infinitive]

You make some fair points in your post Infinitve, but this isn't one of them. Presenting a hypothetical does not make me scum, but using it as a point against me may be.

Sure, of course not, Nudude. What I was trying to say there was that, in light of the greater case against you, this seems to be pretty direct confirmation of a theory that I'd already presented. If this were all I had against you, I'd abandon the case right now. As it is, it's just another brushstroke in the greater paining, but one that looks pretty bad to me.

A cop is scum's first priority, but a RB cop is essentialy a townie. The scum may have come to the conclusion Than is a vig based on the N1 kill. Seeing as how they were allegedly planning on blocking him anyway, I doubt they considered the "jumpy vig" factor. They have allegedy denied him the ability to be a vig, and in doing so advertised the fact there may be a RB in play, when blocking VL would have most likely bought them another day at least while we accused VL of lying. This is scraping in WIFOM, but it seems a very poor scum play. Possible, of course, but it just seems a silly thing to do.

By your own logic, Nudude, the scenerio that I outlined, where the cop is NK'd and Than is RB'd for safety sake, is the right move then? Well, to extend the logic, doesn't it make good tactical sense to NK the SK/Vig ASAP, just in case the scum RBer gets lynched during the day? This is especially relevant if, after a scum lynch, the SK/Vig and the remaining scum player target each other. In short, your logic relies on the scum RBer, the presence of which you're now conceding, remaining undetected for the rest of the game. To say the least, this strategy is foolish and shortsighted if you're a scum player

Than killed a guy who had been in the game a little over 24 hours. Doesn't that seem a little strange to you? Than said he was going to NK me. Of all the people yesterday, I was the best guess? I can appreciate people being suspicious, but do my actions yesterday make me the scummiest player in the game? There are too many stretches required for Than to be the Vig, and I don't think he's the SK, simply because it doesn't make sense for him to make a play like this. I admit I thought he was an SK at the start of the day, but as the hypotheticals were explored, I conceded it didn't make much sense. Him being a one - shot mafia makes sense though.

A "jumpy vig" shooting someone for lurking? I can kind of believe that, even if it is suspicious. More likely, I see a cautious SK, who's now nervous after leading a bad day 1 lynch, shooting someone who nobody will miss. I'm pretty sure now that Than is a SK, and he seems to be hinting that he is as well, given that he seems to expect to be NK'd tonight. Any other play strategy gets him lynched by the town today, for the same reasons we were about to lynch him yesterday. This way, he might get to use his own NK one more time, to steer the game to a victory on whichever side he prefers. That's kind of a cool position, if I do say so myself, even if he has to martyr himself to do it.

To summarize: the town is ignoring Thanatos today because he's going to die, whether or not we do anything. I, personally, see no reason to burn a lynch on someone that the scum are almost certainly going to hit anyway. If he's still kicking tomorrow, we can look at him.

Actually I remember D1 when you made what you thought was a hammer vote, and when you explained your mistake it was Thanatos that stepped up and said basically "It's ok, don't worry about it, lets not worry about it and move on". Post 319 to post 324. You've always been keen to end the day.

You're welcome to interpret my actions however you please. I explained myself then, and again on day 2. If you find those explanations satisfactory, OK. If not, OK. I've got nothing to hide from an investigation, and if one occurs, it will clear me, and then the town can chalk another person on the side of "confirmed town" and get on with the business of finding and lynching the remaining scum players.

I apologize for my confidence in this matter, if anyone finds it inappropriate, but I've been straightforward with everyone the whole game through.

That makes sense, but there are alot of "What if's" in there. You readily accepted his claim earlier today, perhaps on reflection, we can't be so sure if his claim is true?

I was running through scenarios there, Nudude, to try and demonstrate the implications what what each possible outcome would mean for the town. It's not a matter of "what if XYZ," it's a matter of planning and trying to figure out the logical course of action in the three possible scenarios that are extant in this situation.

As far as accepting a Vig claim, Nudude, I would counter that you

always

accept a Vig claim, period. If it's a false claim and there's a real Vig, the false claimer gets NKd the following night for falseclaiming by the real Vig or the SK. If not, the scum peg his arse for being a Vig. We know that there are two killing roles active right now. It's just plain stupid for a scum player to claim anything with a killing role right now.

As I said, I feel I've presented a strong case against Than, and the town seems to have reservations about it. We're getting to the point where either I'm scum trying to off the last power role (even though if I was scum I wouldn't really need to make such a noise about it since he's pretty much a townie while being allegedly role blocked) or Thanatos is scum. I believe very, very strongly Than is scum, but I can't think of anything more to add to the case. This way, the town can be certain they get scum no matter what.

This, however, is correct, Nudude. I think it's very likely that you're scum. However, even on the off chance that you're not, if Thanatos survives the night, we've got a pretty clear lynch for day 4. Even better, if a scum turns up as a NK target, we then know for a fact that Than is either SK or Vig, which further narrows the field (though it's unlikely that he'd get his shot off in this event).

You know, just as an afterthought, I suppose that it's possible that there would be a Scum Doctor instead of a Scum RBer; that would explain Than's failed NK just as easily. That's a pretty powerful role to give to scum in a 12-player game, though, so I'm not sure I'd believe it.

[Nudude]

This, however, is correct, Nudude. I think it's very likely that you're scum.

However, even on the off chance that you're not, if Thanatos survives the night, we've got a pretty clear lynch for day 4

. Even better, if a scum turns up as a NK target, we then know for a fact that Than is either SK or Vig, which further narrows the field (though it's unlikely that he'd get his shot off in this event).

I will leave it to everyone else do decide who's logic they think is most appropriate. I just want to point out that Infinitive thinks that if Thanatos is alive tomorrow, he is the clear lynch, so he should have no problems voting for and lynching him tomorrow. If the rest of you decide to go through with my plan and lynch me, make sure he follows through on it.

[Nudude]

EBWOP: The first paragrpah is a quote from infinitive.

[Thanatos]

Of course, if I am a vig/SK and the roleblocker was still around, lynching me if we miss tomorrow is death for the town. I'll defend myself to the best of my ability, if I'm alive tomorrow, but there is only one certian way to keep things in our favor. Meaning, then....we have to kill the RBer today.

[Nudude]

Not as far as me as Infinitive are concerned. If your alive tomorrow, we have a clear lynch.

[CoolBot]

We would have consider to Thanatos carefully, but lining up a lynch now is pretty stupid. It's telling scum not to target him. We'll cross that bridge when we get there. Stop trying to distract the town from you own scumminess.

In regards to Thanatos, if he is the vig, it is likely that he is the last power role left, and if I was scum and there was a scum RB, I could RB him every night, so there wouldn't be any need for me to stick my neck out and accuse him of lying, and in fact it would be foolish of me to do so.

Why are you so certain there's a scum RB? Since he hammered DS before he had a chance to claim, it'd be perfectly reasonable for a town RB to block him. If that's the case, scum can't afford to let him go.

Once I'm lynched, it will become clear that Thanatos's claim is false, but everyone has to be on board for this.

Unless you're the vig, this isn't true at all. And if you are claiming vig, say it plainly so you can't squirm out of it later.

I will go to the noose today, thus proving my innocence if everyone agrees to lynch Thanatos next.

If everyone is willing to grant you this concession just to lynch you, they'd surely be willing to lynch you without the concession. This really looks like scum doing his best look like a self-sacrificing town in hopes the bandwagon will move on. I don't buy it.

A cop is scum's first priority, but a RB cop is essentialy a townie.

So why'd the scum off VL if they have the RB? In fact, if you're so sure Thanatos is scum, what evidence is there of a RB, of any flavor, at all? Your theory doesn't make much sense, and sounds like you're working with hidden information.

It's not impossible that Than is an SK, but I feel it would be a silly play for him to make if he was an SK.

It's sillier if he's scum. Remember, there's another night killer out there. If it's a SK, he's dead. If it's a vig, he's even deader.

The reason my thought's changed about him being SK, is because I'm open to information and ideas.

Except the idea that Thanatos is who he says he is, of course. You're acting like panicking scum trying to pin anything you can on the vig. Please claim.

[Gorgon]

Let's see ...

Nudue makes a very good point regarding the fact that if Thanatos is the SK, it would be foolhardy of him to announce his vig status, as it would paint a target on his forehead - the mafia could take him out whenever they wanted to. Better then to keep them in the dark about who their rival NK'er is.

However, I fail to understand how if Thanatos survives the night, he should be lynched tomorrow. We know that if Thanatos is telling the truth, there's a roleblocker out there who probably has no better target than him (seeing that we have both a dead doc and a dead cop). Why then not just block him and kill someone else - especially if you're

setting things up beforehand

so that Thanatos should be lynched if he survives the night? This is assuming the roleblocker is a scum roleblocker ... as I'm leaning towards believing. And I'm also leaning towards, from Infinitive's find, it being Nudude. Yes, I admit that he's looking scummier and scummier today. His fixation on Thanatos is vexing, considering the fact that he's now saying that Than is not likely to be an SK. This means that in order to lynch Than, Nudude must believe that Than is scum; an unlikely scenario, in my mind.

Therefore I find this vexing about Infinitive as well; that he's saying that Than is the clear lynch tomorrow if he survives the night. In fact, Infinitive says that Than is the clear lynch

even if Nudude is lynched as town today

. However, in order for this to be a winning strategy for the town, you'd have to believe that Than is mafia. Would his survival overnight be enough to justify this belief? I find that hard to believe, especially in the scenario where a townie is lynched today, and thus the roleblocker remains alive.

Look at it this way - if a townie is lynched today, there are most likely two mafia left, and town will be at LYLO tomorrow. Why not then just take the gamble that town will believe that Than is mafia and have him lynched? Instant mafia win. If they don't buy it, they'll have to lynch one of the mafiates. If they don't, the mafia can just block Than and kill any townie, and win.

The 'lynch Than tomorrow if he survives' is therefore a dangerous line of thought, and one that I warn strongly against. Nudude and Infinitive are both suspicious for advocating this. However, Nudude is more suspect overall. His continued tunnel-visioned focus on Than is troubling - and I note that he dismisses the liamcool=GF possibility completely, even though I think I may be onto something there; something that renders pure statistics less reliable.

Current theory: liamcool and Nudude are the two remaining scum; liamcool is GF, Nudude is RB.

(Now watch as I draw suspicion for 'changing my mind' )

P.S. I'm still waiting on liam to explain what the heck he meant when he said that DLS lied D1.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

This...is an absolute mess.

I can see it....just can't explain it....

[liamcool]

P.S. I'm still waiting on liam to explain what the heck he meant when he said that DLS lied D1.

I haven't had a chance to reply to this yet - yeah, it was what DLS mentioned a page or two back, I've reread it and understand now.

The 'lynch Than tomorrow if he survives' is therefore a dangerous line of thought, and one that I warn strongly against.

I do agree with this though, we should wait for night actions, et cetera before night 3 goes off.

Guys, don't expect any in depth posting before Friday morning my time (GMT +11) - busy doing studying etc today, Dream Theater concert tomorrow, back to school on Thursday. Apologies.

[Infinitive]

Fair point, Gorgon. Okay, I'll back down: if Thanatos is still alive tomorrow, he deserves serious examination; survival may indicate a false claim. Regardless, we'll deal with that when we get to it.

[Dark_Lady_Shaiann]

Let me just go ahead and.....

Vote Nudude

FOS Gorgon

[Nudude]

Coolbot: You make good points, but I don't feel you've given me a fair assessment.

My theory is there is no RB AT ALL, that Than has just cooked up the whole story. It was Than who said that he had been RB, and I said that's bogus, for the reason that if there was a RB they most likely wouldn't have offed VL to create confusion. I don't mind you disagreeing with me, but make sure where I stand on things? Finally, when I listen to people and change my views, I'm panicked scum, but when I don't listen I'm scum? What am I supposed to do?

Infinitive just backed down from his stance on having a clear lynch tomorrow, because he's looking for anyway he can to back out of having to vote for his scum buddy.

Coolbot has been poking me for a roleclaim. Let me ask the town this, hypothetically speaking, if I was a pro - town role, regardless of what that role was, and you guys confirmed it by lynching me, would that be enough evidence to show that it is highly unlikely Than is a vig because it would be unbalancing for town?

[Numenorean7]

In answer to Thanatos's question: being killed at night does not prevent someone from making an action that night.

[CoolBot]

Nudude, you posited two scum groups, both of which have RBers:

1. Scum = 1xGF 1xRB 1xOne shot assassin.

This is a powerful mafia group, but there would probably have to be another pro - town power role to offset this. Thanatos could be the one - shot assasin, say he's a blocked vig, and if the role blocker gets lynched it will lend alot of weight to his claim.


2. Scum = 1xGF 1xGoon 1xRB.

A little less powerful, but another pro - town role would probably be justified in this setup.

Further, you seem convinced that any RB in the game is a scum RB. Why?

Let me ask the town this, hypothetically speaking, if I was a pro - town role, regardless of what that role was, and you guys confirmed it by lynching me, would that be enough evidence to show that it is highly unlikely Than is a vig because it would be unbalancing for town?

How can this be anything but scum fishing for a safe claim? We'll evaluate the claim

after

we know what it is, not before.

[Thanatos]

Nudude, You still say theres no RB? Well...think of it like this. They have a confirmed cop, and a confirmed random power role, that could be anything (though I breadcrumbed Vig, and with the second kill, they likely suspected it) so...what do you propose they do, exactly.

We never would have doubted VL. We all agreed that the real cop should counterclaim in that situation. Meanwhile, they have a confirmed cop, and a confirmed powerrole. Why, tell me, WHY would they think to do it the other way around. Sowing confusion, "maybe" is not worth letting the cop go free.

Having a role blocker makes perfect sense. They have very little to gain from letting a cop live, and you seem to be putting a large ammount of effort into sowing confusing about me.

On to Gorgon...I can't say I'm not pleased. Generally, his actions (though they may be distancing) make me like him, because 1. He not only agrees me on this issue, but sees the same pattern I do regarding the scum. He also has done something I don't think a scum would do (though, of course, only because I know my innocence) and that's tell people not to quick lynch me if I live tonight, which would be interesting, if, for example, Nudude comes up the Roleblocker, but Liam isn't the GF (hint hint, Infinitive) So...I feel much better about Gorgon, right now.

However, I still would like some insight into your thought process regarding this reversal.

[Thanatos]

Nudude, you posited two scum groups, both of which have RBers:

1. Scum = 1xGF 1xRB 1xOne shot assassin.

This is a powerful mafia group, but there would probably have to be another pro - town power role to offset this. Thanatos could be the one - shot assasin, say he's a blocked vig, and if the role blocker gets lynched it will lend alot of weight to his claim.


2. Scum = 1xGF 1xGoon 1xRB.

A little less powerful, but another pro - town role would probably be justified in this setup.

Further, you seem convinced that any RB in the game is a scum RB. Why?

Let me ask the town this, hypothetically speaking, if I was a pro - town role, regardless of what that role was, and you guys confirmed it by lynching me, would that be enough evidence to show that it is highly unlikely Than is a vig because it would be unbalancing for town?

How can this be anything but scum fishing for a safe claim? We'll evaluate the claim

after

we know what it is, not before.

Odd. How did I miss this? Yeah, Nudude. What are these groups?